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qun l ri ro c hiu qu , phng thc tip cn mi cc nh qun l d n bc vo th k 21

Bo co trong Xmina v Symposium ca Vin Qun l D n hng nm ln th 29 ti Long Beach , California, USA: Ti liu trnh by vo Thng Mi t ngy 9 ti 15, 1998 Tc gi : T.s. Nghi M. Nguyen , Cng ty T vn Qun l D n Canada Gs L Kiu , Trng H Kin trc H ni

Gii thiu Mi trng kinh doanh m chng ta tham gia ngy nay c tnh cnh tranh cao hn rt nhiu so vi thi gian trc y. Thm vo , s chuyn i t h thng lao ng cng thng ca ngnh cng nghip sang h thng chuyn giao cng ngh lm cho hng tip cn qun l d n truyn thng hu nh thin v chi ph v ca tnh k hoch ti cc d n, khng cn thch hp vi qu trnh a ra cc quyt nh hng ngy ca cc nh qun l d n. Tnh cnh tranh cao v s tin b rt nhanh chng ca cng ngh hin i do s thay i cc iu kin th trng, cc cng ty phi chp nhn v thc hin cch iu hnh d n c hiu qu v tin tin, s cho php cc cng ty tn ti v thu c li nhun trong mi trng iu khin bng d n tng lai cng nh l hon thnh cc yu cu chin lc ton cu trong nhng nm sp ti. Qun l bt k mt d n no cng l mt nhim v kh khn v y th thch v nhng bin ng qu trnh thc hin cng nh trong vic xc nh u ra cu cng . Mc d cc cng ngh qun l d n in hnh a ra cc yu cu v Gii hn , Chi ph, v Tin thc hin l ng li kim sot s qun l mt d n c hiu qu, cc d n thng xuyn gp nhng kh khn ngay c khi cc nh qun l vch k hoch t m v s dng cc phng php iu khin tc nghip rt bi bn. L do d nhn thy l cc mi e do ti s thnh cng ca d n khng
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nhn thy trc ri t tm ra gii php s l nhng kh khn tim n y khng hoch nh trc c t mc tiu ca d n. Tm li l cc nh qun l d n phi lun nhn thy c cc ri ro tim n s nh hng ti s thnh cng ca d n ri t sm tin hnh cc hot ng i ph vi cc nguy c ny mt cch c hiu qu. Vic thc hin phng hng s l ri ro c hiu qu s cung cp cho cc nh qun l d n th thut s l cn thit m n s lm tng ln kh nng thnh cng trong cc d n bng cch nhn ra cc kh khn , iu ny mang li li ch r rng cho cc nh qun l d n ln khch hng. Song song vi vic qun l d n c tin hnh lu nay, cc phng php c lin quan, chc nng s l ri ro ng php lut m n to ra s ch c bit trong qun l d n ti cc ri ro trong d n c th l yu t c bn ca hng qun l d n c hiu qu v hon thin. N thy c ri ro ang nh hng n s thnh cng ca d n, a ra hnh ng trnh ri ro, ri thc hin k hoch gim thiu nh hng ca nguy c m n nn c th ho. Mc ch ca bn bo co ny l miu t mt hng s l ri ro c hiu qu c p dng vo bt c d n loi no lm gim bt mc khng n nh lun gn lin vi qu trnh lp k hoch v iu khin mt d n. N kim tra v tho lun cc lnh vc then cht trong vic s l ri ro di y: Pht trin qun l ri ro trong cc hot ng qun l d n Vic s l ri ro c xem nh l mt yu t c bn trong hng qun l d n c hiu qu v trn vn Cc qu trnh lp d n, iu chnh v bo co vic s l ri ro

p dng v chp nhn cch tip cn ri ro chun mc i vi


cc d n ca th k 21
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pht trin qun l ri ro trong hot ng qun l d n

Trong tin trnh qun l d n, k hoch c tnh truyn thng, chi ph, cc kha cnh chuyn mn ca mt d n c xem nh l mc tiu chnh ca cc nh qun l d n. D mt d n c qun l tt n mc no i na th d n vn ph thuc phn ln vo vic thc hin c hiu qu mt chng trnh m trong mi lin quan gia k hoch, chi ph v cc vn k thut ca d n mang tnh chuyn mn u c nh gi mt cch kh quan, c ngha l yu cu mang tnh chuyn mn ca mt d n c thc hin vi mt chi ph kh thi nht v trong mt thi gian thc t ngn nht. Vic khng r rng, m n c th nh hng xu n cng vic trong tng lai ca d n, c ngi ta phn nh qua gi thuyt c thc hin hoc trong cc ghi chp ca cc d n trc y. Do p lc phi hon thnh mt cch c hiu qu v hon ho hn v c hi kinh doanh nng cao, cc cng ty ang c gng sng lc v xc nh li vic thc hnh qun l d n nhm tun theo cc yu cu hp ng ca khch hng v lm tng s hi lng ca khch hng. Trong thp nin 80 s cn thit to ra s thng nht gia ri ro vi k hoch, chi ph v phm vi c tnh chuyn mn xut hin trong khi nh gi vic thc hin cc d n v thay i cng ngh thc s ch lin tc sy ra trong kinh doanh, c th l s tin b nhanh ca cng ngh tin tin nht lm xoay chuyn cc ngnh. Cc khch hng khng phi chp nhn cc ri ro khng c d tnh trc v bt ng sy ra trong lc thc hin d n na. Minh ho 1 a ra khi nim v cch s l ri ro trong cc hot ng qun l d n.

Cho n lc ny cc nh qun l d n mi bit rng cch tch cc m vic thc hin qun l d n thnh cng i hi khng ch l cc hng qun l d n c chp thun mt cch c truyn thng m cn l mt hng s l ri ro c hiu qu r rng m hng ny cung cp c s bt i cc nh hng c lin quan ti d n v c cu ca cc nh cung cp d n. S l ri ro c chng minh l ng trong tt c cc d n v trong bt k loi hnh sn xut no, mt phn ph ca qun l d n hot ng, b xung k hoch, chi ph v cc hot ng qun l c tnh chuyn mn. Tm c v loi hnh d n, mi lin quan ti k hoch chin lc, s lng ri ro v kh nng nh hng ca cc ri ro ti d n ni ln vic s l ri ro mi quan trng lm sao.

qun l ri ro c xem nh l yu t c bn trong cch tip cn qun l d n c hiu qu v hon chnh


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i ph ri ro l mt th thut m n ch ra him ho c kh nng nh hng ti s thnh cng ca d n. Th thut ny cn tp trung s ch qun l d n vo him ho , ri tin hnh cc hnh ng trnh him ho, ng thi thc thi cc k hoch nhm dung ho v gim thiu s nh hng ca loi him ho ny. Him ho ny nn c c th ho v lm tng kh nng thnh cng ca d n. N cng nn bao gm c k hoch thu c kt qu ti mc ti a trong cc tnh hung ch ng m n gn lin vi nguy c ri ro (ri ro c tnh hu ch). i ph ri ro l phn ph trong cc hot ng qun l d n, c hon tt song song vi chi ph c lp ra theo truyn thng, k hoch v cc chc nng qun l c tnh chuyn mn c thc hin c mc d n ln mc v chuyn mn. N c hng ch ng trc, v d nh l cc bin c bt li c kh nng xy ra c chun b trc th tt hn l vic i ph vi cc bin c bt li sau khi m chng xy ra. Hng ch ng trc ny to ra thi gian cho cc nh qun l tm ra c cc hng khc nhau v cc k hoch hnh ng ri t la chn cch gii quyt thch hp m n ng vi mc tiu ca d n nht. V ri ro lun lun l mt b phn thng nht ca mt d n v lun gn lin vi s khng r rng; i ph vi ri ro l mt hng c h thng nhm nh gi s khng r rng, tch ri cc hng ti u ri lp ra cch thc chi ph c hiu qu v do vy vic gim thiu s thiu r rng l mt yu t cn bn trong hng qun l d n c hiu qu v ton vn. lp k hoch qun l ri ro v kim tra v bo co cc qu trnh

i ph vi ri ro c tch ra hai lnh vc ch yu: lp k hoch v iu khin i ph vi ri ro. Trong d n trc y bao gm cc hnh ng m ngi ta mong i n hon thnh trong sut giai on hot ng ban u ca d n, m bnh thng n ch xy ra trong ba thng u theo nh quyt nh ca hp ng. Trong thi gian ngi ta tin hnh thc hin d n nh nh. Ngc li cc d n sau ny gm cc hot ng tn ti trong thi gian thc hin hp ng. Vic bo co cch i ph ri ro ch ra hin trng ri ro trong d n v n ko di cho ti khi chm dt c tt c cc ri ro c nguy c nh hng ti d n. Lp k hoch i ph ri ro Lp k hoch i ph ri ro bt u bng s nhn ra cc ri ro c kh nng xy ra v kt thc bng cch hon thnh k hoch i ph ri ro. iu ny gm c tm phng php:

1. Lm r ra cc ri ro l mt qu trnh nhn ra c tt c ri
ro c nguy c xy ra trong d n m c th i ph v c th dng l l gii thch c. Bt c mt ri ro tim n no khng phi lc no cng l mi e do ln ti s thnh cng ca mt d n m cng chng l mt vn m t d n khng xem xt ti. thy c tt c cc nguy c ri ro trong d n, ngi ta yu cu cc nh ch o d n cung cp danh sch c th v cc vn c lin quan ti phm vi chu trch nhim ca ring tng ngi. Ri h xem xt li cc danh sch khng nh rng vn ri ro ang thc s gy nguy him ti s thnh cng ca d n v ang c t d n ch o i ph. Phng php ny c thc hin

bng cch s dng C cu Phn chia Cng vic (CPC)* nh l mt c cu ca vn tm ra cc him * Ting Anh vit tt l WBS ( Work Breakdown Structure, C cu Phn chia Cng vic) ho c th. Nh qun l d n hay nh i ph ri ro (i vi cc d n ln) s phng vn tng nh ch o d n tm ra cc vn tim n vi mi yu t c bn ca CPC. Vi mc ch nh gi ri ro mi ngi s theo mt danh sch tng hp v nguy c ri ro.

2. nh gi mc ca ri ro l mt phng php nhn ra


kh nng gii hn nh hng i vi mi vn ri ro. Kh nng gii hn ch ra mc rt c kh nng xy ra m ri ro s c th ho v c biu th bng cc thut ng c lin quan v c nh lng. nh hng ca ri ro l cch nh gi v mc d n s chu ri ro l bao nhiu nu nh vn ri ro c c th ho. Cc nh hng c din gii trong mi quan h v chi ph cng vi/ hoc k hoch v/ hoc hiu qu thc hin c tnh chuyn mn. nh gi cc vn ri ro, cch trc tip nht l phi d on c kh nng v nh hng i vi mi vn ri ro c xc nh bng cch s dng k thut hoc bng cch phn xt v kinh nghim gii quyt. Thu thp cc d liu c lin quan v cc phn tch c bn c th cung cp hng phn xt ng nht ny cho vic nh gi ri ro. Nh qun l d n hay nh i ph ri ro s phn tch nguy c ri ro ca d n v cng nhn (s dng quyt nh) kh nng v nh hng ca mi ri ro.

3. La chn vn ri ro l mt phng php xc nh cch


thch hp i ph vi cc ri ro chnh ca d n m cc
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ri ro ny thc s gy nguy him ti s thnh cng ca d n, n d c t d n gii quyt v xt cho n cng l phng sch c th gii quyt ri ro. Vic ny s dn n mt lot cc ri ro c th c gii quyt bng phng php i ph ri ro ca d n. Mt lot ri ro s c sa i trong qu trnh thc hin v trong lc mt s ri ro bin mt th mt s khc li xut hin. i vi mt s ri ro, nh qun l d n s gp kh khn trong vic a ra ng li ch o chng li chng. Theo l thng th t d n s phi a ra c nh gi chung v tt c nhng ri ro ban u ri la ra mt tp hp ri ro thch hp i ph.

4. Phng php trnh ri ro l mt qu trnh cn thit


lm gim bt i kh nng xut hin i vi mi ri ro la chn gii quyt. Mi mt phm vi chuyn mn xc nh c nhng hnh ng no nn c tin hnh trnh hoc gim kh nng xut hin ri ro c chn la gii quyt. Ngi ta cng phi xt hiu qu sinh li cho hng trnh ri ro sp ti. Trong vic xc nh c phng php ny, khng mt gii php c th no c a ra m n vt qua cch b tr hp l, quyt nh s l c lgc. 5. Vic xc nh k hoch i ph bt trc xy ra v cc iu kin tin hnh/ kt thc K hoch i ph bt trc xy ra cho ta thy nhng cng vic m phi lm gim thiu cc nh hng gy ra do ri ro m n ny sinh ra nh l mt vn ca d n. Thm vo , ngi ta phi xc nh cc iu kin bt u/ hon thnh mt hot ng. Cc nh ch o mi mt chuyn mn xc nh h phi thc hin cc hnh ng i ph no vi nhng bt trc xy ra

m h phi c trch nhim gii quyt. Bt c mt gii php c th no c xut m n li vt ra ngoi vic tin hnh bnh thng, cch b tr hp l v quyt nh s l vi mc ch nhn ra phng php gii quyt. iu ny dn n k hoch i ph vi mi ri ro bt ng c chn nhm gii quyt ri ro ri xc nh iu kin no phi gia bt u tin hnh v kt thc k hoch i ph vi ri ro bt ng. 6. Tm ra du vt ri ro v bo co cch thc xc nh

ri ro l mt phng php trong hin trng ri ro phi c gim st xc nh liu phng php trnh ri ro c xc nh cn ph hp cho vic gii quyt cc ri ro hin ti v liu k hoch i ph vi ri ro bt ng cn c tc dng i vi cc ri ro c s l. Bng bin php ny ngi ta tm ra bin php trong s n lc iu chnh ny phi c hon thnh v cc tnh trng ri ro phi c thu thp, bo co, v cn nhc. Cc ri ro chnh phi c bo co trong Bo co Phn tch Vn Ri ro. Tt c cc nh qun l chuyn mn xc nh r c im, tnh cht cch tm ra tng ri ro nh th no. Nh qun l d n (hoc nh x l d n) s ch r tt c cc tnh trng ri ro trong bn bo co s c thu thp, ph bin v c ch nh th no trong cc bui hp duyt li d n. C th l, vic theo di x l ri ro s c hon thnh thng qua c s d liu x l ri ro c cha d liu thch ng i vi mt vn ri ro. Tng phn ca d liu c bn s c cp nht thng k khi bn bo co v cc ri ro c a ra. iu ny s dn n vic nh r mi ri ro s c tm ra nh th no v cc hot ng i ph vi ri ro s c h tr ra lm sao v c xt duyt cp d n no.

7.

T chc qun l ri ro v xc nh trch nhim l mt

qu trnh xc nh vic t chc gii quyt ri ro v chu trch nhim i vi vic gii quyt ri ro. Nhim v ca nh qun l d n (nh x l ri ro) l phi ch ra c cc t chc gii quyt ri ro v trch nhim lin i i vi tng c nhn. iu ny s n n vic lp ra biu v bng v chu trch nhim lin i (Ma trn chu trch nhim lin i i vi vic x l ri ro). 8. Qun l ri ro v chun b d liu . Vic cung cp chnh ca vic lp k hoch i ph vi nhng ri ro l mt k hoch c chng minh bng ti liu m n h tr cc tt c cc thnh vin trong t d n c nhn thc chung r rng v cch ri ro c gii quyt da vo d n cng nh l vai tr ca h trong k hoch ny, v d nh l trch nhim c th ca h. D liu c s s c chun b thu thp v bo co tt c d liu i ph vi ri ro. Nh qun l d n (nh x l ri ro) s chu trch nhim v ni dung k hoch i ph ri ro c c s l lun. Phng php ny s a ra s b tr v cc d liu i ph vi cc ri ro.

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Ch o i ph vi ri ro
Vic ch o i ph vi ri ro bt u bng vic thi hnh gim bt i bt c kh nng ri ro hoc cc hot ng gim thiu nh hng ri ro.

1. Thc hin hng trnh ri ro: ngi ta xut nhiu cch


gim kh nng ri ro khc nhau c da trn c s cch thc
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i ph vi ri ro c xc nh trc v c thc hin theo ng k hoch, c ngha l vic lm nh bt trin khai ng b vi vic thc hin gim nh kh nng xy ra ri ro; lm du i gim tc ng nh hng hoc chp nhn n m chp nhn hu qu.

2. Bo co v nh gi ri ro: trong sut thi gian thc hin d


n, bo co ri ro phi c trin khai nh k da trn c cc d liu ri ro c cha thng tin v tt c ri ro c th ca d n. Cc bo co ri ro phi gm d liu thch ng v mi ri ro chun b c gii quyt. Cc bo co tr thnh vn ngh s c v mc chuyn mn ln mc nhn nhn d n ti tnh trng ri ro c bn bc. Nhiu bn bo co s khng thay i v nhng phm vi c th i hi nhng d liu cp nht do thnh vin t d n chu trch nhim ring. Thnh vin ny s trnh cc bo co v hin trng ri ro xc ng. Ngi qun l d n (ngi gii quyt ri ro) s ch ra hin trng ri ro c xc nh nh l nhim v trong qu trnh xem xt ca khch hng. Cc nh hp ng ph s bo co hin trng ri ro theo cch tng t ng nh cch t chc chuyn mn.

3. Thc thi k hoch chng ri ro bt ng: thnh vin t d


n c trch nhim vi vn ri ro h d c giao gii quyt s bo co vi nh qun l d n (ngi gii quyt ri ro) vic thc thi k hoch i ph vi ri ro bt ng.

4. nh gi cc hot ng k hoch chng ri ro bt ng: S


nh gi v hiu lc mi k hoch chng ri ro bt ng thc hin c a ra v c bo co trn c s nh k. Trch nhim ca mi c nhn v mi vn ri ro ring bit nh gi hiu qu cc hot ng c thc hin trong k hoch i

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ph vi ri ro bt ng v bo co mc hiu lc trong bo co v ri ro. Thng xuyn nh gi s ph hp vi cch bo co thng xuyn. Nh qun l d n (ngi gii quyt r ro) s xem xt nh k cc bo co nh gi ny do tnh kin nh ca vic thc hin. Trong mi bo co v ri ro, hin trng tn ti ri ro m k hoch cc hot ng nn tm tt cc hot ng bc u gim thiu cc nh hng ca cc ri ro c th.

5. Xc nh li cc k hoch i ph vi ri ro bt ng: tng


nh lnh o d n s thc hin qu trnh xc nh li k hoch i ph vi ri ro bt ng v mi vn ri ro nn c yu cu gii quyt. p dng v chp nhn phng php tip cn qun l ri ro chun cho cc d n ca th k 21 Vic gii quyt ri ro ang ni bt ln nh l mt phng thc thit thc m mc ch ca n l phi sm tin hnh cc hnh ng chng li cc nguy c ri ro trong d n mt cch c hiu qu, do vy s lm tng kh nng thnh cng ca d n. Kh nng thnh cng ny cho php chng ta tn ti v thu c li nhun trong mt mi trng lm vic y tnh cnh tranh nh vy. S l ri ro tr thnh mt vn d thit thc trong qu trinh quyt nh ca cc nh qun l d n ca tt c cc ngnh. B qua vic gii quyt ri ro trong bt c d n no s lm tng ln kh nng tht bi trong vic thi hnh d n. Hng gii quyt ri ro nh trnh by trong ti liu ny a ra mt phng thc m n len li vo vic xc nh s khng r rng ca d n, ng thi phc ho ln hu qu tng t ca n, ri ra chin lc v sch lc gii quyt mt cch c hiu qu. N s lm tng mt cch ng phng sch ca cc nh qun l d n tip nhn s u thc v
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mc tiu m khch hng da ra, v n cng gia vai tr then cht trong vic nh hng qun l d n trong th k 21./.

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