BI TP CUI K

I/ Cc gi nh cn phi xem xt theo bi

Lng chu nh hng ca gio dc v kinh nghim lm vic theo chiu hng thun, tc

l ngi i hc nhiu hn v ngi c kinh nghim lm vic nhiu hn s c lng cao hn.

Kinh nghim c hiu ng tc ng bin gim dn, tc l nhng ngi c nhiu kinh

nghim th mc tng lng khi tng thm kinh nghim s t hn ngi c t kinh nghim
hn.

C s phn bit v mc lng gia nam v n trong th trng lao ng v nam ni

chung c mc lng cao hn n.

II/ Xy dng m hnh v gii thch cc thnh phn.
Theo phng trnh (m hnh) Mincer nguyn gc (1974), ta c
Ln (wage) = o + 1*school + 2 * exper + 3 * exper2
Tuy nhin, theo yu cu bi, ta kho st thm tc ng ca gii tnh n mc lng. Do ,
phng trnh s c dng sau:
Ln (wage) = o + 1*school + 2 * exper + 3 * exper2 + 4 * male
Trong :
Wage:

mc lng theo gi (USD)

Ln (wage): bin ph thuc m t phn trm thay i lng theo cc bin c lp

Exper:

s nm kinh nghim (nm)

School:

s nm i hc (nm)

Male:

c gi tr 1 nu l nam gii

III/ Xy dng phng trnh ca m hnh hi quy v phn tch kt qu

Bng m t s liu
Descriptive Statistics
exper

male

school

Exper2

Ln.wage

3296

3296

3296

3296

3296

Range

17.00

1.00

13.00

323.00

7.30

Minimum

1.00

.00

3.00

1.00

-2.57

Maximum

18.00

1.00

16.00

324.00

4.73

8.0419

.5240

11.6302

69.9181

1.5891

2.29086

.49950

1.65711

38.61073

.62702

5.248

.250

2.746

1490.788

.393

Mean
Std. Deviation
Variance

Valid N (listwise)
3296

a/ Trc ht, chng ta cn kho st mi tng quan tuyn tnh gia cc bin thng qua bng
Correlations

Correlations
exper
exper

Pearson Correlation

male
1

.129

Sig. (2-tailed)
N
male

3296

Pearson Correlation

school

.129

Exper2

Ln.wage
**

-.193

Exper2
**

.975**

.088

.000

.000

.000

.000

3296

3296

3296

3296

**

**

.134**

.000

.000

.000

**

-.119

.174

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

3296

3296

3296

3296

3296

-.193**

-.119**

.277**

-.259**

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.000

.000

.000

3296

3296

3296

3296

3296

Pearson Correlation

.088**

.174**

.277**

.061**

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.000

.000

3296

3296

3296

3296

3296

**

**

**

**

Pearson Correlation

Ln.wage

school
**

Pearson Correlation

.975

.134

-.259

.001

.061

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.000

.000

.001

3296

3296

3296

3296

3296

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

C th thy rng s tng quan gia bin ph thuc v cc bin c lp l kh thp. iu ny

bc u cho thy cc bin ph thuc s gii thch rt t trong m hnh ny. Tuy nhin, ta cn
phi chy m hnh hi qui kt lun chnh xc hn.
S tng quan gia cc bin c lp vi nhau cng kh thp, cho thy nhiu kh nng s
khng xy ra hin tng a cng tuyn. Tuy nhin, c mt lu l tng quan gia bn exper
v exper2 l rt cao n gin v bin sau c xy dng t bin u.
b/ Sau y, chng ta s nh gi ph hp v kim nh ph hp ca m hnh qua hai
bng Model summary v ANOVA
Model Summaryb
Model

.368a

R Square
.135

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate
.134

.58339

Durbin-Watson
1.884

a. Predictors: (Constant), school, male, exper, Exper2

b. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage

Vi kt qu ca R-square (0.135) v Adjust R-square (0.134) cho thy cc bin c lp trong

m hnh ch c th gii thch rt thp cho bin ph thuc (13.5% hoc 13.4%) nh cp ban
u. Vi b s liu chng ta ang kho st, kinh nghim, s nm i hc v gii tnh tc ng n
mc lng l khng cao

ANOVAb
Model
1

Sum of Squares
Regression

df

Mean Square

175.376

43.844

Residual

1120.087

3291

.340

Total

1295.463

3295

Sig.
.000a

128.821

a. Predictors: (Constant), school, male, exper, Exper2

b. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage

kim nh ph hp ca m hnh, kim nh gi thuyt Ho: 1= 2 = 3 = 4 = 0

Trong bng ANOVA, vi gi tr F ln (128) so vi gi tr ti hn ca mc ngha 5% v Sig.
rt nh. Do , ta c th bc b gi thuyt Ho, m hnh hi qui tuyn tuyn bi ca chng ta l
ph hp v c th s dng c.
c/ n y, ta c th vit phng trnh hi quy bi theo bng Coefficients:
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized

Standardized

Coefficients

Coefficients

Model
B
1

(Constant)

Std. Error

-.305

.103

exper

.059

.021

male

.247

Exper2
school

Sig.

Beta

95.0% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

-2.971

.003

-.507

-.104

.215

2.805

.005

.018

.100

.021

.197

11.968

.000

.206

.287

-.002

.001

-.093

-1.198

.231

-.004

.001

.120

.007

.318

18.116

.000

.107

.133

a. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage

Phng trnh gii thch s ph thuc ca thay i mc lng vo s nm i hc, kinh nghim
v gii tnh c biu din nh sau:
Ln (wage) = -0.305 + 0.12*school + 0.059*exper 0.002*exper2 + 0.247*male ( 1 )
Din gii m hnh:
-

Gi s cc yu t khc khng i, nu s nm i hc (school) tng 1 n v th mc

lng s tng 0.12%.

Gi s cc yu t khc khng i, nu kinh nghim (exper) tng 1 n v th mc lng

s tng 0.059%

Nu i tng l nam (male = 1), phng trnh c dng:

Ln (wage) = -0.058 + 0.12*school + 0.059*exper 0.002*exper2

Nu i tng l n (male = 0), phng trnh c dng:

Ln (wage) = -0.305 + 0.12*school + 0.059*exper 0.002*exper2

Vi Sig. ca exper, male v school < 0.05, ta c th kt lun 1, 2, 4 c ngha thng k.

Hai gi nh Lng chu nh hng ca gio dc v kinh nghim lm vic theo chiu hng

thun, tc l ngi i hc nhiu hn v ngi c kinh nghim lm vic nhiu hn s c lng

cao hn v C s phn bit v mc lng gia nam v n trong th trng lao ng v nam
ni chung c mc lng cao hn n l hon ton chnh xc.
Tuy nhin, vi Sig (exper2) = 0.231 > 0.05, 3 khng c ngha thng k v chng ta cha
th kt lun kinh nghim c hiu ng tc ng bin gim dn.
d/ gii quyt vn trn, ta x l b s liu theo mt hng khc bng cch phn nhm
s nm i hc (Nhm 1: 1 9; Nhm 2: 10 12; Nhm 3: 13 16). Ta c cc bng kt qu sau
khi phn nhm nh sau:
Model Summaryb
Model
R

R Square
a

.362

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

.131

.130

Durbin-Watson

.58497

1.915

a. Predictors: (Constant), Schoolrange, male, exper, Exper2

b. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage
ANOVAb
Model
1

Sum of Squares
Regression

df

Mean Square

169.320

42.330

Residual

1126.143

3291

.342

Total

1295.463

3295

Sig.
.000a

123.703

a. Predictors: (Constant), Schoolrange, male, exper, Exper2

b. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage
Coefficientsa
Model

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
B

Std. Error

(Constant)

.249

.089

exper

.085

.021

male

.240

Exper2

Coefficients
Beta

Collinearity Statistics
t

Sig.

Tolerance

VIF

2.799

.005

.310

4.103

.000

.046

21.633

.021

.191

11.637

.000

.977

1.024

-.003

.001

-.189

-2.474

.013

.045

22.203

.349

.020

.304

17.570

.000

.884

1.131

Schoolrange

a. Dependent Variable: Ln.wage

Nh vy, sau khi phn nhm, m hnh vn ph hp v c th s dng vi mt cht bin i

trong kh nng gii thch ca cc bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc l (13.1% - R-square hoc
13% - Adjusted R-square).
Khi ny, phng trnh hi quy mi c biu din nh sau:
Ln (wage) = 0.249 + 0.349*schoolrange + 0.085*exper 0.003*exper2 + 0.240*male ( 2 )

Vi Sig. (schoolrange, exper, exper2, male), 1, 2, 3, 4 u c ngha thng k. Do , ta

c th kt lun Kinh nghim c hiu ng tc ng bin gim dn, tc l nhng ngi c
nhiu kinh nghim th mc tng lng khi tng thm kinh nghim s t hn ngi c t kinh
nghim hn