Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Piping Service Experience Related to Aging in OECD Pipe Failure Data Exchange (OPDE) Database
Oct. 6, 2005

Sun Yeong Choi*, Joon Eon Yang*, and Young Hwan Choi** *Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (sychoi@kaeri.re.kr) **Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
1 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Backgrounds
r Aging PSA and Passive System Reliability Study in KAERI
u We

have performed

v Participation in OPDE Project to collect piping failure data v Development of DB for the number of weld of safety piping

systems in Korean NPPs for piping reliability analysis

v Analysis for piping damage frequency / rupture frequency u We

are going to

v Investigate the OPDE database for the piping aging trend v Develop the estimation method for aging parameter

2 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Purpose of Study
r Purpose of Study
u

To Get Insights for Piping Aging Trend from OPDE Database

v How to obtain piping aging trend from OPDE DB v What is the meaning of the results obtained from piping aging trend

analyses

r Methods
u u u

Understanding of Data Completeness in OPDE DB Selection of Data from OPDE DB for Aging Trend Analysis Various Aging Trend Analyses with the Selected Data
3 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

OPDE (OECD Piping Failure Data Exchange)

r Objective of OPDE Project
u u

To develop a well structured, comprehensive database on pipe failure events To enable project member organizations to utilize the collected data for various application fields including PSA, Aging Management, or LBB

r OPDE Project
u u

May 2002 ~ September 2008 Project Members: 12 Countries

r OPDE Database
u

Scope of OPDE DB
v Non-through Wall Defect v Through-Wall Defect without Active Leakage v Leak / Rupture / Severance

3,244 records (by May 2005)

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Structure of OPDE DB
Regulatory inspection reports Deviation Reports LERs / AOs / ROs / WOs RIISI Applications Isometric Drawings ISI Summary Reports ASME Section XI Relief Requests Plant Operating Records / Logs ISI Program Plans / ISI Database Piping Design Information

Population Data Plant A&E System Component Metallurgical data Installation data Event Date

Event Data Affected System(s) Component Method of Detection WOR ISI

Service History FAC Program Water Chemistry / H2-injection (BWR) IHSI Replacement

Locations per isometric drawing(s) Fabrication data Weld data

Narrative w/description of impact on operations

Data Retrieval & Validation Statistical Analysis Classification according to attributes and influences Identify degradation mechanism(s) Data Analysis Failure Modes

Applications PSA PFM RIISI

Piping Reliability Parameter dB Leak frequencies by Attributes & Influence Factors Conditional Rupture Probabilities by Attributes & Influence Factors

Statistical Distribution Parameters

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Characteristics of OPDE DB
r Data Source of OPDE DB
u Data

from SKI-PIPE Database

v The SKI-PIPE database collected piping failure occurred up

to 1998 from 1970

v Data from 29 Countries (including 12 OPDE Member

Countries)
u Data

from OPDE Project Members

v OPDE project mainly focused on piping failures occurred

after 1995

To use OPDE DB for piping aging trend analysis, understanding of data completeness is required

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Data Completeness of OPDE DB (I)

Data Collection for OPDE DB Start of SKI-PIPE '1960 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
u

End of Base Date SKI-PIPE (12/31/04) '1990 '2000 '2008 First Rx-Criticality Cease of Data Collection Pipe Failure First Record in OPDE DB

'1970

Base Date : Closing Date of Data Collection for Analysis

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Data Completeness of OPDE DB (II)

r Case (1) and (2)
u

Piping failures have been collected successively during both periods of the SKI-PIPE and OPDE DB

r Case (3) and (4)

u u

Data collection ceased at the end date of the SKI-PIPE Collection of pipe failures from 17 countries stopped after 1998

r Case (5)
u

There exists a long interval between the first operation date and the event occurrence date stored into the DB for the first time For some plants, there is no pipe failure record occurred during the period of the SKI PIPE project

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Data Scope for Aging Trend Analysis

r 1,424 Records from 212 PWRs
u u u u

Plant from OPDE Member Countries (Except for Canada) Plant Starting Operation after Jan. 1970 Total Plant Operation year: 4609.7 yr Data having Clear Failure Description
BE CH CZ 3 2 4 1 7 1 1 2 7 4 5 7 3 15 6 2 58 3 3 2 DE ES FI FR 4 22 32 JP 1 8 10 4 23 14 KR 5 6 3 2 1 3 SE US 1 23 31 20 75 14 73 95 30 212

Plant Operating Year 0 ~ 10 10 ~ 20 20 ~ 30 =30 Total

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Method 1 for Aging Trend Analysis

r Description u Three Groups Categorized by Different Base Date (End date of 1984, 1994, and 2004) u Common Method for Data Upgrade for Component Reliability Analysis u We can get more data when base data is Dec. 31, 2004 '1970 '1984 '1994 '2004

(I) 125 Plants (819.7 yr) (II) 198 Plants (2583.7 yr) Plant Operation (III) 10 212 Plants (4609.7 yr)

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Results of Method 1
Pipe Leak Trend
0.60 Occurrence Frequency (/yr) 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

Pipe Crack & Wall Thinning Trend

Occurrence Frequency (/yr)

All Piping = 1 inch > 1 and = 4 inch > 4 inch

0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00

Wall Thinning Crack

1984

1994 Base Date

2004

1984

1994 Base Date

2004

Leak frequency dominates the whole piping failure frequency

v Ratio of Leak frequency and other frequencies is more than a factor of 10 v There is no significant trend in crack and wall thinning frequencies

Leak frequency is decreasing as data collection progresses

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Review of Results from Method 1

r Aging Effect
u

It is very difficult to extract aging effect from the results

v Each group categorized by base date consists of younger plants

and older plants

v Operation experiences of older plants and younger plants are mixed

in each group

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Method 2 for Aging Trend Analysis

r Description
u

Three groups are categorized by different total plant operation years (0~15, 15~25, 25~ 35) with Dec.31 2004 as the starting point

Plants in Group (3) are the oldest plants, while plants in Group (1) are the youngest plants Jan. 1, 1970 Jan. 1, 1980 Jan. 1, 1990 Dec. 31, 2004
u

Group (3) 63 Plants (1863.0 yr) 25~35 years 1970s

Group (2) 119 Plants (2427.0 yr) 15~25 years 1980s

Group (1) 28 Plants (284.6 yr) 0~15 years : Plant Operating Years

1990s (up to 2004) : Plant Operation Starting Date 13 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Results of Method 2
Pipe Leak Trend
0.50 0.40 Occurrence Frequency (/yr) 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0~15 15~25 Operation Year 25~35

Pipe Crack & Wall Thinning Trend

0.05

Occurrence Frequency (/yr)

A Piping l = 1 inch > 1 and = 4 inch > 4 inch

Crack
0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0~15 15~25 Operation Year 25~35

Wall Tinning

Leak frequency of older plants is generally higher than that of younger plants. Ratio of Leak frequency and other frequencies is more than a factor of 10
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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Review of Results from Method 2

r Aging Effect
u Although

the leak frequency of older plants is generally higher than that of younger plants, it does not express the aging effect.
v The leak frequency of older plants during the plant early

operation period is higher than that of younger plants

v The reasons may be low levels of design, construction, and

maintenance in early operation period of older plants.

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Method 3 for Aging Trend Analysis

r Description u Plant operation starting times of all the plants are moved to identical time point (Jan. 1, 1970) u Six groups are categorized by 5 calendar years
'1970
0~5 yr 5~10 yr 10~15 yr 15~20 yr 20~25 yr 20~30 yr

212 Plants (1044.5 yr)

207 Plants (1007.5 yr)

196 Plants (948.4 yr)

179 Plants (736.2 yr)

112 Plants (430.9 yr)

61 Plants (205.2 yr)

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Results of Method 3
Pipe Leak Trend
0.35 0.3 Occurrence Frequency (/yr)

Pipe Crack & Wall Thinning Trend

0.1 0.08 Occurrence Frequency (/yr) 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0-5 5 - 10 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 Time (Calendar Year)

0.25 0.2

0.15 0.1

All Piping = 1 inch <1 and = 4 <4

Crack Wall-thinning

0.05 0 0-5 5 - 10 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 Time (Calendar Year)

u u u

Crack frequency increases progressively The trend of leak frequency shows typical bath-tub shape The leak frequency is relatively high in early operation period and decreases by 20-year operation and then the leak frequency increases

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Results of Method 3 (Modified)

Pipe Leak Trend
0.7 Occurrence Frequency (/yr) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0-5 5-10 10-15 Time 15-20 20-25 25-30

0-15 15-25 25-35

Leak data is categorized into three groups by plant operation years (0~15, 15~25, 25~35) And then Method 3 is applied in each group

The leak frequency of the oldest plants decreases as the plants ages and then increases slightly after 20-year operation In the case of plants whose operation years are ranged from 15 to 25, the leak frequency is almost constant as plants age
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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Review of Results from Method 3

r Aging Effect
u Based

on the Method 3, the trend of leak frequency shows typical bath-tub shape as the plants age the plant operation year (0~15, 15~25, 25~35), the leak frequency of the oldest plants decreases by 20year operation and then increases slightly

u Considering

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Practical Application of Age-Dependent Reliability Models and Analysis of Operational Data

Conclusion
r In this Study
u

We apply three kinds of analysis methods to figure out piping aging trend from OPDE DB The aging effect can be extracted by using Method 3 based on the assumption of identical plant operation starting time

r Further Works
u u

Estimation of Aging Parameter Application of Aging Parameter into Aging PSA

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