AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Oil And Oil Seed Gains On Global Cues

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Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

J E E R A(DECEMBER)

G U A R S E E D (DECEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

INDIAN JEERA UNDER PRESSURE ON HIGHER ARRIVALS

Expert
Opinion

INDIAN GUAR SEED LIKELY TO GAIN ON FIRM EXPORTS

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Trend remained weak for Jeera as moderate arrivals amidst low export demand and good sowing prospects kept sentiments weak for the commodity. Traders expect more short term corrections till exports pick up significantly. Reports on the sowing progress in Gujarat and Rajasthan would be important for the short term market sentiments. Good rains early this year could have a positive impact on the sowing activities as per traders. Medium term trend looks firm from expected rise in export demand but short term trend is expected to remain volatile. Firmness in Dollar v/s Re. too could support the export factor. Lower production in Turkey and Syria could impart firmness to Indian rates. Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tonnes. Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a moderate bullish impact on the prices. Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the estimated exports of Spices for the period April-Sept 2011 have fallen by 19% from 294925 MT in 2010 to 237585 MT in 2011. Jeera exports fell by 15% from 18800 MT to 16000 MT during the same period.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar Spot prices as well as Futures extended gains during the week and settled 0.45% higher on Wednesday owing to reduced arrivals at the domestic mandis. Expectation of revision in the Guar output is providing support to the prices. Fall in export demand due to uncertainties in the European markets has been pressurizing market sentiments as traders wait for exports to rise. Low production and stock prospects could support rates in medium term though. Arrivals remained steady at 60,000 bags on Wednesday as compared to 70000-75000 bags in the beginning of the month. Despite of lower output estimates in the current season arrivals are much higher. This is because farmers this season are not holding back their stocks due to record high prices. Record Average daily arrivals are hovering around 90 thousand to 1 lakh bags compared to 55-60 thousand bags in the previous year. As per First Advanced Estimates of Kharif Crop in Rajasthan, the sowing area is 29.07 lakh hectares compared to 30 lakh hectares last year. Production expected at 11.37 lakh tonnes v/s 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11(Directorate of Agriculture, Rajasthan). Traders estimate that in Haryana too the sowing area has fallen to 2.15 lakh ha v/s 2.56 lakh ha last year. Production expected at 2 lakh tonnes while in Gujarat, production estimates at 0.65 lakh tonnes. Better rains in Rajasthan and Gujarat are however expected to improve productivity of the crops this year. Financial problems in US and EU are worrisome however on export front. It needs to be noted that rates have come down significantly over last 1 month due to lower export demand. Lower carryover stock and delayed harvesting along with reports of a fall in production and a likely pickup in exports could support the prices. A strong Dollar v/s Re. could have a beneficial impact on the export front.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Higher Arrivals Good Sowing Prospects

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Jeera was in a tight range and price was neither sustaining at higher levels nor at lower levels, Jeera is in a continuous downtrend but it has good support around 13100 levels and price is not sustaining near it. For the next week Jeera December contract has resistance at 14000 and support at 13250.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a bearish trend and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 13250 then we can expect the level of 12950, and if it sustains above 14000 then we can see the level of 14250.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Less Arrivals Firm Exports

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guar seed did our target of 4300 above the level of 4220 and even closed above it. Last week in Guar seed we saw good buying coming at lower levels and it closed near to its weekly high. For the next week Guar seed has resistance at 4540 and support at 4265.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4540 we can see the level of 4600, and below 4265 it can touch the level of 4215.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 14711 14214 13959 13717 13462 13220 12723

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5127 4733 4602 4339 4208 3945 3551

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Weekly Chart

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

SOYABEAN ( D E C E M B E R )

C H A N A (DECEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

INDIAN SOYBEAN GAINS ON GLOBAL CUES

Expert
Opinion

INDIAN CHANA TO EDGE HIGHER ON EXTENDED BUYING

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX December Soybean futures traded higher on account of firm overseas market as improved demand from China and spot demand was reported to be supportive for prices. Demand from China is due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning for more US Soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of Soybeans from the U.S. Despite arrivals increasing in markets stockists and crushers are actively buying which helped prices to gain a tad. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of Soybeans. As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, Indian Soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year. USDA's monthly S & D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Brazil Soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower Soybean and cottonseed production. The Soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures extended gains during the week and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down on Wednesday on account of lackluster trades at the domestic mandis. There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period. The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for four-fifth of the gram produced in the country. Government announced Support Price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons. Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn. Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Improved Overseas Demand Active Buying

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean moved in a range and prices were neither sustaining at higher levels nor at lower levels but on the last two days we saw good buying coming at lower levels. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2300 and support at 2190.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above the level of 2300 we can see the level of 2330 and on the downside if it sustains below 2190 level we can see Soybean at 2160 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Improved Buying Tight Global Market Supplies

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 3590 above the level of 3540 but was not able to sustain at higher levels. Last week Chana was in a bullish trend for most part of the week but on the last two days we saw some profit booking coming at higher levels. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3635 and support at 3525.

STRATEGY
For the next week in Chana one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above 3635 we can see the level of 3690 and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 3525 we can see Chana at 3470.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2348 2296 2273 2243 2220 2191 2138

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3863 3715 3648 3567 3500 3419 3271

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Weekly Chart

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date
20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-MAR- 12 30-APR-12 20-DEC -11 30-NOV-11

Commodity Name
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN
SOY OIL REFINED

Price Unit
RS/QUINTAL

Previous Close
13624 34790 4694 4155 13424 3505 2223 623.5 3122 1197 1016.5 629.2 719 1188 1315.4 648

Open

High

Low
13476 34405 4572 4077 13201 3486 2214 624.55 3125 1168 1006.5 558 705 1178 1301.5 639

Close

Qty. Traded
29874 16023 44050 1139920 91625 939570 471880 779460 458680 279060 20730 21225 24671 33740 20957 21410

Net

Open Interest
15330

Weekly TurnOver * (Rs. in Lakhs)

37,137.42

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX

13700 34920 4732 4148 13400 3511 2229.5 624.55 3130 1187 1015 628.1 715.5 1187 1307.5 653.3

13973 35155 4888 4471 14132 3634 2266.5 647.2 3191 1235 1021 637 735.9 1213 1372.5 678.7

13704

80

RS/QUINTAL

34755

-35

9969

41,872.34

RS/QUINTAL

4804

110

15315

18,444.59

RS/QUINTAL

4471

316

160230

411,997.28

RS/QUINTAL

14132

708

16670

111,563.88

RS/QUINTAL

3582

77

201890

300,937.46

RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS

2250

27

160240

89,529.12 443,717.15 125,174.41

644.4

20.9

109430

RAPE MUSTARD SEED RS/QUINTAL

3183

61

117500

COTTONSEED OILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL

1202

75940

29,072.15

GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL

RS/40KGS

1012.5

-4

5910

4,789.69

RS/QUINTAL

606

-23.2

6990

1,136.32

RS./20KG

714.7

-4.3

11330

30,526.93

RS/QUINTAL

1210

22

23760

3,446.28

RS/KG

1361.1

45.7

2657

87497.97

CARDAMOM

MCX

15-DEC-11

CARDAMOM

RS/KG

656.3

8.3

4215

12899.93

* Turnover Till Friday [6] [6] [7] [7]

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
13704 34755 4804 4471 14132 3582 2250 644.4 3183 1202 1012.5 606 714.7 1210 1361.1 656.3

% Change
0.59 -0.10 2.34 7.61 5.27 2.20 1.21 3.35 1.95 0.42 -0.39 -3.69 -0.60 1.85 3.47 1.28

Scripts
JEERA (DEC) PEPPER (DEC) TURMERIC (DEC) GUARSEED (DEC) GUARSGUM (DEC) CHANA (DEC) SOYBEAN (DEC)
REFINED SOYA OIL (DEC)

R3
14711.67 36271.67 5386.67 5127.67 15683.67 3863.33 2348.50

R2
14214.67 35521.67 5070.67 4733.67 14752.67 3715.33 2296.00

R1
13959.33 35138.33 4937.33 4602.33 14442.33 3648.67 2273.00

PP
13717.67 34771.67 4754.67 4339.67 13821.67 3567.33 2243.50

S1
13462.33 34388.33 4621.33 4208.33 13511.33 3500.67 2220.50

S2
13220.67 34021.67 4438.67 3945.67 12890.67 3419.33 2191.00

S3
12723.67 33271.67 4122.67 3551.67 11959.67 3271.33 2138.50

684.02 3298.33 1335.67 1042.33 758.33 780.33 1487.03 737.40

661.37 3232.33 1268.67 1027.83 679.33 749.43 1416.03 697.70

652.88 3207.67 1235.33 1020.17 642.67 732.07 1388.57 677.00

638.72 3166.33 1201.67 1013.33 600.33 718.53 1345.03 658.00

630.23 3141.67 1168.33 1005.67 563.67 701.17 1317.57 637.30

616.07 3100.33 1134.67 998.83 521.33 687.63 1274.03 618.30

593.42 3034.33 1067.67 984.33 442.33 656.73 1203.03 578.60

MUSTARD (DEC)
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (DEC)

GUR (DEC) POTATO (MAR 2012) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (NOV) CARDAMOM (DEC)

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GUARSEED GUARGUM Expiry Date 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 Closing Price 4471 14132 1361.1 % Change 7.61 5.27 3.47

Weekly Losers
Commodity POTATO KAPAS GUR Expiry Date 20-MAR -12 30-APR -12 20-DEC -11 Closing Price 606 714.7 1012.5 % Change -3.69 -0.60 -0.39

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MENTHA OIL 30-NOV-11

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