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2. Should the conflict be settled under the auspices of ASEAN or the United Nations?
If the two parties decide to bring the issue to the United Nations, will this be a slap
on the face of ASEAN?
ANSWER: The Thai‐Cambodia border conflict has not yet risen to a threat to
international peace and security, which generally triggers UN Security Council
intervention. The UN Charter makes provision for the role of regional organizations
and the Security Council already has endorsed ASEAN’s lead in this matter. ASEAN
must report back on its actions and receive endorsement. In this sense the UN will
maintain a watching brief. It is only if the situation seriously deteriorates that more
extensive UN intervention is likely.
It is highly unlikely that Thailand will agree to UN intervention. Thailand insists that
the matter be resolved bilaterally. If Thailand rejected ASEAN’s role outright, this
would be a real slap in the face for this regional organization. But so far Thailand has
continued to work with Indonesia as ASEAN Chair.
3. What are ASEAN's limitations? Is the grouping being restricted in its efforts to
mediate by its policy of non‐interference in the domestic affairs of members?
ANSWER: The Thai‐Cambodia border dispute is a test case for ASEAN in the post‐
ASEAN Charter era with its provisions for a dispute settlement mechanism. What
ASEAN does now will impact on its role in dispute settlement among its members for
a long time to come. ASEAN can only intervene with the consent of both parties
however. ASEAN’s principle of non‐intervention is not absolute, there is growing
recognition that if an internal conflict spills over and affects regional security then
ASEAN can be involved. In this case it is a dispute between members. ASEAN has to
walk on egg shells not to be seen as interfering in the internal affairs of member
states. ASEAN is limited to exerting political and moral pressure through the ASEAN
Chair and by peer pressure from it members. In this case ASEAN is somewhat
hobbled by the fact that its Secretary General, Surin Pitsuwan, is a Thai national and
his role in the past has been rejected by Cambodia. But Indonesia’s Foreign
Ministers, as ASEAN Chair, has taken the lead and put not only his but his country’s
prestige at stake.
4. Is it crucial for the fighting to end before the ASEAN summit in Jakarta in May 7
and 8? Do you think this will be a key issue during the summit?
ANSWER: It is highly desirable that Thailand and Cambodia cease hostilities or reach
an agreement on a cease‐fire prior to the ASEAN Summit but it is not crucial. The
Thai‐Cambodia border dispute is not on ASEAN’s formal agenda. Prime Minister Hun
Sen has declared he will raise this issue. Quite clearly ASEAN will discuss this dispute,
also there will be discussions on the sidelines. This issue will be key in the sense that
it is an unwanted distraction from ASEAN’s normal business, impacts on ASEAN’s
prestige, and affects the image of Southeast Asia as a peaceful and developing
region.
It is my assessment that pressures from the ASEAN Chair, key ASEAN members and
the international community will result in a cessation of hostility along the Thai‐
Cambodia border and the stationing of neutral observers from Indonesia. Four sites
in Thailand and three in Cambodia have already been identified. A cessation of
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hostilities can then be firmed up by further negotiations between the Thai and
Cambodian Joint Border Committee and their respective Defence Ministers.
Indonesia, as ASEAN Chair, can observe and facilitate where appropriate.
Agreeing to the border line and demarcating the border will be a process that is
likely to take a decade or longer if the Sino‐Vietnamese border agreement and
demarcation process is anything to go by. Immediate priority must be given to the
4.6 square kilometers of land around Preah Vihear Temple and Cambodia’s
implementation of a management plan for Preah Vihear Temple as a World Heritage
site.
The main obstacle at present is the Thai domestic situation and whether or not
political groups will continue to use the border dispute with Cambodia as a political
football.