TA 7465-RREG: Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

CLIMATE CHANGE IN MONGOLIA:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, MITIGATION & POLICY

Dr. Jamsran Batbold Dr. Namjil Enebish

3rd Regional Consultation Meeting July 19-20, 2011, Beijing, China

COUNTRY REPORT UPDATES

National Circumstances Impacts and Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Mitigation Practices Policy in the Country

SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Indicators
GDP, in billions (constant 2000 US$) GDP by industrial origin (% of GDP) Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Services GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) Poverty headcount ratio at $ 1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) Poverty headcount ratio at 2 a day (PPP) (% of population) Total population (millions) Population density (people per km2) Urban population (million) Urban population growth (annual %) Age dependency ratio (% of working age population) Labor force (million) Employed (millions) Agriculture (% of total employment) Industry (% of total employment) Services (% of total employment) Unemployment rate (%) 1990 1.09 15.2 40.6 35.6 44.2 522.0 18.8 (1995) 43.5 (1995) 2.1 1.3 2.5 84.2 0.7 0.8 46.1 (1995) 17.9 (1995) 35.9 (1995) 5.5 2000 1.08 32.7 20.3 47 454.0 15.5 (2002) 38.8 (2002) 2.4 1.5 0.8 61.8 1.0 0.8 48.6 14.1 37.2 4.6 2010 4.2 21.2 29.5 49.3 2251.0 2.2 (2008) 39.2 2.7 2.0 1.1 3.5 46.8 1.1 1.0 33.5 15.5 44.2 9.9

SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Social Indicators

Population growth rate (avg. annual %) Urban population growth rate (avg. annual %) Rural population growth rate (avg. annual %) Urban population (%) Population aged 0-14 years (%) Population aged 60+ years (women and men, % of total) Sex ratio (men per 100 women) Life expectancy at birth (women and men, years) Infant mortality rate (per 1 000 live births) Fertility rate, total (live births per woman) Contraceptive prevalence (ages 15-49, %) International migrant stock (000 and % of total population) Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR Education: Government expenditure (% of GDP) Education: Primary-secondary gross enrolment ratio (per 100) Education: Female third-level students (% of total) Seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

Years 2005-2010 2005-2010 2005-2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2006-2009 mid-2010 end-2008 2005-2008 2005-2008 2005-2008 2008-2012

Actual values 1.8 3.5 0.6 63.3 26.0 6.5/5.3 94.6 72.3/64.9 20.2 2.4 66.0 10.0/0.4 369 5.1 99.7/95.7 60.9 4.0

TEMPERATURE CHANGES
Temperature due to global warming has increased in Mongolia at least 2.14oC since 1940 and is projected to increase up to 5oC by end the 21st Century. The rate of future winter warming in Mongolia varies from 0.9 to 8.7 while the summer C C, temperature increase varies from 1.3 to 8.6 C C. Yearly mean temperature has increased to 1.66 during last 60 years. Winter temperature is C increased by 3.61C and spring-autumn temperature by 1.4-1.5C. 9 of the hottest 10 years in the last 69 years were after 1990 .

Average annual temperature changes: blue- winter; red- summer

PRECIPITATION CHANGES
The annual precipitation (200-220 mm) reduced by 7% from 1940. Mongolia is projected to be dry and hot, while winter will be milder with more snowfall. Precipitation changes since 1961 in Mongolia can be classified by locations: Altai mountain region, Altai Gobi, the eastern part of the country has increased, and in all other regions has decreased by 0.1-2.0mm/year.

VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES

Index Fd-5 Su26 Gsl Tn10p Tx10p Tn90p Tx90p wsdi csdi R99p prcptot Description Change in 1979-2009

Cold day (Tdaily min < 0oC) Hot day (Tdaily max< 26oC) Vegetation growing period (days with Tdaily mean > 5oC stable for c 6 days) Cool night (with temperature less than 10% of stat. distribution night tem.) Cool day (with temperature less than 10% of stat. distribution of day tem.) Warm night (with temperature more than 90% of stat. distribution of night tem.) Warm day (with temperature more than 90% of stat. distribution of day tem.) Indicator of hot days (at least continuous 6 days with temperature more than 90% of statistical distribution of day temperature) Indicator of cold days (at least continuous 6 days with temperature less than 10% of statistical distribution of night temperature) High amount of precipitation (more than 99% of supply of annual sum of precipitation) Total amount of precipitation (sum of precipitation of days with precipitation)

Decrease by 18 days Increased by 44 days Increased by 26 days Decreased by 5 days Decreased by 5 days Decreased by 8 days Increased by 10 days Increased by 10 days Increased by 2 days Decreased by 16 mm Decreased by 15 days

WATER RESOURCE CHANGES

The surface water of Mongolia exists in more than 5121 rivers, 3,732 lakes and ponds, 9340 springs, and 190 glaciers. By the 2007s water inventory reveals that 852 rivers and streams, 2,096 springs and 1,166 lakes and ponds have dried up; The size of the snowcap on major mountains has been reduced by 30% as compared with that in the 1940s. Accordingly, water surface decreased by 38% from 1992 to 2002, Ground water level decreased by 0.53.0m between 1997- 2009.

Annual changes in river water

Main river basins of Mongolia

FOREST RESOURCE CHANGES

Total forest area cover is at 102,520 km2 which is 6.5 % of the total land area. Reduction of forest resources were estimated 1.2 million hectare in the last 30 years: 356.0 thousand hectare by fire, 270.0 thousand hectare by insect. At that period 32.9 million cube wood are cut . Significant decreases in forest areas have been observed, by 26%, respectively. 1980

2009

DESERTIFICATION
Last 10 years, Mongolias: arid area extended by 3.4 percent, area of lands affected by desertification impact extended by 5.4 times, seriously desertificated area was extended by 1.8 times. Barren land (without grass) increased by 46% from 1992 to 2002 and 2006 it has almost tripled, from 52 thousand square kilometers to 149 thousand square kilometers, almost 10% of the total land area. Desertification has been seriously existing in the Gobi desert region , which occupies 41.3 percent or 647,000 square kilometers of countrys territory.

1992

2002

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Studies show that the number of national disasters such as thunderstorms, flash floods and hails have doubled in the last 20 years which caused considerable human and economic losses. Drought has increased significantly, about 95% for the last 60 years. The worst droughts experienced in the country were in the consecutive summers of 1999; 2000; 2001 and 2002, which affected 50 70 % of the territory. 2005 was the most severe year by having 81 extreme natural events and it has caused a loss of 3.5 billion Tugrugs. The magnitude and frequency of the following disturbances are projected to increase: extreme hot and cold weather; zud (harsh winter); dust, sand storms frequency; flooding in some areas; melting of high mountain glaciers and snow caps; and degradation of land surfaces by permafrost.

IMPACTS ON HUMAN SYSTEMS: ANIMAL HUSBANDRY

Mongolian herders experienced the worst zud in the last 30 years, in 1999 - 2000, when more than 25% of the total number of livestock were lost, 10 times higher than the normal year loss. Duration of normal grazing time of livestock in summer occupies 25% of total pasture time then it will decrease by almost two times in 2020. However, present interruption time of grazing on pasture is 38%, it would be significantly increased up to 53-58 percent in 2020. Pasture degradation the pasturing duration of sheep in the forest-steppe zone increased double from 7 days to 14 days between 1980-2001. It reduced the eating normative of the sheep and further lead to decrease in the all type of livestock live weight. For instance, on average fully-grown cow weight decreased by 13.6 kg, sheep 3.63 kg and goat weight by 2 kg respectively. Since, the weight of livestock is decreasing the profit from the livestock is decreasing at the same time. As an example: sheep wool is decreasing by 4.3 g/year, which means 1 kg less wool within 22 years time. Goat cashmere decrease is 0.22 g/year is a loss of 5 kilos per head in the 2000s comparing to the 1980s.
Yearly livestock death 2.8% between 1961-1996, but it is increasing 6% 1996-2004, 8.7% 1996-2007.

Relationship between livestock death and dzud indexes

Number of goat and cattle of Mongolia are shifted

IMPACTS ON HUMAN SYSTEMS:

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is highly dependent on temperature, precipitation, and water resources, which are greatly affected by climate change. The adverse impacts will change the agricultural production structure; accelerate the decomposition of organic elements in the soil; degrade grasslands; increase natural fire disasters. During the last 20 years the harvesting rate decreased due to repeated droughts and increased number of extreme hot days right at the time of blossoming of and pollination crops. According to the measurements made by the agro-meteorological station on the crop fields of the Khongor soum in the Darkhan Uul aimag, based on the specialized Institute of Agriculture, the wheat harvesting rate between1986-2007 was decreasing by 0.28 centners/ha. Because of climate warming and drought frequency and improper human activity 70% of total land has been degradated. As result the biomass have been decreased by 50-60% , the number of vegetation species by 6 times for last 60 years.

IMPACTS ON HUMAN SYSTEMS: HEALTH

Mongolia is vulnerable to the following climate-sensitive diseases:
heat-related diseases vector borne diseases, water borne diseases, disease from urban air pollution, and diseases related floods, droughts windstorms and fire.

Number of natural disaster and its damage, victims are increasing year to year The number of death caused by natural extreme events has reached up to 82 in 2008, which is the record in last 20 years. Observed high correlation between number of hot days and death of cardiovascular disease.

Livelosses caused by natural disasters in Mongolia

PLANNING OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION

Reduce vulnerability of livestock and other sensitive sectors to the impacts of climate change through the suggested adaptation measures in a coordinated way and incorporation in long-term planning. Continue research, training, strengthening and building upon existing capacity might be the most important measure for strengthening the adaptive capacity. Assess and when needed, improve forecasting and warming systems for disaster preparedness such as for drought, zudh, etc. to help meet potential threats. Refine existing impact and vulnerability analyses discussed herein to the greatest extent possible, reducing the uncertainties and fine-tuning the assumptions towards more meaningful policy recommendations. Translating these findings and recommendations into easily understandable and not-sotechnical terms will be most useful. Continue to improve and refine the existing vulnerability and adaptation research in other areas such as energy, biodiversity and forestry, crops and the direct and indirect health effects of climate change. Implement greenhouse gas reduction projects through the recommended mitigation measures in energy, industry, transport, forestry and waste management sectors. Pursue national and international collaboration such as research, resources sharing and climate/weather forecasting at the North-East Asia sub-regional level, for Mongolia to take an active lead role due to current exigencies.

ADAPTATION POLICY ON AGRICULTURE

Technology and information transfer to farmers, herdsmen and local communities; Education and awareness campaigns targeting decision makers, the agricultural population and the general public; Research and technology to ensure agricultural development that could successfully deal with various environmental problems in the 21st Century; Management measures by coordinating information on research, greenhouse gases inventory and monitoring; Development, implementation and evaluation of appropriate adaptation projects

ADAPTATION FOR ANIMAL HUSBANDRY

To keep number livestock according to carrying capacity To keep out from grazing (no grazing, fencing) To plant more nutrient and multiannual species To fertilize pasture To remove weed, miles and locust To improve pasture water supplement To keep the best traditional pasture managements as moving, seasonal use, To establish fodder producing factory To develop farmer based animal husbandry To develop community based animal husbandry To improve livestock productivity

ADAPTATION POLICY FOR LAND DEGRADATION & DESERTIFICATION

Empowering the actions against desertification at the national and local level, to improve organizational functions and legal framework/policy environment. Establishing the mechanism to prevent and mitigate desertification, as well as to research its nature, reasons and impacts. Introducing the new and advanced national technology to combat against desertification. Increasing the awareness of land degradation and desertification among the community, to empower the public participation to combat desertification.

ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR LAND DEGRADATION & DESERTIFICATION

In 2003, the first National Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (NPACD) in Mongolia has been adopted, and made amendment in 2010. Some projects are implemented to combat desertification in Mongolia: Sustainable management for land use (SDA) Sustainable management for pasture use (GIF) Desertification decrease (J-Green) Green belt (ROK)

MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Non-energy sector
Building
Building insulation improvements Building standards Improvements of district heating system in buildings Lighting efficiency improvements

Agriculture
To limit the increase of the total number of livestock by increasing the productivity of each type of animals, especially cattle. To promote industrial livestock production enterprises Natural regeneration Plantation forestry Agro-forestry Bioelectricity Landfill methane recovery Comprehensive waste management Alternative waste management, such as recycling

Industry
Technology change (Dry process of cement industry and others) Motor efficiency improvements Lighting efficiency improvements Promotion of ESCO activities

Land use change and forestry

Transport
Vehicle fuel combustion efficiency improvement Improvements road conditions Taxes on vehicle purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing

Waste

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

The calculation shows that Mongolias net GHG emissions were 22,532 thousand tons of CO2-eq in 1990. The net GHG emissions were reduced to 14,850 thousand tons in 1995. But during this period the methane emissions increased due to an increase in livestock population. The Greenhouse Gas Emission inventory for Mongolia is prepared with consideration of the four main GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O and NFCs, as well as the indirect gases CO, NOX, NMVOC and SO2.

Total CO2-eq emissions in Mongolia for the period 1990-2006

Greenhouse gas emissions

GHG EMISSIONS IN CO2-EQ BY GASES FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2006

Carbon dioxide is the most significant source of the greenhouse gases in Mongolias inventory with a share of 50.4 % of the total CO2-eq emissions in 2006 followed by methane, which comprises 41.8%. The remaining gases (N2O, HFCs) make up 7.8% of Mongolias GHG Emissions.

Greenhouse gas emissions

CONTRIBUTION TO METHANE EMISSIONS BY SECTOR FOR 1990 AND 2006

The main contributor to the total methane emissions is the agriculture sector with about 92- 93% of the total methane emissions The second biggest contribution comes from the energy sector with about 5-6%, while all other sectors are contributing with less then 2% in total.

Mitigation strategies to Climate change

Implementation possibilities of Greenhouse Gas mitigation projects
Mongolia is one of the potential host countries of CDM projects. Despite a small population and economy, Mongolias GHG emissions are relatively large, due mostly to climatic factors (cold winters). In particular, there is considerable scope to use renewable energy resources to replace fossil fuels, to reduce fossil fuel input by replacing outdated heating equipment with more efficient heating equipment, and to increase energy efficiency in supply and demand sectors. CDM can play an important role in the sustainable development of Mongolias economy CDM can help to reduce pollution, make the economy more competitive, create employment, and reduce poverty. Especially given Mongolia climatic conditions, the potential benefits to Mongolia from CDM can be relatively large. Recently the several projects are approved and registered as CDM projects

NEW NATIONAL ACTION PROGRAM ON CLIMATE CHANGE OF MONGOLIA

Adopted: Jan. 6, 2011, by Parliament of Mongolia Goal: Sustaining the balance of ecosystem, adapting the developments of socioeconomic industries with climate change, reducing the vulnerability, risk and Greenhouse Gas emission, enhancing the productivity of industries in the country, supporting the green economy policy development and implementation. To be implemented : 2011-2021

TO BE IMPLEMENTED ACTIVITIES:
Establishing new legal frameworks and its environment and administrative structure which implements actions and responses against climate change (new legal condition & amendment, management structure etc) Establish and enhance country`s adaptation capacity towards climate change, sustain and support ecosystem balance, reducing the hazards/risks of country`s society and economy step by step (protect water & forest resources, add CO2 adsorbent sources, adaptation capacity building etc.) Reducing the emission of Greenhouse gases by introducing environmentally friendly technologies, thus will result transition to low-carbon economy (decrease pollutions, add renewable energy sources, environmentally friendly technology and CDM etc.) Introducing new technologies to extend the network of climate change monitoring, enhancing the capacity of respective field researches (long-term monitoring research network, risk management study etc.)

EXPECTED OUTCOMES:
Developing new regulation and updating current legal framework to combat the Climate Change and its impacts. Establishing external audit monitoring to minimize the Greenhouse gases. Creating new standard for energy conservation Empowering awareness and the capacity to respond to climate change and its impacts on human health Introducing collective management to protect head streams of rivers and waters Increasing the numbers of artificial ponds Increasing the reforestation process. Improving the water irrigation system in agriculture industry Improving the animal husbandry practices Decreasing consumption of energy resources such as coal Increasing the utilization of renewable energy Introducing new technology and standard to decrease the loss of energy

RECOMMENDATION
1.

2.

3.

4.

Reduce vulnerability of livestock and other sensitive sectors to impacts of climate change through the suggested adaptation measures which require actions in a coordinated way and incorporation in long-term planning. Continue research, training, strengthening, and building upon existing capacity might be most important measure in strengthening the adaptive capacity and vulnerability and adaptation strategic planning. Assess and, when needed, improve forecasting and warning systems for disaster preparedness such as for drought, zud, etc. to help meet potential dangers. Refine existing impact and vulnerability analyses discussed herein to the greatest extent possible, reducing the uncertainties and fine-tuning the assumptions towards more meaningful policy recommendations. Translating these findings and recommendations in easily understandable and not-sotechnical terms will be best.

RECOMMENDATION (CONT.)
5.

6.

7.

Continue to improve and refine the existing vulnerability and adaptation researches in other areas energy, biodiversity and forestry, crops and direct and indirect health effects of climate change Implement greenhouse gases reduction projects through the recommended mitigation measures in energy, industry, transport, forestry and waste management sectors. Pursue national and international collaboration such as research, resources sharing and climate/weather forecasting at the North-east Asia sub-regional level, for Mongolia to take active lead role due to current exigencies.

Thank you for your attention