Risiko Risk-in-a-Box

An open source risk modelling platform

Jonathan G iffi G J h Griffin Geophysicist, AIFDR h i i

WhoisAIFDR?

AninitiativeofthePresidentofIndonesiaand PrimeMinisterofAustraliato Prime Minister of Australia to

StrengthenIndonesiascapacityindisasterrisk management,andpromoteamoredisaster g , p resilientregion.

JointlydirectedbyBNPBandAusAID

RiskinaBox

Indonesias2007DMLawrequiresallProvinces andmanyDistrictsto:

Developadisastermanagementplan Basedonariskassessment Opensource,freelyavailableandcanrunwithor withoutinternet

Needatooltofacilitatetheseassessments

RiskinaBox Risk in a Box

Frameworkforcalculatingspatialimpactusing Framework for calculating spatial impact using arangeofsoftwaretools Aimsatunderpinningriskassessment Aims at underpinning risk assessment requirements PartnershipwithWorldBank(GlobalFacility P t hi ith W ld B k (Gl b l F ilit forDisasterReductionandRecovery)and Geoscience A t li G i Australia

Impact assessment p
Input

Hazardmap(earthquakegroundshaking,tsunami p q g g inundationdepth,volcanicashload...) Exposuremap(populationdensity,buildings) Pluginforcalculatingimpact(vulnerabilitycurves) Mapofcalculatedimpactatexposurelocations M f l l di l i Specificstatistics

Output

Maumere,Flores,Tsunamisimulation

1992Tsunamigenerated y g bymagnitude7.8 earthquake ~2,000fatalities Maximummagnitude g consideredpossibleon FloresThrustis8.1 Populationand infrastructurehasgrown since1992 Thereforehistoricalevent isnotenoughfordisaster is not enough for disaster planning

Observered tsunami run up heights from 1992 run-up event. Field Survey by Tsuji (1995)

Tsunami inundation modelling g

Inundationmodelresults Mw8.1

Riskinabox Inundation

BuildingdatadigitisedfromOpenStreetMap

Vulnerabilityfunction
BasedonBNPBstsunami riskassessmentguidelines Depth <1m 1m 13m >3m >3m Damage <25% 25% 2550% 50 100% 50100%

Koshimura 2009. Fragility functions from post-tsunami f ti f tt i data in Banda Aceh

Impactassessment

Earthquakeimpact Hazard,Mw7.8

Exposure population

Impact

Realtimeearthquakeimpactusethe sameframework same framework

MorethanaRiskMap

Geospatialdataanalysis Adaptabletodifferentquestions

Scenarioimpactassessmentfordisasterplanning p p g Realtimeimpactassessment Financialriskassessment

Differentvulnerabilityfunctionscanbeused tosolvetheseproblems to solve these problems

Challenges

Vulnerabilityfunctions Vulnerability functions Improvingmaplookandfeel Toolstofacilitateexposuredataupload T l t f ilit t d t l d

RiskinaBoxsummary

Aplatformfordatasharingandanalysistosupport resilientdecisionmaking g Aflexibleenvironmentthatcanbeadaptedto disastermanagersneeds g Combinesthebestofexperthazardandvulnerability expertisewithlocalknowledgeofexposure Allsoftwarefreeandopensource www.riskinabox.org