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FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK - Defined as risk which affects The future cash flow/ profits of an organization due
to fluctuations in exchange rate.
Suppose you want to purchase 1 US Dollar, for that you will have to pay 45 Indian Rupees. Why is it so ? Why not
$1= Re.1? or how come the rate of Exchange of $1 =Rs. 45 ? The rate of exchange is decided by the fiat
(i.e. Government) in a fixed rate regime and by demand and supply for the two currencies in the foreign exchange
market in a floating rate regime. Now the demand and supply is the outcome of the combined effect of multiple
factors constantly at play. Some of the major factors are as follows:
1) Balance of payments: Balance of payments represents the demand for and supply of foreign currencies.
the demand for foreign currency is more than its supply then the domestic currency will depreciate and
foreign currency will appreciate. It means more units of domestic currency will have to be paid for the purpose of
purchase of single unit of foreign currency.
3) Interest rates: If interest rate increases in the country then the domestic investors will not invest
foreign countries. At the same time it will attract foreign investors to invest their money. As
a result of this demand for home currency will increase and ultimately home currency will appreciate as compared
to foreign currency.
4) National Income: Increase in national income means increase in living standards of the residents of
country, means increase in consumption. But if the production doesn’t increase in the same proportion
will lead to increased imports. And if imports increases it will depreciate the home currency.
5) Resource Discoveries: If a country is able to discover key resource its currency gains value.
1.OVER THE COUNTER (OTC) MARKET - The participants in Forex Market deal among then directly without any
intervention of any exchange or a clearing house.
2.24 HOURS MARKET - It starts when a business day opens in Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong Singapore and then
moves to Middle East to Europe to New York and back to Australia Bahrain and Gulf market also operates on
Saturday and Sunday. Hence this market rename open seven days in a week and 24 hours a day.
EMU Euro €
Greece Drachma Dr
Iran Rial RI
Japan Yen ¥
Malaysia Ringitt MR
Mexico Peso Ps
Singapore Dollar SD
USA Dollar $
A direct quote is a quote where the exchange rate is expressed in terms of number of units of the domestic currency
perunit of foreign currency. Therefore, when we say $1 = 42.50/- , we are expressing one unit of dollar (a foreign
currency for an Indian) in terms of some units of domestic currency. Therefore it is a dollar direct quote for an Indian
in India. It is referred as Rs/$ quote. (Remember that the same quote when quoted in USA is not a direct quote for an
American.)
A indirect quote is a quote where the exchange rate is expressed in terms of number of units of the foreign currency
per fixed number of units of domestic currency. Therefore, when we say Rs.100 = $02245. we are expressing a
standard unit of rupee (domestic currency for an Indian) in terms of some units of foreign currency (i.e. $).
Bid is the price at which the dealer (generally a banker) is willing to buy another currency .If Rs/$ = .42.50/42.55,
here the dealer is willing to buy a $ at 42.50 from you. This is the Bid rate.
Offer rate is the rate at which a dealer is willing to sell another currency. If Rs/$ = 42.50/42.55. Here the dealer is
willing to sell a $ at 42.55 to you. This is the offer rate. Generally the bid and ask are separated by either a slash (/) or
a dash (—). The difference between the bid and ask rate is called the spread. Any quote is always quoted and read
from the point of view of the banker/ dealer.
BID- Rate at which dealer (bank) is ready to buy foreign currency remember ‘B’ for bid and ‘B’ for buying.
ASK- Rate at which dealer (banker) is ready to sell foreign currency. Remember “A S K”, for selling.
SPREAD - It is the difference between BID and ASK. i.e. BID - ASK.
Example-
If Rs / $ = 42.50/42.55
Here the dealer is willing to buy $ at 42.50 from you. This is BID rate.
INVERSE QUOTE-
For every quote (A/B) between two currencies there exists an inverse quote (B/A) quote where currency A is being
bought and sold with its price expressed in terms of B
A currency is said to be appreciated if one is able to purchase more of other currency against it after appreciation. This
if 1$ = 45, changes to 1$ = 46/-. It means one is able to get more of rupees for same value of dollar after appreciation
hence dollar has appreciated.
This if 1$ = 45/- changes to 1$ = 44/-. It means one is able to get less of rupees for same value of dollar.
A Currency is said to be at premium if it is more expensive in forward market than in spot market.
F-S
SWAP POINTS :
For a bank, the underlying principle in any foreign exchange trading is that purchase should be offset by
corresponding sales and vice versa, especially if the bank decides not to take outstanding positions or indulge in
speculation. In an ideal situation a customer purchase is offset by another customer for the same maturity. In practice,
such a situation may not always exist. It is essentially banks to go for cover operations.
If the swap cost is positive, then the bank has incurred additional to honor customer request and would be promptly
charged. In this case the forward rate would be more than the spot rate. Similarly if the bank is expected to gain in the
process of execution of swap deal, then the benefit would be promptly passed on to customer. In this case the forward
rate would be less the spot rates. Generally this swap cost is denoted as swap points.
.RULE
♦ When the swap cost are LOW / HIGH for A/B quote i.e. in ascending order, add swap points to arrive at
forward rate It means bank has incurred higher cost.
♦ When the swap points the High/ low i.e. in descending order, deduct swap points. It means bank has gained
by swap deal .
Example 1
= 43.76/43.84
Example 2
3M Swap = 4/1
3m FWD = 42.56-.04/42.60-.01
CROSS - RATE
In India all buy and sell transaction are Routed through us dollars. All Deals other than dollar purchase or dollar sale
with respect to Rupee would Involve transactions Involving dollar. Thus if an Indian importer wishes to purchase yen
than he would have to buy dollars first and then sell these dollars to buy yen.
Thus a cross rate by definition involves transaction with more than two currencies. For finding the cross rate we need
to remember the following calculations.-
RULE 1 :
RULE 2 :
Bid ( )=
NOTE:-
This is because when we transact in dollars(say) we use $1 = Rs. 40/44. it means when we want to sell
$ we would get Rs. 40 and when we want to buy a $ we need to give Rs.44.
Now let us assume that we want to transact in rupee. In that case we use Re 1 = $ 0.2273/0.02500. it means
when we want to sell Rs we would get $ 0.02273 and when we want to buy Rs we need to give $ 0.025.
Now is not selling dollars akin to buy rupee and vice versa? From the first quote we get dollar sale rate as $1
Rs. 40. from the second quote we get rupee buying rate at Re.1 = $ 0.025. but both quotes are one and the same
mathematically. Hence we say,
Bid ( ) = and we can say that Ask ( )=