Bng tm tt tnh hnh sn xut la go trn th gii v vit nam nm 2010

Trn th gii, la chim mt v tr quan trng, c bit vng Chu . Chu , la l mn n chnh ging nh bp ca dn Nam M, ht k ca dn Chu Phi hoc la m ca dn Chu u v Bc M (Hong Long, 2010).

Thng k ca t chc lng thc th gii (FAO, 2008) cho thy, c 114 nc trng la, trong 18 nc c din tch trng la trn trn 1.000.000 ha tp trung Chu ,....., 31 nc c din tch trng la trong khong 100.000ha - 1.000.000 ha. Trong c 27 nc c nng sut trn 5 tn/ha, ng u l Ai Cp (9.7 tn/ha), c (9.5 tn/ha) El Salvador (7.9 tn/ha). (Hong Long, 2010) S liu 5 + s liu 4 ) .

Thng k ca t chc lng thc th gii (FAO, 2008) cn cho thy, din tch trng la trn th gii gia tng r rt t nm 1961 n 1980. Trong vng 19 nm , din tch trng la trn th gii tng bnh qun 1,53 triu ha/nm. T nm 1980, din tch la tng chm v t cao nht vo nm 1999 (156,8 triu ha) vi tc tng chm vi tc tng trng bnh qun 630.000 ha/nm. T nm 2000 tr i din tch trng la th gii c nhiu bin ng v c xu hng gim dn, n nm 2005 cn mc 155,1 triu ha. T nm 2005 n 2008 din tch la gia tng lin tc t 159,0 triu ha cao nht k t nm 1995 ti nay. (Hong Long, 2010) s liu 0 .

Bn cnh din tch trng la, nng sut la bnh qun trn th gii cng tng khong 1,4 tn/ha trong vng 24 nm t nm 1961 n 1985, c bit sau cuc cch mng xanh ca th gii vo nhng nm 1965-1970, vi s ra i ca cc ging la thp cy, ngn ngy, khng quang cm, m tiu biu l ging la IR5, IR8. n nhng nm 1990 dn u nng sut la trn th

gii l cc nc Triu Tin, c, M, Nht Bn, Ty Ban Nha (IRRI, 1990). T nm 1990 tr i n ti thi im hin nay nng sut la th gii lin tc c ci thin t 4,3 tn/ha nm 2008 do ????? , tuy nhin ch bng phn na nng sut ca Ai Cp (9,7 tn/ha) nc ng u th gii (Hong Long, 2010) s liu 5, powerpoint slide 3).
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Tnh hnh nhn chung nng sut cc nc trong 8 nm (2000 2008) cho thy nng sut la cao tp trung cc quc gia nhit ngy v m cao hn v trinh canh tc pht trin tt hn. Cc nc nhit i c nng sut bnh qun thp do ch nhit v m cao, su bnh pht trin mnh v trnh canh tc hn ch (Nguyn Ngc , 2008). c (9,5 tn/ha), El Salvador (7,9 tn/ha), Uruguay (7,9 tn/ha) c mc tng nng sut la ln hn 1 tn/ha trong nhng nm gn y vn ln ng v tr th 2, th 3 v th 4 trn th gii cng mt s nc khc l Morocco, Iran, Triu Tin, Th Nh K, Ukraine , Tajikistan, Macedonia. Hong Long, 2010 s liu 5).

Tnh hnh nhn chung ca cc nc c din tch trng la nhiu nht th gii nm 2008. ng u vn l 8 nc chu l n , Trung Quc, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thi Lan, Myanmar, Vit Nam, Philippines. Tuy nhin nng sut ch c 2 nc c nng sut cao hn 5 tn/ha l Trung Quc v Vit Nam. Mc d nng sut la cc nc Chu cn thp nhng do din tch sn xut ln nn Chu vn l ngun ng gp rt quan trng cho sn lng la trn th gii (trn 90%). Nh vy, c th ni Chu l va la quan trng nht th gii. (Hong Long, 2010 s liu 5).

i vi tnh hnh xut khu go nm 2008, Thi Lan vn l nc xut khu go dn u th gii 9 triu tn hn Vit Nam ng th 2 (3.8 triu tn) v c s lng v gi tr, chim 31% sn lng xut khu go th gii, 38,8 % sn lng xut khu go ca chu mc d nng sut la ch khong 3 tn/ha, u th ny do c th trng truyn thng rng hn, v cht lng

go cao hn. Pakistan, M, n cng l nhng nc xut khu go quan trng. Theo IRRI, la go sn xut ra ch yu l tiu dng ni a, ch c khong 6-7% tng sn lng la go trn th gii c lu thng trn th trng quc t ( IRRI, 2005). (Hong Long, 2010 s liu 5, s liu 3, powerpoint slide 2 ). D on tnh hnh la go th gii t cc chuyn gia cho 10 nm ti la go vn lun phi c quan tm. Theo Wailes v Chavez (2006) nhn xt trong vng 10 nm ti, nng sut la th gii tip tc tng bnh qun trn 0,7% hng nm, trong 70% tng trng v sn lng la th gii s t n ( 37%) Indonesia, Vit Nam, Thi Lan, Myanmar v Nigeria. Tuy nhin do tc tng dn s nhanh hn nn hng nm mc tiu th go bnh qun u ngi s gim khong 0,4 % mi nm. n v Trung Quc vn s l cc nc tiu th go nhiu nht v c khong 50% lng go tiu th ton th gii. Gi go th gii s tng bnh qun 0,3% mi nm v lng go lu thng cng gia tng trung bnh 1,8% mi nm. Khong nm 2016, lng go trao i ton cu s t 33,4 triu tn (17% cao hn mc k lc nm 2002). D vy, lng go lu thng trn th trng th gii cng ch chim khong 7,5% lng go tiu th hng nm. Nhu cu nhp khu go trong 10 nm ti ca cc nc Chu Phi v Trung ng d on s chiu gn 42% lng go nhp khu trn th gii. Nigeria d on s nhp khu 2,4 triu tn vo nm 2016. Sn xut la Trung ng b tr ngi do thiu nc, nn cc nc Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia v Ivory Coast vn tip tc gia tng nhp khu do tng dn s v tng mc tiu th go bnh qun u ngi. Cng trong khong thi gian ny, gn 30 % sn lng go nhp khu ca th gii s thuc v cc nc EU, Mexico Hn Quc v Philippines (Nguyn Ngc , 2008).
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Dn s th gii theo lin hip quc c lng trn c s d liu quc t (IDB) s l 7 t nm 2011, chu chim khong 60% dn s th gii

khong 3,8 t, chu Phi 1 t chim 14%, chu u 731 triu chim 11%, Bc M 514 triu chim 8%, Nam M 371 triu chim 5,3%. Chu c 21 triu chim 0,3 %. Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2009 c 1.02 t ngi thiu i (chim 14%) tp trung hai khu vc chnh l Chu v Chu Phi. (Hong Long, 2010 powerpoint slide 1) .
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Theo s liu ca B Nng Nghip M (USDA, 2007), tng nhu cu tiu th go trung bnh hng nm ca c th gii c t 410 triu tn ( 2004-2005), tng ln n khong 424,5 triu tn (2007), trong khi tng lng go sn xut ca c th gii lun thp hn nhu cu ny. Cng theo c quan ny, hng nm th gii thiu khong 2-4 triu tn go, c bit nm 2003-2004 s thiu ht ny ln ti 21 triu tn (Nguyn Ngc , 2008).

III. TNH HNH SN XUT LA GO TRONG NC TA

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Vit Nam, trng la l mt ngh truyn thng t xa (khong ? nm), thn thit lu i nht ca nhn dn, c bit l ng Bng Sng Cu Long ((Hong Long, 2010 Powerpoint slide 4).

Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2008, Vit Nam c din tch la khong 7,4 triu ha ng th 7 sau cc nc c din tch la trng nhiu Chu theo th t n (~44.0 triu ha), Trung Quc (~29.5 triu ha), Indonesia (~12.3 triu ha), Bangladesh (~11.7 triu ha), Thi Lan (~10.2 triu ha), Myanmar (~8.2 triu ha). Vit Nam c nng sut 5,2 tn/ha ng th 24 trn th gii sau Ai Cp (9,7 tn/ha) c (9,5 tn/ha) El Salvador (7,9 tn/ha), ng u khu vc ng Nam v ng th 4 trong khu vc chu sau Hn Quc (7,4 tn/ha), Trung Quc (6,6 tn/ha), Nht (6,5 tn/ha). C mc tng nng sut trong 8 nm qua l 0,98 tn/ha ng th 12 trn th gii v ng u ca 8 nc c din tch la nhiu Chu v kh nng ci thin nng sut la trn th gii (Hong Long, 2010, s liu 4, s liu 5). Vit Nam vt tri trong khu vc ng Nam nh thu li c ci thin ng k v p dng nhanh cc tin b k thut v ging, phn bn, v bo v thc vt.

Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2008, Vit Nam c tng sn lng la hng nm ng th 5 trn th gii, nhng li l nc xut khu go ng th 2 (5,2 triu tn) sau Thi Lan (9,0 triu tn), chim 18% sn lng xut khu go th gii, 22,4% sn lng xut khu go ca chu , mang li li nhun 1275,9 t USD nm 2006 , nm 2010? ((Hong Long, 2010 s liu 3)

Theo s liu thng k ca FAO (2010) so snh din tch canh tc v sn lng gia la v cc cy lng thc khc Vit Nam nm 2008 th la

go vn l sn phm cn c u tin hng u v din tch nhiu nht c nc hn bp v sn, sn lng ng u hn khoai lang v cy sn. ng ch l nng sut la c ci thin ng k (?????).
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Qua cc giai on lch s ci thin i sng ca nhn dn cho thy quan tm ca nh nc i vi sn xut la go. Trc nm 1975, nng sut go t i 2,2 tn/ha, din tch trng la di 5,0 triu ha. Nng sut bnh qun trong cui thp nhin 1970 gim st kh nghim trng do t ai mi khai hoang cha c ci to, thin tai v su bnh, vi c ch qun l nng nghip tr tr khng ph hp c bit l nhng nm 1978 1979. Bc sang thp nin 1980, nng sut la tng dn do cc cng trnh thu li trong c nc, c bit BSCL. C ch qun l nng nghip thong hn vi ch trng khon sn phm trong sn xut nng nghip. Nm 1982, nc ta chuyn t nc phi nhp khu go hng nm sang nc t tc go. T nm 1975 n nm 1990, trong vng 15 nm din tch la tng gn 1 triu ha t 6,0 triu ha vi nng sut tng gn 1 tn/ha t 3,2 tn/ha. K t lc go Vit Nam ti nhp th trng th gii nm 1989 th nm 1990 ng v tr xut khu go th 4 sau Thi Lan, Pakistan v M, n nm 1991 ln v tr th 3 v tip tc ln hng vo nm 1995 v tr xut khu go th 2 th gii . T nm 1990 n 2005, cng trong vng 15 nm nhng din tch la tng gn 1,3 triu ha t 7,3 triu ha vi nng sut tng gn 1,7 tn/ha t 4,9 tn/ha v mc gia tng nng sut vn tip tc ci thin. (Hong Long, 2010 s liu 1)

Kt qu phn tch cho thy, th trng xut khu go chnh ca VN trong 15 nm qua, th nht l cc quc gia ng Nam (chim khong 40-50% lng go xut khu, th hai l cc quc gia Chu Phi (chim khong 2030%, mt th trng kh n nh. Cc th trng khc l Trung ng v Bc M, nhng lng go xut khu sang cc nc ny khng n nh, c bit l trong giai on 2001-2004. Trong nhng nm qua, go xut khu

ca VN tng trng v s lng v cht lng cng nh m rng th trng. n nm 2003, ngoi cc th trng truyn thng ca VN nh l Philipines), VN m rng v pht trin thm mt s th trng tim nng nh Chu Phi, M Latinh v EU Yu t quan trng nh hng cc doanh nghip xut khu go ca Vit Nam l t kinh nghim nn thiu kh nng duy tr v khai thc cc th trng nhiu bin ng. Nu c mi lin kt tt hn v t chc th trng tt, h s nng cp hng ngch v gi tr xut khu go ca VN. (Nguyn Ngc , 2008). V gi c, go VN dn dn c nng ln tng ng vi go Thi Lan, vo cng thi im v cp loi go. iu ny cho thy, cht lng go v quan h th trng ca go VN c th cnh trinh ngang hng vi go Thi Lan trn th trng th gii ( bng 1.12)

i vi va la ln nht c nc ng bng sng Cu Long, t nm 1975 n nm 2008 c nhng bc tin r rt. T vng la ni mnh mng An Giang, ng Thp, vng trng phn ng Thp Mi, T gic Long Xuyn, vi ch mt v la ma, nng sut thp v bp bnh nay chuyn dn thnh vng la 2-3 v ngn ngy nng sut cao, n nh, cng vi nhng h thng canh tc a dng, gp phn rt ng k vo sn lng lng thc v lng nng sn hng ho xut khu hng nm ca c nc. Nng sut bnh qun c nm ca ton ng bng gia tng t 2,28 t/ha( 1980 n 3,64 tn/ha (1989) 5,0 tn/ha (2005) 5,3 tn/ha (2008) (bng 1.14) . Hin nay, BSCL c tng din tch gieo trng la gn 3,9 triu ha chim 53,4% din tch gieo trng la c nc, cung cp 20,7 triu tn la trong tng sn lng 38,7 triu tn la ca c nc chim t l 53,5 %.

(Hong Long, 2010 s liu 1 bng 3) m trong hn 80% sn lng go xut khu hng nm t y.