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Dr Askin T.

Isikveren Director, MSc Integrated Aerospace Systems Design Director, Engineering Design Degree Programme Depts of Aerospace Engineering & Engineering Mathematics email: Askin.T.Isikveren@bristol.ac.uk & edes-direct@bristol.ac.uk

Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in Engineering Design Education


March 2009

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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The Business Case


In all engineering initiatives the only acceptable basis for launching a [product] development programme is one in which low risk, high ROI and shortest possible timeline is secured Up to 80% of the life-cycle cost of most high valued-added engineered products is incurred during the conceptual design phase By the time completion of the design and development stage occurs 95% of the product cost is fixed and most of the development cost is spent

Ref: VKI Lecture Series A US Perspective on Future Commercial Airplane Design McMasters, 2005

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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Complex Investment Decisions


Are categorised by:
Long investment periods Outgoings over many years Income over many years Large and frequent expenditures Significant risk factors
Increase net cash inflow

Create Positive cash flow earlier

It requires:

Decrease net cash outflow

Annual Cash flows over many years An account for the time effect on the value of money Determination of the value of the investment in terms of todays Money NPV The return needs to be compared to the fixed return of the other investment to determine which is most suitable

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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SEER-H Software: Why is it useful?


Used widely in industry US DoD, Boeing (e.g. the AH64A Apache Rotorcraft), Ford, Northrop Grumman Provides development, production, operations and support estimates for systems and sub-systems (also estimate integration costs) Can input detailed part information, such as complexity or finishing details, to improve estimate
Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objective Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objective optimisation problem optimisation problem best and balanced design best and balanced design

Engineering Design Education: AEROSPACE Group Design Project


Aerospace Vehicle Design & Systems Integration 3F/4F
Each Group (10-12 members) is required to carry out the design of a complete aircraft to the given Design Specification The study is competitive with each Group attempting to produce the best, balanced design

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009

Support
Each Group has a academic advisor General support is given by a team of active and retired externals

Duration
The project is 16 contact weeks, spanning early-Oct to mid-Feb

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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UB2009F Project Brief


The Greener By Design committee have proposed that instead of flying long distance routes non-stop, significant fuel savings could be achieved by flying these routes as two or more shorter flights, stopping en-route to refuel. The purpose of this task is to design a passenger aircraft to compete against mid-sized non-stop, longrange aircraft, but optimised for multi-stop operations, and hence a shorter design range requirement. The aircraft must meet the regulatory, economic and environmental needs of operators for an intended Entry into Service date of 2020.

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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UB2009F Project Competitors

B757-300

B767-300

A330-200

B787-8

A350-800

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UB2009F Project Low-risk, Low-cost Option

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UB2009F Student Project Proposals

GRP 1F

GRP 2F

GRP 3F

GRP 4F

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GRP 2F Family of Aircraft


300

3200nmrange 300/406passengers 148TMTOW

Passengers

250

4000nmrange 250/338passengers 143TMTOW


200

6000nmrange 200/284passengers 152TMTOW

Range(nm)

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GRP 2F Final Design Results


vs.UB2009(LHRSIN) Noise=51% DOC=2% CO2=13% NOx=21%

COC=9%

BlockFuel=15%

BlockFuel=5%

COC=21%

CO2=8% NOx=5% Noise=60%

BlockTime=+18%

vs.VX250(LHRSIN)

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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GRP 2F Modelling

Input
EquipmentType Application Platform AcquisitionCategory Weight MaterialComposition Quantity MeanTimeBetweenFailure (electricalcomponents)

Output
DevelopmentCost ProductionCost EquipmentSupportCost SystemLevelCost DevelopmentLabourHours

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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GRP 2F Modelling Results

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GRP 2F Modelling Results

Viridis aircraft were designed with:


Common wing, empennage, undercarriage and engines SEER-H software was used to calculate the product development cost if there was no family commonality and it was found that:
V200 production unit cost of V200 was reduced by 5.4% and V300 by 4.1%

Breakeven analysis was also carried out using SEER-H software


Analysis shows the return can be boosted USD4B if family commonality exists

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GRP 2F Scope-Schedule Planning

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The Engineering Design Degree Programme


Future Leaders of Multi-disciplinary [Large-scale] Engineering Projects How?
Capture a broad systems architect understanding engineering, business, social/environmental issues Foster excellent communication skills Acquire experience in working in multi-disciplinary teams Specialist competence in one sub-discipline of Engineering Gain experience in applied and practical engineering

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Engineering Design: Industrial Partners

GE Aviation Propellers & Avionics Galorath as Software Partner

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Engineering Design Education: ENGINEERING DESIGN Industrial Group Projects


A genuine back-burner issue that needs resolution Multi-disciplinary team with headcount of 5 students Compatible with the man-power, computing and workshop resources of the University Spend limit of 2,000 from the University plus support from the Industrial Sponsor Two-year timescale
First year emphasis on design candidates for down-select, experiments rigs and/or modelling/simulation tools Second year focuses on detailed design, integration, optimisation and business case

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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Y0102 Cohort: Completed Y0506 (inaugural)


Motorola: Robotic Security Guard
Robotic investigator able to navigate autonomously around a mapped environment, log and avoid obstacles, and identify objects of interest

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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Y0203 Cohort: Completed Y0607


Arup: Redeveloping Blackfriars Station
Innovative redevelopment of existing Blackfriars Railway Station into a transport interchange ready for the increased growth demands

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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Y0304 Cohort: Completed Y0708


Airbus UK: Multi-modal Freight Hub
Feasibility and preliminary design of a multi-modal freight hub at the former RAF base at Lyneham

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Group Industrial Projects Completion Y0809


Arup: Elevated Ride / Transport System between mainland and Lulu Island in Abu Dhabi Mechanical Handling System for Nuclear Waste Flasks Novel Propeller Pitch Change Mechanism for Open Rotor Aero Engine Personal Eco Footprint Reduction System Hydro Pico Generator for Mobile Phone Base Station

Babcock:

GE Aviation:

HP Labs: Motorola:

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BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask


Project Objective To reduce the cost of ILW interim storage facilities by simplifying the mechanical handling of waste and considering different methods of storage CurrentILWStorageProcess Problems with current method:
Increased final volume of waste containers are still extremely radioactive Storage facilities very expensive

Solution advantages:
Volume reduction techniques, such as vitrification Dispense with complicated mechanical handling systems Less expensive storage facilities Designed for low cost production
ProposedShieldedPackage
Standardised shieldedlid Standardised package exterior Wasteliner VariableSteelshot concreteshielding

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BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask


ThroughLifeCostofanInterimILWStorageProject
Largeconstructioncost ofstoragefacility Overallcost saving

Project Cost
Reducedinitialcost

CurrentStorageMethod

StorageUsingShieldedContainers

Time

Business case objectives:


Prove total cost of ILW interim storage is reduced Show reduced yearly expenditure, resolving funding issues

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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors


Then

Investigate the feasibility of adopting open-rotor layout for 150-200 seat, single-aisle aircraft, EIS around 2018 A TSFC (fuel burn) drop of 25% must be met or exceeded The increase in maintenance costs must not exceed the benefit gained from efficiency improvements Simple, reliable mechanism for blade pitch change is required
The Easyjet Ecojet

Now .

Jet?

Business Case in Engineering Design Education Galorath Conference 2009


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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors


Model based on best case of ~400 aircraft orders a year Initial engine production cost estimate of $7.1M similar to CFM56 list price of $7.0M
No.per Engine Nacelle EngineCore(basedonexisting tech) HydraulicActuators HydraulicPump PropBlades ElectricalHarness Transformer SystemIntegrationCosts Totals 1 1 18 2 18 1 2

GE UDF Engine Program: Life Cycle Cost Allocation


Development (0.8% )

Production (40.5%)

Operating Site (22.5%)

Total Equipment Support (31.2%) Total SystemLevel Cost (5.0%)

Chartshowingthebreakdownofthelifecyclecostof~$48bil
WeightperEngine (kg) 200 2500 21.6 20 180 10 260 DevelopmentCost ($) 15,600,000 318,000,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 8,500,000 350,000 23,400,000 122,200,000 491,850,000 ProductionCostper unit($) 200,000 5,800,000 1,500 11,500 6,500 4,000 116,000 Costperengine ($) 200,000 5,800,000 27,000 23,000 117,000 4,000 232,000 745,000 7,148,000

Weightperunit (kg) 200 2500 1.2 10 10 10 130

43

3191.6

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MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower
Project Objective Design of a pico-hydropower system (under 1.5 kW) to power a mobile telephone base-station in developing countries Currently expensive diesel generators are used renewable power should be cheaper and more environmentally friendly

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MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower
Many conflicting factors
More civil works more reliable water flow smaller system overall Complex electronic control higher cost but higher system efficiencies Simplified turbine runner lower cost but reduced efficiency

Considerations include:
Site Selection Dam Materials and Weir Orientation Turbine Housing Turbine Runner Electrical Generator Battery System
Cost Performance

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Y0607 Cohort: Completion Y0910 & Y1011


Wind-powered Vehicle design, build and test a vehicle to carry one person that can drive directly into the wind Submit entries for Aeolus Competition in the Netherlands

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