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Autonomy Trading and Financial Statistics

Autonomy Historical Trading Performance


January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011
Price
25.00

Autonomy Trading Overview


Price
Spot
Average

$40.02

Current
Last 10 Days
Last 30 Days
Last 60 Days
Last 120 Days
LTM
LTM High
LTM Low

20.00
$32.01

14.78
15.50
13.45
14.80
16.66
15.29
19.75
12.71

/ $23.66
/ 24.81
/ 21.53
/ 23.69
/ 26.67
/ 24.47
/ 31.61
/ 20.34

14.92
14.98
14.45
15.42
16.48

/ $23.88
/ 23.97
/ 23.12
/ 24.69
/ 26.38
-

Volume (000s)
20,000

Average
Volume (000's)
1,224
977
1,221
1,336
1,215
-

15,000

Note: Based on trading days.

15.00
$24.01
10,000

10.00
$16.01

5,000
5.00
$8.00

0.00
Jan-06

0
Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Autonomy Recent Trading Performance


January 4, 2010 to January 24, 2011
Price
20.00
$32.01

Apr 21, 2010:


Reported Q1 2010 results in line
with analyst consensus.

Jul 22, 2010:


Reported Q2 2010 results at the top end of
guidance and slightly below consensus,
guiding to a 4-7% q/q fall in Q3 revenues.

Stock price reaction: +0%

Stock price reaction: (9%)

Feb 3, 2010:
Reported full year 2009
results in line with analyst
expectations.

Oct 6, 2010:
Announced expectations
that Q3 revenues would be
disappointing.

Volume (000s)
20,000

Stock price reaction: (16%)

Stock price reaction: +1%

18.00
$28.81

15,000

Nov 24, 2010:


Announced ongoing work
on a potential acquisition.

16.00
$25.61

10,000

Stock price reaction: (6%)

Feb 10, 2010:


Announced the offering of 500 ($800MM)
worth of 3.25% convertible bonds due 2015,
convertible at strike price of 20.63 ($33.03).

Oct 19, 2010:


Announced Q3 2010
results and reaffirms FY11
guidance.

Stock price reaction: (6%)

14.00
$22.41

5,000

Stock price reaction: +5%

12.00
Jan-10

0
Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Recent Trading Volume At Various Prices


January 4, 2010 to January 24, 2011
Current Trading Range:
14.78 / $23.66

Volume (MM)
50

47.6

40.5
40

34.0
30.2

30

27.0

26.1

25.1
20.3

20

14.5

17.7
12.9

10.4
10

6.9

6.4
0.0
12.00

12.50

13.00

13.50

14.00

Min Range: 12.00


$19.21

12.50
$20.01

13.00
$20.81

13.50
$21.61

Max Range: 12.50


$20.01

13.00
$20.81

13.50
$21.61

14.50

15.00

15.50

16.00

16.50

17.00

3.3

0.0

17.50

18.00

18.50

19.00

19.50

20.00

14.00
$22.41

Trading Statistics at Various Prices (Based on Closing Prices)


14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
$23.21
$24.01
$24.81
$25.61
$26.41
$27.21
$28.01

18.00
$28.81

18.50
$29.61

19.00
$30.41

19.50
$31.21

20.00
$32.01

14.00
$22.41

14.50
$23.21

15.00
$24.01

15.50
$24.81

16.00
$25.61

16.50
$26.41

17.00
$27.21

17.50
$28.01

18.00
$28.81

18.50
$29.61

19.00
$30.41

19.50
$31.21

20.00
$32.01

20.50
$32.81

Volume (MM)
% of Total
% of Implied Float (1)

0.0
0%
0%

6.4
2%
3%

10.4
3%
5%

14.5
4%
7%

30.2
9%
14%

26.1
8%
12%

40.5
13%
18%

47.6
15%
22%

27.0
8%
12%

20.3
6%
9%

17.7
5%
8%

25.1
8%
11%

34.0
11%
15%

12.9
4%
6%

6.9
2%
3%

3.3
1%
2%

0.0
0%
0%

Cumulative Volume
% Volume At Or Below Range
Volume / Implied Float (1)

0.0
0%
0.0x

6.4
2%
0.0x

16.8
5%
0.1x

31.3
10%
0.1x

61.5
19%
0.3x

87.6
27%
0.4x

128.1
40%
0.6x

175.7
54%
0.8x

202.6
63%
0.9x

222.9
69%
1.0x

240.6
75%
1.1x

265.7
82%
1.2x

299.7
93%
1.4x

312.7
97%
1.4x

319.6
99%
1.5x

322.9
100%
1.5x

322.9
100%
1.5x

Days
% of Total Days

0
0%

2
1%

7
3%

11
4%

18
7%

22
8%

30
11%

35
13%

17
6%

16
6%

17
6%

24
9%

37
14%

18
7%

10
4%

4
1%

0
0%

Cumulative Days
% Days At Or Below Range

0
0%

2
1%

9
3%

20
7%

38
14%

60
22%

90
34%

125
47%

142
53%

158
59%

175
65%

199
74%

236
88%

254
95%

264
99%

268
100%

268
100%

Source: CapitalIQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
(1) Assumes 220MM free float shares based on Capital IQ.

NTM Revenue Multiples Over Time


January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011
Enterprise Value
NTM Rev

2006
Mean
Median
Max
Min
25th Perc
75th Perc

11.0x

10.0x

NTM Revenue Multiples


Selected Multiple During
2007
2008
2009
2010

5.4x
5.4
6.8
3.5
5.0
6.1

8.2x
8.3
9.8
6.7
7.6
8.9

7.1x
7.4
9.0
4.5
6.6
8.0

6.7x
6.6
8.8
5.1
6.3
7.2

6.4x
6.5
7.8
4.9
5.9
7.0

Entire
Period
6.8x
6.8
9.8
3.5
5.9
7.6

9.0x

8.0x
75th Perc = 7.6x

7.0x

Mean = 6.8x
Current = 6.0x
25th Perc = 5.9x

6.0x

5.0x

4.0x

3.0x
Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

NTM P/E Multiples Over Time


January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011
P/E

2006

60.0x

Mean
Median
Max
Min
25th Perc
75th Perc

50.0x

NTM P/E Multiples


Selected Multiple During
2007
2008
2009
2010

35.4x
35.9
53.2
25.4
30.7
39.7

39.5x
39.6
47.0
29.9
37.5
42.5

27.3x
28.4
37.8
15.6
23.1
31.5

19.8x
19.6
23.0
16.6
18.7
21.0

19.7x
19.6
22.7
16.4
18.7
20.8

Entire
Period
28.2x
27.9
53.2
15.6
19.7
36.7

40.0x
75th Perc = 36.7x

30.0x
Mean = 28.2x

25th Perc = 19.7x


Current = 19.2x

20.0x

10.0x

0.0x
Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Shareholder Ownership Over Time


('000s)
Company 1 Top 25 Institutional Holders
Holdings (000s)
Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter Ending
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09

Institution

Current
(000s)

% of
Outst. (2)

Director & Related Holdings (1)


TIAA-CREF
Fidelity Investments
OppenheimerFunds
Schroders Investment Management
Legal & General Investment Management
Credit Agricole Group
BlackRock Merrill Lynch Investment Managers
Standard Life Investments
Lone Pine Capital
BlackRock
BNP Paribas
Ignis Asset Management
Scottish Widows Investment Partnership
GE Asset Management
Vanguard Group
Alliance Bernstein
State Street Global Advisors
Barclays Personal Investment Management
Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
Kuwait Investment Authority
Societe Generale
Credit Suisse
JP Morgan
Universities Superannuation Scheme

22,171
12,371
12,281
12,116
9,736
8,548
7,383
6,556
5,675
4,788
4,259
3,750
2,612
2,561
2,548
1,531
1,303
1,274
1,270
1,246
1,205
1,136
1,041
909
886

9.2%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.3%
2.0%
1.8%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

0
726
1,825
88
0
(153)
4,210
(700)
(1,026)
(700)
2
139
(49)
(601)
500
4
985
(45)
559
(135)
327
495
(218)
767
268

(250)
(438)
(262)
1,890
0
5
1,757
5,366
(108)
(783)
229
848
(186)
841
1,866
43
318
(114)
38
(29)
(101)
(87)
1,259
33
62

Total
101,623
42.0%
129,151
53.3%

4,271
7,268

7,177
12,198

Summary
Top 10 Holders
Top 25 Holders

Source: Capital IQ, UK Share Register as of 11/1/2010.


(1) Includes holdings for Michael Lynch of 19,799 (8.2% of CSO) and Richard Gaunt of 2,373 (1.0% of CSO).
(2) Based on 242MM shares outstanding.

Sep-09

Jun-09

0
189
(705)
208
56
(370)
(22)
19
(1,622)
(4,586)
53
120
0
3
0
133
0
5
110
69
0
456
5,014
175
(512)

0
3,999
(12,502)
933
149
(46)
164
2
281
9,994
74
577
(656)
(117)
0
1
0
75
118
1,285
0
(736)
939
(346)
75

0
7,959
0
47
0
308
329
(111)
0
0
73
150
(8)
(64)
0
636
0
653
14
0
0
(557)
0
310
379

Total Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter


(115)
(244)
(6,833)
2,584
(143)
(1,207)

2,973
4,261

8,531
10,117

(80)
(65)
916
120
(17)
(315)
(100)
553
(780)
(348)
131
(389)
2,848
179
182
664
0
419
(84)
13
198
(69)
(1,958)
10
556

(100)
0
(745)
(150)
(12)
(282)
547
1,002
(1,714)
1,209
3,087
1,213
0
225
0
50
0
(570)
(197)
43
781
(421)
(3,995)
(115)
0

Trading Statistics of Selected Companies


($MM, except per share information)

Company (FYE)
Autonomy (Dec.) (1)

Trading Performance
Prem / (Disc) to
Stock Price
LTM
LTM
1/24/11
High
Low
14.78 / $23.66

(25%)

Selected App. Infrastructure / Data Management Software


Teradata (Dec.)
$45.80
(1%)
Informatica (Dec.)
42.69
(6%)
TIBCO (Nov.)
21.46
0%
Software AG (Dec.)
137.95
(8%)
OpenText (Jun.)
46.86
(6%)
Progress Software (Nov.)
42.79
(3%)
Qlik Technologies (Dec.)
22.87
(18%)
Pegasystems (Dec.)
33.38
(15%)
MicroStrategy (Dec.)
91.00
(7%)
Median
(6%)
Mean
(7%)
Selected Infrastructure Software
VMware (Dec.)
$87.73
(10%)
Adobe (Dec.)
34.03
(7%)
Citrix (Dec.)
64.70
(9%)
BMC Software (Mar.)
48.27
(1%)
Red Hat (Feb.)
42.08
(13%)
Median
(9%)
Mean
(8%)
Selected SaaS
Salesforce.com (Jan.)
$127.83
(15%)
Concur (Sep.)
50.63
(10%)
SuccessFactors (Dec.)
29.00
(12%)
Taleo (Dec.)
29.04
(10%)
Median
(11%)
Mean
(12%)
Selected Tech Leaders
Microsoft (Jun.)
IBM (Dec.)
Google (Dec.)
Oracle (May.)
Cisco (Jul.)
Hewlett-Packard (Oct.)
SAP (Dec.)
EMC (Dec.)
Accenture (Aug.)
Dell (Jan.)
Median
Mean

$28.38
159.63
611.08
32.40
21.17
47.55
55.41
23.83
51.47
13.72

(10%)
0%
(4%)
(0%)
(23%)
(13%)
(1%)
(4%)
0%
(22%)
(4%)
(8%)

FD Capitalization
Equity
Ent.
Value
Value

Trading Multiples
Enterprise Value /
Revenue
EBITDA
P/E
CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E

LT EPS
Growth %

Cash

16%

$5,811

$5,728

6.6x

5.9x

13.4x

11.3x

21.7x

18.6x

1.1x

11%

44%

17%

$1,028

66%
87%
140%
33%
29%
60%
79%
60%
32%
60%
65%

$7,992
4,928
4,206
3,979
2,733
2,066
2,042
1,337
1,044

$7,251
4,502
4,001
4,312
2,648
1,743
1,886
1,268
859

3.8x
7.1
5.3
2.9
2.9
3.3
8.8
3.6
2.0
3.6x
4.4x

3.5x
6.1
4.8
2.7
2.6
3.1
7.0
3.0
1.8
3.1x
3.8x

15.2x
28.1
19.6
10.2
9.1
10.8
58.4
29.1
15.0
15.2x
21.7x

13.2x
22.9
16.8
9.5
8.7
9.6
38.7
18.8
12.5
13.2x
16.7x

25.7x
38.8
29.5
14.8
13.1
18.7
105.8
37.3
29.5
29.5x
34.8x

22.5x
32.8
24.2
13.7
11.4
16.6
58.5
26.7
26.3
24.2x
25.9x

1.8x
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.3
1.1x
1.4x

9%
16%
11%
5%
10%
7%
25%
20%
10%
10%
13%

22%
27%
26%
25%
28%
32%
17%
18%
12%
25%
23%

13%
18%
16%
14%
18%
15%
52%
24%
12%
16%
20%

$741
426
245
148
385
322
156
69
184

109%
33%
57%
39%
56%
56%
59%

$39,024
17,923
12,943
9,068
8,414

$37,845
16,977
11,359
7,940
7,317

13.2x
4.5
6.1
4.0
8.5
6.1x
7.3x

11.1x
4.1
5.5
3.8
7.4
5.5x
6.4x

40.4x
11.8
19.7
9.8
30.4
19.7x
22.4x

33.5x
9.7
17.2
8.3
24.7
17.2x
18.7x

59.1x
17.8
32.1
16.7
55.5
32.1x
36.2x

48.9x
14.8
28.5
15.5
47.1
28.5x
31.0x

2.2x
1.2
2.4
1.1
2.5
2.2x
1.9x

19%
10%
11%
6%
16%
11%
12%

29%
37%
27%
36%
25%
29%
31%

23%
12%
12%
15%
19%
15%
16%

$1,629
2,468
1,591
1,495
1,097

106%
34%
86%
49%
67%
68%

$18,752
2,803
2,514
1,236

$17,495
2,454
2,180
972

10.6x
8.1
10.8
4.1
9.3x
8.4x

8.6x
6.7
8.6
3.3
7.6x
6.8x

58.2x
28.3
255.9
19.8
43.3x
90.6x

45.7x
22.5
159.9
16.1
34.1x
61.0x

108.1x
87.9x
66.5
54.2
483.3
263.6
39.3
31.6
87.3x
71.0x
174.3x 109.3x

3.0x
2.2
9.6
1.3
2.6x
4.0x

23%
21%
26%
24%
23%
23%

15%
24%
3%
14%
14%
14%

29%
25%
28%
24%
26%
26%

$1,281
637
334
264

$250,678 $217,170
205,572 200,847
203,307 189,656
168,601 162,079
121,405
97,902
109,235 120,937
65,961
67,625
56,399
49,210
35,887
32,085
27,032
19,163

3.3x
2.0
8.8
5.1
2.3
0.9
4.0
2.9
1.3
0.3
2.6x
3.1x

3.1x
1.9
7.4
4.4
2.1
0.9
3.6
2.6
1.3
0.3
2.4x
2.8x

7.7x
8.5
14.6
11.5
7.4
6.3
12.3
11.2
9.3
4.1
8.9x
9.3x

7.3x
7.7
12.2
9.2
7.1
5.9
10.6
10.9
8.4
3.9
8.0x
8.3x

0.9x
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.0x
1.0x

7%
5%
18%
14%
9%
5%
11%
12%
1%
5%
8%
9%

40%
20%
49%
44%
27%
12%
31%
22%
14%
6%
24%
26%

12%
12%
18%
13%
12%
12%
16%
16%
12%
8%
12%
13%

$44,173
11,651
13,651
23,995
38,781
10,934
4,730
7,891
4,204
13,863

23%
31%
40%
51%
11%
25%
29%
43%
41%
18%
30%
31%

Source: CapitalIQ; based on consensus estimates. Cash balances pro forma for acquisitions.
(1) USD Stock Price of $23.66. Autonomy figures converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.

Operating Statistics
P/E/G
'10-11E
CY11E
CY11E Rev Growth Op Margin

11.9x
13.9
20.6
17.3
13.1
9.9
18.5
19.0
18.8
9.7
15.6x
15.3x

11.1x
12.2
17.5
15.2
12.2
8.9
15.5
16.4
16.0
9.2
13.7x
13.4x

Illustrative Analysis at Various Prices


($MM, except per share amounts)

Illustrative Share Price:

AU @ Mkt
14.78
$23.66

Illustrative Autonomy Valuation Statistics


25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
$40.02
$41.62
$43.22
$44.82

23.00
$36.81

24.00
$38.42

0%
0%
(25%)
16%
(10%)

56%
59%
16%
81%
40%

62%
67%
22%
89%
46%

69%
74%
27%
97%
52%

76%
82%
32%
105%
58%

83%
90%
37%
112%
64%

$5,811
945
1,028
$5,728

$9,989
145
1,028
$9,107

$10,428
145
1,028
$9,545

$10,867
145
1,028
$9,984

$11,305
145
1,028
$10,422

Statistic (3)
$866
963

6.6x
5.9

10.5x
9.5

11.0x
9.9

11.5x
10.4

EBITDA Multiples
CY10E
CY11E

$426
505

13.4x
11.3

21.4x
18.0

22.4x
18.9

Earnings Multiples
CY10E
CY11E

$1.09
1.27

21.7x
18.6

33.8x
29.0

35.2x
30.2

Implied Premiums
Premium to Current Price
Premium to Enterprise Value
Premium to LTM High Share Price
Premium to LTM Low Share Price
Premium to LTM Average Share Price

Statistic
14.78
3,579
19.75
12.71
16.48

/
/
/
/
/

$23.66
$5,728
$31.61
$20.34
$26.38

Valuation & Multiples


Fully-Diluted Equity Value (1)
Plus: Debt (2)
Less: Cash (2)
Fully-Diluted Enterprise Value
Revenue Multiples
CY10E
CY11E

29.00
$46.42

30.00
$48.02

89%
97%
42%
120%
70%

96%
105%
47%
128%
76%

103%
113%
52%
136%
82%

$11,744
145
1,028
$10,861

$12,182
145
1,028
$11,300

$12,621
145
1,028
$11,738

$13,060
145
1,028
$12,177

12.0x
10.8

12.5x
11.3

13.0x
11.7

13.6x
12.2

14.1x
12.6

23.4x
19.8

24.5x
20.6

25.5x
21.5

26.5x
22.4

27.6x
23.2

28.6x
24.1

36.7x
31.5

38.2x
32.8

39.6x
34.0

41.1x
35.3

42.6x
36.6

44.1x
37.8

Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
(1) Shares outstanding based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010 and options outstanding based on Autonomy Annual Report for the period ended December 31, 2009.
(2) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010. Includes 500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of 20.63 ($33.03).
(3) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010.