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July 1, 2011

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
11934.73 2681.1 797.33 1268.44

Thursday Close
12414.34 2740.49 827.43 1320.64

4 day change
479.61 59.39 30.1 52.2

4 day change %
4.02% 2.22% 3.78% 4.12%

ytd
7.98% 5.27% 5.53% 5.68%

Summary of VE Stock Universe


Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 49.48% 50.52% 21.50% 20.59%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
1.21% 1.30% 0.91% 0.95% 1.25% 1.20% 0.89% 1.05% 0.66% 1.71% 0.81% 0.98% 1.00% 0.54% 0.64% 0.52%

MTD
3.17% 4.30% -1.48% -0.09% -1.76% -5.33% -0.92% -0.69% -0.16% 3.39% -1.49% 0.87% -2.40% 2.07% -0.55% -0.10%

YTD
14.70% -6.00% -6.14% 7.71% 6.95% -10.19% 2.50% -5.97% 1.98% 3.44% 13.37% 2.56% -0.58% 7.24% -4.57% 5.19%

Valuation
4.14% overvalued 1.39% overvalued 4.60% undervalued 3.79% overvalued 0.37% overvalued 5.13% undervalued 0.74% undervalued 3.74% overvalued 0.38% undervalued 0.61% undervalued 1.09% undervalued 24.36% overvalued 5.01% overvalued 3.43% overvalued 11.08% overvalued 7.37% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
37.97% 60.10% 54.66% 24.35% 37.83% 9.93% 33.48% 22.02% 16.78% 36.14% 26.52% 41.09% 47.28% 38.32% 25.73% 27.99%

P/E Ratio
18.85 19.82 34.74 27.74 38.64 28.7 32.09 31.74 27.83 29.14 30.2 26.03 55.86 34.78 22.56 23.93

Sector TalkIndustrial Products Stocks


Below, we present the latest data on leading Industrial Products Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Industrial Products Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns


Ticker
CENX OI TS FSIN FTEK

Name
CENTURY ALUM CO OWENS-ILLINOIS TENARIS SA-ADR FUSHI COPPERWLD FUEL TECH INC

Mkt Price
15.65 25.81 45.73 5.73 6.63

Valuation(%)
-26.45 -11.62 2.75 -43.25 -52.11

Last 12-M Retn(%)


77.24 -2.42 34.18 -29.95 4.91

Top-Five Industrial Products Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns


Ticker
ERII MBLX SEH TS OI

Name
ENERGY RECOVERY METABOLIX INC SPARTECH CORP TENARIS SA-ADR OWENS-ILLINOIS

Mkt Price
3.27 7.14 6.09 45.73 25.81

Valuation(%)
77.33 -44.54 6.34 2.75 -11.62

Last 12-M Retn(%)


-18.25 -50.1 -40.59 34.18 -2.42

Top-Five Industrial Products Stocks--Composite Score


Ticker
DE OI FLS CNH AGCO

Name
DEERE & CO OWENS-ILLINOIS FLOWSERVE CORP CNH GLOBAL NV AGCO CORP

Mkt Price
82.45 25.81 109.89 38.65 49.36

Valuation(%)
-2.87 -11.62 -9.35 7.58 -21.57

Last 12-M Retn(%)


49.88 -2.42 30.59 70.64 83.02

Top-Five Industrial Products Stocks--Most Overvalued


Ticker
ERII CCIX MLI NPO IRBT

Name
ENERGY RECOVERY COLEMAN CABLE MUELLER INDS ENPRO INDUS INC IROBOT CORP

Mkt Price
3.27 14.69 37.91 48.07 35.29

Valuation(%)
77.33 70.49 56.59 54.35 41.8

Last 12-M Retn(%)


-18.25 160.46 56.14 70.76 87.81

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Free Report Download for Subscribers


As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on BRF-Brasil Foods (BRFS). BRF-Brasil Foods, formerly Perdigao S.A., is a Brazil-based food company focused on the production and sale of poultry, pork, beef cuts, milk, dairy products, and processed food products. The Company's products include frozen whole and cut chickens; frozen pork cuts and beef cuts; processed food products, such as marinated frozen whole and cut chickens, roosters (sold under the Chester brand) and turkeys; specialty meats, such as sausages, ham products, bologna, frankfurters, salamis, bacon and other smoked products; frozen processed meats, such as hamburgers, steaks, breaded meat products, kibes and meatballs, and frozen processed vegetarian foods; frozen prepared entrees, such as lasagnas and pizzas, as well as other frozen foods, including vegetables, cheese bread and pies; dairy products, such as cheeses, powdered milk and yogurts; juices, soy milk and soy juices; margarine; milk, and soy meal and refined soy flour, as well as animal feed.

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on BRFS HERE. If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

What's Hot--New Premium Newsletter Now Available


Yaron Sadan of Osher Capital on Greece
ValuEngine is pleased to announce another addition to our stable of high quality investment newsletters. Our latest premium newsletter comes to us from Yaron Sadan and is called "The Hard Trade." Sadan is the founder and president of Osher Capital Advisors, LLC (Osher). Before starting Osher, Sadan worked in the private wealth management group of Goldman Sachs.

Its Not About Greece


For weeks, the media outlets have been streaming news about Greece analysis, opinion, etc. All of this coverage is intended to shed light on the internal situation. But the story isn't really about Greece; the story is about the euro, and the much larger Euro Zone member countries on the brink of a meltdown. Greece provided an easy test case for the euro. The nation is small, has incredibly generous entitlements, and is import-focused-- it must import tourists for money. Greece is a straw man. Even by European standards, retiring at age 53 with 80% of your pre-retirement income is generous. Once again this proves the point about entitlements: it doesn't matter what age you choose, as life expectancy increases, it's always too young. In any case, Greece is almost out of the picture. One way or another, a solution will be reached in the next few weeks. Early last Friday morning in New York, reports came out that trading in Italian banks was halted as they traded limit down. LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Trading in Italian bank stocks was suspended Friday after a sudden drop in share prices. Shares in UniCredit SpA IT:UCG -4.09% fell 8.9% ahead of the halt in trading and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA IT:ISP -2.24% dropped 7.2%. A spokeswoman for Borsa Italiana said the suspension was temporary and was triggered by "technical problems about volatility." David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said there had been rumours that Italy's banks may need to raise more capital in the wake of European stress tests. Source: CBSMarketwatch.com Again, the issue is NOT Greece, Greece is just the canary. I believe that investors have been complacent with regard to the global financial sector. Italy and Spain will be the markets to watch in the next few days and weeks. Keep a close eye on their banking sectors. As the quarter ends-- and eventually as the year ends come around, the mark-to-model on the complex securities will become ever more difficult to justify. That will put downward pressures on the banks, which in turn will lower credit availability, and in the extreme case lead to another post-Lehman sort of credit freeze for the markets.

The Hard Trade Premium Newsletter is now available on our website HERE Click HERE to download a free sample of The Hard Trade

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(3.166) The monthly chart shows the 120-month simple moving average at 4.041 as the yield down trend support. If you connect the lows you have a yield up trend. The record low yield at 2.016 occurred in Dec 2008, which is when the Federal Reserve cut the funds rate to 0 to %. Yields have been rising since then. I have a new quarterly risky level at 3.052, so we need a weekly close below that yield. Otherwise the risk is to my annual value level at 3.791 in the second half of 2011. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1499.2) The monthly chart is extremely overbought with gold in a parabolic bubble. Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1488.0, $1471.6, $1452.6 and $1356.5 with monthly risky level at $1547.9. We need a weekly close in July above $1547.9 to inflate the bubble further as semiannual and quarterly risky levels are $1644.8 and $1655.1. Nymex Crude--($94.80) Daily and weekly value levels are $93.08 and $80.26 with my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and quarterly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $102.40, $103.93, $107.90 and $113.37. A close in July below the five-month modified moving average at $96.25 shifts the monthly chart profile to negative. The Euro-- (1.4502) Daily, monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4420, 1.4133, 1.3744 and 1.3728 with semiannual and annual risky levels at 1.4752, 1.4872, 1.6367 and 1.7312. My best guess is that the downside risk for the euro exceeds the upside potential in the second half of 2011.

Major Indices Equity Fundamentals end the First Half of 2011 NEUTRAL. 49.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 50.5% of all stocks are overvalued. Six sectors are undervalued with Construction the cheapest undervalued by just 5.1%. Ten sectors are overvalued Transportation by 11.1% and Multi-Sector Conglomerates by 24.4%. Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages Dow --(12,414) The monthly chart shows overbought MOJO with the five-month modified moving average at 12,011 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 13,155, 13,839 and 13,890. My annual value level lags at 11,491. The 120-month simple moving average is 10,547. A close in July below 12,011 indicates significant downside risks given a subsequent close below 11,491 as semiannual value levels lag at 9,635 and 8,468. S&P 500--(1320.6) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1312.8, 1241.3, 1210.7, 981.3 and 855.7 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1422.8, 1467.0 and 1562.9. NASDAQ (2774) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2583, 2335, 2199 and 2049 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2975, 3109 and 3243. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2325) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 2172, 1951, 1861 and 1723 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2338, 2483, 2590 and 2630. Dow Transports (5424) Annual, weekly and semiannual value levels are 5179, 5058, 4335 and 3868 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 5443, 6112 and 6131. Russell 2000 (827.43) Annual, weekly and semiannual value levels are 784.16, 756.79, 577.47 and 530.04 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 834.62, 924.95, 930.83 and 978.58. The SOX (410.35) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 382.62, 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with a daily pivot at 412.84 and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 482.54, 493.22 and 531.14. Note: For my technical momentum metrics--"MOJO"--I use whats called 12x3x3 slow stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

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We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports

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