Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA.

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http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? Oct 17, 2011 The Weekly Charts are Positive with Dow and S&P 500 above Pivots With positive weekly charts and negative monthly charts my call is a simple one: The October 4th lows will be the lows for 2011, but we will not see new highs for 2011. In terms of the Dow Industrial Average the October 4th low is 10,404.49 with my annual and weekly pivots at 11,491 and 11,650, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507 below the May 2nd YTD high at 12,876.00. At the October 4th low 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. Today 81.0% of all stocks are undervalued. I expect US Treasury yields to rise and a higher yield for the 30-Year bond will be a drag on equity valuations. The yield on the 10-Year has risen from my semiannual risky level at 1.672 on September 23rd to 2.294 this morning. There are several risky levels that will prevent gold from returning to its September 6th all time high at $1923.7. Crude oil should stay range-bound between its October 4th year-to-date low at $74.95 and annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. 10-Year Note (2.244) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.395, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with my monthly pivot at 2.222, and weekly, and semiannual risky levels at 2.033 and 1.672, which was tested on September 23rd. A close this week cheaper than the five-week modified moving average at 2.140 signals higher yields ahead with the 200-week SMA at 3.289.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1682.6) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1625.8, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my semiannual pivot at $1644.8, and daily, quarterly, monthly risky levels at $1712.1, $1738.4 and $1811.4, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($87.36) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly pivot at $87.14, the 200-week at $83.58, and daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $91.79, $98.51, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro (1.3881) Weekly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3202 and 1.2598 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3971, 1.4579, 1.4752 and 1.4872.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Weekly Dow - (11,644) The October 4th YTD low is 10,404.49 with annual and weekly pivots at 11,491 and 11,650, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 11,925, 12,091 and 12,507 with the YTD high at 12,876.00. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 (1224.6) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, my annual pivot at 1210.7, weekly and daily risky levels at 1230.6 and 1257.2, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1259.8, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. NASDAQ (2668) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, monthly, weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 2680, 2717, 2741 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2372) The YTD low is 2034.92 with semiannual and annual value levels at 1951, 1861 and 1723, my monthly pivot at 2312, weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 2427, 2438 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590. Dow Transports (4691) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with semiannual value levels at 4335 and 3868, my weekly pivot at 4687, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 4849, 4980, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high at 5627.85. Russell 2000 (712.46) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, my weekly pivot at 713.00, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 726.03, 778.77, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high at 868.57. The SOX (380.86) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with annual and semiannual value levels at 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67, my monthly pivot at 363.01, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 393.70, 392.52 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79. Equity Fundamentals Stocks are extremely undervalued. 81.0% of all stocks are undervalued / 19.0% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009 we saw 91.1% of all stocks undervalued. All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages, but only four by 20.3% to 24.1, as the 30-Year bond yield starts to rise putting a drag on valuations. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com. VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V Tremendous Performance between September 14th and October 14th: We had 31 closed out Buy and Trade strategies in the ValuTrader Model Portfolio with only 2 losing trades. The average gain was 7.1%. On the short side we had 11 closed out trades in DIA, QQQ and SPY (8 winners / 3 losers) with an average gain of 4.2%. We had multiple trades in several stocks including: MMM, UTX and XOM. Between Sept 14th and Oct 14th the S&P 500 was up just 3.0%. ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slow stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold. Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Richard Suttmeier Chief Market Strategist ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576 To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.