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Indian Journal of Geosciences, Volume 63, No. 3 July-September, 2009; pp.

327-332

Seasonal bias for the occurrence of shallow-focus earthquakes in the Indian tropics
Basab Mukhopadhyay*, Sujit Dasgupta and Anshuman Acharyya
Geological Survey of India, 27, Jawaharlal Nehru Road, Central Headquarters, Kolkata 700 016, India *Corresponding author. E-mail: basabmukhopadhyay@yahoo.com

Abstract: Incidence of shallow-focus (15 km) earthquakes in Indian subcontinent for magnitude mb 4.0 throughout the tropical seasons from January to December has been analysed for the earthquakes within time-period 1960 - June 2008. Earthquake occurrence has a peak in March. We propose a genetic correlation to explain such pattern following volume dilatancy diffusion model. The infiltration of surface water within dilated seismogenic fault zones during rainy season initiates an enhanced pore pressure front by fluid-diffusion mechanism. This diffusion takes a phase lag of 9 months from the initiation month (June) to create pore-pressure perturbation on the seismogenic surfaces, and generates peak seismicity in March next year. Such seasonal fluctuations in pore pressure coupled with the periodic alteration in the gravitational pull due to Earths rotation are some of the probable factors responsible for yielding maximum number of shallow-focus earthquakes in March. Keywords: Indian subcontinent, shallow-focus earthquake, seasonal variation, rainwater, pore pressure, dilatancy-diffusion model

Introduction
The relationship between earthquake triggered by the stress developed during Earths surface processes and influence of celestial bodies is a matter of research over decades. Scientists have correlated triggering of earthquake with accumulation of strain, temporarily or permanently accrued within the fault zone. A correlation between occurrence of major earthquakes, with time (hour of the day), lunar declination, lunar phase and tidal cycles has been demonstrated by many workers (Weems and Perry, 1989; Crockett et al., 2006). Furthermore, a possible association between occurrences of earthquakes and rainy season has been documented for northeast India (Tiwari and Rao, 2001; Tiwari et al., 2004) and for other places (Hainzl et al., 2006). It has also been observed that incidences of earthquakes are more in winter months as compared to summer months in the Nepal Himalaya (Bollinger et al., 2007). This observation was explained on the basis of surface hydraulic loading and fluid diffusion phenomena in summer months that take six-month phase lag to enhance seismicity in winter. The factor that probably makes the fault surface to fail by Coulomb criteria and generate earthquake in shallow- to mid-crustal level may be related to changes in pore pressure by fluid-diffusion mechanism (see Scholz, 2002) and by infiltration of subsurface

waters into fault zone at great depth during episodes of seismic faulting (Lin et al., 2003). With this background, first we have attempted from known Indian examples to ascertain a critical depth within which triggering of earthquake may be controlled by induced pore pressure and second, a possible connection between seasonal fluctuations in pore pressure, gravitational pull and regionalscale seismicity has been worked out.

Pore-Pressure Influence vis--vis ShallowFocus Earthquakes (15 km)


The influence of pore pressure to nucleate earthquakes has been best studied in the areas of reservoir-triggered seismicity. In India, the most prominent and well-studied site is the KoynaWarna reservoir area in the Deccan plateau within the stable continental shield. Earthquakes have started occurring soon after the initiation of filling of the reservoir (lake) in 1961 and have continued to date. The largest triggered earthquake of M 6.3 occurred on 10 th December 1967 followed by 17 earthquakes of M 5.0, over 150 earthquakes of M > 4.0 and several thousand smaller magnitude quakes (Gupta, 2005). Scientists believe that the change in pore pressure by porefluid diffusion processes during filling and draw-down phases

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of the KoynaWarna reservoirs is responsible for generating such periodic seismicity (Gupta et al., 1972; Gupta, 1992, 2005; Athavale, 1975; Talwani, 1995, 1997; Chadha et al., 1997; Mandal et al., 1998; Rastogi and Mandal, 1999; Rajendran and Harish, 2000; Rao and Singh, 2008). Peaks in earthquake activity generally occur during September to December i.e. two to three months after the start of filling of reservoir due to time-dependent growth of pore pressure front that initiated a delayed failure along the mature fault zones (Rajendran and Harish, 2000). It is postulated by the workers cited above that change in pore pressure initiated by fluctuations of hydrostatic load in the reservoir, is one of the mechanisms that triggers earthquake in Koyna. Maximum depth of seismicity in Koyna is observed up to a depth of 15 km. From the above, it can be inferred that the change in pore pressure to induce brittle failure along fault zones (mature or immature) is confined within a depth of 15 km in Indian subcontinent. Therefore, a model depth of 15 km has been considered to select earthquake events from the catalogue covering entire Indian subcontinent for further analysis.

Seasonal Pattern of Shallow-Focus Events


Earthquake catalogue for the Indian subcontinent between latitude 1- 37N and longitude 68-98E, over a period from 1960 to June 2008, with magnitude (mb) 4.0 and focal depth 15 km has been selected. Moreover, all aftershocks spatially and temporally related to mainshocks were deleted to generate a comprehensive catalogue containing 1709 earthquake events. The number of earthquakes occurred in each month from January to December for entire data period 1960 June 2008 is calculated. The disposition of earthquake epicentres (with mb 4.0) and prominent seismogenic/tectonic faults/surfaces are plotted (Fig. 1a). The number of earthquake incidences from January to December (Fig. 1b) and focal depth distribution of the earthquakes (Fig. 1c) are illustrated. The earthquake occurrence data against months indicates a peak in March. The occurrence dips in the summer - rainy seasons (April- October) and also in winter (November- February) with a background seismicity. Earthquakes generated by induced stress through plate motion at plate interface or within plates form the background seismicity observed in each month.

Fig. 1. (a) Plot of earthquakes (mb 4.0 and focal depth 15 km) of Indian subcontinent for data period 1960 June 2008. The tectonic planes are taken from Seismotectonic Atlas of India and Its Environs (Dasgupta et al., 2000) (b) month-wise occurrence of earthquakes and (c) their focal depth distribution.

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Generally, the fault zones are filled with entrapped fluid. The entrapped fluid within such fault zones increases the pore pressure (p) and reduces the effective stress (e) by the following equation : e = a - p ... (1) where a is applied stress and is the Kronecker delta (see Scholz, 2002). The condition for frictional failure on planar surface by rewriting the Coulomb criteria is = 0 + (n p) ... (2) where is the strength of the fault or the shear strength required for failure; 0 is the cohesion; is the coefficient of friction; n is the normal stress across the fault plane and p is the pore pressure within the fault zone (see Scholz, 2002). An increase in shear stress () or a decrease in normal stress (n) or an increase in pore pressure (p) may cause the slip in the fault zone to produce earthquakes (Rajendran and Harish, 2000; Sibson, 2002). Increase in pore pressure will move Mohr circle of stress towards its origin and favour triggering of seismicity. Furthermore, chemical weakening of fault zone by flow of aqueous fluid is common in high-pore-pressure zones through stress corrosion cracking or enhanced crystal plasticity by hydrolytic weakening of silicates (Hickman et al., 1995).

Seasonal Occurrence vis--vis Pore Pressure and Earths Rotational Bias


The earthquake occurrence data against months (Fig. 1b) indicates a characteristic major peak in March, and flat occurrences during summer - rainy seasons (April October) and in winter (November-February). We may correlate this cyclic pattern with seasonal variation in dilatancy, pore pressure and gravitational pull within mature/immature fault zones. More precisely, this pattern can be explained in the light of the dilatancy diffusion model originally developed by Nur (1972) and later elaborated by Whitcomb et al. (1973) and Scholz et al. (1973). This volume dilatancy model assumes that dilatancy occurs within the stressed volume surrounding an impending rupture zone. In active fault zones, dilatancy (increase in pore space by shearing; Sibson et al., 1975) is generated by volume expansion through opening and widening of cracks prior to rupture (Anderson and Whitcomb, 1973) and production of extension veins and grain-boundary sliding by induced tectonic stresses. Dilated spaces are generally filled with either water or rock fluids (Ramsey and Huber, 1987). It is also known that increase in pore pressure along fault zone results into decrease in effective stress and promote slip along the fault plane as explained by equations 1 and 2. The gravitational pull between the Sun and the Earth in the Northern Hemisphere (study area is a small part of it) is not constant but changes periodically within a calendar year as the position of the Earth vis-a-vis the Sun changes. The

position of the Earth with respect to the Sun can be described by way of winter solstice (December), spring equinox (March), summer solstice (June) and fall equinox (September) (Microsoft Encarta Encyclopedia, 2001). The Earth is relatively closest to the Sun and its orbital speed is highest during winter solstice. In contrary, during summer solstice, the Sun is furthest from the Earth and Earths orbital speed is least. Hence, the gravitational pull is highest and lowest during the winter- and summer solstice respectively. During rainy season (June to October), a reasonable amount of water in the form of rain / ground water from surface (runoff / stream / river) and subsurface reservoir enters into active fault zones by infiltration through interconnected pore space and fracture systems within crystalline crust. Due to least gravitational pull in June (summer solstice), this additional water freely interacts with the fluid already present within the fault zones and reduces the pore pressure of the surroundings. As the dilatancy rate is high in seismically active zones, the pore fluid diffusion cannot maintain the pore pressure resulting into dilatancy hardening as per dilatancy diffusion model (Nur, 1972). Furthermore, a reduction in the pore pressure enhances the static frictional resistance (see equation 2) across the fault surfaces, thus strengthening the fault zone temporarily, and delaying failure to generate earthquakes. This phenomenon reduces the number of earthquake occurrences in summer rainy seasons (April October). During November-February, the penetrated water settles down and through capillary action distributes thoroughly within the dilated space of the fault zones. The steady pore-fluid diffusion starts building the pore pressure up and consecutively enhances the chance of delayed failure of fault zones (see equation 2). The dry season of winter months (December February) further enhances the capillary action within rock mass and thus augment the resulting pore-pressure diffusion. The effective stress within the fault zones is also decreased by the additional stress induced by increasing gravitational pull in winter. Seismic failure will occur when the static frictional resistance cannot withhold the increasing effective stress across the fault zone (see Ramsay and Huber, 1987). This failure results into increase in number of earthquakes in March in shallow crustal level within 10 km depth (Fig. 1c). In explaining the spatio-temporal pattern of induced seismicity using the mechanical effect of pore-pressure diffusion, Talwani and Acree (1984) have proposed a mathematical relationship between as and delayed time (t), as = L2 / t ----------------------------------(3), where as is seismic hydraulic diffusivity and L is distance between the source and pore-pressure front. A range of as is computed and a characteristic value of 5104 cm2/s applicable to most regions is suggested (Talwani and Acree, 1984). Buying this logic and mathematics, if the pore pressure front starts building in June from the surface, it will take 289 days to reach

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a 10km depth to generate induced earthquakes as delayed response. This 289 days delay is equivalent to ~ 9 months from June. Thus, the induced earthquake will occur in March that is substantiated by the real occurrence data. From the above analysis, it can be said that porepressure front takes 9 months from the beginning of rainy season (June) to generate a time-dependent delayed loading on seismogenic surfaces. This delayed loading generates more earthquakes in March. Further, the sudden release of shear stress in the form of earthquake is likely to bring the rock particles in closer contact, reducing the dilated space and injecting the pore fluid upward in the higher level (least pressure zone) of the fault zone. This fluid is squeezed out by squirt-flow mechanism of thin pores deformed by passing waves (see Dvorkin and Nur, 1993). Such seismic pumping (Sibson et al., 1975) also creates hydraulic fractures and renewed dilatancy along the existing fault zone (Ramsay and Huber, 1987) and enabling failure at lower threshold levels of stress changes. These dilated spaces are filled again

with the fluid (primarily water) during the next rainy season and hence the seismic cycle goes on. The proposition of such earthquake cycle modelled above is examined taking a short span of earthquake data from April 2007 to March 2008. The occurrence of earthquakes as a function of cumulative time with phases of stabilisation, percolation of water and time-dependent pore-pressure growth and delayed failure (Fig. 2) goes well with the proposed model.

Conclusion
Some significant correlation between earthquake genesis and surficial processes that operated within a depth of 15 km within the crust has been proposed. The earthquake occurrence data against months indicates a characteristic major peak in March. Furthermore, similar peak occurrence of earthquake numbers is also noticed in reservoir-induced seismicity in Koyna-Warna area in the Deccan plateau that has been explained by cyclical changes in pore pressure in shallow to mid-crustal level. It is also summarised that the pore-pressure diffusion mechanism,

Fig. 2. Time-dependent pore pressure building up to generate cyclical seismicity in Indian subcontinent. Different stages of build-up and final failure extracted from earthquake data for the period of April 2007 to March 2008 are presented.

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responsible for generating seasonal reservoir-induced seismicity in Koyna-Warna area may also be applicable in explaining the occurrence pattern of regional seismicity in a much broader areal extent (throughout Indian subcontinent) within the shallow- to mid-crustal level (15 km). The peak seasonal occurrence pattern for regional seismicity during March has been explained with the help of dilatancy diffusion model. It is established through both mathematics and observation that pore-pressure front takes almost 9 months from the beginning of rainy season (June) to generate a timedependent delayed loading on seismogenic surfaces. This delayed loading generates more earthquakes in March next year. For a more precise understanding of the proposed seismic cycle, we recommend a focussed seasonal measurement of pore-pressure along the seismogenic fault zones in the Indian subcontinent.

Acknowledgement
The authors express their gratitude to Dr. Prabhas Pande, Deputy Director General, OP: IT, GSI for giving intuitive comments to an earlier version of the manuscript. The comments have helped immensely to improve the analysis and quality of presentation.

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Received 16.04.2009 Revised manuscript accepted 19.11.2009.

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