The ripple effects of Vista on the computer industry around the giobe wiii be feit for years.

BY CADE METZ
] j /"" \ 1""" 1 HEN MICROSOFT UNVKILS A NEW OPERATING

\ 1 / system, the entire industry feels it, for better or for worse. No A y / OS operates in a vacuum, and that's especially true of an OS ' ' ' fromMicrosoft, the company whose software runs upward of 570 million PCs worldwide, according to research firm IDC. And it's not just the sheer number of PCs running Windows that makes Vista so important. Windows works in tandem with countless hardware devices, software applications, networks, and network services built by countless companies around the globe. When a new version of the OS hits the market, the ripples spread in every directionand they spread for years to come.
lustration by Dan Page JANUARY 2007 PC MAGAZINE 93

TOP 5... ER, 7: WHO'S SCREWED?

TV ISagedoes but on Sage does what TJVo a PC. But that's now a less-thanideal place: The Home Premium and Ultimate versions of Vista include a built-in digital video recorder.

WITH CHANGE COMES CONFLICT

Preclick Preclick provides slick, simple, free photo management software. And so does Vista.

3 CyberLlnk app Its PowerDirector Video-editing

is dog slow. Now CyberLInk is also up against the new-a nd- i m proved Windows Movie Maker, bundled with Vista.

As with any other Windows upgrade, Vista is sure to ciinflict with all sorts of existing hardware and software. In fact, Microsoft is practically predicting it, at least for the early days of Vista availability. That means an upswing in support calls across the industryand thousands of software and hardware makers working overtime to churn out new drivers and new applications. You'll also see the usual number of software makers struggling to compete with new and improved applications built into the OS. Now that Microsoft bundles the spruced-up Internet Explorer 7, to name just one. Web browsers like Firefox and Opera have it that mueh harder. But things are even trickier this time around. With Vista, Bill and the boys have made particularly big changes to the user interface and have completely overhauled system security. As end users struggle to become familiar with the new landscape, they'll make even more support calls. And as software apps break down in the face of INTERVIEW

new security restrictions, developers will work even harder to revise their code. Then there's the dilemma facing companies such as MeAfee and Symantec. Thanks to Microsoft's new security measures, they aren't just competing with Gates & Co., they're fighting for the right to compete. Top-tier hardware and software vendors have spent at least a year preparing for Vista's launch, and that's just the first step. They didn't see the final OS until mid-Novemberwhich means incompatibilities are far from fixed. Smaller companies that didn't have access to the Vista beta? Their work hasn't even started. Vendors will struggle with the new OS for monthsif not yearsand as they do, the world's IT departments will struggle as well. First, they'll be tackling the big question: Do we upgrade now or do we wait? Then they'll grapple with the upgrade itself. In the end. Vista is a big improvement for almost everyone. For IT departments. For end users. For all but a few hardware and software vendors. But getting there won't be easy.

Copernic, XI, et al. With Vista, Windows finally offers very useful desktop search tools. That's great newsunless you're the maker of a desktop search product.

View from the Trenches

Wiii businesses upgrade to Vista right away? Shouid they? We asked Jon Plot, coauthor of Ihe Executive's Guide to Information Technology (Wiley, 2003) and president of the solutions group at Technisource, a consulting firm offering hands-on tech services to businesses. Q: Will businesses jump right in? Or will they wait? A: It all depends on the company and the age of its PCs. Windows Vista is going to require a fairly powerful PC with a lot of storage space, faster CPUs, more memory, and larger hard drives. The operating system itself takes up something like 16GB. Even with some newer systems, that means giving up 25 percent of the disk to the OS. It all comes down to a company's schedule for hardware renewal. Some of our clients replace 25 percent of their hardware every year, and we'd advise them to start working on a transition to the new OS. But other clients tend to do a huge hardware purchase every four Jon Piot years or so, and if they've just done one, which a couple of our clients have, they probably won't upgrade to Vista for another year or more. Q: Are there good reasons to upgrade to Vista now anyway? A: The most compelling reason to switch is security. Microsoft's done a lot to improve the security, especially when It comes to end users. They're going after a lot of malicious threats that can cost a business money, and that will drive some upgrades. But a company has to see a real benefit there, and I'm not sure all of them will- Windows XP is a pretty good operating system. If they're already on XP, they probably won't shift their schedules for Vista. O; When they do decide to upgrade, how much testing is required before the roiiout? A: You have to do a pretty significant amount. You have to worry about hardware drivers and software compatibilities, but also about compatibility with other systems in the company. You run into big problems if you're running some sort of specialized equipmenta very specific check-printing application, for instance. You don't want to roll out a new OS and find out someone can't use something they've depended on for years. And you have to remember that you can't switch everybody at one time. You'll have to run multiple platforms while you're going through the transition, and that can take a lot of work. You need to understand how Vista is going to affect your support costs and the resources in your IT department during the rollout.

5 RealNetworks The competition stiffens for

RealPlayer and its Rhapsody online music service. Windows Media Player now dovetails with MTV's URGE store. McAfee, B Yes, Microsoft al. Symantec, et will share the Vista kernel with these security vendors, to fight malware. But the fact remains: As of this month, Microsoft is a security vendor, too, offering a security suite for Vista.

7 Google Just kidding.

94 PC MAGAZINE JANUARY 2007

SECURITY INSECURITY

No one has it tougher than the leading security makers.Not only is Microsoft offering its own security suite for Vista, including antivirus and antispam engines, but its hard-line stance on system security actually threatens the effectiveness of existing suites froni McAfee, Symantec, and others (see "Microsoft Locks Down Security ... and Roils Security Vendors," page 89). After months of argumentin private and in the pressthese companies have finally persuaded Microsoft to make a few concessions, though they're still fighting for access to the Vista kernel, essential to combating matware. Symantec and McAfee insist Vista will nof hurt sales (see "Security Vendors Speak Out," page 96), But that's what software makers always say when Microsoft suddenly becomes a competitor. According to Lee Nicholls, a senior technology adviser at Getronics, a S3.1 billion IT consultant, old-school security vendors arc sure to struggle. "Over the next 18 to 24 months, we're definitely going to see a big downturn in spending on security products like Symantec's," Nicholls says. "Most businesses are going to invest in protection that supports Vista's internal security tools.'" The same is true for all sorts of other software makers, particularly the smaller guys (see "Top 5 ... Er, 7: Who's Screwed?", facing page). Some have revamped their business models. Now that Vista offers new and improved photo management tools, Preclick is licensing its photo app to big names such as Wal-Mart and Hewlett-Packard. Yes, it still offers Preclick Gold to end users, but now there's another source of revenue. "If we didn't have the deal with Wal-Mart, Fd be worried," says Preclick CEO Brian Smiga.
NEWOS, NEW SALES

INTERVIEW

Help Me! Help Me!

When Microsoft rolls out a new OS, things get more difficult for support organizations across the industryat least initiallyand tills wiil surely be the case for them with Vista. In fact. Microsoft's latest OS could cause more problems than usual. We spoke with Cadir Lee. cofounder and CTO of SupportSoft. a company that provides support tools and services for big names such as Bank of America. BT, and Sony. Q: Isn't Vista supposed to make things easier? A: Anytime there's a major change like this, it causes major ripples in the support business. With Vista, many of the things that make it great are also the very things that make it more difficult to support. There are some big strides forward in this OS, but they are also big strides forward in terms of complexity, Q: Such as? A: Security, There's no doubt Vista offers better Cadir Lee security. But this has radically impacted not only businesses that run many homegrown and custom applications, but also the user Users are now much more involved in making security decisions, and those decisions are much more complex than ever before, They're constantly being asked for very specific information, and it's things like that that lead to more support C3il5, O: Outside of cail voiume, how wlil Vista affect support technicians? A: Vista is also a very adaptive operating system. Depending upon the amount of memory you have or the amount of video memory or the number of applications you're running, the operating system reconfigures itself. Again, that's a big move forward, but it also makes it more difficult when someone at a remote help desk is trying to diagnosis a problem. Systems are no longer the same, A system tbat appears very similar to another might exhibit very different characteristics. For instance, sometimes the new Aero interface is on, and sometimes it's off. Imagine being on the phone trying to diagnose a problem and trying to talk to a user vi/ho can't exactly tell you what their OS looks iike, O; How does the new interface make things more difficuit? A: As opposed to the jump from Windows 2000 to Windows XP, where there wasn't a huge shift in the Ul, a lot of things have moved around with Vista, Tbe way many things happen has changed. There are big strides forward here as well, but the cost is that many familiar things aren't what they used to be. Users have grown accustomed to the quirks in the old OS, and now things are very different. That puts a big ioad on support.

The good news is, these vendors are in the minority. For the industry as a whole Vista is a plus. Inevitably, a new version of Windows sparks the sale of more PCs. more peripherals, and more software. Sun Microsystems even argues that Vista is a boon to its Solarisa competing operating system. "Anytime there's a major transition in the marketplace, iike a new OS from Microsoft, it's an opportunity for customers to rcexamine the choices they're making," says Chris Ratcliffc, Sun's director of system software. "Since they'll eventually have to make a change anyway, they're likely to evaluate all their options," Even so. Vista means a fair amount of additional work for tech companies. Consider Phoenix, the industry's primary BIOS writer: Charged with writing the firmware that sits between the OS and PC motherboards. Phoenix started preparations nearly 24 months ago, and the road is

nearly as long for the big desktop and notebook makers. Vista marks the debut of a new Windows licensing arrangement, requiring manufacturers to grab digital keys from Microsoft each time they install the OS. That means a whole new infrastructure on the assembly line. As we went to press, third-party hardware developers had finished over 16,000 drivers for the new OS, and more than 50 software companies had officially updated more than 200 applications under Microsoft's Vista logo program. That's a serious overhauland it's nothing compared with what's on the way. Microsoft anticiJANUARY2007 PC MAGAZINE 95

VISTA UNLEASHED
According to the research firm IDC, Windows Vista will hit the average American home much faster than did Windows XPbut offices are another matter Thanks to some serious hardware requirements, it'll be a while before the average business upgrades to Microsoft's new OS.

to launch its very own help portal. Support.com, offering help to any consumer with PC problems, goes live just as Vista hits the streets (see "Help Me! Help Me!" page 95).
THE CHOICE

Percentage of new Windows PCs

XPC2OO2)

Vista (2OO7-)
Note: Windows XP shipped in late October ot 1001, so it was available for the entirety of 2002 Windows Vista won't ship until late January of 2007. "DatB for 2007 is proiectM Source IDC

pated that, in the two months leading up to the launch, another 14.000 drivers would be in place, with tens of thousands more still on the way. No matter how well they've prepared for the Vista launch, the big vendors still face incompatibility problemsand the smaller vendors face even more. Big PC companies such as HP and Gateway have spent months prepping their call centers for the onslaught, and SupportSoft, a company that provides support services for vendors across the industry, anticipates the biggest uptiek in calls since Windows 95. In fact. SupportSoft sees the arrival of Vista as a prime opportunity INTERVIEW

Somewhere in the middle of all this you'll find the IT manager, wondering when his business should adopt Windows Vista. When a new version of Windows arrives, businesses usually take their sweet time with the upgrade, waiting for Microsoft and the rest to iron out all the kinks. More than a year after its debut, according to inc, Windows XP was running only 10 percent of the world's office PCs. Yes. Vista is a bigger leap forward than Windows XP. The new security tools alone make it a compelling proposition. But at the same time, it requires a bigger hardware boost. In the end, one cancels out the other (see "View from the Trenches," page 94). IDC says businesses will adopt Vista at about the same rate they adopted XP (see graph), And in some cases, the businesses that purchase new Vista machines will actually remove the OS before rolling the systems out. "Some businesses won't be ready to support Vista," says Al Gillen, IDC's operating-systems analyst. Vista is sure to turn the industry upside down. But it may take a while.

Security Vendors Speak Out

What do h/g-name security companies think about Microsoft's becoming a big-name security company? We caiied them to find out.
"On the Web, we've already seen people claiming they've found ways of compromising Vista. They're just sitting out there waiting for the launch- In terms of security. Vista is an improvement. But I still think consumers and ultimately businesses will say, 'i need software and other types of services or devices from outside security companies.'" Lane Bess, president. North America, and general manager, consumer products and services. Trend Micro
96 PC MAGAZINE JANUARY 2007

"They've added a few new security elements to Vistaand we certainly applaud Microsoft for thatbut in no way is it a secure operating system. There are still security threats, and the features they've addedthings like an inbound firewallhave been on the market for a while. All in all. Vista is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't really change the playmg field in terms of security." Rowan Trollope, vice president, engineering, consumer products and solutions. Symantec

"They don't yet have the wide variety of security programs or techniques users have long had access to. We have years of experience providing security software and protecting users, and Microsoft is a novice in the field. They're just joining in. We welcome that, but we want them to play fairlyin terms of the operating system and especially in terms of the operating system's kernel." George Heron, chief scientist, McAfee