NH GI KH NNG NG DNG CA HAI CH TIU TI CHNH - KINH T

T S HON VN NI B IRR V CH TIU GI TR HIN TI RNG NPV

TRONG VIC PHN TCH HIU QU U T CA D N CNG
ASSESSING ABILITY OF TWO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: INTERNAL RATE OF
RETURN (IRR) AND NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) TO APPLY FOR ANALYSING
INVESTMENT EFFECT OF A PORT CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
KS. NGUYN NGC HNG
TRNG I HC XY DNG
1. Tm tt: Trong vic phn b ngun vn ta c th s dng rt nhiu phng php khc
nhau nh gi mt d n, mi phng php u c nhng u nhc im ring.
Trong bi vit ny xin a ra mt s nhn nh v vic s dng hai ch s IRR v NPV
nh gi mc kh thi ca mt d n cng.
Abstract: For sharing in capital of a project, we can use many different methods to assess.
Each method has own strong points and weak-points. In this article, represent some
comments on using two economic indicators IRR and NPV to assess the feasibility of a
port construction project.
2. t vn
Nh chng ta bit phn tch ti chnh ca d n cng thng ch trng n lng tin
i vo v lng tin i ra t d n cng gi l dng tin ca d n cng. m bo cn i
cc dng tin (dng vo v dng ra) l mc tiu quan trng ca phn tch ti chnh d n
cng.
Trn thc t c nhiu ch tiu kinh t - ti chnh c s dng phn tch, nh gi
hiu qu u t ca d n cng. Ty theo tng loi hnh d n, ty theo iu kin c th cu
d n cng m la chn ch tiu kinh t - ti chnh cho ph hp.
Thc t cc d n cng ca chng ta hin nay th vic phn tch hiu qu u t ca d
n cng thng s dng hai ch tiu kinh t - ti chnh tnh ton hiu qu u t ca d n
cng l t sut hon vn ni b (Internal Rate of Reture - IRR) v gi tr hin ti rng (Net
Present Value - NPV).
3. Ni dung phng php t sut hon vn ni b v phng php gi tr hin ti
thun
3.1. T sut hon vn ni b (IRR)
3.1.1. T sut hon vn ni b l mc li sut m d n c th t c m bo cho tng
cc khon thu ca d n cn bng vi cc khon chi thi gian mt bng hin ti.
3.1.2. tnh IRR c nhiu phng php, nhng tnh IRR theo phng php ni suy thng
c s dng v vic tnh ton khng phc tp, chnh xc hp l c th chp nhn c.
Cng thc:
NPV 1
IRR = r1 + ( r2 r1 )
; (1)
NPV 1 NPV 2
IRR = r1 + (r2-r1).NPV1/(NPV1 NPV2)
Trong :
IRR: H s hon vn ni b cn ni suy (%)
r1: T sut chit khu thp hn ti NPV1 > 0 gn st 0 nht
r2: T sut chit khu cao hn ti NPV2 < 0 gn st 0 nht.

NPV: Gi tr hin ti rng

IRR cn tm (ng vi NPV = 0) s nm gia r1 v r2
Bn cht IRR c th hin trong cng thc sau:
n
n
1
1
CI t
= CO t
;
(2)

t
(1 + IRR )
(1 + IRR ) t
t=0
t=0
Trong :
n: S nm hot ng ca d n
t: Nm bt u thc hin d n c coi l nm gc
CIt: Gi tr lung tin mt thu ti nm t
COt: Gi tr lung tin mt chi ti nm t (gm chi ph u t v chi ph vn hnh hng
nm ca d n) (xem [1] tr 157).
3.1.3. Nguyn tc s dng ch tiu ny
Mt d n u t c chp nhn khi c IRR r min
Trong r min l li sut i vay nu phi vay vn u t, c th l t sut li nhun
nh mc do nh nc qui nh, nu vn u t do ngn sch cp. C th l chi ph c hi
nu s dng vn t c u t. Trong trng hp so snh nhiu d n c lp la chn
th d n no c IRR cao nht s l d n tt nht.
3.2. Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
3.2.1. Thu nhp cn li sau khi tr i cc chi ph gi l thu nhp rng (NPV). Gi tr hin
ti rng l tng gi tr hin ti ca dng thu nhp rng m d n cng mang li trong c vng
i ca n. Mc ch ca vic tnh gi tr hin ti rng ca d n cng l xem xt vic s
dng cc ngun lc (vn) trong thi gian thc hin d n cng c mang li li ch ln hn
cc ngun lc s dng hay khng?
3.2.2. NPV c xc inh theo cng thc sau
NPV =

( CI
t=0

CO t ).( 1 + r ) t ;

(3)

Trong :
CIt, COt, r, t , n tng t nh cng thc (1) v (2)
3.2.3. Nguyn tc s dng ch tiu ny
Khi s dng ch tiu NPV lm c s nh gi tnh kh thi ca d n cng, ngi ta chn
phng n phn tch vi NPV 0
4. nh gi kh nng ng dng ca ch tiu IRR v NPV v xut phng php
4.1. ng dng h s IRR trong phn tch hiu qu vn u t (Cng Xi mng Vinashin - H
Nam)
4.1.1. S liu tm tt ca d n
Tng s vn u t: 9785 tr. ng
Trong
:
- Vn t c ca Cng ty TNHH mt thnh vin u t Vinashin: 10%
- Vn vay ngn hng: 90%
- Mc li vay vn bnh qun l 9%/nm
Thi gian xy dng trm l 1 nm (nm 2008)
Thi gian hot ng ca d n (bao gm c thi gian xy dng) l 16 nm (2008
2023)
n gi xut xi mng 0,63405 triu ng/tn

 Khu hao u trong 5 nm bng 3,485% vn u t

Thu VAT (10%)
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip bng 32% li tc chu thu
Trn c s cc ti liu k thut, thit k v d bo th phn xi mng ti H Nam v cc
tnh khc min Bc Vit Nam, ngi ta d kin sn lng bn xi mng, doanh thu hng
nm nh s liu trong Bng 1 (Gi tr thu nhp hng nm) v Bng 2 (D tr cc khon thu
chi hng nm ca d n).
Bng 1: Gi tr thu nhp hng nm
Sn lng bn
Gi chit np
Doanh thu
TT
Nm
(tn)
(triu ng)
(triu ng)
1
2008
2
2009
5207
0,63405
3301
3
2010
6801
0,63405
4312
4
2011
8370
0,63405
5307
5
2012
9029
0,63405
5725
6
2013
10474
0,63405
6642
7
2014
12051
0,63405
7641
8
2015
13317
0,63405
8444
9
2016
14400
0,63405
9130
10
2017
14400
0,63405
9130
11
2018
14400
0,63405
9130
12
2019
14400
0,63405
9130
13
2020
14400
0,63405
9130
14
2021
14400
0,63405
9130
15
2022
14400
0,63405
9130
16
2023
14400
0,63405
9130

TT

Ch tiu

A
1
2
B
1
2

Cc khon thu
Doanh thu
Vn u t
Cc khon chi
Vn u t
Chi ph vn
hnh
Thu VAT
Thu li tc
Tin li vay
Tng chi
Cn i thu chi

3
4
5
6
7

Bng 2: D tr cn i thu chi

n v tnh: Triu ng
Nm hot ng
2008
0
9785

2009
3301

2010
4312

2011
5307

2012 2013
5725 6641

2014
7641

2015
8444

1379

1406

1434

1463 1493

1531

1562

330
150
782
2641
660

431
483
626
2946
1366

531
810
496
3271
2036

572 664
971 1276
313 156
3319 3589
2405 3052

764
1711

884
1932

4006
3635

4338
4106

9785

-62
195
-9918
-9918

Stt
A
1
2
B
1
2

Ch tiu

Nm hot ng
2016
9130

2017
9130

2018
9130

2019
9130

2020 2021
9130 9130

2022
9130

2023
9130

1595

1628

1663

1705

1742 1780

1819

1860

3
4
5
6

Cc khon thu
Doanh thu
Vn u t
Cc khon chi
Vn u t
Chi ph vn
hnh
Thu VAT
Thu li tc
Tin li vay
Tng chi

913
2119

913
2109

913
2097

913
2084

913 913
2072 2060

913
2047

913
2034

4627

4650

4673

4702

4727 4723

4779

4807

Cn i thu chi

4503

4480

4457

4428

4403 4377

4351

4323

4.1.2. Tnh ton cc ch tiu phn tch

Cn c vo s liu trong bng 1 v bng 2 ta tnh
a: Ch tiu Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) theo cng thc (3)
Vn dng cng thc (3) ta tnh gi tr hin ti rng NPV
Kt qu tnh ton: NPV(r = 9%) bng 14.935,123 triu ng
b: Tnh ch tiu h s hon vn ni b IRR
Vi kt qu m tm gi tr r1 = 23,5%
V r2 = 24%
Th NPV(r1) = 182.192 triu ng
V NPV(r2) = - 73667,89 triu ng
Vn dng cng thc (1) ta c:
182192
IRR = 23,5 + ( 24 23,5)
182192 + 73668
= 23,86%

Kt qu ny cho thy IRR = 23,86%, tc l nh hn r (r= 9%) d n t hiu qu

kinh t cao v hon ton chp nhn c theo phng din ny.
4.3. Kt lun
Qua vic vn dng ch tiu h s hon vn ni b IRR phn tch hiu qu kinh t ca
d n kh thi cng xut xi mng Vinashin H Nam, c th rt ra mt s nhn xt nh sau:
- u im
+ H s hon vn ni b IRR l ch tiu hay c s dng m t tnh hp dn ca d n
v IRR l ch tiu th hin tnh li nhun ca d n, mt mt n biu hin li sut m d n
mang li trn vn u t, mt khc n th hin t l li vay vn ti a m d n c th chp
nhn c. y l u im quan trng nht.
Vic s dng tiu chun ny thch hp vi trng hp v l do no ngi nh gi
mun trnh vic xc nh t sut chit khu c th dng nh gi gi tr hin ti rng ca
d n (NPV)
- Nhc im

+ Vic p dng ch tiu ny c th khng chnh xc nu tn ti cc khon cn bng

thu chi thc (NCF) m ng k trong giai on vn hnh d n. Lc NPV ca d n s
i du nhiu ln khi chit khu theo t sut chit khu khc nhau v ng vi mi ln i
du l mt ln xc nh IRR khc nhau m ta khng bit gi tr no l thch hp cho vic
nh gi;
+ Tiu chun ny s cho bit kt qu sai lch trong trng hp so snh cc phng n
loi tr nhau;
+ Vic tnh IRR s phc tp i vi nhng ngi tnh ton bng tay.
Xut pht t nhng l do trn c th ni H s hon vn ni b IRR c coi l ch tiu
thch hp p dng cho cc trng hp gp kh khn trong vic tm t sut chit khu
thch hp tnh NPV ca d n hoc ngi ta mun bit mc sinh li ca vn u t trong
thi gian hot ng ca d n l bao nhiu.
Trn th gii hin nay cn rt nhiu cc tiu ch dng nh gi hiu qu u t xy
dng cng. nh gi c tiu ch no c th p dng hiu qu vo cng tc u t xy
dng cng Vit Nam i hi chng ta phi nghin cu su hn th mi c th kt lun
c.
Ti liu tham kho
1. Ernst G. Frankel Port Planning and Development - Massachusets Institute of
Technology 1987
2. Vin Kinh t Xy dng Ti liu nghip v nh gi xy dng B Xy dng
3. V Cng Tun Phn tch Kinh t D n u t Nh xut bn Ti chnh