Chi ph s dng vn

Cng ty Nike
Ngy 5 thng 7 nm 2001, Kimi Ford, ngi qun l danh mc u t ca tp on
NorthPoint, mt cng ty qun l qu h tng, tp trung vo nhng bi phn tch v
cng ty Nike - mt nh sn xut giy th thao. Gi c phn ca Nike gim ng k t
u nm. Ford ang xem xt v vic mua c phn cho qu m c qun l Qu vn ha
ln NorthPoint qu ny u t trong hu ht vo 500 cng ty trong danh mc
Fortune, v tp trung ch yu l vo u t gi tr. Danh mc hng u ca qu bao gm
cc cng ty nh ExxonMobil, General Motors, McDonalds, 3M, v cc c phiu c vn
ha ln khc. Trong khi th trng c phiu st gim trong 18 thng qua, th qu
NorthPoint hot ng rt tt. Trong nm 2000, qu ny t t sut sinh li 20.7%,
trong khi S&P 500 mt i 10.1%. Vo cui thng 6 nm 2001, t sut sinh li ca qu
ny tnh ti ngy ny vn ng vng 6.4% so vi -7.3% ca S&P 500.
Ch mt tun trc , vo ngy 28 thng 6 nm 2001, Nike t chc hi ngh phn
tch l gii kt qu ca nm ti chnh 2001.1 Tuy nhin, cuc hp li c mc ch
khc, l ban qun l Nike li mun thng bo mt chin lc nhm ti sinh cng ty.
K t nm 1997, doanh thu ca cng ty n nh vo khong 9 t la trong khi li
nhun rng gim t 800 triu la cn 580 triu la (xem Bng 1). Th phn giy th
thao Hoa K ca Nike gim t 48% trong nm 1997 xung cn 42% trong nm 2000. 2
Hn na, nhng vn v chui cung ng v tc ng bt li gn y ca vic ng la
mnh ln c nh hng tiu cc ln doanh s.
Ti cuc hp, Ban qun l cng b k hoch nhm vo tng trng doanh s v hiu qu
hot ng. Nhm tng doanh thu, cng ty s pht trin nhiu hn sn phm giy th thao
trong phn khc gi trung bnh3 phn khc gi m Nike xem xt cn trng trong
nhng nm gn y. Ngoi ra, Nike cn nh hng y mnh lnh vc may mc v lnh
vc ny chu s lnh o ca cng ty k cu Mindy Grossman4, v cng ty ny hot
ng rt tt. V mt chi ph, Nike c gng kim sot chi ph. Cui cng, ban iu
hnh ca cng ty lp li mc tiu tng trng doanh thu di hn khong 8% n 10%
v mc tiu tng trng thu nhp trn 15%.

Nm ti chnh ca Nike kt thc vo thng 5.

Douglas Robson, Lm mt iu g : Nike thin cn v cng ngh giy dp lm n hot ng tr li, Tun
bo kinh doanh, (02 thng 07 nm 2001)
3
Giy th thao trong phn khc ny bn gi t $70 n $90 mt i
4
Mindy Grossman gia nhp Nike thng 9/2001. C ta tng l tng gim c iu hnh ca Polo
2

Phn ng ca cc nh phn tch th hn hp. Mt vi ngi ngh rng nhng mc tiu ti

chnh ny l qu cng thng trong khi nhng ngi cn li thy c c hi pht trin
ng k trong lnh vc may mc v cc vn hot ng kinh doanh quc t ca Nike.
Kimi Ford c tt c cc bo co phn tch m c ta c th tm thy v cuc hp ngy 28
thng 6. Nhng cc bo co khng cho c mt ng hng r rng: bo co ca
Lehman Brothers th ngh mua, trong khi cc nh phn tch ca UBS Warburg v
CSFB by t s lo u v cng ty v ngh nm gi. Thay vo , Ford quyt nh
xy dng d on dng tin v hin gi c c mt kt lun r rng hn.
D on ca c cho thy rng ti mc chit khu l 12%, Nike b nh gi cao hn mc
gi c phn hin hnh, mc gi hin hnh l 42.09 la. (Bng 2). Tuy nhin, phn tch
nhy cm ca cng ty li cho thy Nike b nh gi thp mc chit khu di
11.17%. Do Ford sp c cuc hp nn c gi th k Joanna Cohen c lng chi ph
s dng vn cho Nike.
Cohen lp tc tp hp tt c thng tin m c ta cho l cn thit (Bng 1,2,3,4) v bt u
phn tch. Vo cui ngy, Cohen trnh kt qu c lng chi ph s dng vn v tin
in t (Bng 5) gii thch nhng gi nh m c s dng tnh ton cho Ford.

BNG 1: Bo co ti chnh hp nht

Nm kt thc 31 thng 5 (n v triu la ngoi tr thng tin mi c phn)

Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
Chi ph bn hng v qun l
Thu nhp hot ng
Chi ph li vay
Chi ph khc
Chi ph ti cu trc

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

$4,760.80

$6,470.60

$9,186.50

$9,553.10

$8,776.90

$8,995.10

$9,488.80

2,865.30
1,895.50
1,209.80
685.70
24.20
11.70
-

3,906.70
2,563.90
1,588.60
975.30
39.50
36.70
-

5,503.00
3,683.50
2,303.70
1,379.80
52.30
32.30
-

6,065.50
3,487.60
2,623.80
863.80
60.00
20.90
129.90

5,493.50
3,283.40
2,426.60
856.80
44.10
21.50
45.10

5,403.80
3,591.30
2,606.40
984.90
45.00
23.20
(2.50)

5,784.90
3,703.90
2,689.70
1,014.20
58.70
34.10
-

649.80

899.10

1,295.20

250.20

345.90

$399.60

746.10

919.20

921.40

499.40

653.00
253.40

294.70

340.10

331.70

$ 553.20

$795.80

$ 399.60

$451.40

$ 579.10

$ 589.70

$ 1.36

$ 1.88

$ 2.68

$ 1.35

$ 1.57

$ 2.07

$ 2.16

294.00

293.60

297.00

296.00

287.50

279.80

273.30

Doanh thu
Thu nhp hot ng

35.90

42.00

4.00

(8.10)

2.50

5.50

42.20

41.50

(37.40)

(0.80)

15.00

3.00

Thu nhp thun

T sut sinh li (%)
T sut li nhun gp
T sut li nhun hot
ng
T sut li nhun rng

38.40

43.90

(49.80)

13.00

28.30

1.80

39.60

40.10

36.50

37.40

39.90

39.00

15.10

15.00

9.00

9.80

10.90

10.70

8.50

8.70

4.20

5.10

6.40

6.20

Thu sut hiu lc*

38.50

38.60

38.80

39.50

37.00

36.00

Thu nhp trc thu

Thu thu nhp
Thu nhp thun
Thu nhp t c phiu ph thng
S lng c phn trung bnh
Tng trng (%)

*Thu sut lin bang Hoa K l 35%. Thu tiu bang trong nm khc t 2.5% n 3.5%
Ngun thng tin: Cng ty UBS Warburg

BNG 2

Phn tch dng tin chit khu

2002

2003

2004

Gi nh
Tng trng doanh thu
7.00
6.50
6.50
(%)
Gi vn hng bn/Doanh
60.00
60.00
59.50
thu
Chi ph bn hng v qun
28.00
27.50
27.00
l/Doanh thu
Thu Sut (%)
38.00
38.00
38.00
Ti sn ngn hn/Doanh
38.00
38.00
38.00
thu (%)
N ngn hn/Doanh thu
11.50
11.50
11.50
(%)
Khu hao hng nm v chi
tiu vn bng nhau
Chi ph s dng vn (%)
12.00
T sut tng trng gi tr
3.00
cui cng
Dng Tin Chit Khu (n v triu la ngoi tr thng tin mi c phn)
Thu nhp hot ng
$ 1,218.40
$1,351.60
$1,554.60
Thu
463.00
513.60
590.80
NOPLAT
755.40
838.00
963.80
Chi tiu vn, bng khu
hao
Thay i trong vn lun
(174.90)
(186.30)
chuyn
8.80
Dng tin t do
764.20
663.10
777.50
Gi tr cui cng
Tng dng tin
Hin gi dng tin
Gi tr doanh nghip
Tr: n hin hnh
Gi tr c phn
Tng c phn ang lu
hnh
Gi mi c phn

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

6.50

6.00

6.00

6.00

6.00

6.00

6.00

59.50

59.00

59.00

58.50

58.50

58.00

58.00

26.50

26.00

25.50

25.00

25.00

25.00

25.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

38.00

11.50

11.50

11.50

11.50

11.50

11.50

11.50

$1,717.00
652.50
1,064.50

$1,950.00
741.00
1,209.00

$2,135.90
811.70
1,324.20

$2,410.20
915.90
1,494.30

$2,554.80
970.80
1,584.00

$2,790.10
1,060.20
1,729.90

$2,957.50
1,123.90
1,833.60

(198.40)

(195.00)

(206.70)

(219.10)

(232.20)

(246.20)

(261.00)

866.10

1,014.00

1,117.50

1,275.20

1,351.80

1,483.70

1,572.60
17,998.30

764.20

663.10

777.50

866.10

1,014.00

1,117.50

1,275.20

1,351.80

1,483.70

19,570.90

$ 682.30
$11,415.40
$ 1,296.60
$10,118.80

$ 528.60

$ 553.50

$ 50.50

$ 75.40

$ 66.20

$ 76.80

$ 45.90

$ 35.00

6,031.20

271.50
$

37.27

Gi mi c phn hin hnh

$ 42.09

Mc nhy cm ca gi tr c phn i vi t sut chit khu

T sut chit khu
Gi tr c phn
8.00%
$ 75.80
8.50%
67.85
9.00%
61.25
9.50%
55.68
10.00%
50.92
10.50%
46.81
11.00%
43.22
11.17%
42.09
11.50%
40.07
12.00%
37.27
Ngun: Bo co t ngi vit tnh hung

BNG 3: Bng cn i ti sn hp nht

(n v triu la)
Ngy 31/05
2000

Ti sn
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin mt v tng ng tin
Phi thu
Hng tn kho
Thu thu nhp hon li (deffered income taxes)
Chi ph tr trc

254.30
1,569.40
1,446.00
111.50
215.20

Tng ti sn ngn hn
t ai, nh xng v trang thit b (rng)
Ti sn v hnh (rng)
Thu thu nhp hon li v cc ti sn khc
Tng ti sn
N v vn c phn
N ngn hn
N di hn n hn
Thng phiu phi tr
Ti khon phi tr
N tch ly
Thu thu nhp phi tr
Tng n ngn hn
N di hn
Thu thu nhp hon li v cc n khc
C phiu u i km theo quyn hon tr

2001

304.00
1,621.40
1,424.10
113.30
162.50

3,596.40
1,583.40
410.90
266.20

3,625.30
1,618.80
397.30
178.20

5,856.90

$ 5,819.60

50.10
924.20
543.80
621.90
-

5.40
855.30
432.00
472.10
21.90

2,140.00
470.30

1,786.70
435.90

110.30
0.30

102.20
0.30

Vn c phn
C phiu ph thng
Thng d vn
B p quyn chn cha thc hin ca nhn vin
(unearned stock compensation)
Khon thu nhp tch ly khc
Li nhun gi li

2.80
369.00

2.80
459.40

(11.70)
(111.10)
2,887.00

(9.90)
(152.10)
3,194.30

Tng vn c phn

3,136.00

3,494.50

$ 5,856.90

$ 5,819.60

Tng n v vn c phn

BNG 4: Th trng vn v thng tin ti chnh vo 05/07/2001

T sut sinh li hin hnh trn tn phiu Hoa K
3 thng
3.59%
6 thng
3.59%
1 nm
3.59%
5 nm
4.88%
10 nm
5.39%
20 nm
5.74%
Ph ri ro vn c phn trong lch s (1926-1999)
Trung bnh nhn
5.90%
Trung bnh cng
7.50%
T sut sinh li trn n ca cng ty Nike
Phiu coupon
6.75%
Ngy pht hnh
7/15/1996
Ngy o hn
7/15/2021
Gi hin hnh
95.6

c tr na nm

Beta trong qu kh ca Nike

1996
0.98
1997
0.84
1998
0.84
1999
0.63
2000
0.83
Nm ti chnh 30/06/2001
0.69
Trung bnh
0.8
c lng EPS
Nm ti chnh 2002
Nm ti chnh 2003
2.32
2.67

Lch s v d bo c tc
Ngy tr
31/12
1997
0.10
1998
0.12
1999
0.12
2000
0.12
2001
0.12

30/06
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12

30/09
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.12

31/12
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.12

Tng
0.40
0.48
0.48
0.48

D bo ca Value Line v tng trng c tc ca Nike t '98'00 n '04-'06: 5.50%

*Thng tin dnh cho mc ch hc tp
Ngun thng tin: Dch v ti chnh Bloomberg

BNG 5
n:
T:
Ngy:
Ta :

Phn tch t Joanna Cohen

Kimi Ford
Joanna Cohen
06-07-2001
Chi ph s dng vn ca Nike

Da trn nhng gi nh sau, c lng ca ti cho chi ph s dng vn ca Nike l 8,4%

I. Chi ph s dng vn n hay bi?
Cu hi u tin m ti ang xem xt l chi ph s dng vn n hay bi khi Nike l
mt cng ty a ngnh. Bn cnh phn khc giy dp (phn khc to ra 62% doanh
thu cho Nike), Nike cn c c phn khc may mc (30% doanh thu) nhm b tr cho
cc sn phm giy dp. Hn na, Nike cn bn c bng th thao, ng h, knh mt,
giy trt bng, vt, v nhng cng c khc dnh cho th thao. Cc sn phm thit b
chim 3.6% doanh thu ca Nike. Cui cng, Nike cn bn mt vi sm phm khng
thuc Nike nh o qun Cole Haan, giy dp, giy trt bng, gp v o hockey
thng thng, v cc sn phm khc di nhn hiu ca Bauer. Nhng nhn hiu
khng phi Nike to ra 4,5% doanh thu cho cng ty.
Ti t hi liu nhng phn khc ca Nike c ri ro khc nhau c lm cho chi ph
s dng vn khc nhau hay khng. Nhng h s ca nhng phn khc ny c thc s
khc nhau hay khng? Ti kt lun rng ch c Cole Haan l hi khc trong khi
nhng phn cn li l nhng ngnh kinh doanh u lin quan n th thao. Do Cole
Haan ch chim mt phn nh trong doanh thu v ti cng khng ngh l nn cn thit
tnh chi ph s dng vn mt cch tch bit. i vi dng may mc v giy dp, tt
c u c bn thng qua nhng knh qung b v phn phi nh nhau. Do ti tin
rng hai dng ny c cng cc nhn t ri ro, ti quyt nh ch tnh mt chi ph s
dng vn cho cng ty.
II. Phng php lun cho vic tnh ton chi phi s dng vn: WACC
Do Nike c ti tr t n v vn c phn, ti s dng phng php WACC (chi
ph s dng vn trung bnh). Da trn bng cn i k ton gn y nht, n so vi
tng vn chim 27% v vn c phn trn tng vn l 73%
Ngun vn

Gi tr s sch (v triu la)

N
N di hn n hn tr
Thng phiu phi tr
N di hn

5.4
855.3
435.9
1296.6

27.0% tng vn

Vn c phn

III.

3494.5

73.0% tng vn

Chi ph ca n

c lng ca ti cho chi ph vay n ca Nike l 4.3%. Ti t n c lng ny

bng cch ly tng chi ph vay n nm 2001 chia cho s d n trung bnh ca cng
ty.5 T sut ny thp hn t sut sinh li ca tri phiu, nhng l do Nike gia
tng vn cn thit thng qua thng phiu ng Yn Nht v thng phiu ny c t
sut sinh li gia 2% v 4.3%
Sau khi iu chnh thu, chi ph vay n t n 2.7%. Ti dng thu sut l 38%,
bng cch cng thm thu sut tiu bang 3% vo t sut thu lin bang ca Hoa K.
Trong lch s, thu tiu bang ca Nike bin ng trong khong 2.5% n 3.5%.
IV.Chi ph vn c phn
Ti c lng chi ph vn c phn s dng m hnh nh gi vn ti sn (CAPM).
Cc phng php khc nh l m hnh chit khu c tc (DDM) v t s thu nhp so
vi mc vn ha, c th c dng c lng chi ph vn vay. Theo quan im
ca ti, CAPM lun l mt phng php ti u.
c lng ca ti cho chi ph vn c phn ca Nike l 10.5%. Ti s dng t sut
sinh li hin hnh ca tri phiu chnh ph 20 nm lm li sut phi ri ro v phn b
ri ro tnh bng cch ly trung bnh nhn ca th trng tr li sut tri phiu kho bc
(5.9%). i vi beta, ti ly beta trung bnh ca Nike t 1996 n hin ti
Kt hp cc gi nh vo cng thc WACC, c lng chi ph s dng vn cho Nike
l 8.4%.
WACC = Kd(1-t) x D/(D + E) + Ke x E/(D + E)
= 2.7% x 27% + 10.5% x 73%
= 8.4%

S d n ca Nike ti 31/5/2000 v 31/5/2001 ln lt l $1,444.6 triu v $1,296.6 triu