CHNG 4

PHN TCH PHNG N

THEO SUT SINH LI NI
TI (IRR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

Ni dung
4.1 nh ngha sut sinh li ni ti (IRR)
4.2 Phng php tnh IRR
4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n u t theo IRR
4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR
4.5 Bn cht ca IRR
4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.1 nh ngha
Sut sinh li: T s tin li thu c trong
mt thi on so vi vn u t u thi
on, biu th bng %
VD:

F= + $53,900,000

40

P= - $80,000

Tm i=?
p n: F= P (1+i) N
$53,900,000 = $80,000 (1 + i) 40
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.1 nh ngha
Sut sinh li ni ti internal rate of return
IRR: l mc li sut m nu dng lm h s
chit khu quy i dng tin t ca d n th
gi tr hin ti ca thu nhp PWR s cn bng
vi gi tr hin ti ca chi ph PWC.
PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
AWR = AWC hay AWR - AWC = 0

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Trc khi tnh IRR, cn lu phn loi cc
hnh thc u t.
Hnh thc u t thng thng (simple /
conventional investment)
Hnh thc u t khng thng thng
(nonsimple / nonconventional investment)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Hnh thc u t thng thng (simple /
conventional investment)
Dng tin u t ban u l m (-), tip theo
dng tin thu vo l dng (+). V dng tin
ca c d n ch i du mt ln.

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

P= + $6,000

-$1,000 -$1,000 -$1,000 -$1,000 -$1,000

Dng tin u t ban u l dng (+), tip theo

dng tin i ra (-). V dng tin ca c d n
ch i du mt ln.
Dng tin i vay thng thng (simple borrowing
cash flow)
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Hnh thc u t khng thng thng
(nonsimple / nonconventional investment)
L d n trong dng tin i du nhiu
hn mt ln.

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Thi on N

D n A

D n B

D n C

-$1,000

-$1,000

+$1,000

-$500

$3,900

-$450

$800

-$5,030

-$450

$1,500

$2,145

-$450

$2,000

D n A: d n u t thng thng
D n B: d n u t khng thng thng
D n C: d n vay thng thng

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cc cch tnh IRR (p dng cho d n u
t thng thng):
Tnh trc tip (ch p dng cho DA c TKPT 2
nm hoc ch xut hin dng tin trong 2 thi
on)
Phng php ni suy
Excel

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Tnh trc tip:
N

D n A

-$1,000

+ $1,500

p dng cng thc:

PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
PW(i*) = -1000 + 1500(P/F,i*,4)= 0
- 1000 + 1500 / (1+i*)4 = 0
i* = 10.67%

Tm IRR?

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Tnh trc tip:

D n B

-$2,000

+ $1,300

+$1,500

Tm IRR?

p dng cng thc:

PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
PW(i*) = -2000 + 1300/(1+i*) + 1500/(1+i*)2 = 0
t X = 1/(1+i*)
PW(X) = -2000 + 1300X + 1500X2 = 0
X1 = 0.8 & X2=-1.667
i*1 = 25% & i*2 = -160%
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Phng php ni suy:
9B1: d on gi tr i1 lm cho PW(i1)<0
9B2: d on gi tr i2 lm cho PW(i2) > 0
9B3: tnh i* gn ng bng cng thc:
i* = i2 + (i1-i2) x [PW(i2) / (PW(i2) PW(i1))]
9B4: th li bng cch th i* vo phng trnh PW(i*)=0

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Phng php ni suy:
S liu ban u
Chi ph v thu nhp
(triu ng)
u t ban u
Chi ph hng nm
Thu nhp hng nm
Gi tr cn li (SV)
Tui th - TT (nm)
Xc nh

D n A

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

100
22
50
20
5
IRR?

14

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

AR = 50
0
P = 100

SV = 20

AC = 22

p dng cng thc:

PWR PWC = 0
(50tr 22tr )(P/A, i%, 5) + 20tr(P/F, i%, 5) 100tr = 0
S dng PP ni suy tm IRR:
Nu i1 = 20% th PW(20%) = -8,220,000
Nu i2 = 15% th PW(15%) = 3,800,000
i* = 15% + (20% -15%) x 3,800,000
3,800,000 (- 8,220,000)
Vy: IRR = 16.5% nm

= 16.5%

15

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cch tnh IRR trn Excel:

16

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cch tnh IRR trn Excel:

Chn dng
tin
Nhp gi tr i d
on gn ng
vi IRR

Dng tin

0
-100

IRR = 16.476%

1
28

2
28

3
28

4
28

5
48

IRR=(D5:I5, 0.1)
17

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Lm sao quyt nh chn hay khng
chn d n?
D n A

0
-100

1
28

2
28

3
28

4
28

5
48

IRR = 16.476%

Gi s ta khng u t vo d n A, m
dng100tr gi NH vi li sut 12%/nm.
Vy 12% c ngha g? Nn chn d
n A hay gi NH l c li nht?
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

12% chnh l chi ph c hi nu vic gi 100tr
vo NH l c hi u t tt nht m bn c
vo thi im .
Nu c c hi u t no cho sut sinh li cao
hn 12% th bn s chn c hi u t . Vy
12% y xem nh l sut thu li ti thiu
chp nhn c minimum acceptable rate
of return MARR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

i (%)
PW(i)
10%
18.56
11%
15.35
12%
12.28
13%
9.34
14%
6.51
15%
3.80
16%
1.20
16.5%
0
17%
(1.30)
18%
(3.70)
19%
(6.01)
20%
(8.23)
21% (10.36)

PW(i)
25,00

Chn

Khng chn

20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00

IRR=16.5%

0,00
(5,00)
(10,00)
(15,00)

MARR %

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Quy tc chung:
Khi IRR khng nh hn sut thu li ti thiu chp
nhn c MARR th c hi u t ng gi v mt
kinh t
9IRR > MARR : PW > 0 (chp nhn d n)
9IRR = MARR : PW = 0 (c th chp nhn hoc khng)
9IRR < MARR : PW < 0 (khng chp nhn d n)
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

21

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Lu : i vi d n u t khng thng thng
(dng tin i du hn 1 ln) th ta s c nhiu gi
tr IRR.
N

-$1,000

-$1,000

+$1,000

-$500

$3,900

-$450

$800

-$5,030

-$450

$1,500

$2,145

-$450

$2,000
i*=10%

i*=16.66%

i*=44.24%

i*=30%
i*=50%
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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V D
A & B L 2 D N LOI TR LN NHAU. BIT SUT SINH
LI TI THIU CHP NHN C (MARR) L 8%:
D
N

-42.000 14.000

14.000 14.000 14.000 14.000

-45.000 28.000

12.000 10.000 10.000 10.000

HY TNH IRR CA TNG D N

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Chng ta c th xp hng d n loi tr nhau
bng tiu ch IRR khng?
N

D n A

D n B

-$1000

-$5000

$2000

$7000

IRR

100%

40%

PW(10%)

$818

$1364

PW l pp tnh theo s tuyt i (v: tin t)

IRR l pp tnh theo s tng i (v: %)
D n no c PW ln nht s c chn. Tuy nhin, nu da trn
tiu ch IRR, ta khng th chn d n no c IRR cao nht v IRR
khng tnh n quy m ca d n Cn s dng pp gia s.
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Nguyn tc phn tch theo gia s:
1) So snh d n c vn u t ban u ln hn
vi PA c vn u t ban u nh hn ch khi PA
c u t nh hn l ng gi (c IRRMARR)
2) Chn PA c vn u t ban u ln hn nu gia
s vn u t l ng gi (IRR(U) MARR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

25

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Cc bc tnh IRR (U) :
1. Lp dng tin tng thm gia 2 d n bng
cch ly dng tin c chi ph u t ln hn
(B) tr dng tin c chi ph u t thp hn
(A).
2. Tnh IRRB-A ca dng tin tng thm (B-A)
3. Quy tc chn:
9IRRB-A > MARR: chn B
9IRRB-A < MARR: chn A
9IRRB-A = MARR: chn A hoc B
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

V d p dng pp gia s:
N
0
1
IRR
PW (10%)

A
-$1,000
+$2,000
100%
$818

Ti sao l B-A
m ko l A-B

B
B-A
-$5,000 -$4,000
$7,000 +$5,000
40%
25%
$1,364
$546

Gii thch:
Nu u t thm $4,000 vo d n B, d n s to ra
thm dng tin vo l $5,000. Sut sinh li ca vic
u t thm $4,000 ny vo d n B l 25%
(>MARR=10%)
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

27

Th tc so snh nhiu phng n:

tham kho sch KTKT tr. 84, 85
9B1: Xp cc PA theo th t tng dn vn u t: A,B,C
9B2: Xem PA s 0 (PA khng thc hin u t) nh l PA c th.
Tnh IRR() khi chuyn t PA 0 A.
9Nu cc PA ch c chi ph m khng c thu nhp: dng A l PA c
th, B l PA thay th. Chuyn sang bc 4.
9B3: Nu IRR(A) < MARR, gt b A v tnh RR(B) cho PA B tip theo.
Lp li bc ny cho n khi c mt PA X no m IRR(X) > MARR.
PA ny tr thnh phng n c th v PA c u t ln hn k tip
l PA thay th.
9B4: Nu IRR(PA c th) MARR ta xc nh chui dng tin t gia
s gia cp phng n c th v thay th.
9B5: Tnh IRR() ca chui dng tin t gia s
9B6: Nu IRR() > MARR, gt b PA c th v ly PA thay th lm
PA c th. Ngc li gt b PA thay th v ly PA tip sau lm PA
thay th mi.
9B7: Lp li bc (4) n (6) cho n khi ch cn 1 PA. l PA
c chn.
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

So snh cc PA loi tr nhau sau y, tm PA c li nht theo
phng php da trn IRR, vi MARR=18%. TTKT cc PA = 1 nm
Chi ph v thu
nhp (triu )
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
Gi tr cn li

Cc phng n
A

1.000
150
1.000

1.500
375
1.500

2.500
500
2.500

4.000
925
4.000

5.000
1125
5.000

7.000
1.425
7.000

U T BAN U = GI TR CN LI IRR = THU NHP RNG/U T BAN U

Gia s
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
IRR
ng gi
Kt Lun

BC

BD

DE

EF

1.000
150
15%

1.500
375
25%

1.000
125
12,5%

2.500
550
22%

1.000
200
20%

2.000
300
15%

Khng

Khng

Khng

Chn PA E
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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4.5 Bn cht ca IRR

IRR l sut thu li ca mt d n vi gi thit l
cc dng thu nhp rng dng (CFt) u c
em u t li vi sut thu li lm cho PWR =
PWC hay AWR = AWC
Ch s IRR ca mt d n u t khng phi l
sut thu li ca vn u t ban u, m l sut
thu li tnh theo cc kt s cn li ca vn
u t u cc thi on.

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

30

4.5 Bn cht ca IRR

Kt s cn li
u nm

Tin li tnh
trn kt s cn
li u nm

-$10,000

-$6,979

-$3,656

-$1,000

-$697

-$365

Dng tin

-$10,000

+$4,021

+$4,021

+$4,021

Kt s cn li
cui nm

-$10,000

-$6,979

-$3,656

Cng ty t c sut sinh li 10% trn s tin cn li dng

ti u t vo d n. V s tin li thu c xut hin trong ni
ti d n, nn ta c khi nim sut sinh li ni ti .
31

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

Phng php PW v IRR u dn n mt kt lun
khi la chn phng n u t.
V l thuyt: Phng php PW u th hn do IRR
s khng tnh c trong trng hp dng tin i
du nhiu ln.
V thc t: Phng php IRR c a chung hn
do pp ny cung cp mt cch trc quan v s liu t
sut sinh li ca phng n.

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

32

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

i%
1
5
10
15
20

NPVA
25,94
18,6
11,07
4,93
(0,12)

NPVB
23,31
17,25
10.91
5,7
1,28

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

QUYT NH CHP NHN HAY KHNG CHP NHN D
N: CHO RA CNG MT QUYT NH
NPV ($)

IRR > i
& NPV > 0
CHP NHN.

i > IRR
& NPV < 0.
KHNG CHP
NHN.

i (%)
IRR

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

i% < 10.7%: NPVA> NPVB , IRRB> IRRA

MU THUN
i% > 10.7%: NPVB> NPVA , IRRB > IRRA
KHNG MU THUN

i1
%

i2
%

KHI C MU THUN GIA HAI PHNG PHP DNG

QUYT NH XP HNG D N: NPV & IRR C TH A RA
NPV LM C S RA QUYT NH
CC KT QU MU THUN NHAU

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

Bi tp 4.1, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.10

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

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