TheRegionalSecurity Environment SouthEastAsia Environment South East Asia

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer [deleted] June8,2011

Objectives
Understandthekeyfactorsshapingthe strategicenvironmentinSouthEastAsiaand theimplicationsforsecurityintheregion, includingtheSouthChinaSea,terrorismand insurgency;sealinesofcommunication;and majorpowerengagement. UnderstandthechallengesfacingIndonesia.

KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic i i h i EnvironmentinSouthEastAsia
Globalfinancialandeconomiccrisis Chinasmilitarymodernisation USrenewedengagement Armsprocurement p

%ShareofGlobalEconomicOutput
30 25 20

1990
15

2015
10 5 0

USA

Japan

China

India

Australia

South South Korea

National GDP in Trillion USD 1990 and 2015

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

1990 2015

USA

Japan

China

KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic i i h i EnvironmentinSouthEastAsia
Salienceofmaritimedomain Transnationalissues Everydaysecurityissues Securityarchitecture y

Hainan H i Island

SouthChinaSea claimants: China Taiwan Taiwan Vietnam ThePhilippines The Philippines Malaysia Brunei Brunei

Major PLA PLA Naval Exercises 2010

March EarlyJuly LateJuly November YulinNaval Base,Sanya

BinhMinh02 Incident ReedBank Incident

Non TraditionalSecurityIssues NonTraditional Security Issues

Naturaldisasters Natural disasters Terrorism TransnationalCrime Transnational Crime Piracy Ethnicconflict Ethnic conflict DrugTrafficking Smuggling Environmental HealthandDisease Health and Disease HumanSecurity Migration&Population Migration & Population Energysecurity ComputerCrime Computer Crime Genderequality Foodsecurity Food security Economicsecurity

everyday security issues

ChallengesFacingIndonesia Challenges Facing Indonesia

Al Q d i A h splinter groups, f Qaeda in Aceh li t focus on near enemy

ChallengesFacingIndonesia Challenges Facing Indonesia

Terrorism dispersed networks Terrorismdispersednetworks

Religiousvigilantegroups

Corruption

Stalledpoliticalreforms

TerrorismandInsurgency Terrorism and Insurgency

MajorPowerEngagement
Subregional multilateralism FPDA ReCAAP USPACOM Theatre Engagement

Middle powers operatingas equals

Hierarchical

underU.S. under U S Leadership

Exclusive EastAsian
Regionalism
ASEANPlus Three(China, Japan,South Korea)

ASEANled multi lateralism

ASEANRegional Forum ADMMPlus

ASEANDefenceMinistersPlus8
USA China Japan

Russia

ADMM

South Korea

India
New New Zealand

Australia

ImplicationsforRegionalSecurity
APEC MinusCLM& India ARF
Foreign Ministers China Japan, p , SouthKorea

ASEAN +3 +3

ADMM ADMM Plus8

Defence Ministers

EAS

+ Russia +Russia andUSA

SoutheastAsia:Climatestress, recentconflict,globaltraderoutes recent conflict global trade routes andchokepoints

TheRegionalSecurity Environment SouthEastAsia Environment South East Asia

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer [deleted] June8,2011