Experiments: In the Light of Statistical Regularity

Introduction:
The word Statistics etymologically related to the word state and has traditionally been used to
mean numerical data concerning human communities living in political unions. Folks writes that
the word was coined by the German scholar Gottfried Achenwall in mid-eighteen century. The
word appeared in the Encyclopedia Britannica only in 1797.But the science has come to
recognize statistics as the body of methods that have to do with the analysis, interpretation and,
to some extent, collections of the numerical results of experiments. The term experiment is being
used here in a perfectly general sense, to include arrantly trivial acts and also processes that
should properly be called observations.
The description of phenomena in quantitative terms has become a fashion in modern life. In the
sciences too, researchers now prefer to study the results of their investigations in quantitative,
rather than qualitative, terms. Indeed, the degree of dependence on quantitative methods has
come to be regarded as the measure of the maturity of any given science. Statistics supplies tools
for studying such results of investigations.

1.1. Statistical Experiments:

The experiments that we have in view have the special feature that each can conceivably be
repeated an infinite number of times under same conditions. This means that although the major
causes would remain unchanged from one realization of the experiment to another, there would
be super-imposed on them a multitude of uncontrolled, and mostly unknown causes of minor
nature. As to these latter causes, although each of them would play a minor role when taken
individually, they would in their joint effect make the result of the experiment liable to variation
from one realization to another. Such experiments are called Random (or Statistical)
experiments, and statistics is concerned with the results of such experiments.
Definition: A Random (or Statistical) experiment is an experiment in which:
(a) All outcomes of the experiment are known in advance.
(b) Any performance of the experiment results in an outcome that is not known in
advance.
(c) The experiment can be repeated under identical conditions.
Consider the following examples:-
• Example1.1.1: A coin is tossed. Assuming that the coin does not land on its edge, there
are two possible outcomes of the experiment: Head & Tail. On any performance of this
experiment, one does not know what the outcome will be. The coin may be tossed as
many times as desired.
• Example1.1.2: A manufacturer produces 12 inch Rulers. The experiment consists of
measuring as accurately as possible the length of a Ruler produced by the manufacturer.
Because of errors in the production process, one does not know what the true length of
the Ruler selected will be. It is clear, however, that the length will be, say, between 11
inches to 13 inches. Measurement can be repeated several times.
• Example1.1.3: The length of life of electric bulbs produced by a company is recoded. In
this case one does not know what the length of life will be for the light bulb selected, but
clearly one is aware in advance that it will be some number between zero and infinity.
1.2. Chance or Probability:
Probability or Chance is a word we often encounter in our day-today life. We often say that it is
very probable that it will rain tonight meaning thereby we very much expect to have downpour
this night. This expectation, of course, comes from our general knowledge about the conditions
of the weather in this month of the season. One may say that the chances of India & Australia
winning the next World-Cup in cricket, before the start of the game, are in the ratio 50:50
meaning thereby that one expects to see either of the teams coming out winner with equal
expectation. Again this expectation is based on the present knowledge of belief about the relative
performances of the teams.
In short, the word Probability or Chance here measures one’s degree of belief about occurrence
of certain events or truth of certain statements. This degree of belief can not be verified by
making repeated experiments under identical conditions. So the probability of this type is purely
Subjective.
Now for a Random Experiment, since an outcome is affected by a large number of uncontrolled
causes, it might be impossible to formulate a law regarding the outcome. Actually, however, is
impossible so far as we confine ourselves to deterministic framework. For, although, the
outcome of any particular realization is unpredictable, it is possible to make fairly precise
predictions when a large number of realizations are considered.
It is the Statistician’s job to formulate in the light of his knowledge concerning a field of enquiry,
a method of describing the underlying probability law.

1.3. Probability in Objective sense:

If a symmetric coin (no asymmetry in physical properties like distribution of weight, material
between two sides is allowed) is tossed, our belief is that both faces have the same chance of
occurrence. We say Head and Tail are equally likely. The both faces having same chance of
occurrence can be objectively verified.
If we repeat the experiment a large number of times (say 100, 200, 500 times) under identical
conditions we will notice on an average 50% of the results are Heads and 50% are Tails. This
type of probability is termed as Objective probability.
The objective probability is very much a property of an experiment as volume, mass and
temperature are properties of a substance. The development of this subject took an important turn
with the works of Tchebyshev (1821-18940), A. Markov (1856-1922) and A. Liapounov (1858-
1918). The fundamental definition of probability which was accepted in the earlier period
remained the classical definition until the recent times Mathematicians like S. Bernstein, A.
Khintchin and A. Kolmogorov developed axiomatic formulations providing important extensions
and generalization of the earlier results.

1.4. Statistical Regularity:

Although, as noted earlier, the result of a single random experiment can never be correctly
predicted before conducting the experiment, if the random experiment is carried out a large
number of times under identical conditions it will be seen that the Relative Frequency (R.F) of an
event stabilizes to a certain value.
The Relative Frequency (R.F) of an outcome, O (say), of an experiment is the number of time O
occurs, fN(O), divided by the total number of times, N, the experiment is carried out.
So, the Relative Frequency (R.F) of an outcome O is:
f (O )
rN (O) = N ; clearly 0 ≤ rN (O) ≤ 1
N

It is seen that when the experiment is repeated indefinitely, rN(O) tends to a certain value, p (say);
where 0≤p≤1. The fact is justified in the following experiments:
• Experiment 1.4.1: A coin was tossed several times and the no. of times it fell Heads was
noted. The following table shows the no. of Heads (H) obtained in sets of N experiments.
Table: 1.1
Set N=
1 50 100
0
1 4 29 47
2 4 22 52
3 6 24 54
4 7 27 49
5 5 31 53
6 5 26 51
7 3 25 48
8 7 28 52
9 5 21 47
10 6 23 55
Total 5 25 508
2 6

(i) For N=10, Relative Frequency (R.F), r(H) varies from 0.3 to 0.7.
(ii) For n=50, extreme values of r(H) become closer being 0.42 & 0.62.
(iii) For N=100, r(H) varies between 0.47 & 0.55.
The average values of r(H) were 0.520, 0.512, 0.508 for N= 10, 50 ,100, respectively. Thus one
may conclude that as N increases Relative Frequency of H will be expected to be very close to
0.50.
• Experiment1.4.2: The following data have been taken from Kerrich. A coin was tossed
10,000 times. The following table shows n, the no. of spins made; m, the no of Heads in n
spins.

Table: 1.2
n m n m n m
10 4 900 458 4000 2024
20 10 1 502 4200 2135
000
30 17 1 596 4400 2242
200
40 21 1 704 4600 2346
400
50 25 1 810 4800 2447
600
75 34 1 918 5000 2533
800
10 44 2 1 5500 2772
 0 000 013
15 71 2 1122 6000 3009
0 200
20 98 2 1 6500 3245
0 400 220
25 12 2 1 7000 3516
0 5 600 316
30 14 2 1 7500 3780
0 6 800 409
40 19 3 1 8000 4034
0 9 000 510
50 25 3 1 8500 4284
0 5 200 609
60 31 3 1 9000 4538
0 2 400 722
70 36 3 1 9500 4803
0 8 600 826
80 41 3 1 1000 5067
0 3 800 926 0

We find that the ratio m/n fluctuates in value and at first the fluctuations are large.
For the value of n noted,
(i) The fluctuation is between 0.400 & 0.567 up to n=100.
(ii) The fluctuation is between 0.473 & 0.526 between n=150 and 1000.
(iii) The fluctuation is between 0.499 & 0.507 between n=5000 and 10000.
The decrease in fluctuation in the values of m/n was very rapid in the region of increasing values
of n and the ratio was found to be increasingly closer to 0.5 with increasing n.

Concluding Remark:
In al the above examples sited, is seen that the Relative Frequency stabilizes to a specific value at
a fairly definite rates as the number of trials increases. The constant value may be called the
long-term relative frequency of the outcome. The only condition required for the stability
property is that the experiment must be conducted under identical conditions.
Another thing to be noted that the experiment must be repeated a large no of times. A statistical
regularity property of relative frequency is an empirical deduction based on millions of
observations.
Anyway, in practice, it is a rare situation when any particular experiment is repeated for a
purpose. Any inquisitive mind may evoke the questions:
• What will happen to the statistical regularity if the experiment is not feasible of
repetition?
• How large is actually a large number?
• Will statistical regularity break if any one of the identical conditions is violated for any
experiment?
These are the million dollar questions that should be answered in a proper way, and there should
not remain any ambiguity in the search of the answers.
Reference:
1. Kerrich,J.E: An experimental Introduction to the Theory of Probability, Kimar Munksguard,
Copenhagen (1946).
2. Mahalanobis,P.C: “Why Statistics?”, Sankhya 10 (1950).
3. Bronowski,J: The Common Sense of Science, Heinemann (1951), & Penguin Books (1960).
4. Fisher,R.A: Statistical Methods for Research, Oliver & Boyd (1954).
5. Berttlet,M.S: Essay on Probability and Statistics, Methuen (1962).
6. Hoel, Port, Stone: Introduction to Probability Theory, Houghton Miffin Company (1971).
7. Tanur,J.m et al (ed.): Statistics: A Guide to Unknown, Holden-Dey, (1972).
8. Folks, J.L: Ideas of Statistics (Lecture 1), John Wiley (1981).