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Coping with the Consequences of Rapid Growth Coping with the Consequences of Rapid Growth
Growth will remain strong at 7.5%yoy in 2011, but policymakers will be walking an extremely narrow tightrope as supply-side pressures come to a head. Three challenges in particular: Sticky Ination. We expect ination to ease back towards 7% by mid-year as the strong winter crop enters the system, but this will be weighed against rising global commodity prices. Tight Liquidity. Despite slight easing in nancial conditions since the start of the year, the environment will remain constrictive. Weak Capex. Fixed investment has yet to recover from the global credit crisis. The factors cited above, coupled with corruption investigations and political challenges, have slowed the investment cycle and continue to hold back new orders. A respite in ination is the key lever that could give policymakers that much-needed room to address supply-side challenges. Given the RBI's hawkish stance, we will see a continuation of rate hikes this year to the tune of 75 basis points. On balance, INR is likely to experience a bias towards slight depreciation.
8.4 7.7
7.7 7.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
10
15
20
25
30
Growth, %yoy
The The Consumer: Continuing the 2010 Upswing Consumer: Continuing the 2010 Upswing
Consumer Activity index (CAI)
Apr-Jun 04 Jul-Sep 04 Oct-Dec 04 Jan-Mar 05 Apr-Jun 05 Jul-Sep 05 Oct-Dec 05 Jan-Mar 06 Apr-Jun 06 Jul-Sep 06 Oct-Dec 06 Jan-Mar 07 Apr-Jun 07 Jul-Sep 07 Oct-Dec 07 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11
3 5
10
Source: IMF
%yoy
India Russia Turkey Indonesia Brazil China Mexico Singapore Korea South Africa Poland Philippines Thailand Colombia Chile Peru Malaysia Taiwan
4 6
Minerals 11%
Non food: others 15% Oil-seeds 2% Coee 0% Milk 21% Fibres 6% Tea -1% Egg, Meat & Fish 20%
5 4 7
The The Hit Asian Growth from Rising Oil Oil Prices Hit to to Asian Growth from Rising Prices
ppt -0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.06
-0.06 0.00
0.0
0.1
0.09
Korea
HK
Singapore
Indonesia
Source: IMF
Philippines
Malaysia
Taiwan
India
Thailand
China
0.2
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How Much Demographics Contribute to Indias GDP Growth How Much Demographics Contribute to Indias GDP Growth
Demographics Contribution to GDP
% 5 Age Structure Education Labor Force Urbanisation
2001-10
2011-20
2021-30
2031-40
2041-50
7 9
Indias MuchEconomy is the Size of the Size of Emerging Asia How Economy is Roughly Roughly Emerging Asia (ex China) Combined India's Demographics Contribute to Indias GDP Growth (ex China) Combined
GDP (USD bn) 7,000 % 5 6,000 4 5,000 4,000 3 3,000 2 2,000 1 1,000 0 0 8.4% $1,598 6.2% $777 4.0% $334 China 2001-10 India 2011-20 Indonesia Thailand 2021-30 9.6% $6,422
5.3% $237
4.5% $213
6.8% $114
8 10 9 3
2008
India
-60 1960
Regionally, India has a unique growth driver: at nearly 60%, it has one of the highest domestic consumption/GDP shares in the region (in comparison, Chinas consumption share is 38% of GDP). Added to this, over the next two decades the country will experience a sweet spot in the growth of incomes as new waves of households move into the middle class bracket. While Chinas middle class peak is about to pass, Indias sweet spot in middle class growth will likely be felt globally over the next two decades.
Source: GS
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10 12
Urbanization: 400mn people added to urban spaces over next three decades
Urban population (mn) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Urban annual growth rate (%) Urban population (mn) (lhs) Urban annual growth rate (%) (rhs) 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Womens Employment: A continuation of recent trends in increased womens employment participation could add $110 bn to the economy in the next decade
Womens employment participation (% of working-age women) 80% Womens employment participation 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Vietnam China Thailand US Source: UN, NSSO
Migration Patterns: Divergent fertility rates will mean north-south and center-periphery migration
Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Haryana Uttarakhand Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Assam Nagaland Meghalaya Tripura West Bengal Manipur Mizoram
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Jharkhand
0%
Phil IndonesiaSpore Russia Brazil Korea Japan Malaysia France Mexico India
Fertility rates less than 2 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 above 3.5 Fertility rate for INDIA 2.7
11 13
12 33 32
13 35 34
14 36 35
15 43 42
16 44 15 43
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
17 14
India and China Comparison (cont.) India and China Comparison (cont.)
Changing Age Structure, 1950-2050
Ratio of Working age to Non-working age population 3.0 India China
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0 1950
Source: United Nations (2009)
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
18 15
1990
Male Female
6 8 Population (%)
19a 28a
2010
Male Female
6 8 Population (%)
19b 28b
2030
Male Female
6 8 Population (%)
19c 28c
2050
Male Female
6 8 Population (%)
19d 28d
India India to Provide the Largest Increase to Global Labor Force to Provide the Largest Increase to Global Labor Force
Addition to Labor Force, 2011-2020, million 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 India
Source: ILO
China
Brazil
US
Japan
20 17
1988
2010
2020
Source: CEIC
21 18
22 19
YouthYouth Devote Comparatively More of Their Spending Basket to Devote Comparatively More of Their Spending Basket to Food, Beverages, Personal Care, Transport Health Food, Beverages, Personal Care,Transport andand Health
Others Consumer Durables Footwear Clothing Health Housing Education Communication Transport Beverages Food 0
Source: NCAER, Everstone Research
>=65
35-64
<=35
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 %
23 20
4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
24 21
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 India China
1975 2005
Indonesia
Korea
25 22
Agriculture, forestry & fishing, 72 % Financing, insurance, real estate & business services, 7% Community, social & personal services, 6% Manufacturing, 6% Trade, hotels & restaurants, 3% Construction, 3% Transport, storage & communication, 1% Mining & quarrying, 1% Elect. Gas & water supply, 0%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing, 52% Manufacturing, 11% Community, social & personal services, 9% Trade, hotels & restaurants, 9% Financing, insurance, real estate & business services, 6% Construction, 6% Transport, storage & communication, 4% Mining & quarrying, 2% Elect. Gas & water supply, 1%
Source: CSO
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Amritsar Ludhiana
Faridabad Jaipur
Megacities
Kanpur
Boomtowns
Kolkata
Niche cities
Bangalore Coimbatore
Chennai
27 24
The Twenty Cities Make Up Less Than 10% of Indias Population, but Generate More Than 30% of Income
Share in all India (%)
Megacities
Boomtowns
Niche cities
28 25
10
12
14
16
18
0
Su Ah gpu me r da ba d Ja ipu Mu r mb Lu ai ckn o Lu w dh ia Ba na ng a All lore 20 cit ies Am rits ar Ch Delh an i dig arh Ch en n Ja ai lan dh ar IN D Fa IA rid ab ad Re st Hy Co of de Pu Ind rab Ko ne ia ad lka im ta ba tor e Ka np ur Bh op al Na rat
29 26
30 27
More Than households in Chandigarh will be middle class by More than half of Half of Chandigarhs Households is Middle Class 2016
% of total population
100 80 60 40 20 0
31 28
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Spending Propensities
op Ja al lan dh ar Ka Co npur im ba to Fa re rid ab a Am d rits ar Ko lka ta Pu ne Na gp ur Ja i Ba pur ng a Hy lore de rab a Lu d ckn ow De l Lu hi dh ian a Ch en na i Su Ch rat an dig arh Mu Ah mba me i da ba d
32 29
Bh
100 80 60 40 20 0
Megacities
Niche cities
Boomtowns
All 20 cities
33 30
Niche Cities Have the Highest Asset Penetration, but Lowest Financial Penetration
% of households
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Life Insurance Loans
Boomtowns
Megacities
Niche cities
Credit Card
34 30 29
Source: ILO
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Overall consumption expenditure should grow 3.5 times over the next 10 years.
Ination will remain higher throughout the next decade, trending closer to 7.5% due to supply-side shortages and structural demand shifts.
More women in the workforce will add $110bn to the economy over the next decade.
The age group witnessing the fastest population growth over the period will be the 25-34 years old age group.
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