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Investment merits
Genting Hong Kong Limited (GenHK) was formerly known as Star Cruises Limited.
The new name was adopted in October 2009 to reflect the company’s focus – as
part of the overall strategy of the Genting Group – to become a global leisure,
gaming, entertainment and hospitality enterprise, with both land and sea-based
business.
A gaming-focused strategy
The most exciting part of GenHK’s business comes from its 50%-owned associate,
Travellers International Hotel Group, which holds a licence to operate casinos in
the Philippines. Resorts World Manila (RWM) marks the first land-based foray for
GenHK. Since its opening in August 2009, the gaming-cum-entertainment resort
has attracted an ever-increasing number of visitors. Travellers has the first-mover
advantage in launching the first integrated resort in the Philippines. Its second
integrated resort, Resorts World Bayshore City (RWB), could open in 2013-14.
Combined, the revenue potential from these two facilities could be in the region
of multi-billion-dollars a year, assuming the licence is operating at full capacity.
In the black after four consecutive years of losses; initiate with BUY
Through effective cost-cutting, sale and redistribution of assets and capital
restructuring, GenHK now has a stronger balance sheet. We also expect FY10 to
be the first year the company turns in a net profit after four consecutive years of
net losses. We value the stock using a SOTP methodology, deriving a target price
of US$0.54. Our target price implies an upside of 37.3%. Initiate with BUY.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 1: GenHK – net profit, FY05-1H10 Figure 2: GenHK – share price performance
US$ m US$
40 0.60
20
0.50 0.575
0
-20 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 1H10 0.40
-40
0.30
-60
-80 0.20
-100
0.10
-120
-140
NCL deconsolidated 0.06
0.00
from FY08 onwards
-160
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
-0.10
-180
-200
-220
Figure 3: Genting Group – share price performance Figure 4: Increasing EBT contribution from
from Jan 2010 Travellers
Index
(Jan 10 = 100) US$ m
220 300
GENT
200 GENS 250
180 GENM 125
200
GENHK
160 GENP 87
150 71
140
100 94
120 72 76
50 40
100 9 41 54
1 24 27 32
0 5
80 -45
-50 FY08 FY09
-3 FY10F FY11F FY12F FY13F
60 -104
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
-100
Star Cruises NCL Travellers
-150
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
In Asia, the penetration rate for gaming is known to be low, despite the region
having some of the largest populations in the world. Additionally, Asian wealth is
improving rapidly with strong GDP growth potential and increasing per capita
spending. This is aided by strong tourist arrivals in the region. Put another way,
Asia has the greatest capacity for growth and GenHK is in the right place at the
right time. According to the report, Playing to Win, by PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PwC), a global professional services firm, Asia Pacific’s share of the gaming
market is estimated to almost double from 22% in 2009 to 41% in 2014.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 6: GDP growth rates for Asian countries Figure 7: Selected gaming market size
2010 (%) 2011 (%)
Japan 4.2 1.5 Est. mkt size (US$m) 2011-14
Country/Region
China 10.3 9.0 2010 2014 CAGR (%)
Hong Kong 6.6 4.7 Nevada (incl. Las Vegas) 9,950 12,500 5.9
India 9.1 9.0
Atlantic City 3,550 3,350 (1.4)
Indonesia 5.9 6.0
Malaysia 6.8 4.3 Macau 22,445 45,149 29.1
Singapore 14.8 4.1 Singapore 2,750 8,318 31.9
South Korea 6.1 3.9
The Philippines 607 1,215 18.9
Taiwan 10.1 3.3
Thailand 7.0 4.3 Vietnam 81 139 14.5
The Philippines 6.9 5.4 Malaysia 920 1,089 4.3
Vietnam 6.8 6.9
Source: The Economist Source: PwC report “Playing
g to Win”, Kim Eng estimates
Figure 8: Regional share of gaming market, 2009 Figure 9: Regional share of gaming market, 2014
Latin Canada Latin Canada
America 4% America 3%
0% 0%
US
Asia Pacific
43%
22% Asia Pacific
US
41%
57%
EMEA
17%
EMEA
13%
Source: PwC report “Playing to Win” Source: PwC report “Playing to Win”
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
PAGCOR operates about 13 casinos in the Philippines with four of them in Metro
Manila. It also has another 25 exclusive clubs. PAGCOR is now leading a multi-
billion-dollar Vegas-styled casino and entertainment city project at the Manila
Bay area. Media reports suggested that it could be considering consolidating its
position and relinquishing its operator status to become more of a regulator
eventually.
First-mover advantage
Travellers is one of the provisional licence holders for one of the four new
casinos. The others are Universal Entertainment Corp, Belle Corp and Bloombury
Investments. Having already set up RWM, Travellers has the first-mover
advantage in operating integrated resorts in the Philippines. Additionally,
management has revealed that Travellers is well ahead of the other licence
holders in terms of construction progress at the new integrated city.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 12: Provisional licence holders of Manila Bay Integrated City project
Licence holder Operating partners Name of project Plans
Travellers International 50%-owned by GenHK and Resorts World Bayshore City Theme park
50% by Alliance Global Hotels
Casino
Museum
Universal Entertainment Known for its ties with Okada Resort Manila Bay Casino
Corp (previously known Wynn Resort in Las Vegas 2,000 hotel rooms
as Azure Corp), a and Macau 300 VIP suites
leading Japanese World’s largest oceanarium
gaming machine maker Theatres
Sports arena
Museum
Giant ferris wheel
Belle Corp Partly owned by SM The Belle Grande Manila Bay Target soft opening by 4Q11
Investment Corp, a 17,600-sq-m casino
Philippine shopping (~150 tables, 1,500 slots)
mall giant Hotels
Theatre
Bloombury Investments Linked to businessman n.a. Target opening by 4Q12
Enrique K. Razon Jr (head 20,000-sq-m casino
of multinational port (~200 tables, 1,200 slots)
operator, Int’l Container Meeting and convention rooms
Terminal Services Inc.) who Health and wellness facilities
acquired controlling stake
from Jose CH Alvarez
Source: Company data, media reports
Note: The PAGCOR observation tower has been scrapped from the overall plan. Source: Web sources
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
However, Travellers has the licence to operate up to 2,000 tables and 7,000 slots
in the two sites, RWM and Resorts World Bayshore City (RWB). When fully
utilised, it could be a US$3b-a-year business with EBITDA of US$1.2b. Applying an
EV/EBITDA multiple of 13x, the attributable value to GenHK from Travellers alone
could be as much as US$0.56 per share in this case. However, our actual forecasts
are more conservative, in which we value Travellers at US$0.25 per share (See
Page 22 and Figures 36 – 39).
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
As early as 2007, GenHK took the first step into Macau by acquiring a 75%
interest in Macau Land Investment Corporation (MLIC) together with Genting
International. The reason: MLIC owns a piece of land, about 8,100 sq m in area,
which could be developed. However, new developments in the territory are
currently stalled as the government has announced a cap on the number of
gaming tables at 5,500 until 2013 and will not accept any new casino application
during this period.
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Figure 15: Cruise passenger growth, 1980-2010 Figure 16: Top 10 cruise destinations for 2011
1 Caribbean and Bahamas
2 Alaska
3 The Mediterranean
4 Europe
5 Hawaii
6 Panama Canal
7 European Rivers
8 Bermuda
9 Canada and New England
10 Mexico and US West Coast
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 17: Top 10 largest North American cruise lines and planned expansion
Planned berths
Cruise line
li Current berths Ships up to 2012 % addition
Royal Caribbean Cruise 61,888 22 0 0%
Carnival Corporation 54,602 22 7,342 13%
Princess 37,220 17 -710 -2%
Costa 30,785 15 6,024 20%
Norwegian Cruise Line* 26,346 11 0 0%
MSC 24,358 11 5,100 21%
Holland 23,493 15 0 0%
Celebrity 20,068 10 3,830 19%
Cunard 6,712 3 0 0%
Hurtigruten 5,923 13 0 0%
*NCL has plans to add 4,000 berths each in 2013 and 2014. Source: CLIA
Figure 18: 2011 North American cruise market share Figure 19: 2011 rest-of-world
world cruise
cruis market share
Disney Other Louis Other
3.3% 4.8%
NCL 1.7% 6.4%
Disney 7.7%
MSC 1.9%
NCL
1.6%
9.8% MSC
5.1%
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
-200
-300
Revenue EBITDA Net Income
14
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
170
160
150
140
130
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NCL CCL RCL
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Figure 23: Snapshot of Star Cruises’ and NCL’s FY09 revenue breakdown
Star Cruises US$ m NCL US$ m
Total Revenue 377 100% Total Revenue 1,855 100%
Passenger ticket revenue 95 25% Passenger ticket 1,276 69%
Onboard and other revenues 32 8% Onboard and Other 579 31%
Gaming revenue 219 58%
Charter hire and others 31 8%
Source: Company data
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 24: Cruise penetration rate Figure 25: Global cruise sales
Region Penetration rate Region 2009 value (US$ m) % market share
In October 2009, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Silversea, Costa Cruises and Star
Cruises signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to promote the
development, professional growth and commercial success of the cruise industry
in Asia. And ACTA was formed recently with the aim to develop Asia into a cruise
hub. Investment in port infrastructure is important to facilitate the delivery of
services and to compete with the well-established North American and Caribbean
markets.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Financials
Not-so-straightforward comparison
Comparing the historical financials of GenHK is no straightforward task. This is
because prior to FY08, NCL was a subsidiary and its financials were consolidated
with Star Cruises’. However, NCL ceased to be a subsidiary from FY08 and its
results have subsequently been reported at the associate level. In addition, due
to the nature of the cruise business, depreciation charges are high and EBITDA is
therefore an important measure to examine.
Figure 27: EBITDA vs net profit Figure 28: EBITDA margin vs net profit margin
US$ m 70%
400
60%
300 50%
200 40%
30%
100
20%
0 10%
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Figure 30: Decreasing gearing Figure 31: Improving net cash flows
2.0 US$ m
800
1.8 Operating Cashflow
1.6 600 Investing Cashflow
1.4 400 Financing Cashflow
Net Cashflow
1.2
200
1.0
0.8 0
0.6 -200 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F FY13F
0.4
-400
0.2
0.0 -600
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F FY13F -800
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
NCL’s revenue would also increase from a capacity boost when its new cruise
ships come into operation in 2013 and 2014. Margin expansion should follow
with EBITDA margins likely to post an improvement to 22-23% eventually. Star
Cruises’ margins would also be enhanced as it redeploys its assets to maximise
utilisation and garner more gaming revenue.
As for Travellers, we believe RWM would continue to deliver positive results with
EBITDA margins at close to 40% level. The action will get bigger when RWB starts
operation in 2013-14. However, we have been conservative in our forecasts in
deriving our current valuation of US$0.25 per share for Travellers. Our forecasts
assume 450 tables and 2,800 slots by 2013, growing to 1,000 tables and 4,000
slots by 2017 which is slightly more than half of its full potential. We also
performed a scenario analysis based on different assumptions in the number of
tables and slots and its effects on our DCF value of Travellers (Figure 39). Our
base case key assumptions and forecasts are presented in Figure 33.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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In our view, positive developments that will drive the value of the stock include:
1. Growing involvement in the gaming business through RWM and the
upcoming RWB.
2. Improving business of NCL, with capacity expansion underway.
3. Impending listing of NCL.
4. Growth of the Asian cruise industry.
5. Successful restructuring of GenHK with improved balance sheet strength.
We value Star Cruises, its Asian cruise business, based on 13x FY11F EV/EBITDA,
which is a premium to peer cruise lines. We believe this is justified given the high
level of gaming content in its business vis-à-vis its counterparts.
For NCL, we peg our valuation to its peer and value it at 10x FY11F EV/EBITDA.
Capacity expansion from the addition of two new ships will increase its EBITDA
substantially, although this will not be visible until 2013 and 2014 when the ships
become operational.
Our SOTP valuation model yields a fair value of US$0.54 per share using our base
case assumption, translating to an upside potential of 37.3% from its current
share price. The implied adjusted FY11F EV/EBITDA is 13.0x, which is
undemanding in our opinion, given the growth potential of GenHK. We initiate
coverage with a BUY recommendation.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Genting Hong Kong Ltd USD 3.1 0.395 27.8 31.4 30.4 17.2 1.6 31.0
Source: Bloomberg
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Key Assumptions
Discount Rate 8.8%
Terminal Growth Rate 3.0%
Source: Kim Eng estimates
26
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Risks
Change in consumer travel preferences and patterns
The appeal of cruises lies in the ability of the cruise operator to innovate its
products to suit consumer preferences. If other more attractive travel
alternatives were to emerge, GenHK’s cruise business could be affected. That
said, travel preferences also hinge on individual tastes and perception and these
factors are not controllable because travel patterns are constantly evolving.
Government policies
Casino operations are heavily regulated. Being able to secure a licence is as
important as understanding the tax regime under which the casino will operate.
Regulation on casino operations, for example, junket operations, may also have
an impact on earnings. There is also a need to address and tackle social problems
that may arise from gambling addiction.
27
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Company profile
Genting Hong Kong (GenHK) is in the leisure, entertainment and hospitality
business. It was incorporated in September 1993 and was formerly known as Star
Cruises Limited. It operates luxury cruises and cruise-related activities under the
Star Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) brands. The company owns an
operating fleet of 15 ships, cruising to over 200 destinations worldwide. Star
Cruises and NCL combined stand as the third-largest cruise operator in the world.
In addition, GenHK recently ventured into land-based activities through Resorts
World Manila (RWM).
GenHK is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and is traded on the Quotation
and Execution System for Trading of the Singapore Exchange.
Star Cruises
A 100%-owned subsidiary, Star Cruises owns a fleet of eight ships. Three are laid-
up and could be sold, while a fourth is on charter to NCL. The rest are operating
ships. Star Cruises offers cruise itineraries to various regions in the Asia Pacific,
including Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand. Its cruises have a
strong tinge of gaming, which generates almost 60% of its revenue. In
comparison, a normal cruise operator like NCL, its associate, derives 70% of its
revenue from passenger ticket sales.
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
29
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Genting Berhad
Star Cruises My Inn (Hangzhou) Hotel Co Ltd Suzhou Trip-X Info Tech Co Ltd
(100%) (100%) (100%)
NCL Corporation Suzhou My Inn Hotel Co Ltd Genting Star (Shanghai) Edu
(50%) (100%) Information Consulting Co (100%)
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
Key management
Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Tan Sri Lim has been with GenHK since the company was formed in 1993. He is
also the Executive Chairman of Genting Singapore, Chairman and Chief Executive
of Genting Berhad, Chairman and Chief Executive of Genting Malaysia and a
director and Chief Executive of Genting Plantations. He and his family own about
39.6% of the Genting Group and also 60.4% in GenHK. Tan Sri Lim was involved in
the development of many of the resorts under the Genting Group. He holds a
Bachelor of Science (Civil Engineering) degree from the University of London and
also attended the Program for Management Development at the Harvard
Graduate School of Business.
31
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
32
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33
Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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Genting Hong Kong 14 March 2011
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