D n nhm

Mn: Kinh T Lng

ti:

Ging vin hng dn: L Hng Nht

TP. HCM thng 5-2009

Danh sch thnh vin nhm:

Trn Hu Ho : K074020300 (NHM TRNG)

Phm Ngc : K074020390
ng Cng: K074020159
Trn Thy Trc: K074020380
Trng Trn Tun Anh: K074020154

1. T VN : Xu hng mua hng qua mng ca ngi dn thnh ph

H Ch Minh.
Vo thi im cch y 10 nm, khng my ngi dn Si Thnh c th tng
tng rng mnh c th mua c mi th ngay c khi ngi ti nh, chng phi i
u. Th nhng, vi tc pht trin chng mt ca internet v cng ngh s ha
trong vi nm ngn ngi gn y, Thng mi in t - tc vic mua bn hng ha
da trn internet bin gic m trn tr thnh hin thc.
Trong nn kinh t s, thng tin c truyn qua mng vi tc cao. iu ny
to ra nhng kh nng lm thay i thi quen tiu dng v mua bn ca con ngi
m trong , ngi mua v bn c th giao dch vi i tc bt k u trn th
gii m khng cn thng qua trung gian. Vic gip khch hng d dng hn
trong vic chn la khi mua hng v gim chi ph. Hn na, Thng mi in t
cng kch thch s tip cn vi nn kinh t tri thc ca ngi dn. y l mt li
ch mang tnh chin lc cng ngh c th gip nc ta to c bc nhy vt
trong tin trnh CNH-HH trong thi gian ngn hn. Mt khc, s pht trin ca h
thng mng my tnh, mi cng vic c th c x l v gii quyt ti nh thng
qua internet.
Tuy nhin mt tr ngi ln nht ca Thng mi in t l vn bo v ngi
tiu dng trc thng tin bt i xng khi ngi mua khng th thy tn mt, bt
tn tay hng ha trc khi mua, cng nh vic thanh ton in t cha ph bin ti
Vit Nam. Hai vn trn chnh l tr ngi ln nht i vi s nhn rng v pht
trin ca thng mi in t, thm ch mt thnh ph ln nht nh nc nh thnh
ph H Ch Minh. Mc d vy, s lng ngi s dng e-commerce vn ngy cng
tng khng nhng trong gii tr m cn trong mt b phn ngi dn khc.
Nh vy, li ch ca thng mi in t r, hin tng ngi dng tng ln l
thc t. Nhng iu g gii thch cho hnh vi mua hng qua mng ca nhng tn
e-commerce trong ngi dn thnh ph H Ch Minh? l cu hi m nhm
chng em lun trn tr. V l l do thc y nhm thc hin ti Nhng yu
t nh hng n xu hng mua hng qua mng ca ngi dn thnh ph H Ch

Minh. Trong ti ny, nhm chng em s dng ngay nhng kin thc Kinh T
Lng ang hc v tm hiu thm v Thng Mi in T thc hin. Hi vng,
ti ny s l kinh nghim qu gi cho nhm em v ti liu tham kho hu ch cho
nhng ai mun thc hin Thng Mi in T sau ny. Rt mong nhn c s
ng gp kin ca thy c v cc bn ti c hon thin hn.
2. C S L LUN:

C s l lun m nhm s dng l:

1) L thuyt hnh vi ngi tiu dng ca Philip Kotler v Gary Amstrong;
2) M hnh hnh vi tiu dng ca Schiffman v Kanuk;
3) L thuyt tiu dng v hnh vi th trng ca Assael.
Th nht, m thc hnh vi ngi tiu dng ca Philip Kotler. Hai ng phc
ha nhng c tnh quan trng nh hng n hnh vi ngi tiu dng. Cc c tnh
ny c chia thnh hai nhm. Nhm u tin l nhng yu t ni ti ca ngi tiu
dng. Nhm yu t ny li c phn ra thnh iu kin c nhn nh tui tc, ngh
nghip v yu t tm l nh c tnh, nim tin Nhm th hai bao gm iu kin x
hi nh bn b, c s h tng x hi.
Th hai, m hnh hnh vi ngi tiu dng ca Schiffman v Kanuk

Kch t marketing
u
t

Thng hiu
Gi c
Chiu th
Phn Phi

Kch t ph marketing
Kinh t
Chnh tr
Vn ha
X hi

Qu trnh ra quyt nh
Nhn dng nhu cu
Qu
trnh

Tm kim thng tin

nh gi thay th

Tm l
ng c
Kin thc
Nhn thc
Nhn cch
Thi

Kinh nghim
Hnh vi hu quyt nh

u
ra

Mua hng
Th
Lp li
nh gi
sau khi mua

Trong quy trnh ra quyt nh, thng gm ba bin: nhn dng nhu cu, tm
kim thng tin, nh gi thay th. Tuy nhin, ng vi tng loi sn phm khc
nhau, qu trnh mua hng ca mi c nhn c th khng ng nh trnh t cc bc
trong s . Sau khi mua hng online, ngi tiu dng s c kinh nghim, n tc
ng trc tip n yu t tm l, m c th l nim tin ca h. iu ny tt yu s
tc ng n hnh vi mua hng lp li.
Th ba, theo l thuyt tiu dng v hnh vi th trng ca Assael (consumer
behavior and marketing action) quy trnh ra quyt nh mua hng cn ph thuc

vo c tnh ca thng hiu. Assael phn ra bn dng hnh vi tiu dng da theo
mc cn nhc ca ngi tiu dng v nhn thc ca khch hng v mc khc
bit ca thng hiu, gm c: quyt nh phc tp, so snh thp, tm kim a dng,
qun tnh. Da vo l thuyt ny ta c th nhn xt: hnh vi tm kim nh hng
n vic mua hng l khc nhau nhng hng ha khc nhau.
3. CHN BIN V LP M HNH:
3.1 CHN BIN:
Hnh vi mua hng chu tc ng bi nhiu yu t, trnh vic b st bin c
ngha c th gy thin lch trong c lng, nhm tin hnh chn nhng bin theo
l thuyt c nh hng n hnh vi mua. Nhm thc hin ti kinh t lng ny
theo phng php T tng qut n n ginHendry/Lse. Do m hnh u
tin ca nhm tng i c nhiu bin, sau nhm thc hin n gin ha da
trn d liu bng kim nh Wald v kim nh t. Sau y l cc bin c chn
cho m hnh u tin ca nhm:
YU T NI TI:
AGE ( tui ): tui cng cao ngi ta cng t tip cn cng ngh hn nn t
mua hng qua mng hn. K vng m (-)
INC (Thu nhp): Thu nhp cng cao ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng nhiu
hn. K vng ( + )
SEARCH (Tm kim thng tin qua mng): Tm kim thng tin v hng ha trn
mng cng nhiu th ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng qua mng hn. K
vng (+)
JOB (Ngh nghip) y l bin Dummy. JOB=1 l nhng ngi ang c vic
lm, JOB=0 l sinh vin. Hnh vi mua hng c th khc nhau gia ngi c
vic lm v sinh vin. V do tro lu, sinh vin c th mua hng qua mng nhiu
hn. K vng m ( - )
JOB_INC Bin JOB c th nh hng n thu nhp. V hiu ng thu nhp tc
ng ln hnh vi mua hng c th khc nhau sinh vin v ngi i lm.

iu hin nhin l sinh vin s chi tiu ht s tin thu nhp trong khi nhng
ngi i lm s tit kim cho con ci, mua nh ca, tui gi. V vy k vng
giu ( - )
TRUST (Nim tin): c o theo thang o tng dn t 1 n 10, cng tin tng
v cht lng hng ha c bn qua mng th ngi ta mua cng nhiu. K
vng ( + ).
Nhn xt: ng l ra bin TRUST phi l cc bin Dummy v nu s dng
bin TRUST nh mt bin nh lng l mt rng buc qu nghim ngt c kh
nng gy sai m hnh.

IU KIN X HI:
FRIEND: (bn b) Dummy. Bn b c thng hay gii thiu v nhng hng
ha c bn trn mng hay khng. FRIEND = 1 l c, FRIEND = 0 l khng.
K vng ( + )
DIST (Khong cch): Khi m khong cch n ni mua hng ha trc tip cng
di th ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng qua mng hn. K vng ( + )
PAY (Hnh thc thanh ton): hnh thc thanh ton tr tin trc hay tr tin sau
c th nh hng khc nhau i vi vic mua hng qua mng. PAY = 1 l tr
tin trc, PAY = 0 l tr tin sau. K vng m ( - )
DISC: Dummy. Chi ph mua hng qua mng l r hn hay l t hn so vi khi
mua trc tip. DISC =1 l r hn. DISC = 0 l t hn. K vng m ( + )
TRANS (thi gian giao hng) thi gian giao hng cng nhanh th ngi ta cng
c xu hng mua hng qua mng nhiu hn. K vng m ( - ).
Ngoi ra cc loi hng ha khc nhau cng c th nh hng n hnh vi
mua hng khc nhau.
BIN C GII THCH: TIMES ( s ln mua hng qua mng trong

nm gn y nht)

3.2 IU TRA:
Nhm tin hnh iu tra 104 ngi gm c sinh vin v nhng ngi ang i
lm.
i vi sinh vin: K tc x, Khoa Kinh T, H Quc T, H KHXHVNV
i vi ngi ang i lm: COOPMART Th c, BIG C Hong Vn Th,
Nh n i hc quc gia, Khu cng ngh phn mm...

3.3 LP M HNH:
Sau khi iu tra xong s liu, nhm tin hnh a thm 2 bin Dummy:
BOOK: BOOK = 1, nu mt hng ngi thng mua l sch. BOOK = 0 nu
l mt hng khc
CLOTH: CLOTH = 1, nu mt hng ngi thng mua l qun o, dy dp,
ti xch. CLOTH = 0 nu l mt hng khc.
M HNH D KIN:
Times = b1 + b2Age + b3INC + b4Job*Inc + b5Search + b6Job + b7Friend + b8Dist
+ b9Disc + b10Pay + b11Trans + b12Cloth + b13Book + b14Trust
4. KIM NH V XUT CC M HNH SO SNH:
Sau y l kt qu Eview ca m hnh xut ban u:
Dependent Variable: TIMES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 02:35
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

AGE
BOOK
CLOTH
DISC
DIST
FRIEND

-0.240131
-0.486097
1.471030
0.547865
0.000548
0.479025

0.118859
0.857505
0.726098
0.782940
0.000535
0.671476

-2.020310
-0.566873
2.025939
0.699753
1.023877
0.713391

0.0463
0.5722
0.0457
0.4859
0.3086
0.4774

INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
TRANS
JOB_INC
JOB
C

1.188764
0.588726
0.393145
0.764155
-0.024334
-0.790295
1.346170
-2.041251

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.557826
0.493956
2.832283
721.9646
-248.3240
1.663994

0.538436
0.681892
0.077520
0.225875
0.077510
0.555658
1.436344
2.929813

2.207807
0.863370
5.071554
3.383080
-0.313939
-1.422268
0.937220
-0.696717

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.0298
0.3902
0.0000
0.0011
0.7543
0.1584
0.3512
0.4878
3.798077
3.981461
5.044693
5.400669
8.733813
0.000000

Vic cng lc loi b mt vi bin c th b mt nhng bin c ngha quan

trng v mt l thuyt. Do cch lm thn trng v nhy bn hn l loi b dn
tng bin.
Bin Trans c du m ng nh k vng, nh p_value ca bin trans l cao
nht chng t n khng c ngha. iu ny c l c gii thch v hiu ng ca
bin trans c th c th hin qua bin loi hng (book, cloth), v thng thng
nhng loi hng khc nhau s c thi gian giao hng khc nhau. Sau y l kt qu
Eviews sau khi loi b bin Trans

Dependent Variable: TIMES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 02:37
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

AGE
BOOK
CLOTH
DISC
DIST
FRIEND
INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
JOB_INC
JOB

-0.244486
-0.495523
1.464077
0.556954
0.000478
0.473480
1.155621
0.592774
0.395121
0.778122
-0.752803
1.300255

0.117460
0.852724
0.722156
0.778520
0.000484
0.667911
0.525364
0.678385
0.076880
0.220351
0.539978
1.421783

-2.081434
-0.581106
2.027369
0.715401
0.987495
0.708897
2.199659
0.873801
5.139454
3.531282
-1.394135
0.914524

0.0402
0.5626
0.0456
0.4762
0.3260
0.4802
0.0304
0.3845
0.0000
0.0007
0.1667
0.3629

-2.107901

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.557341
0.498969
2.818220
722.7552
-248.3810
1.655278

2.907602

-0.724962

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.4703
3.798077
3.981461
5.026557
5.357106
9.548000
0.000000

Tip tc b dn nhng bin c pvalue cao theo th t l book, disc, Dist, Friend. Ta
c m hnh
Dependent Variable: TIMES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 03:07
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

AGE
CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
C

-0.189565
1.603882
1.176916
1.490703
-0.827479
0.753674
0.392725
0.835927
-3.074116

0.103508
0.623493
0.513628
1.380941
0.521611
0.643235
0.075579
0.211206
2.661819

-1.831400
2.572416
2.291380
1.079483
-1.586389
1.171693
5.196197
3.957867
-1.154893

0.0702
0.0116
0.0242
0.2831
0.1160
0.2443
0.0000
0.0001
0.2510

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.545469
0.507192
2.794997
742.1407
-249.7573
1.665423

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

3.798077
3.981461
4.976102
5.204943
14.25080
0.000000

cn thn hn, mt kim nh F-test c thc hin kim tra xem cc

bin b loi b gm Trans, Disc, Friend, Dist,Book c ngha lin kt hay khng.
F-Test:
H0: Trans = Disc = Friend = Dist = Book=0
H1: Khng phi Ho

(U):Times=-2.041251-0.240131Age-0.486097Book+1.471030Cloth+
0.547865Disc

+0.000548Dist+0.479025Friend+1.188764Inc+0.588726Pay

0.393145Search+ 0.764155Trust-0.024334Trans-0.790295Job_Inc+1.346170Job
(R):Times=-2.041251-0.240131Age+1.471030Cloth+1.188764Inc+0.588726Pay
+0.393145Search+0.764155Trust-0.790295Job_Inc+1.346170Job

Fc = 0.5032 < F0.05 (5,90) = 2.315689 => DNRH0

Vic b i nhng bin ny l hp l. Tuy nhin R2 hiu chnh vn cn thp.
iu chng t c th b qun i nhng bin c ngha. Theo l thuyt tiu
dng v hnh vi ca th trng ca Assael (consumer behavior and marketing
action) quy trnh ra quyt nh mua hng cn ph thuc vo c tnh ca thng
hiu. Assael phn ra bn dng hnh vi tiu dng da theo mc cn nhc ca
ngi tiu dng v nhn thc ca khch hng v mc khc bit ca thng
hiu, gm c: quyt nh phc tp, so snh thp, tim kim a dng, qun tnh.Vic
tm kim thng tin trn mng v sn phm (SEARCH) th hin Mc cn nhc
v nhn thc ca khch hng v sn phm. Da vo l thuyt ny ta c th nhn
xt: hnh vi tm kim thng tin sn phm nh hng n vic mua hng l khc
nhau nhng hng ha khc nhau v nh hng ca vic tim kim thng tin ln
hnh vi mua hng c th l khng tuyn tnh. V vy nhm tin hnh a vo 5
bin, gm 4 bin interaction Book*sea, book*sea2, cloth*sea, cloth*sea2, v bin
sea2. Sau y l kt qu c lng

Dependent Variable: TIMES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 03:56
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CLOTH

2.122868 0.759344

2.795663

0.0063

INC

1.300347 0.382204

3.402236

0.0010

JOB

1.910650 1.036524

1.843323

0.0685

JOB_INC

-0.898703 0.392755

-2.288201

0.0244

PAY

0.877585 0.490170

1.790367

0.0767

TRUST

0.797775 0.160511

4.970205

0.0000

SEA2

0.014262 0.005369

2.656552

0.0093

AGE

-0.197644 0.078799

-2.508208

0.0139

BOOK_SEA

0.105570 0.220636

0.478481

0.6335

BOOK_SEA2

-0.018906 0.013962

-1.354049

0.1791

CLOTH_SEA

-0.599437 0.209790

-2.857318

0.0053

CLOTH_SEA2

0.071260 0.013442

5.301326

0.0000

-1.789762 2.056926

-0.870115

0.3865

R-squared

0.759029

Mean dependent var

3.798077

Adjusted R-squared 0.727252

S.D. dependent var

3.981461

S.E. of regression

2.079328

Akaike info criterion

4.418436

Sum squared resid

393.4482

Schwarz criterion

4.748984

Log likelihood

-216.7586

F-statistic

23.88653

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Durbin-Watson stat 1.745378

gii thch ca m hnh c ci thin mt cch ng k. Tuy nhin 2 bin

Book*sea v Book*sea2 khng c ngha mc b hn 10 %. Ta tin hnh loi b
2 bin ny. Bng kt qu Eviews:

Dependent Variable: TIMES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 04:00
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
SEA2
AGE
CLOTH_SEA
CLOTH_SEA2
C

2.034212
1.266139
1.878079
-0.802258
1.036724
0.746802
0.006587
-0.223332
-0.606700
0.079620
-0.808936

2.718694
3.286364
1.812295
-2.045621
2.129577
4.671069
1.791323
-2.855042
-2.865181
6.192982
-0.401785

0.0078
0.0014
0.0732
0.0436
0.0358
0.0000
0.0765
0.0053
0.0052
0.0000
0.6888

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.748991
0.722000
2.099252
409.8378
-218.8809
1.760622

0.748231
0.385270
1.036299
0.392183
0.486821
0.159878
0.003677
0.078224
0.211749
0.012857
2.013357

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

3.798077
3.981461
4.420786
4.700481
27.75042
0.000000

Hng s khng c ngha. iu ny hon ton c th chp nhn c. Tuy

nhin vic h s cloth*sea2 l dng v cloth*sea l m c v khng ng vi thc
t cho lm. Khng th no c chuyn i vi qun o (CLOTH), lc u cng tm
kim ngi ta cng mua t i, sau th ngc li, cng tm kim li cng mua
nhiu hn. Vi vic h s ca sea2 dng v cloth*sea2 th hin rng cng tm kim
thng tin v sn phm trn mng ngi ta mua hng cng nhiu. Ngoi ra dng hm
s ca Sea2 v Cloth*sea2 gi cho nhm c kh nng tc ng ca vic tm kim
i vi mua hng ha ging nh tc ng ca x i vi lny trong dng hm lny =
b1 + b2 x. Do nhm sa bin sea2 thnh Esea (e m search) v cm bin
(cloth*sea + cloth*sea2) thnh cloth*Esea (Esea l e m Search). Sau y l kt qu
hi quy trn Eviews:

Dependent Variable: TIMES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 04:11
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
E_SEA
AGE
ECLOTH
C

1.229559
1.367404
1.965042
-0.866406
1.400432
0.795095
5.91E-10
-0.242134
4.94E-08
-0.761044

2.670019
3.674133
1.966560
-2.281873
3.001483
5.173354
0.395655
-3.243516
10.95731
-0.394893

0.0089
0.0004
0.0522
0.0248
0.0034
0.0000
0.6933
0.0016
0.0000
0.6938

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.761833
0.739030
2.033938
388.8690
-216.1499
1.895642

0.460506
0.372171
0.999228
0.379690
0.466580
0.153690
1.49E-09
0.074652
4.51E-09
1.927214

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

3.798077
3.981461
4.349036
4.603305
33.40906
0.000000

Bin Esearch khng c ngha b loi ra khi m hnh. Kt qu hi quy trn

Eviews:

Dependent Variable: TIMES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 04:12
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
AGE
ECLOTH
C

1.198511
1.380596
1.977616
-0.876510
1.402768
0.801419
-0.244596
4.99E-08
-0.751221

2.653031
3.741198
1.988995
-2.324064
3.020169
5.266363
-3.302643
11.72373
-0.391571

0.0094
0.0003
0.0496
0.0223
0.0032
0.0000
0.0014
0.0000
0.6963

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.761437
0.741347
2.024889
389.5166
-216.2364
1.894630

0.451751
0.369025
0.994279
0.377145
0.464467
0.152177
0.074061
4.26E-09
1.918480

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

3.798077
3.981461
4.331470
4.560311
37.90214
0.000000

M hnh la chn:
Times=

-0.751221

1.198511Cloth

1.380596Inc

1.977616Job

-0.87651Job_Inc+1.402768Pay+0.801419Trust-0.244596Age+(4.99*10^-8)Ecloth
NHN XT:
1. Nhm bin Cloth v Ecloth: hai bin ny c hin tng a cng tuyn, tuy

nhin vic gii thch tc ng ca nhm bin ny n Times (s ln mua

hng qua mng) khng phi l qu kh khn. H s ca bin Cloth v Ecloth
dng chng t nhng ngi thng hay mua qun o, dy dp, ti xch qua
mng c s ln mua hng nhiu hn nhng ngi thng mua nhng hng
ha khc ( sch, hng in t, lu nim). V nhng ngi mua Cloth
(qun o, dy dp, ti xch) qua mng nu tm hiu thng tin v Cloth cng
nhiu th s mua cng nhiu.

2. Bin Pay: bin Pay tri du so vi k vng du (+), liu vic ny c phi l

do c trng m hnh sai hay thiu bin quan trng. Vic thiu bin quan
trng b nhm bc b v ban u theo l thuyt, kinh nghim v hiu bit
nhm a rt nhiu cc bin (14 bin s kho c cho l c nh hng
n hnh vi mua hng), sau thn trng hn, nhm cn to cc bin th
cp (nh trnh by trn) da trn mt nn tng l thuyt vng chc. Do
kh chp nhn rng nhm b st bin quan trng. Ngoi ra R2 hiu
chnh ca nhm tng i cao (nghin cu v d liu cho) cng l mt lp
lun ng h nhn nh ny.
c trng m hnh sai c l l yu t cn c cn nhc thn trng. Nh
trnh by trn, bin TRUST (nim tin v cht lng hng ha theo thang o
10 im) l rng buc qu nghim ngt c kh nng gy sai c trng m
hnh trm trng. ng l n phi l nhiu bin Dummy. Tuy nhin, h s
bin TRUST c du nh k vng, Pvalue(Trust) = 0, R2 hiu chnh =
0.741347 chng t c trng m hnh l khng qu sai. Nhm nhn nh
rng nu c s chnh sa li trong vic s dng bin Trust (TRUST s dng
l cc bin Dummy) s lm tng R2 hiu chnh nhng cng s khng thay i
du ca PAY.
Vy iu g l gii cho vic h s ca bin Pay dng?
Nhn vo l thuyt: M hnh hnh vi tiu dng ca Schiffman v Kanuk.
Hai ng cho rng sau khi mua hng ngi ta s c nh gi sau khi mua.
Nhng nh gi ny to thnh kinh nghim ca ngi tiu dng. Kinh
nghim ny l mt yu t tc ng n Tm l (ng c, kin thc, nhn
thc, nhn cch, thi ). V Tm l li tc ng n nhn dng nhu cu,
tm kim thng tin v nh gi thay th.
L thuyt ny gii thch iu g cho h s ca bin Pay dng.
Gi nh A: Khi mua hng thanh ton tr tin trc, nhng ngi c giao
dch thnh cng nh gi tt v hnh thc ny (khng c la o, m bo
t cc trc mn hng mnh yu thch ko ngi khc mua mt (li gii
thch ca c Hoa), thun tin cho vic mua hng trn nhng trang web ni

ting nh 123.mua, vatgia.comy l nhng trang web yu cu phi tr

tin trc qua mt ti khon c qun l bi trang web v ngn hng).
Vic nh gi cng vi kinh nghim mua hng thnh cng tc ng n tm
l (nhn thc, thi ) ca h v hnh thc tr tin trc nhng trang web
nh 123.com Cui cng iu ny lm cho mua hng nhng trang web
nh 123.com l mt thay th tt so vi nhng hnh thc mua hng khc.
Nhng ngi bn hng qua mng (seller) a thch hnh thc thanh ton tr
tin trc hn. Do hng ha trn mng hu ht l tr tin trc. Ngoi ra
hng ha tr tin trc thng r hn hng ha tr tin sau. iu ny lm
cho nhng ngi mua (buyer) tin tng hnh thc tr tin trc(PAY=1) c
nhiu hng ha r hn v nhiu s la chn hn so vi nhng ngi mua
khng tin tng hnh thc tr tin trc. Do vic s ln mua hng trn
mng ca ngi mua tr tin trc nhiu hn ngi mua tr tin sau l iu
d hiu.
Gi nh B: Giao dch tr tin trc tht bi. Ngi mua hng qua mng ny
khng cn tin tng vo hnh thc tr tin trc na v tr thnh ngi mua
hng tr tin sau (PAY=0) hoc khng mua hng qua mng na (nhm ngi
ny khng nm trong phm vi nghin cu ca nhm). V d nhin vi thc t
hng ha tr tin sau t a dng hn v mc hn lm cho anh ta mua hng
t hn nhng ngi tr tin trc.
Bin Pay c h s dng phi c chp nhn.
3. Bin TRUST: nh ni vic bin TRUST c s dng nh mt bin nh

lng l mt rng buc qu nghim ngt gy sai c trng m hnh. Tuy

nhin kt qu cui cng cho thy TRUST c ngha v R2 hiu chnh cao
cho thy m hnh l khng qu sai. Vic s dng bin TRUST l cc bin
Dummy l mt hnh ng ng n v c kh nng tng R2 hiu chnh ln.
Tuy nhin do s st ca nhm l bin TRUST c thang im 10 v vy nu
sa bin TRUST thnh cc bin Dummy s lm m hnh qu cng knh. Do
nhm u tin mt m hnh n gin gn nh hn ( thc ra ti v m hnh
cui cng ca nhm c n 9 bin k c hng s)

5. Kin Ngh
Theo thng k ca Trung tm Internet Vit Nam (VNNIC), tnh n ht thng
3/2009, c nc c 21,1 triu ngi s dng Internet, chim gn 25% dn s ca
c nc, d bo s c kh nng tng ln 36% vo nm 2012. Do vy, c th ni
thng mi in t l mt knh kinh doanh y tim nng i vi cc doanh nghip
Vit Nam. Qua cuc kho st, nhm nhn thy rng hnh thc tr tin trc nh
hng rt ln n quyt nh mua sn phm ca khch hng. Do , vic nng cao
mc tin tng ca khch hng l mt iu ht sc cn thit, cc doanh nghip
cn c nhng trang web vi mc tin tng cao nh amazon.com,
ebay.com..Tc l cn quan tm nhiu hn n khch hng, trc tip v nhanh
chng gii p nhng thc mc cng nh bi thng thit hi cho khch hng khi
c s c xy ra. Qua , cn a dng ho thng tin tm kim cng nh a dng ho
danh mc sn phm nhm gim thiu chnh lch thng tin. Bi vi nhiu s la
chn trn mt trang web th mc tin tng ca khch hng s cao hn.
Hn na, mt gii php khc chnh l cc doanh nghip ny cn lin kt vi
nhiu ngn hng uy tn trong vic to ti khon cho khch hng, gi s trong trng
hp ngi mua t hng v thanh ton qua ngn hng nhng ngi bn khng
giao hng, th ngn hng phi ng ra phn x, chng minh ti chnh gip ngi
mua, nhm lm cho khch hng yn tm hn khi s dng dch v.
CM N THY, C XEM BI TRNH BY CA NHM!