WE ARE AGAIN WAITING FOR A DISASTROUS

EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHERN AREAS OF

PAKISTAN

After the earthquake of October 8, 2005, most of the

people are thinking about motion of tectonic plates,
release of sub surface energy, divergence and
convergence of plate boundaries and many other criteria,
which cause the happening of an earthquake.
While we are discussing any earthquake of the world,
there arise many questions regarding it. But two things
are of much importance in the happening of earthquake,
which gives us an idea about the amount of energy,
accumulated inside the earth. They are “Pre shocks” and
“After shocks”.
Energy is produced due to the presence of radioactive
elements in the crustal and mantle region of the earth. As
these radioactive elements try to stabilize themselves, a
chain reaction series is produced with the release of
energy in addition, which causes melting of lithosphere,
disturbing the internal conditions of earth.
As this energy fills the chambers of earth, it tries to move
up towards the earth surface through weaker zones,
producing or activating an existing fault. When this
energy rushes towards the earth surface in a smaller
amount, it causes the sudden vibration of earth. As more
and more energy is released, it widens the weaker zone.
So a maximum amount of energy follows this smaller
release and causes a major earthquake. After the
occurrence of this major quake, the remaining energy
again slowly starts to release out to re-stabilize the
position of tectonic plates.
Following is given the diagrammatic conditions of energy
release.

So when this remaining energy release out, it again

causes the minor shacking of the earth.
Pre-shocks are considered as more effective criteria for
the prediction of a major upcoming earthquake.
As the intensity of pre-shock increases by an average
amount in the same area, so we can conclude that a
major earthquake is following these shocks.
Now as we are looking at the past few months, it is
observed that there occurred five to six minor
earthquakes till now in the northern areas of Pakistan
including Kohistan, Chitral, Mansehra, Balakot, Azad
Kashmir, Kaghan as well as along Pak-Afghan boundary in
Hindukush range.
When we study the tectonic map of Pakistan, this is the
area with high tectonic relief. As two major tectonic
plates (Indian and Eurasian) collides in this zone, Major
faults like Main boundary thrust (MBT), their splays,
Hazara-Kashmir syntexis and many other tectonic
features covers this large area in the form of an arc,
ranging from south-west of Pakistan (approaching the
Chaman strike slip fault) to north-eastern zone of the
country.
As all the recent minor earthquakes were happened in
this area in the range of 4.0 to 6.0 magnitudes. So it
gives a clue that there is possibility of a major earthquake
event happening within some years (not exactly
predictable) in the northern areas of Pakistan.

(May Allah bless us all with His mercy, and protect us

from such type of catastrophic disasters. Ameen)

Syed Junaid shah (MS Scholar)

National center of excellence in Geology,
University of Peshawar (Pakistan)
geoajk@hotmail.com
+92-333-6414-008