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The US wireless market has seen an explosion of “magnet” handsets, typically sold through
operator exclusives. Most are smartphones or “smartphone‐like”. Many, but not all, have
touch screens Below are major releases (not exhaustive)
touch screens. Below are major releases (not exhaustive)
2009
HTC Samsung
iPhone 3Gs Blackberry Tour HTC Ozone Palm Pre (Sprint;
MyTouch 3G Memoir
(Sprint/ VZW) (Sprint / VZW) VZW 2010)
2008
Blackberry HTC Touch
HTC G (D
HTC G1 (Dream)
) Bl kb
Blackberry Storm
St
iPhone 3G Bold Diamond Samsung Instinct
(Sprint, VZW)
0 Backgrounder
Why Operators Want “Magnet” Handsets
The left chart below shows AT&T’s new contract (excludes prepaid) subscribers per quarter
and those that came to AT&T for the iPhone. Over 50% of AT&T’s Net Contracts Adds for the
p y
past year came to AT&T for the iPhone.
The right chart shows T‐Mobile USA’s Net Adds for 6 months versus G1 sales. G1 sales offset
high churn of other contract subscribers.
Units: mm Units: mm
1.8 1.2
1.6
1
1.4
1.2 0.8
1
0.6
0.8 1.7
1
0.6 1.3 1.2 0.4
0.74
74
0.96 0.9
0.4 0.76 0.8 0.5
0.64 0.2
0.2
0 0
Q3‐2008
Q3 Q4‐2008
Q4 Q1‐2009
Q 9 Q2‐2009
Q 9 10/2008 ‐ 03/2009
AT&T, Deutsche Telekom filings
1 Backgrounder
Today’s Smartphones are Consumer‐Centric
20 40% Source: RIM filings. RIM
fiscal year 2009 ended in
15 30% February 2009.
Subscribers refers to
10 20%
Blackberry Internet Service
5 10% users, not devices shipped
0 0%
2007 2008 2009
2 Backgrounder
Today’s Smartphones are Consumer‐Centric (2)
The iPhone, while “closed” in some regards, brings configurability and a sense of play
Apple started with an immense headstart through the iTunes install base enabling easy
d
distribution and monetization, plus developer familiarity with the Mac OS
b d l d l f l h h
The iPhone / iPod Touch developer ecosystem ensures a unique experience and ensures
loyalty to the handset / OS
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 Source: 148Apps
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
App Store Submissions Active Applications
3 Backgrounder
Magnet Handsets: My Gain is Your Loss
Verizon Wireless churn still lowest in US wireless industry, but has increased with
release of first (EDGE) and second (UMTS) iPhone from AT&T
A 0.2% increase in churn means 500,000 customer defections over one quarter
A 1% drop in operating margin means $600M less in operating profit
3Gs iPhone
2G iPhone 3G iPhone
1.60% (J
(June 19, 2009)
19 2009) 35.0% 2G iPhone
(June 29, 2007) (July 11, 2008)
1.50%
34.0% (June 29, 2007)
1.40%
1.30% 33.0%
1.20%
32.0%
1.10% 3G iPhone
3G iPhone
1.00% 31.0%
0.90% 30.0% (July 11, 2008)
0.80%
0.70% 29.0%
0.60% 28.0%
4 Backgrounder
Smartphone Benefits & Risks
Smartphones present both opportunities and risks for wireless operators
O
Operator Opportunity
O i O
Operator Risk
ik
Richer subscriber Magnet Handsets Handset/OS‐specific benefits
experience create loyalty to handset/OS,
Differentiated “magnet”
Differentiated magnet not carrier
offering Many benefits are portable
High ARPU plans and (e.g. Blackberry OS on all
services operators)
Rich Data Services Uptake in rich data services
Highly “sticky” (addictive)
handsets and services causes network burden (T‐
Mobile G1 data 50x typical,
Easier application port iPhone >10X typical for
Greater application scale AT&T)
(developers develop to OS Handset/OS application
platform, not carrier) After-Sale Applications
stores can compete with
More focused OS pool =
More focused OS pool = carrier offerings
carrier offerings
lower QA
5 Backgrounder