Professional Documents
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3 Cause-and-Effect Fallacies
3 common fallacies rest on assumed cause-effect connections.
a) False Cause – which results when the cause cited is
either irrelevant to the effect or is so remote, so far back
in time, that its link with the present is only tenuous at
best.
e.g. 1
“During the 1992 election, President George Bush took credit for
playing decisive role in the breakup of the Soviet Union. His
opponent, Bill Clnton, responded, “Mr Bush’s taking credit for the
breakup of the Soviet Union is like the rooster’s taking credit for
the dawn.”
e.g 2
“American essayist Calvin Trillin observed facetiously that the Gulf
War finally ended when President Bush learned to pronounce Iraqi
president Saddam Hussein’s name correctly.”
e.g. 3
“I knew I should have cancelled my tennis match today. My
astrological forecast warned me not to engage in anything
competitive. No wonder I lost.”
e.g. 4
“It is obvious that Sam Anderson would grow up to be an ax murderer.
According to an interview I read, he was subjected to a rigid toilet-
training regime when he was a toddler.”
c) Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc – which in Latin means “after this,
therefore because of this.”[taking what are mere coincidences
to be the causes].
- It suggests that, because event B occurred after event A,
event A caused event B. It assumes that because two events
occur close together in time, the first must cause the second.
The cause-and-effect relationship is based on a coincidence
whereby one event is assumed to have caused a second one.
- This fallacy normally follows the following thinking
pattern: X precedes Y
Therefore X causes Y
e.g. 1
Thus a man may say,
“Soon after I saw Jane, I had severe stomach ache.
Jane must have caused my trouble and she must be a witch.”
e.g. 2
If you break out in hives after eating jalapeno peppers for the first
time, you might logically connect the two events. But the hives may
have been caused by something different – an allergic reaction to
something else you ate or to something in the environment, contact
with a plant, even stress. To form a good inductive argument, you
would have to eat jalapeno peppers tow or three more times and break
out in hives each time before you could conclusively connect the two.
e.g. 3
Frank may notice that after he changed from cologne A to cologne B,
Susie started paying attention to him. He might then conclude that
the change to the new cologne is what caused Susie to have an
interest in him. But in fact, the two events may have no causal
connection at all; it may be that she noticed him for the first time
because when she recently dumped her old boyfriend, Frank was sitting
across the table from her.
e.g. 4
The Post Hoc fallacy accounts, which focuses on the time dimension of
one thing following another, is the source of many of superstitions.
[a] “Poor John! He walked under a ladder this morning, and at noon
he met with an accident. It’s unlucky to walk under a ladder.”
- If you walk under a ladder and are hit by a bus 10
minutes later, it would be fallacious to argue that the
accident occurred because you were foolish enough to defy
the superstition of walking under a ladder.
[b] A broken mirror does not mean that seven years of bad luck will
ensue.
[c] Stepping on cracks in the sidewalk will not break your mother’s
back.
[d] How many times have you played a game with a pair of dice, and
the rolls were not going your way? So you blew on the dice,
and, wonder of wonders, the number you needed came up. So what
did you do the next time you rolled? My guess is that you blew
on the dice again – and hence committed the fallacy!
e.g. 5
Certain causation cannot be so simply irrationally determined.
- Night follows day but night is not caused by day.
- Similarly, lightning does not caue thunder even though it
flashes before the thunder roars.
Yet many people commit this fallacy unconsciously, and crooked
thinkers who use this trick find as they do with other tricks, a lot
of simple-minded victims.
5 Ad Populum
An attempt to appeal “to the people” and their presumed common values
an emotions may be another diversionary tactic designed to advance or
oppose arguments unfairly.
This tactic often uses what are called “God-words” (pro-, help,
family, etc.) and “Devil-words” (anti-, greed, mean-spirited, etc.)
e.g. 1
Think of an erring politician who says,
“Americans are a generous people who hold no grudges, and I am sure
they will forgive me!”
e.g. 2
In “Offering Euthanasia Can Be an Act of Love”, Derek Humphry implies
that opponents who compare mercy killing to Nazi exterminators are
guilty of using both a faulty analogy and an argument ad populum.
7 Straw Man
A type of informal fallacy committed by any argument where the view
of an opponent is misrepresented so that it becomes vulnerable to
certain objections.
The distorted view may consist of a statement or a group of
related statements (i.e., a position or a theory).
Typically, the straw-man argument ascribes to an opponent some
views that are in fact a distortion of his actual views. These
misrepresentations may be extreme, irresponsible, or even silly
views that are easy to defeat.
The opponent’s position, then, becomes a “straw figure” that can
be easily blown away.
But to refute that position is, of course, not at all to disprove
the person’s actual position.
This can be seen in the Box below which outlines what’s going on
in straw man arguments.
What’s Going On in a Straw Man Argument?
1. A straw man argument attempts to raise an objection O against
a certain
view, call it V.
2. But the argument misrepresents V as being in fact W, where W
is vulnerable to the objection O.
3. The argument concludes by rejecting V on the basis of O.
But does O really undermine V? It seems not. After all, O is an
5
objection only to W, a distorted rendering of V, not to V itself.
e.g. Imagine two rival political candidates, one of whom is trying
to undermine the credibility of the other by arguing
1. My opponent’s international policy is: Wait for foreign
permission before acting.
2. Waiting for foreign permission before acting is inconsistent
with promoting our national security and our right to act in
our own self-interest.
3. Both promoting our national security and our right to act in
our own self-interest are reasonable.
4. My opponent’s international policy is unreasonable.
Suppose that there is, in fact, no evidence that the opponent
actually holds the view ascribed to her in the first premise; then
what? = a straw man argument