GENIES Objectives

An integrated impact assessment tool for urban policy makers to

GUIDE DECISION BY Combining analysis of climate and local impacts Developing what if scenarios to consider climate and disaster risk in macro decisions Proposing and evaluating costs and benefits of interventions by sector and across sectors OBJECTIVES & GOALS Institution and capacity development Science-based policy making Regional cooperation Analysis of potential future mega projects Effective linking with disaster risk reduction

Conceptual Coverage of GENIES

Climate and Regional Pollution Modeling Analysis & Visualization (GIS) Global

Systems Analysis for Policy

Impacts Modeling

Regional

Urban

How do we do this?
Partnership
with local and international institutions, experts in evaluating the environmental health endpoints, climate change, water security, and urban infrastructure needs IPCC GCM data is publicly available Regional Climate Model Asia Integrated Models (AIM) CLIMsystems impact model library +++++

Building on existing resources Practical steps forward

Planning workshop at ADB in August 2011 with key institutions to initiate partnering platform Prototyping in example city to aggregate data and models, carry out case study, and refine design

GENIES Conceptual Framework

Addressing local and global climate change Effects on natural systems Impacts on people

ASSESSING RISKS

ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
EXPOSURE TO RISKS ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

INTERVENTION OPTIONS
Modular, incremental investments

Sea level rise

URBANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT Land subsidence More people at risk Wetland loss Strengthen zoning laws Strengthen compliance Ecocities approaches Developing new sources of water Early warning systems Risk-sensitive land use planning Seasonal & permanent migration Protective infrastructure

Review of cross- sectoral links

NATURAL DISASTERS

Floods and Storms Heatwaves Droughts More and larger storms

Address all potential natural hazards in light of urbanization

Sea wall Sea wall Sea wall 1m 5m 3m ------------ -----------Rezoning Relocation of hazard -----------Desalinareas ation ------------ ------------ -----------Other Other Other options options options

CLIMATE CHANGE

Salt water intrusion More variability

Add Climate projections as part of urban planning

As modeling capability improves, so can the specificity of interventions.

City Master Plan Overall plan transport Urban development Flood control Waster water treat. Green space

Overall plan

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Ho Chi Minh City has outlined its spatial development ambitions for moving towards the sea for the year 2025 in its (revised) Spatial Master Plan.

Climate change Sea level rise Precipitation changes Temperature changes Extreme precipitation Heat waves Storms- typhoon

Extreme precipitation change Precipitation scenario (cm) Sea level rise change Data requirement Risk assessment (%) Only A1FI Current 50 year scenario extreme precipitation displayed with 50 Year Return event could become 23 low, medium 23 Year Return year event in 2050. and high Higher resolution DEM data (as such LiDAR to sensitivity data) are desirable 2100 356.73
20500 A1FI

449.41

Extreme precipitation 2050 A1FI A1FI 2030 values increase faster than mean precipitation Data requirement

A1FI 2100

Source: SimCLIM: A1FI Scenario and Medium Sensitivity

Sea level rise impacts Road infrastructure Railway and ports Water supply Critical infrastructure Salt water intrusion Coastal erosion Agricultural prod

risks- Agricultural production coastal Saltwater intrusion water erosion Sea level rise risks railway and ports Sea level rise risks -road supply
Roads infrastructure saline Currently, extensive The ~3000km water Landuse change: impacted by extreme flood intrusion is of railway are supply network and the 187 km experienced diversification supply events in regular flooding, during 2050 water affected; ~570,000 without expected to be floodconnections in the and and33 is predicted that control system. it km of monorail there would bewill run neighbouringa sky railway districts Approximatelyprojected significant 76% (about surrounding the city through 45increase in saline intrusion kmflooded areas; length centre willof the of road) be affected of in 2050.planned flood of theThe axis roads might by regular and 60% two Close to extreme beagriculturalprojectare inundated by an extreme flooding. lands will control event do nothing to protect expected to theaffected by without be protection ofsalinity in 2050. increased the flood the port facilities. control system.

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Can Gio mangrove biosphere reserve

SLR-adaptation options

SLR-adaptation dyke system-road supply SLR-adaptation Ecological restoration& port SLR-adaptation Climate proof building SLR-adaptation dyke system-water system-railway
The planned dykes will The planned southern New development and reduce this percentage Chi treatmentmonorail 33 km ofplant in Cuand redevelopmentof about 44% (26 affected to building District will likely be Rehabilitated mangrove sky railway will run km of road). water affected as design- port area levels forests by planting over

Dyke system Ecological restoration Climate proof building Planned relocation Floodplain

through most The dykes arean estimated increase to projected 37 million trees along flooded areas; reduced effective in the existing 2m area and Shippingaboveprotecting the 460km axis the dykes to level during extreme East-West of if road. sea14 km coastland; Floating are put in place. warehouse flood events, if the flood control systems are not established. The planned treatment plant in District 9 is not likely to be affected.

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Conclusion
Review Flexibility Data Requirements ??? The future Flexibility Data requirements Thank you Good study needs good data Data sources need to be assessed through data audit early in implementation phase More definition means more accurate data Global climate data downscaled and preloaded Local time series climate data compatible and preloaded Spatial GIS data global, regional and local sources; needed for analysis and visual context Can be applied to Quality digital elevation model at high resolution for sea level rise modeling virtually any urban area when minimum data requirements are met

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