Investment

1000000
0.06
0.18
RAD

1
2
3
4
5

500000
400000
370000
140000
120000

1.18
1.3924
1.643032
1.93877776
2.287757757

423728.8136
287273.7719
225193.4229
72210.44252
52453.10595
1060859.557
60859.55682

0.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4

Certainity Equivalent
350000
200000
185000
56000
48000

Certainity Equivalent
1.06
1.1236
1.191016
1.26247696
1.338225578

330188.6792
177999.288
155329.5674
44357.24514
35868.3923
743743.172
-256256.828

Year 1
Probability NCF
0.1
6000
0.25
8000
0.3
10000
0.25
12000
0.1
14000

10000 0.909090909
8000 0.826446281
6000 0.751314801
Cash out
NPV

600
2000
3000
3000
1400
10000

Year 2
Probability
0.1
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.1

NCF
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000

9090.909091
6611.570248
4507.888805
20210.36814
20000
210.3681443

Standard Deviation of Possible NCF

16000000
4000000
0
4000000
16000000

0.1
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.1

1600000
1000000
0
1000000
1600000
5200000
2280.35085

5200000
1.21
5200000 1.4641
5200000 1.7716

16000000
4000000
0
4000000
16000000

4297520.661
3551669.968
2935264.436
10784455.07
3283.969407

Year 3
Probability NCF
0.1
2000
0.25
4000
0.3
6000
0.25
8000
0.1
10000

400
1500
2400
2500
1200
8000

0.1
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.1

1600000
1000000
0
1000000
1600000
5200000
2280.35085

200
1000
1800
2000
1000
6000

16000000
4000000
0
4000000
16000000

0.1
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.1

1600000
1000000
0
1000000
1600000
5200000
2280.35085

Year 1
Probability NCF
0.1
800
0.2
600
0.4
400
0.3
200
RF Return

Year 2
Probability

NCF
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2

800
700
600
500

0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2

800
700
600
500

80
210
240
100
630

28900
4900
900
16900

0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2

2890
1470
360
3380
8100
90
90

0.05

Calculation of Expected NPV

0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3

800
600
400
200

80
120
160
60
420

420
630
840

0.952380952
400
0.907029478 571.42857
0.863837599 725.62358
1697.0522
CO
1500
197.05215

Standard Deviation for Expected Cash Flow

Year 1
144400
32400
400
48400

Year 2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3

14440
6480
160
14520
35600
188.6796226
189

Calculation of SD about NPV

189
90
262

35721 0.9070295
8100 0.8227025
68644 0.7462154

32400
6663.890046
51223.20969
90287.09973
300.4781186
300

Year 3
Probability NCF
0.2
1200
0.5
900
0.2
600
0.1
300

0.2
0.5
0.2
0.1

1200
900
600
300

240
450
120
30
840

129600
3600
57600
291600

0.2
0.5
0.2
0.1

25920
1800
11520
29160
68400
261.53
262

Year 3

Year 1
Probability NCF
0.2 15000
0.4 20000
0.3 25000
0.1 30000
RF Return

Year 2
Probability
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2

NCF
20000
23000
25000
28000

0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2

20000
23000
25000
28000

8410000
10000
4410000
26010000

0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.05

Calculation of Expected NPV

0.2
0.4
0.3
0.1

15000
20000
25000
30000

21500
22900
37000

3000
8000
7500
3000
21500
0.952380952 20476.19
0.907029478 20770.975
0.863837599 31961.991
73209.157
CO
50000
23209.157

Standard Deviation for Expected Cash Flow

Year 1
42250000
2250000
12250000
72250000

Year 2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.1

8450000
900000
3675000
7225000
20250000
4500
4500

Calculation of SD about NPV

4500
3208
9000

20250000 0.9070295
10291264 0.8227025
81000000 0.7462154

18367346.94
8466648.362
60443447.13
87277442.43
9342.23969
9342

Year 3
Probability NCF
0.1 25000
0.3 30000
0.3 35000
0.3 50000

10000
2300
5000
5600
22900

0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3

25000
30000
35000
50000

2500
9000
10500
15000
37000

144000000
49000000
4000000
169000000

0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3

1E+07
1E+07
1E+06
5E+07
8E+07
9000
9000

Year 3
4205000
1000
882000
5202000
10290000
3207.802986
3208

IF CFAT1

80000

0.3

CFAT2
Probability
40000
0.2
100000
0.6
150000
0.2
Rf
CO

0.08
200000

Path
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Year1
80000
80000
80000
110000
110000
110000
150000
150000
150000

Year2
40000
100000
150000
130000
150000
160000
160000
200000
240000

1.08

DF For year 1 DF for 2 year year1

0.925925926 0.85733882 74074.07407
0.925925926 0.85733882 74074.07407
0.925925926 0.85733882 74074.07407
0.925925926 0.85733882 101851.8519
0.925925926 0.85733882 101851.8519
0.925925926 0.85733882 101851.8519
0.925925926 0.85733882 138888.8889
0.925925926 0.85733882 138888.8889
0.925925926 0.85733882 138888.8889

IF CFAT1

110000

0.4

CFAT2
Probability
130000
0.3
150000
0.4
160000
0.3

Year 2
34293.55281
85733.88203
128600.823
111454.0466
128600.823
137174.2112
137174.2112
171467.7641
205761.3169

108367.6269
159807.9561
202674.8971
213305.8985
230452.6749
239026.0631
276063.1001
310356.6529
344650.2058

NPV
Joint Probability Expected NPV
-91632.37311
0.06
-5497.942387
-40192.0439
0.18
-7234.567901
2674.897119
0.06
160.4938272
13305.89849
0.12
1596.707819
30452.6749
0.16
4872.427984
39026.0631
0.12
4683.127572
76063.10014
0.03
2281.893004
110356.6529
0.24
26485.59671
144650.2058
0.03
4339.506173

IF CFAT1

150000 0.3

CFAT2
Probability
160000
0.1
200000
0.8
240000
0.1

IF CFAT1

25000

0.4

CFAT2
Probability
12000
0.2
16000
0.3
22000
0.5
Rf
CO

0.1
40000

Path
1
2
3
4
5
6

Year1
25000
25000
25000
30000
30000
30000

1.1

Year2 DF For year 1 DF for 2 year year1

12000 0.909090909 0.826446281 22727.27273
16000 0.909090909 0.826446281 22727.27273
22000 0.909090909 0.826446281 22727.27273
20000 0.909090909 0.826446281 27272.72727
25000 0.909090909 0.826446281 27272.72727
30000 0.909090909 0.826446281 27272.72727

IF CFAT1
CFAT2

30000

0.6

Probability
20000
25000
30000

0.4
0.5
0.1

Year 2
NPV
Joint Probability Expected NPV
9917.355372 32644.6281 -7355.371901
0.08
-588.4297521
13223.1405 35950.41322 -4049.586777
0.12
-485.9504132
18181.81818 40909.09091 909.0909091
0.2
181.8181818
16528.92562 43801.65289 3801.652893
0.24
912.3966942
20661.15702 47933.8843 7933.884298
0.3
2380.165289
24793.38843 52066.1157
12066.1157
0.06
723.9669421
3123.966942