Nh cc bn bit, chuyn ny ni v xc sut. Nhng trc khi ni v vn , chng ta hy cng im qua mt cht v t hp v chnh hp.

hp. Phn 1: T HP CHNH HP I/ L thuyt 1) Cc qui tc m c bn a) Qui tc cng: Gi s 1 cng vic c th thc hin theo phng n A hoc phng n B. C n cch thc hin phng n A v c m cch thc hin phng n B th cng vic c th thc hin bi m+n cch. p dng cho cng vic vi nhiu phng n: Gi s 1 cng vic c th thc hin theo 1 trong k phng n A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak . C n1 cch thc hin phng n A1 , n 2 cch thc hin phng n A2 , n k cch thc hin phng n Ak . Khi cng vic cng vic c th thc hin theo n1 + n 2 + n3 + ... + nk cch. b) Qui tc nhn: Gi s 1 cng vic c th thc hin theo 2 cng on A v B. Cng on A c th lm theo n cch. Vi mi cch thc hin cng on A th cng on B c th lam thwo m cch. Khi o cng vic c th thc hin theo mn cch. Qui tc nhn cho cng vic c nhiu cng on c pht biu nh sau: Gi s 1 cng vic no bao gm k cng on A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak . Cng on A1 c th thc hin theo n1 cch, cng on A2 c th thc hin theo n 2 cch, , cng on Ak c th thc hin theo n k cch. Khi cng vic c th thc hin theo n1 + n2 + n3 + ... + nk cch. 2) Hon v Khi nim: Cho tp A c n (n 1) phn t. khi sp xp n phn t ny theo 1 th t , ta c 1 hon v cc phn t ca tp A ( gi tt l mt hon v ca A ) S cc hon v ca tp hp c n phn t l
Pn = n! = n( n 1)( n 2)... 1

3) Chnh hp Khi nim: Cho tp A gm n phn t v s k vi 1 k n . Khi ly ra k phn t ca A v sp xp theo 1 th t ta c 1 chnh hp chp k ca n phn t ca A ( gi tt l mt chnh hp chp k ca A ) k S cc chnh hp chp k ca 1 tp hp c n phn t k hiu l An S cc chnh hp chp k ca 1 tp hp c n phn t (1 k n) l k An = n(n 1)( n 2)...( n k + 1) (*) Nhn xt: * 2 chnh hp khc nhau khi v ch khi hoc c t nht 1 phn t ca chnh hp ny m khng l phn t ca chnh hp kia, hoc cc phn t ca 2 chnh hp ging nhau nhng dc sp xp theo th t khc nhau. * T nh ngha trn, ta thy 1 hon v ca tp hp A c n phn t chnh l 1 chnh hp chp n ca A. Ch Vi 0 < k < n th ta c th vit cng thc trn di dng
k An =

n! (**) ( n k )!

Chng minh: Vic thit lp 1 chnh hp chp k ca tp A c n phn t l 1 cng vic gm k cng on. Cng on 1 l chn phn t xp vo v tr th nht: c n cch thc hin. Sau khi thc hin cng on 1, cng on 2 l chn phn t xp vo v tr th 2: c n - 1 cch thc hin . Cng on cui cng ( cng on th k ) c 1

n k + 1 cch thc hin. Theo quy tc nhn, ta c n( n 1)( n 2)...( n k +1) cch lp 1 chnh hp chp k ca tp A c n phn t, tc l c n( n 1)( n 2)...( n k +1) chnh hp chp k ca tp A c n phn t 0 Ta qui c: 0! = 1 v An = 1 . Khi cng thc (**) ng cho c k = 0 v k = n. hay cng thc (**) ng vi mi k tha mn k Z v 0 k n . 4) T hp Khi nim: Cho tp A c n phn t v s nguyn k vi 1 k n . Mi tp con ca A c k phn t c gi l 1 t hp chp k ca n phn t ca A ( gi tt l 1 t hp chp k ca A ) Nh vy lp 1 t hp chp k ca A chnh l ly ra k phn t ca A ( khng quan tm n th t ) k S cc t hp chp k ca 1 tp hp c n phn t k hiu l C n S cc t hp chp k ca 1 tp hp c n phn t (1 k n) l: k An n(n 1)( n 2)...( n 3) k (1) Cn = = k! k! Chng minh: Theo nh ngha, ta c mi hon v ca 1 t hp chp k ca A cho ta 1 chnh hp chaapjk ca A. Do , t 1 Ak k k k An = k!C n hay C n = n t hp chp k ca A, ta lp c k! chnh hp chp k ca A. Vy k! Ch : Vi 1 k n ta c th vit cng thc trn di dng:
k Cn =

n! (2) k!( n k )!

Ta quy c: C n = 1 (coi rng l t hp chp 0 ca tp hp c n phn t ). Vi quy c ny cng thc (2) cng ng vi k = 0. Vy cng thc (2) ng vi mi k vi k Z v 0 k n .
0

5) 2 tnh cht c bn ca s C n * T/c 1: Cho s nguyn dng n v s nguyn k vi 0 k n . Khi

k n C n = C n k

* T/c 2 ( hng ng thc Pascan ): Cho s nguyn dng n v s nguyn k vi 1 k n . Khi

k k k C n = C n + C n 1

Chng minh:
n k * Ta c: C n =

k 1 * Ta c C n

k k C n + C n 1 =

n( n 1)...( n k + 1) + kn ( n 1)...( n k + 2) k! n( n 1)...( n k + 2)( n k +1 + k ) = k! ( n +1) n( n 1)...( n k + 2) k = = C n +1 k!

n! n! k = = Cn ( n k )! ( n ( n k ))! ( n k )! k! n( n 1)...( n k + 2) n( n 1)...( n k +1) k = v C n = ( k 1)! k!

6) Nh thc Niu tn
0 1 k n (a + b) n = C n a n + C n a n 1b + ... + C n a n k b k + ... + C n b n

k = C n a n k b k ( quy c a 0 = b 0 = 1 ) k =0

Nh ta thy, cng thc trn l khai trin ca ( a +b) n theo ly tha gim ca a v ly tha tng ca b. Ta cng c th vit khai trin trn theo ly tha gim ca b v ly tha tng ca a. Khai trin (a b) n suy ra t khai trin ca ( a +b) n nh sau Nu n chn:
( a b) n = ( a + (b) )
n k =0
n

k 0 1 n n = ( 1) k C n a n k b k = C n a n C n a n 1b + ... C n 1 ab n 1 + C n b n

Nu n l:

( a b) n = ( a + (b) )
n k =0

k 0 1 n n = ( 1) k C n a n k b k = C n a n + C n a n 1b ... + C n 1 ab n 1 C n b n

Phn 2: XC SUT 1) Php th ngu nhin v khng gian mu a) Php th ngu nhin Php th ngu nhin hay php th l 1 th nghim hay 1 hnh ng m: * Kt qu khng d on trc c * C th xc nh c tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy ra. Php th c k hiu bng T b) Khng gian mu Khng gian mu l tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th c ca php th . K hiu l 2) Bin c * Mt bin c A lin quan n php th T l bin c m vic xy ra hay khng xy ra ty thuc vo kt qu ca T Mi kt qu ca php th T lm cho bin c A xy ra c gi l 1 kt qu thun li cho A * Tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho A c k hiu l . Khi ngi ta ni bin c A c m t bi tp A
A

* Bin c chc chn l bin c lun xy ra khi thc hin php th T. Bin c chc chn c m t bi tp v c k hiu l . * Bin c khng th l bin c chc chn khng xy ta khi thc hin php th. Bin c khng th c m t bi tp v c k hiu l . 3) Xc sut ca bin c Trong cuc sng hang ngy, khi ni v bin c, ta thng ni bin c nay c nhiu kh nng xy ra, bin c kia co t kh nng xy ra. Trong ton hc, ngi ta nh lng cc kh nng ny bng cch gn cho mi bin c 1 s khng m, nh hn hoc bng 1, gi l xc sut ca bin c . Xc sut ca bin c A c k hiu bi P(A). N o lng kh nng khch quan xut hin bin c A. * nh ngha c in ca xc sut: Gi s php th T c 1 s hu hn kt qu c th ng kh nng. Khi xc sut ca 1 bin c A lien qua n T l t s kt qu thun li cho A v s kt qu c th.
P ( A) = A

Ch : T nh ngha trn ta suy ra * 0 P ( A) 1 3

* P () =1, P () = 0 4) Cc quy tc tnh xc sut a) Bin c hp: Cho 2 bin c A v B. Bin c A hoc B xy ra, k hiu l A B , c gi l hp ca 2 bin c A v B. Nu A v B ln lt l cc kt qu thun li cho A v B th tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho A B l A B . Tng qut: Cho k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak . Bin c C t nht 1 trong cc bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak xy ra k hiu l A1 A2 ... Ak , c gi l hp ca k bin c . b) Bin c xung khc Cho 2 bin c A v B. 2 bin c A v B c gi l xung khc nu bin c ny xy ra th bin c kia khng xy ra. 2 bin c A v B l 2 bin c xung khc nu v ch nu A B = . c) Quy tc cng xc sut tnh xc sut ca bin c hp, ta cn n quy tc cng xc sut sau: Nu 2 bin c A v B xung khc th xc sut A hoc B xy ra l:
P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P ( B )

p dng cho nhiu bin c: Cho k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak i mt xung khc. Khi
P ( A1 A2 ... Ak ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + ... + P ( Ak )

d) Bin c i Cho A l 1 bin c. Khi , bin c khng xy ra A , k hiu l A , c gi l bin c i ca A. Nu A l tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho A th tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho A l

\ A . Ta ni A

v A l 2 bin c i nhau. Ch : 2 bin c i nhau l 2 bin c xung khc tuy nhin 2 bin c xung khc cha chc l 2 bin c i nhau. nh l: Cho bin c A., xc sut ca bin c i A l
P ( A) =1 P ( A)

5) Quy tc nhn xc sut a) Bin c giao Cho 2 bin c A v B. Bin c c A v B cng xy ra, k hiu l AB, c gi l giao ca 2 bin c A v B. N A v B ln lt l tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho A v B th tp hp cc kt qu thun li cho AB l A B . Tng qut: Cho k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak . Bin c tt c k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak u xy ra, k hiu l A1 A2 ... Ak , c gi l giao ca k bin c . b) Bin c c lp 2 bin c A v B c gi l c lp vi nhau nu vic xy ra hay khng xy ra ca bin c ny khng lm nh hng ti xc sut xy ra ca bin c kia. NX: Nu bin c A,B c lp vi nhau th A v B ; A v B; A v B cng l bin c c lp vi nhau. Tng qut: Cho k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak ; k bin c ny c gi l c lp vi nhau nu vic xy ra hay khng xy ra ca mi nhm bin c ty trong cc bin c cho khng lm nh hng ti xc sut xy ra ca cc bin c cn li. c) Quy tc nhn xc sut Nu 2 bin c A v B c lp vi nhau th 4

P ( AB ) = P ( A) P ( B ) P ( AB ) P ( A) P ( B ) th 2 bin c A v B khng c lp vi nhau. NX: T quy tc nhn xc sut ta thy: Nu Ngc lai nu P ( AB ) = P ( A) P ( B ) th A vafB c lp vi nha.

Tng qut: Nu k bin c A1 , A2 ,... Ak c lp vi nhau th

P ( A1 A2 ... Ak ) = P ( A1 ) P ( A2 )... P ( Ak )

6) Cc tnh cht ca xc sut T cc nh ngha ca xc sut ta c th suy ra cc tnh cht sau: Nu A B th P ( A) P ( B ) Nu A l bin c bt k th 0 P ( A) 1 Xc sut ca bin c chc chn bng 1: P ( A) =1 Xc sut ca bin c khng th bng khng: P ( A) = 0 Nu B l phn b ca bin c A th P ( B ) = a P ( A) Nu A v B l 2 bin c xung khc th P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) Nu A v B l 2 bin c bt k th P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( A B) Nu A,B v C l 3 bin c bt k th

P( A B C ) = P ( A) + P( B) + P(C ) P( A B ) P ( B C ) P (C A) + P ( A B C )