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A Historic Opportunity
The proposed employment guarantee programme will generate
work for the poorest; it is also an opportunity to revive public
investment in agriculture, tackle the prevailing environmental crisis
that is gripping rural India and galvanise the panchayat raj
institutions. The proposed legislation should not put in place a
weak and diluted jobs programme.
MIHIR SHAH To understand the issues involved, we
need a brief theoretical interlude. Histori-
T
he National Rural Employment cally, this argument echoes the response
Guarantee Act (NREGA) proposed of the British Treasury to former premier
to be enacted during the current David Lloyd George’s suggestion of start-
winter session of parliament represents a ing public works during the years of the
historic opportunity for socio-economic Great Depression. The assumption implicit
transformation in rural India. The 1990s in such a view is that there is a fixed pool
have brought the crisis of rural India to the of savings available for investment and
fore. For the first time since independence, that an increase in public investment would
the decade witnessed a decline in per capita ‘crowd-out’ private investment. This vi-
output in Indian agriculture. Crops grown sion of the economy was challenged by
and eaten by the poorest suffered the Kahn (1931) and comprehensively demol-
greatest neglect. The per capita net avail- ished by Keynes (1936). In the Keynesian
ability of pulses declined to less than half view, savings are no longer exogenous,
of what it was in the 1950s. The rate of depending as they do on the level of in-
growth of output of coarse cereals fell to come. So long as there is a slack in the
almost zero. According to the Food and economy such that income can be raised
Agricultural Organisation, the number of through an increase in the level of public
hungry people in India increased by 19 investment, the resultant deficit would
million between 1997 and 2001. Nearly finance itself through a rise in the savings
half our children remain chronically mal- following the increase in incomes. How-
nourished. India has the highest percent- ever, with reference to underdeveloped
age of anaemic pregnant women in the economies facing a major ‘agrarian con-
world. Reports of starvation deaths and straint’, Keynesian economists themselves
suicides by farmers abound in the media. argued that the assumption of a slack in
If there was any doubt that rural India was the economy would not apply [Kalecki
crying out for change, this was firmly 1945; Rao 1952 and Dasgupta 1954]. In
dispelled by Verdict 2004. It is good to see a strict Keynesian sense, these economies
those brought to power by this verdict now could be viewed as being at a ‘full employ-
seeking to fulfil the people’s mandate by ment’ level.1 Deficit financing would nec-
enacting the NREGA legislation. essarily be inflationary in these conditions.
Following Malinvaud’s (1977) pioneer-
Argument in Economic Theory ing contribution to the theory of unem-
ployment, however, Rakshit (1989, 2004)
This, however, is not the point of view has provided a powerful theoretical reit-
of the pro-market liberalisers. For them the eration of the relevance of ‘classical
NREGA is a dangerous piece of legislation Keynesianism’ (if one may call it that!) to
that threatens to snowball India’s fiscal the Indian context. Rakshit points to the
deficit out of control. They see it in direct existence of large excess capacity in Indian
conflict with the Fiscal Responsibility Act. industry, massive increases in rates of