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EARTHQUAKE RISKS IN SCHOOLS OF KATHMANDU

-Prabesh Ghimire Earthquakes have occurred on earth's surface since times immemorial. Thousands and thousands of earthquakes happen every year; however, most of them go unnoticed as they are either too weak on the Richter scale or happen in remotest of the areas. Earthquakes almost always result in loss of life and property; the magnitude of the problem depending upon the extent of quake. Earthquakes often pose serious risks to public health as issue of deaths, injuries and illnesses are often inevitable, followed by needs of safe drinking water, sanitation, health care and adequate nutrition. The damage of infrastructures, including hospitals and additional disruption of transportation & communication services could further escalate the risks to public health in the aftermath of earthquake. Moreover, this could disrupt the access to health care services, earthquake relief operations and access to basic minimum health needs. The circumstances could be more pronounced and devastating in the school environment. Nepal is considered as one of the most disaster-prone countries in the South-East Asian region. According to a study by Geo Hazards International, Kathmandu, Nepal ranked first on the list of the most earthquake-vulnerable cities in the world. A recent study of UNDP/BCPR in 2004 has ranked Nepal, in terms of relative vulnerability to earthquakes, as the eleventh most at risk country in the world. Another report by World Bank in 2005 classifies Nepal as one of the global hot-spots for natural disasters. According to GSHAP data, Nepal lies in a region with high to very high seismic hazard. Approximately every 75 years, Kathmandu is impacted by an earthquake of magnitude 8.0. A strong scale earthquake is due to strike Nepal anytime. Kathmandu hasn't witnessed a major earthquake in the last 78 years. Although the quakes of 1988 (M 6.6 Richter) and another one that occurred a day ago (M 6.8 Richter) threatened and claimed several human lives and properties, that wasnt as threatening as the prospect of 1934 earthquake (M 8.4 Richter). The larger the time gap (between quakes) the larger the quake is expected to be. Nepal is a small and land locked country in South- East Asia, positioned between the two large and densely populated countries of Asia i.e. India and China. It covers an area of 147, 181 sq.

km, situating between longitudes 804'E to 8812'E and latitudes 2622'N to 3027'N, along the southern slopes of the Himalayas. The lowest altitude starts from 60 meters above the sea level in the Southern plain to 8, 848 meters in the Northern part. Various factors like rugged and fragile geophysical structure, high angle of slopes, complex geology, variable climatic circumstances, energetic tectonic processes, unplanned settlements, dense and escalating population, deprived economic conditions and low literacy rates have made Nepal vulnerable to natural disasters. Most part of the country is seismically active. The seismic record of the country seems to suggest that earthquakes of the 1934 magnitude occur approximately every 75 years. Even though this is only a statistical estimate, no one questions that major earthquakes are an inescapable part of Nepals future. Many experts consider a major earthquake is bound to occur in the near future, considering the recent seismic activity in the region. Among all disaster scenarios in Nepal, none is as alarming as the prospect of a major earthquake affecting the Kathmandu Valley. Kathmandu is among 21 cities around the world in seismic zones and the risk for the city is increasing every year. It is very likely that Kathmandu valley will be crucially affected in case of any imminent disaster such as earthquake. It appears that a medium size earthquake would result into a major disaster taking thousands of life and loss of assets. Various studies illustrate that a major earthquake similar to the one in 1934 would destroy 60 to 70% of all buildings and infrastructure within the valley, leading to tens of thousands of fatalities and hundreds of thousands of injured (NSET, I998). Therefore, there is an urgent need of preparedness for the disaster to reduce vulnerability and losses arising from a possible earthquake.

Large proportion of school children are especially vulnerable to earthquake hazards in the Kathmandu Valley and are at risk of losing their lives in an earthquake. Some of the studies, few years ago, reveal that only less than 10 percent of schools in Kathmandu are earthquake resistant. According to the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), a local NGO involved in earthquake awareness and preparedness, most of the nearly 2,000 schools in Kathmandu are vulnerable to earthquakes. The high vulnerability of schools was witnessed during the 1988 earthquake (M 6.6 Richter) in Udayapur in Eastern Nepal when 6,000 schools were destroyed in the event, which

providentially occurred during non-school hours. Such enormous damage disrupted school attendance for some 300,000 children for several months.

Studies reveal that an earthquake of intensity IX on MM scale had been experienced in the valley once every 50 to 100 years over the past 900 years, the most recent being in 1934. Such tremor during school hours may perhaps kill more than 29,000 students and teachers (12 per cent of total public school occupants) and injure 43,000 more (18 per cent of total public school occupants). The direct loss in terms of damaged buildings would be more than seven million US dollars (based on costs in the year 2000). Including the impact on students, teachers and buildings of private schools, the devastation would be extraordinary. Regarding the earthquake impacts on schools in Kathmandu valley, two scenarios are to be considered i.e. no intervention and intervention. If the no intervention scenario, the expected loss is more than 29,000 school children dead or injured, and more than 77% building loss, damages of which have been estimated to be USD 7 million. In the intervening scenario, 24,000 lives can be saved and the buildings protected (A.M. Dixit, NSET, 2007).

Earthquake preparedness is poor in Kathmandu and the lives of thousands of residents are at risk. The Nepalese government's capacity and investment in disaster management remains low, constrained by bureaucracy and political stasis. A number of reports disclose that inadequate preparedness possibly will result in the deaths of nearly 40,000 people in the capital, leave over 900,000 homeless and destroy 60 percent of the infrastructure. An NSET survey of almost 400 government schools in Kathmandu Valley 12 years ago illustrated that a 1934 type earthquake would kill nearly 30,000 students and teachers outright and injures another 43,000. The situation is likely to be more phenomenal at the present. Further, an earthquake vulnerability assessment carried out by the NSET showed that more than 643 school buildings or 66% of public schools in three administrative districts of Kathmandu Valley i.e. Bhaktapur, Kathmandu and Lalitpur, could collapse given an MM IX earthquake in the City. Despite the recognized importance of earthquake awareness, the programs in school to educate about earthquake are not proper and sufficient. Earthquake Risk Reduction is not included in the formal education curricula at any level from the class one to the university level (accepting a few

initiatives). The existing lessons of natural disasters in the textbooks of science, environment and other subjects do educate about the physics of the hazards, but they do not teach how to reduce disasters and how to make one safe from hazards. That is to say, current school disaster education based on lectures can raise risk perception, but cannot enable students to know the importance of pre-disaster measures and to take actual action for disaster reduction. This has limited the earthquake awareness among school children and pronounced the risks of vulnerability during earthquakes. Regardless of the knowledge of historical seismicity, and continued geological research, public awareness of earthquake hazard and risk is still minimal, and implementations of earthquake risk management efforts are almost non-existent. Lack of appropriate awareness on disaster preparedness can put children on high intensity of risks during earthquake. In a country which is very prone to earthquake like Nepal, to achieve a safer and healthy community, the involvement of school through disaster education and school safety programs are inevitable and urgent. Hence, safer schools are necessary to prevent lives of children during any impending disasters like
earthquake. The concept of school safety, however, is not limited to preventing the collapse of

school buildings, but rather extending awareness on disaster preparedness for safety of students and teachers. Knowledge of appropriate behaviour during an earthquake is crucial for prevention of injury and loss of life and protection of public health. School disaster management is necessary to play an important part in child protection, as well as an important role in overall community disaster risk reduction and contribute significantly in the protection of public health.

Prabesh Ghimire Bachelor Public Health, 3rd Year Valley College of Technical Sciences, Kathmandu prabesh45@gmail.com

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