Historical Unemployment

Recent Unemployment

Unemployment Rate (%)

Unemployment Rate (%)

11%

12

10%

10

8.6%

9%
8
8%

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Average Hourly Work Week

Sep-11

May-11

Non-Farm Payrolls (000's)

34.6
34.4
34.2
34
33.8
33.6
33.4
33.2

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Unit Labor Costs QoQ%

Productivity and Costs

Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY%)

Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM%)

0.7%

4.0%

0.6%

3.5%

Non-Farm Productivity QoQ%

4 per. Mov. Avg. (Unit Labor Costs QoQ%)

10%
8%

6%

0.5%

3.0%

0.3%

2.5%

0.2%

2.0%

0.1%

1.5%

4%
2%

YoY %

0.4%

0%

-2%

0.0%

-4%

1.0%

-0.1%
-0.2%

0.5%

-0.3%

0.0%

-6%
-8%
Jun-11

Apr-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Oct-10

Aug-10

Jun-10

Apr-10

Feb-10

Dec-09

Oct-09

Aug-09

Jun-09

Apr-09

Feb-09

Dec-08

Oct-08

Aug-08

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Oct-10

Aug-10

Jun-10

Apr-10

Feb-10

Dec-09

Oct-09

Aug-09

-10%
Jun-08

MoM %

Jan-11

34.8

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

1/8/2012

Sep-10

Avg. Weekly Hours

Nov-11

Jun-11

Jan-11

Aug-10

Mar-10

Oct-09

May-09

Dec-08

Jul-08

Feb-08

Sep-07

Apr-07

Nov-06

Jun-06

Jan-06

Aug-05

Mar-05

Oct-04

May-04

Dec-03

Jul-03

500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800

Average Hourly Earnings

May-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Non-Farm MoM (000's)

Manufacturing MoM (000's)
Private MoM (000's)

Change in Payrolls

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-06

May-08

4%
Jan-08

Sep-07

5%
May-07

Sep-06

6%

Jan-06

Jan-07

7%

2008

1996

1984

1972

1960

1948

Employment Charts

Unemployment Claims

Initial Claims

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Nov-10

Sep-10

May-10

Jul-10

200
Mar-10

2000
Jan-10

250
Nov-09

2500
Sep-09

300

Jul-09

3000

BLS - Non-Farm Payrolls (L)

ADP Payrolls (R)

500
400

200
100
0
-100
Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

May-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Nov-11

-200

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Employment / Population Ratio

Non-Farm Payroll Diffusion

Non-Farm Diffusion

Employment / Population Ratio (%)

80

66

70
64

60

62

50
40

60

30
58

20

56

10
2011

2011

2010

2010

2009

2009

2009

2008

2008

2007

2007

2007

2006

2006

2005

2005

2004

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

1999

2011

2010

2010

2009

2009

2009

2008

2008

2007

2007

2007

2006

2006

2005

2005

2004

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

2011

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Job Hires YoY%

1/8/2012

2000

54

Employment Charts

Thousands

300

Mar-10

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

-1000

Jul-08

350

Jan-11

-800

Apr-08

3500

Nov-10

-600

Jan-08

400

Sep-10

-400

Oct-07

4000

Jul-10

-200

Jul-07

450

Mar-08

Apr-07

4500

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150

200

Jan-07

500

Change in Payrolls Compared

December
400

Oct-06

5000

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

ADP Payrolls

ADP's Change in Private Payrolls

Jul-06

550

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

4 per. Mov. Avg. (Initial Claims (Thousands))

Apr-06

5500

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Feb-11

Jan-11

360

600

May-09

380

6000

Mar-09

400

650

Jan-09

420

6500

Nov-08

440

700

Sep-08

Continuing Claims

460

Continuing Claims (Thousands)

7000

Jul-08

480

May-08

Weekly Unemployment Claims

Initial Claims (Thousands)

Job Hires YoY%

Job Separations YoY%
Job Openings YoY%

JOLTS Job Reports

Corporate Announced Layoffs

3.5%

250

3.3%

200

3.1%
2.9%

150

2.7%

100

2.5%
2.3%

50

2.1%

1.9%

30.60%

1.7%

Employment Cost Index

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Extended Benefits
Emergency Benefits
Continuing Claims

Unemployment Claims

ECI YoY%
4.5
4

12
10

3.5
3

2.5

2
1.5

1
2

0.5

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Labor Force Participation Rate

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Oct-08

2011

2011

2010

2010

2010

2009

2009

2009

2008

2008

2008

2007

2007

2007

2006

2006

2006

2005

2005

2005

2004

2004

2004

2003

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation

Labor Force Participation

70%

68.0%

68%

67.0%

66%

64%

66.0%

62%

65.0%

60%
58%

64.0%

56%

63.0%

54%

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

1/8/2012

Sep-11

Feb-11

Jul-10

Dec-09

May-09

Oct-08

Mar-08

Aug-07

Jan-07

Jun-06

2008

Nov-05

2002

Apr-05

1996

Sep-04

1990

Feb-04

1984

Jul-03

1978

Dec-02

1972

May-02

1966

Oct-01

1960

Mar-01

1954

Aug-00

1948

62.0%

Jan-00

52%

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Employment Charts

Millions

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Feb-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Oct-10

Sep-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

-100

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Nov-10

Sep-10

Jul-10

May-10

Mar-10

Jan-10

Nov-09

Sep-09

Jul-09

May-09

Mar-09

Jan-09

Nov-08

Sep-08

Jul-08

1.5%

-50

BLS Private MoM (000's)

ADP Payrolls MoM (000's)

Comparison of Private Payrolls

Under-Employment

280

U-6 Underemployment Rate (%)

18%

180
16%

80
-20

14%

-120

12%

-220

10%

-320
-420

8%

-520

6%

-620
-720

4%

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Oct-10

Aug-10

Jun-10

Apr-10

Feb-10

Dec-09

Oct-09

Aug-09

Jun-09

Apr-09

Feb-09

Dec-08

-820

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Challenger Job Hires

Announced Hiring and Firing

Challenger Job Cuts

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Nov-10

Sep-10

Jul-10

May-10

Mar-10

Jan-10

Nov-09

Sep-09

Jul-09

May-09

Mar-09

Jan-09

Nov-08

Sep-08

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

1/8/2012

Employment Charts