The Future of Mobility and its Impact on Tourism

Part 1: Impacts of travel motives and interests

Institute of Tourism ITW Prof. Dr. Jrg Stettler Head of Institute T direct +41 41 228 41 46 juerg.stettler@hslu.ch Lucerne 27 April 2009

Content
- Study concept, scope of interpretation and thematic framework - Results: Impacts of travel motives and interests on future aspects of mobility and tourism - Conclusion and ideas for discussion

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Design of the study

Key questions: - How do experts rate trends that may effect mobility and tourism by 2030? - Are there any differences with regard to the experts background (field of expertise und continent)? Sample and response rate: - 3,949 experts contacted by e-mail and online questionnaire - 1,137 participated (29%) - 471 experts participated anonymously through e-mail newsletters - Total sample: 1,608 experts
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Scope of interpretation
Field of expertise Tourism Mobility/ Transport Technology Society Science Other fields TOTAL Frequency 228 792 219 158 115 95 1,608 Percent 14% 49% 14% 10% 7% 6% 100% Continents North America South America Europe Asia Africa Australia No response TOTAL Frequency 216 37 1,129 115 37 39 35 1,608 Percent 13% 2% 70% 7% 2% 2% 2% 100%

Are there differences as regards field of expertise and the continent?

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Analytical framework of the study

Presentation Part 1
Societal aspects Information and communication technology Individual travel interests and motives Evironmental and ecological aspects

Presentation part 3
Supply and demand
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Presentation part 2
Transport systems

Travel motives

Health, time for ones self and sport/physical activities are increasing; winter sport and beach holidays are decreasing
Health prevention Health rehabilitation Time for one's self Sports, physical activities Time for the partner and family Event tourism (sport, show, concert, culture) Experiencing nature and the outdoors Learning, broadening horizons To be pampered Intercultural experiences Knowledge gain Spontaneity MICE, business trips Romantic experiences Nightlife Winter sport holidays Beach holidays
15% 15% 10% 7% 50% 56% 63% 39% 37% 33% 73% 22% 71% 66% 59% 53% 50% 50% 49% 47% 47% 46% 45% 44% 50% 26% 28% 35% 43% 42% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 46% 43% 4% 6% 7% 4% 8% 5% 7% 7% 10% 9% 9% 12% 18% 12%

Increased
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Unchanged

Decreased

Travel motives: Conclusions

- The importance of health is evident in the high ratings of experts, who see health prevention and rehabilitation as an increasing travel motivator. - Specialised forms of tourism will rise in importance by 2030; they will gain market share from classical forms of tourism. - Despite the increasing importance of specialised forms of travel, winter tourism and beach holiday will still have the largest market share as seen from their current level. - Decision makers in the tourism market must develop new offers in order to meet new types of demand.

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Choice of means of transport

Customer expectations increase in most cases, only prestige aspects remain stable or decrease slightly

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Choice and modal split of means of transport

Increasing importance of environmental friendliness of transport means
Increased Unchanged
3%

Fair travel is more important for private trips than for business trips
Important Not Important

Increased share of public transport systems in the modal split

Agree Disagree

Decreased

25%

18%
47%
73%

53%

82%

Business trips

Large scale replacement of air travel by high speed trains

33% 67%

39% 61%
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Private trips

Travel expectations and tourism supply

Increasing importance of frequency of schedule
Increased Unchanged
1%

Decreased

26%

The hospitality industry underestimates the importance of connections to public transport when guests choose a hotel

73%

Agree

Disagree

Increasing importance of travel time

22%
Increased Unchanged
2%

Decreased

78%

32% 66%

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Travel expectations and tourism supply: Conclusions

- Since environmental concerns are of rising importance for customers when travelling, the significance of public transport is likely to increase as well. - Consequently good access by public transport to tourism destinations will be an essential factor by 2030. - This is not only the case for hotels, but for the whole destination and all its suppliers.

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Conclusion and ideas for discussion

- Framework conditions, mobility, and tourism are closely interwoven - Our data offers a glimpse of possible scenarios - The anticipation of future scenarios leads to decisions today that are likely to shape mobility and tourism in future. As a result

Self-fulfilling prophecy: The belief of people, stakeholders, experts and decision makers of how the future will turn out by 2030 will impact the outcome.
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Thank you for your attention!

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