Tsunamis

Abstract
Before the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004, few people had heard of the word, and even fewer understood what it meant. The tragic events that occurred and the graphic images that swept the worlds media have taught the world a very harsh lesson. Although it is not possible to predict tsunamis, it is possible to prepare for them. The number of people at risk from a tsunami is greater now than ever, so what can be done, and what is being done?

Introduction
Most tsunamis consist of a series of waves generated by the rapid movement of the seabed. These differ from wind-generated waves in a number of ways: The wavelength is very long commonly 150250km but can be up to 1000km. Velocities may reach 700800km per hour. There is a low wave height of 0.55 metres. The wave period is very long 1560+ minutes. The wave height is shallow in relation to the wavelength, thus tsunamis are often undetectable in open oceans.

As a tsunami approaches the coastline, its speed and wavelength decrease rapidly, but the time between waves (wave period) remains the same, thus the wave height increases as the subsequent waves approach and combine. The first waves to reach the shore are not usually the largest but may raise the sea level by 12 metres. The waves are followed by troughs which take the tide out very rapidly. The height of the waves and depth of the troughs increase until the sea retreats far below the normal tide level immediately prior to the main wave. The main wave in a tsunami may reach 1030 metres and may result from several waves in a sequence combining. Figure 1 shows how a tsunami works. Figure 1 How a tsunami works.

Causes of tsunamis
The main cause of tsunamis is earthquakes, especially those that involve vertical displacement at a subduction zone or a mid-ocean ridge. Horizontal displacement is not associated with tsunamis. The magnitude (m) of a tsunami is related to the height (h) of the wave. This can be shown as m = 3.32 log10 h (Figure 2). However, the effect of shoreline shape also needs to be taken into account. Figure 2 Relationship between tsunami and earthquake magnitudes. Earthquake magnitude (Richter Scale) 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.25 Tsunami magnitude (m) Slight 1 0 1 2 3 Maximum wave run-up (height (h) in m) <0.50 0.500.75 1.001.50 2.003.00 4.006.00 8.0012.00

Submarine landslides are also an important trigger of tsunamis. Evidence shows that 17 major slides can be associated with tsunamis over the last 2 million years in the vicinity of Hawaii. Similarly, large slides in the Norwegian Sea 7000 years ago produced tsunamis of 10m in height, which caused widespread flooding in the North Atlantic, including parts of Scotland. The highest tsunami ever recorded was caused by a landslide in Litoya Bay, Alaska in 1958. An estimated 30.5 x106 m3 of rock fell 1000m into the bay causing a surge of water to reach a height of 500m on the other side of the bay. A similar scenario could affect the eastern seaboard of the USA with the potential (and predicted) collapse of Las Palmas and Teide in the Canary Islands. Volcanic eruptions may also trigger tsunamis. The eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 generated tsunamis of up to 40m in height, killing 27,000 people. The waves from the Krakatoa tsunami reached the Atlantic Ocean, and even the English Channel, some 32 hours after the initial explosion. The impact of a tsunami depends on intensifying conditions such as bed and shoreline topography as much as the size of the triggering event. Tsunami waves are much taller on gently sloping flat coastlines than they are on steep ones with deep water offshore. Funnel-shaped estuaries or coastlines are also more at risk than straight ones.

At-risk regions
Coastlines of tectonic instability, such as the Pacific, the east coast of Asia, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean, are especially vulnerable. Many of the worlds tsunamis have been located in the Pacific Ocean, as Figure 3 shows. Figure 3 Recorded tsunamis. Date 15 BC 1707 1 Nov 1755 21 Dec 1812 7 Nov 1837 17 May 1841 2 Apr 1868 13 Aug 1868 10 May 1877 27 Aug 1883 15 Jun 1896 Source region Santorini (Med) West Pacific Eastern Atlantic California (Pac) Chile (Pac) Kamchatka (Pac) Hawaiian Islands (Pac) PeruChile (Pac) PeruChile (Pac) Krakatau (Pac) Honshu (Pac) Wave run-up (m) ? Several 510 Several 5 <5 <3 >10 26 3040 24 Report from Crete Japan Lisbon, Portugal Santa Barbara, CA Hilo, Hawaii Hilo, Hawaii Hilo, Hawaii Arica, Peru Japan Java Sanriku, Japan

3 Feb 1923 2 Mar 1933 1 Apr 1946 4 Nov 1952 9 Mar 1957 9 July 1958 23 May 1960 28 Mar 1964 28 Feb 1967 16 Aug 1976 1983 Boxing Day 2004

Kamchatka (Pac) Honshu (Pac) Aleutian Islands (Pac) Kamchatka (Pac) Aleutian Islands (Pac) Alaska (Pac) Chile (Pac) Alaska (Pac) Eastern Atlantic Moro Gulf (Pac) NW Pacific West coast of Sumatra (Pac)

c.5 24 10 <5 <5 524 >10 6 >1 5 14.5 10

Waiakea, Hawaii Sanriku, Japan Wainaku, Hawaii Hilo, Hawaii Hilo, Hawaii Lituya Bay, Alaska Waiakea, Hawaii Crescent City, CA Casablanca Philippines Noshiro, Japan Banda Aceh

Pacific Basin
The frequency of tsunamis in the Pacific is related to the seismic activity and the expanse of ocean. Over 20 countries are at risk of tsunamis, and the travel time from the epicentre to the coastline varies from a few minutes to 24 hours. One of the most studied tsunamis occurred in April 1946, as many scientists were in the region to study the effects of nuclear testing on Bikini Atoll. The cause was an earthquake 3500km away in the Aleutian subduction zone (Alaska), which measured 7.5 on the Richter Scale. Six hours later waves up to 6m high struck Hawaii with devastating effect, causing 159 deaths and damage of US$25 million. The changes in the wave height can be seen on Figures 4 and 5. Figure 4 Changes in wave height in the 1946 Pacific tsunami.

Figure 5 Variations in wave height in the 1946 Pacific tsunami.

Another example was a severe earthquake off the coast of Chile, which caused major damage and loss of life in 1960, resulting in a 7m tsunami hitting Hawaii 15 hours later and a 10m tsunami killing some 120 people in Hokkaido and Houshu a further 7 hours later.

Tsunami warning systems

At present it is impossible to predict precisely where and when a tsunami will happen. In most cases it is only possible to raise the alarm once a tsunami has started. However, in the cases of submarine volcanoes it is possible to monitor these to predict the risk of tsunamis. For example, Kick em Jenny, north of Grenada, has erupted 10 times since the late 1970s and grown by 50m. Volcanologists believe it could cause a tsunami and threaten Venezuela in the future. The first effective tsunami warning system was developed in 1948 in the Pacific region, following the 1946 tsunami. The system consists of over 50 tidal stations and 31 seismographic stations, spread between Alaska, Hong Kong and Cape Horn. When water passes a critical threshold a warning is automatically sent to Honolulu (Hawaii). In addition, the earthquake epicentre is plotted and magnitude investigated. Its effectiveness has been improved by the use of satellites, and it is now operated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In theory, there is time to issue warnings. A tsunami off the coast of Ecuador will take 12 hours to reach Hawaii, and 20 hours to reach Japan. A tsunami from the Aleutian Islands will take 5 hours to reach Hawaii. However, the impacts will vary with shoreline morphology. Examples of other tsunami early warning systems can be found in Japan and Kamchatka (Russia). However, many LEDCs lack such early warning systems, as was so tragically evident in the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami.

Boxing Day tsunami

Figure 6 shows the extent of the Boxing Day tsunami. Use your mouse to see the death toll figures. Figure 6 The extent of the Boxing Day tsunami.

The main impact of the Boxing Day tsunami was on the western tip of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the closest inhabited area to the epicentre of the earthquake. More than 70% of the inhabitants of some coastal villages are reported to have died. Officials now estimate that about a third of the population of the provincial capital Banda Aceh died in the tsunami. By early March, in Indonesia alone, over 111,000 people had died, and more than 127,000 were still missing. The exact number of victims will never be known. A further 800,000 were reported as homeless. (See Figures 712.) Following the tsunami there were over 100 aid organisations operating in Indonesia providing emergency food, water and shelter to about 330,000 people. The Indonesian government estimated that reconstruction would cost $4.5bn (2.4bn). Donors have pledged $1.7bn so far this year. Apart from Indonesia, Sri Lanka suffered more from the tsunami than anywhere else. Southern and eastern coastlines were decimated. At least 31,000 people are known to have died, and thousands more are missing. The number of homeless people is put at between 800,000 and 1 million. Homes, crops and fishing boats have all been destroyed. At least 400,000 people have lost their jobs. Sri Lankas president, Chandrika Kumaratunga, launched a $3.5bn reconstruction drive. However, there has been a row over whether the government has given enough assistance to the north-eastern part of the country controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels. Initially, the Tamil Tigers were involved in the disaster clean-up and were very effective at bringing aid to remote villages. However, the Sri Lankan government has bypassed the Tamil Tigers in the aid operation, and it is likely that ethnic inequalities will be increased as a result of the aid operation.

Figure 7 The tsunami coming ashore.

Figure 8 The sea surging up a beach.

Figure 9 The aftermath of the tsunami.

Figure 10 Evidence of the loss of livelihoods.

Figure 11 Tourists watch the retreat of the first wave back out to sea, before the second wave struck.

Figure 12 A thriving beach bar has been half-filled with sand brought by the tsunami.

Indias Andaman and Nicobar Islands were also badly affected. At least 1894 of the islands 400,000 people were killed and more than 5500 are missing 4500 from Katchall Island alone. The economy was also badly affected. Salt water contaminated many sources of fresh water and destroyed large areas of arable land. Most of the islands jetties have also been destroyed. The relief operation was hampered by the actions of the Indian government which refused assistance from international aid agencies because of the presence of a military base on one island and indigenous tribes on some others. The military has been building extra landing fields on the islands to help with relief. About 12,000 people have been moved to relief camps on larger islands. The south-east coastline of India, especially along the state of Tamil Nadu, was the worst affected area on the mainland. Over 8800 people were confirmed dead in mainland India, 7968 of them in Tamil Nadu and almost 600 in Pondicherry. Thousands more remain unaccounted for. At one point, there were over 140,000 Indians, mostly from fishing families, in relief centres. Repairing the damage here is expected to cost about $1.2 billion, but India is in fact providing aid to other countries hit by the tsunami, including medical workers, supplies and cash. In other countries the number of deaths was not as high. For example, along the west coast of Thailand, including tourist resorts near Phuket, more than 5300 were killed including more than 1700 foreigners from a total of 36 countries. Thailand has not asked for disaster relief aid, but it has requested technical help to take DNA samples from the bodies to identify the dead. This may take up to a year to carry out. In the Maldives, 20 of the 199 inhabited islands were described as totally destroyed. At least 82 people died and 26 remain missing. About 12,500 people were displaced. The shallowness of the water around the coastlines limited the tsunamis power, but flooding was extensive. A sea wall protecting the Maldives capital, Male, prevented half the city being destroyed. Many luxury resorts were closed for months. UN agencies have provided $400,000 in emergency funds and have distributed water and hygiene kits to 2500 households. Aid organisations plan to provide rice and canned fish and conduct a national immunisation campaign. The UN Development Programme is helping to co-ordinate the use of the $19m pledged for reconstruction efforts. Elsewhere the impacts were more limited. Although Malaysia lies close to the epicentre, much of its coastline was shielded by Sumatra. Nevertheless, 68 people died. In Burma, the worst affected area was the Irrawaddy Delta, inhabited by subsistence farmers and fishing families. Some 59 people died, although the World Food Programme (WFP) says this may be an underestimate. Hundreds of Burmese migrant workers living in Thailand are also thought to have died. In Bangladesh only two people were killed. The impacts in Africa were varied. Somalia was the worst affected country, with damage concentrated in the region of Puntland, on the tip of the Horn of Africa. The water destroyed 1180 homes, smashed 2400 boats and left freshwater wells and reservoirs unusable. Between 150 and 200 Somalis died, thousands were made homeless and many fishermen were unaccounted for. As many as 30,000 people may have been displaced. The UN called for $13m to help tsunami victims. However, Somalia has few roads, presenting aid agencies with a major challenge. Ten people were killed in Tanzania, whereas in Kenya there was only one death. The news of the tsunami reached Kenya and warnings were issued telling people to get away from the shoreline and head for high ground. Similarly, only one person was killed in the Seychelles.

Ecological impacts
There has been a range of ecological impacts caused by the Boxing Day tsunami. The force of the tsunami drove approximately 100,000 tonnes of water onto every 1.5m of coastline and therefore caused considerable erosion in some parts and devastating deposition in others. The intrusion of salt water has polluted fresh water sources and farmland sometimes as far as several kilometres inland. Coral reefs and beds of sea grass which form the basis of many marine ecosystems have been damaged, and large swathes of mangrove have been uprooted.

Of particular concern are the endangered sea turtles of Sri Lanka and some of the Indian islands. On the east coast of Sri Lanka almost all of the hatcheries were destroyed when the sandy beaches were washed away. On a single beach approximately only 400 out of the 20,000 turtle hatchlings survived. The destruction of the sea defences, such as mangrove, and the increasing human impact on the coastal zone, such as shrimp and fish farms, beach development, overfishing, and climate change, mean that the chances for beaches and ecosystems to recover are very limited. The recovery will be a very long and slow process.

Preparing for the next big one lessons from the Boxing Day tsunami, 2004
Relatively few people in the southern Asian region were aware of the impacts of the 1883 tsunami caused by the explosion of Krakatoa. It is normal for memories of disasters to fade quickly. It allows people to rebuild and get on with their lives, and it offers a path towards normality. However, once the memory fades, the lessons learnt from the disaster also fade. However, the startling impact of the 2004 tsunami, combined with the vivid images that were presented in the media, means that the memory of this event will remain long enough to drive the establishment of a tsunami warning system and an education system. These should both help in reducing the death toll in the next mega-tsunami to hit the region. There is at present a real determination on the part of geologists, geophysicists and people in the region to develop an early warning system. Moreover, there is commitment (albeit at a spoken level rather than a financial one) from governments to put it in place. The interest is not just limited to countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. Along with the 12 Indian Ocean nations that lost people, persons from a further 30 or so states were also killed whilst on holiday, business or visiting friends and relatives. The UK Prime Minister Tony Blair announced the establishment of a working group to advise him on the mechanisms needed to detect and provide early warning signs on natural hazards. Scientists believe that there is real scope for a multidisciplinary approach to hazard management. For example, by combining knowledge of volcanic eruption prediction with land-use management, planning regulations, construction regulations, effective education systems and warning systems, the risk from tsunamis in the region would be greatly reduced. Such a process relies on being ready for the event rather than reacting to the event. Nevertheless, getting the message across to the population of the Indian Ocean basin is one thing, getting them to act is another. The World Bank estimated that losses caused by natural disasters in the 1990s could have been cut by US$280 billion (150 billion) through advance spending on hazard preparation and management of just US$40 billion. For example, had there been a tsunami education plan in Banda Aceh, it is likely that the death toll from the tsunami would have been cut by tens of thousands. Similarly, had building inspectors in Bam, Iran, been trained and paid, the death toll from the earthquake in 2003 could have been much less. As a result of the exemplified need for detection and management systems in the Atlantic region, the British governments chief scientist, Sir David King, has called for an intergovernmental panel to look at the potential impact of a mega-tsunami caused by the unstable Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Island of La Palma.

Conclusion
Tsunamis are among the worlds most terrifying hazards. The Boxing Day tsunami has brought increased awareness of the force that nature can wield to the world. Owing to the loss of life among tourists, it became a global disaster, killing people from nearly 50 countries. Lessons have been learnt from this tragedy, and the chance to build a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean is one of them. Without such systems, the chances of a repeat will always remain. There may even be tsunamis in parts of the world which are considered safe. It will always be too late after the event.