Coastal Geomorphology

Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report
Coastal Geomorphology
Technical Annex - Eastern Yar Strategy
September 2006
Coastal Geomorphology.doc
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Notice
This document has been produced by ATKINS for the Environment Agency solely for the purpose of understanding the coastal geomorphology for the Eastern Yar Strategy Study. It may not be used by any person for any other purpose other than that specified without the express written permission of ATKINS. Any liability arising out of use by a third party of this document for purposes not wholly connected with the above shall be the responsibility of that party who shall indemnify ATKINS against all claims costs damages and losses arising out of such use.
Document History
JOB NUMBER: 5037319 Purpose and Revision Description D1 D2 Internal Review Final Report NJE NJE JMcC JMcC M. Bray M. Bray HR HR 30 June 2006 5 Sept 2006 Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date DOCUMENT REF: 5037319/71/DG_053
This report was produced in September 2006 and was correct at the time of writing. New information collected since the date of issue may result in some of the information contained being out of date.
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CONTENTS
1 2 Introduction......................................................................................................................1
1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 Aims and Objectives of the Study ........................................................................................................ 1 Background to the Project .................................................................................................................... 1 Data and Information Sources.............................................................................................................. 2 Aerial Photography Assessment .......................................................................................................... 5 Beach Profile Data Assessment........................................................................................................... 5 Holocene Development ........................................................................................................................ 6 Contemporary Coastal Hydrodynamics Description ............................................................................. 8 Contemporary Landform Description.................................................................................................. 13 Historic Human Intervention ............................................................................................................... 13 Morphological response to Human intervention ................................................................................. 14 Approach to Model Development ....................................................................................................... 17 Overview of Conceptual Sediment Budget......................................................................................... 17 Assessment of morphological change from aerial photos .................................................................. 18 Assessment of morphological change from beach profile data ............................................................ 5 Contemporary Coastal Behavioural Response Model.......................................................................... 6 Geomorphological controlling features ................................................................................................. 7 Hypothetical Do Nothing Development................................................................................................. 8 St Helens Duver Recession Assessment ............................................................................................. 9 Achievement of aim............................................................................................................................ 11
Methodology and Approach ...........................................................................................2
Coastal Evolution - Yar Estuary and Harbour ...............................................................6

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
Coastal Behavioural Response Model.........................................................................17

4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
Development of Management Scenarios.......................................................................7

5.1 5.2 5.3
6 7 8
Conclusions ...................................................................................................................11
6.1
References .....................................................................................................................12 Appendix A: Beach profile Data ...................................................................................14

Appendix A: Beach Profile Data
INDEX OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 - Proposed sediment movement in the Eastern Solent (After RACER, 2004) ....... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 3-1 Hypothetical reconstruction of the Ancient Solent River System at the beginning of the Holocene (approximately 12,000 years BP) (After Allen and Gibbard 1993, Velegrakis, 2000) ............................................... 6 Figure 3-2: Tide Bar for Bembridge Harbour (Admiralty Tide Tables, 2006) ............................................................ 9 Figure 3-3: Location of Wave Buoys (www.channelcoast.org) ............................................................................... 11 Figure 3-4: Wave Rose Plots for Hayling Island and Sandown Bay (www.channelcoast.org) ............................... 12 Figure 3-5: Historical maps of Bembridge Harbour ................................................................................................ 13 Figure 3-6: Composite map showing 2005 aerial photo with 1866, 1898 and 1909 coast and low water features 16 Figure 4-1- Composite map showing 2005 aerial photo with 1946, 1988, 2001 and 2005 coast and low water features (with 1909 channel position superimposed) ............................................................................................... 1 Figure 4-2 Close up of harbour entrance on the 2005 aerial photograph .............................................................. 1 Figure 4-3 Calculated erosion rates (mpa) for 1946-2005 overlain on the 2005 aerial photograph ...................... 2 Figure 4-4 Coastal Geomorphology Conceptual model - Historic ............................................................................ 4 Figure 4-5 Conceptual model for the present day conditions ................................................................................ 6 Figure 8-1: From the Southeast Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme, Annual Report 2004 ........... 15
TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT TU UT
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Term BP CD DSAS GIS IOWCCE LAT MHWN MHWS MLWN MLWS mODN mpa MSL OS RACER SCOPAC SRCMP Meaning / Definition Before Present Chart Datum Digital Shoreline Analysis System (USGS GIS tool) Geographical Information System Isle of Wight Centre for the Coastal Environment Lowest Astronomical Tide Mean High Water Neaps Mean High Water Springs Mean Low Water Neaps Mean Low Water Springs Metres to Ordnance Datum Metres per annum Mean Sea Level Ordnance Survey River and Coastal Environments Research University of Portsmouth Standing Conference On Problems Associated with the Coast Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme
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1.1
Introduction
Aims and Objectives of the Study
This report is produced to provide a statement on the coastal behavioural response and the coastal geomorphology of the Eastern Yar estuary and immediate coastal zone. This is prepared to assist in understanding its Holocene and recent development since the end of the last glacial period some 15,000 years before present (B.P.). This is important as the past 7,000 5,000 years BP, since sealevels approached their present elevation, represent a strategically key period in controlling the initial marine inundation of the valley. The report discusses human intervention over historical timescales in the area and how these have influenced the current processes and contemporary form of the Eastern Yar estuary. The report does not consider details of coastal engineering structures and the influence this has or may have on future shoreline evolution. The report considers three separate stages of estuarine development:
1 2 3
Pre-reclamation development of the estuary (response to inundation by rising sealevels); Response of the system to reclamation; Current and recent trends.
From consideration of these aspects, a basis for assessing the potential impact of a strategic Do Nothing scenario in the coastal and estuarial environment is undertaken and from this, the impact that this strategic option would have on both the adjacent river and coastal systems. Clarity on this matter shall enable more robust coastal/estuarine defence options to be proposed for further more detailed scrutiny within the study.
1.2
Background to the Project

This report is part of the data collection stage of the Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Study. Previously, work in the catchment and coastal zone has consisted of a series of independent studies and the coastal strategies as part of the Isle of Wight Shoreline Management Plan (Halcrow 1997) and North East Wight Coastal Defence Strategy Plan (Posford Haskoning, 2004). This Strategy Study (the Study) seeks to bring together all relevant studies and to fill the knowledge gaps that have been identified both in the studies themselves and as part of the Scoping stages of the Strategy Study. To this end the key operating authorities, the Environment Agency (the Agency) and the Isle of Wight Centre for the Coastal Environment (IWCCE), have agreed to undertake this Strategy Study as a joint approach with the Agency taking the lead on the day to day running of the project.
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2.1
2.1.1
Methodology and Approach

Data and Information Sources
Overview
Information used and data collected as part of this report to assist in understanding the historical developing includes the following:
Isle of Wight SMP; NE Coast Strategy Study; Futurecoast (Defra); SCOPAC Sediment transport study; Solent CHaMP; Aerial photography provided by Channel Coastal Observatory; Historic aerial photography; Beach profile data provided by Channel Coastal Observatory; Historical Ordnance Survey Mapping. Royal Haskoning (2004) sMU 11 - St Helens Point to Ducie Avenue and sMU 12 Bembridge Harbour (Inner Harbour) PAR. Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Marine Survey (Geophysical) 2006 Titan Surveys Details of the above documents are presented within the Reference section of this report.
This Report makes best use of available data to identify any data gaps that require further information to assist in the understanding of past and contemporary natural processes. This knowledge is then used to provide better understanding on future shoreline evolutionary trends. Central to the report is an understanding of the contemporary situation of the river/harbour system and the rate at which it is currently adjusting to both the natural and anthropogenic driving forces. The information collated attempts to produce a general understanding of landform change.
2.1.2
Accuracy of Data
Bringing together data and reports from a variety of sources, over long time periods can lead to an accumulation of inaccuracies. Where possible, these conflicting accounts have been verified with new data such as the recent aerial photography and new hydrographic data. From this, an attempt has been made to establish the history of the estuary and harbour based on current understanding. Aerial photography, for example, has a quantifiable error, with the possibility of checking the errors against modern day benchmarks. As part of the Isle of Wight Coastal Simulator Study (Atkins 2005) undertaken for the IWCCE, error checks were made on the aerial photos. These checks suggested a maximum error of 20m (in plan) for historic photos from 1945 on an island wide strategic scale. For aerial photos from 1988 onwards, this error was reduced to a maximum of 5m, as the aerial photos were of better resolution and had fewer distortions.
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Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report Beach survey data provided may have vertical errors of the order of +/- 0.015m dependant on the level of accuracy used for the survey and photogrammetry such as the Agency ABMS data may have vertical errors of the order of +/- 0.2m. Definition and measurement of coastline retreat is dependant on selecting an appropriate landform or feature to assess the relative change over time. In this case, MHWS was selected as plan-form change can be assessed from aerial photography alone. A more descriptive form of understanding general beach change is used by the South Coast Regional Monitoring Programme (see Appendix A), though their approach has not been possible to apply here due to data restrictions (see Section 2.1.4). Errors in selection of MHWS position have been reduced by Atkins by using trained geomorphologists who are familiar with the feature characteristics.
2.1.3
Previous studies considering geomorphology

A detailed study by RACER (2004) investigated the transport processes taking place along the North East coast of the Isle of Wight. This work shows a summary map with indicative arrows showing directions of sediment motion. The sediment circulation patterns along the three principal estuaries (Kings Quay, Wootton Creek and Bembridge Harbour or Eastern Yar on the North East coast are similar, with interruption of the predominant shoreline drift direction occurring due to tidal exchange at the estuary mouth (inlet) estuary and a drift recirculation on the opposing spit. This movement suggests that the estuaries are analogous in the generic morphological features present, though differing in size, shape and the extent of anthropogenic alterations. This means that the Eastern Yar is considerably more exposed to wave action and has experienced a higher degree of sedimentation and infilling both within its valley and immediately seaward of the inlet. The shoreline between Bembridge Foreland and Nettlestone Point is dominated by a net north-westward drift of sand and flint shingle. This has been estimated to amount to around 14,000m3a-1 along the beach at Bembridge Point and a possible maximum drift of 80,000m3a-1 of sand along the nearshore bed seaward of the estuary inlet. These quantities relate to potential transport calculated by wave power modelling and assume that sufficient sediment is always available (Posford Duvivier, 2000). A modest input of sediment into the estuary is also estimated.
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Figure 2.1 - Proposed sediment movement in the Eastern Solent (After RACER, 2004)
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More recently, Royal Haskoning (2004) produced a PAR for Shoreline Management Units (SMUs) 11 and 12 which are located on the North East Coast of the Isle of Wight. SMU 11 encompasses St Helens Point to Ducie Avenue, while SMU 12 represents Bembridge Harbour (Inner Harbour). That work did not derive a clear final conclusion with regard to a preferred coastal defence option, though did conclude the following aspects:
The current defences are inadequate to prevent erosion on this frontage for the next 100 years. It is estimated that the defences in SMUs 11 will fail in the next 5 years. Further studies are recommended before a strategy for coastal defences can be established.
2.1.4
Data Gaps
Data gaps have been identified in previous reports (Royal Haskoning 2004, Atkins 2003). These comprise mainly of a lack of quantifiable data for assessing sediment budgets (notably sediment source quantifications, sediment fluxes and stores of sediment), and with regard to understanding some of the coastal process links between the harbour and coastal zone. A key issue here is the lack of temporal beach profile data at the location which is required to enable further analysis on shoreline trends to be undertaken. In addition, there is a complete lack of data relating to the dynamics of fine (suspended) sediments around the estuary. Finally, gaps are also observed in mapping from the 1500s to 1700s. Linked to this, the reliability of historic mapping is obviously more uncertain when applying it within contemporary quantitative studies to predict future natural shoreline change.
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2.2
Aerial Photography Assessment

Aerial photographs were used to analyse historic coastal zone change. This has utilised records held by IWCCE dating back to a first flight in 1946 and provides a useful record to assess relative coastal position. This study has used data collected originally for an IWCCE study that covered the whole of the coastal Isle of Wight (Atkins, 2005). It has now been updated with more recent aerial photographs using a GIS system. Aerial photography epochs analysed here include 1946, 1988, 2001 and 2005. Understanding coastal evolution prior to 1946 (earliest aerial photography records) has been achieved through analysing historical maps and adding line vector data to the GIS system, thus allowing a longer time history to be assessed. One key consideration is how the coastline is defined within old maps. Often the coastline position is defined by the surveyor who drew the original maps. The concern with this is that this position may not be the same as the MHWS level assessed in the aerial photography. In the case of the Eastern Yar, however, the magnitude of change over the time periods is greater than any error derived as a result of survey selection or survey inaccuracy. Results of the original analyses are available in the report for the IWCCE (Atkins 2005), and the recent update is presented within the descriptions of change in Section 4.3.
X X
2.3
Beach Profile Data Assessment

Beach profile data consisting of photogrammetric mapping has been collected for a series of years. These are mostly positioned in front of the Duver as part of the ABMS survey conducted by the Environment Agency. Recently a Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme has been initiated by the Southeast Regional Coastal Group. This has undertaken beach profiles on a bi-annual basis, however, the temporal extent of this data set is limited. Due to the inherent inaccuracies in the ABMS data it has been proposed that long term monitoring uses the methods employed by the Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme for monitoring (Channel Coastal Observatory, 2004). Data for this section of coast can be seen in Appendix A in conjunction with explanatory notes.
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3.1
Coastal Evolution - Yar Estuary and Harbour

Holocene Development
The Eastern Yar was originally a tributary to the Ancient Solent Estuarine systemError! Reference source not found.. The development of what is now the harbour and coastal system has been a complex interaction of fluvial, estuarine and coastal processes. Rising sea-levels during the Holocene initially flooded the English Channel before inundating the Solent and then the Eastern Yar once levels had approached those of the present day.
Figure 3.1 Hypothetical reconstruction of the Ancient Solent River System at the beginning of the Holocene (approximately 12,000 years BP) (After Allen and Gibbard 1993, Velegrakis, 2000)
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Though development of the ancient Solent estuarine system started as far back as 8500 years BP (RACER, 2004) when sea levels were up to 18m below present day, it is thought that significant marine inundation of the area around Bembridge did not occur until some 35,000 years before present. During the Mid to Late Holocene, the boundary between the river and the sea originally developed as an onshore migrating bar or spit comprised of coarse material. Due to lower sea levels, the bars location is more likely to be offshore from the present day coast by some 2-3km. The positioning of the Nab Shoal and the New Grounds shown on Admiralty Charts may suggest the location of this previous estuary position. As sea levels rose, the spit transgressed and generally kept pace with coastal position change, arriving near to its present location as an estuary bar. This follows the theory of estuarine development proposed by Dalrymple et al (1992) where estuaries respond to a rise in sea level through shoreward transgression controlled by the topography of coastal plains and valleys.
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Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report During this period, evidence from peat deposits in the area around Fawley and Hythe in Southampton water suggest that sea level underwent a series of transgressions and regressions, leading to inundation of the Solent and Southampton Water by 6,300 years BP (West 1980). Other sites within the Solent demonstrate that transgressive barrier beaches existed at times of lower sea level (RACER, 2004), but these now occur as submerged relic features, such as Horse Sand at Portsmouth with their present day counterparts forming the substantial shingle beaches along Bracklesham Bay, Hayling Bay and Southsea/Eastney. It is possible that the reason for roll back was due to the underlying pressure of rising sealevel coupled with variations in sediment supply with episodic breaches triggered by storm events as proposed by RACER, (2004) within the Quaternary History of the Solent section of the SCOPAC Sediment Transport Study. Although the work by RACER (2004) comprises a comprehensive review of existing knowledge of the Quaternary and Holocene evolution of the Solent, very little evidence is available specifically for the Eastern Yar. It would appear that this was inundated as a tributary estuary to the Solent relatively late in the history of that feature, but information is scarce. With little obvious direct evidence of change available between circa 5,000 years ago to the late 1500s, other methods of estimating behaviour can be considered. Taking Kings Quay as a possible analogue of Bembridge Harbour evolution, the processes of retreat that have taken place there (30-50m since 1972, RACER, 2004) could possibly be applied to Bembridge, although there are considerable differences of scale and wave exposure. Similarly, proposed sediment transport pathways (RACER, 2004) suggest that at each tidal inlet along the NE Wight Coast there are comparable patterns of circulation occurring; with narrow inlet entrances of generating strong tidal currents that can intercept shoreline drift and deposit deltas of sediment create small scale re-circulation or drift reversal. Assuming that similar processes have been occurring but at locations further offshore during lower sea level, it is possible to suggest that the height of the spits at all locations are keeping pace with sea level rise, either through roll back or through sediment supply in sufficient quantities. There are some significant differences between this simple model and what is seen at Bembridge itself. These include the size of the tidal prism; the evolution of dune systems on both spits; the presence of a large ebb tidal delta offshore of the entrance and anthropogenic influences. These factors are likely to alter the development of the estuary and perhaps lead to slower regression of the land over the period. A possible alternative analogue would be East Head Spit at the entrance to Chichester Harbour. This feature has rotated and migrated landward by several hundred metres into the harbour thinning considerably and suffering over-washing at its neck in autumn 2004. Only management actions prevented a breach. In this case the behaviour is explained mainly by coastal protection and interception of sediment supply updrift causing starvation of the spit over the past 150 years (RACER 2004). It included rapid initial retreat at around 10ma-1 between 1842-1898, more steady retreat at 3-4ma-1 from 1898-1960 followed by relative stability and then and a more rapid retreat of 15m from 2000 to 2004 leading to over-washing and potential breaching. The harbour situation is larger in scale than the Eastern Yar, but the spit is smaller in volume than the Duver, especially along its neck. For these reasons the response observed is probably more dynamic or extreme than might be expected for the Duver. A key factor of the geomorphological system development of the Eastern Yar estuary has been the large ebb tidal delta offshore of the harbour. Studies have suggested that the distinct inter-tidal shingle and sand foreshores may initially be the product of interception of drift by the inlet followed by strong flushing offshore by dominant ebb tidal currents. The delta would have formed at the point at which the inlet generated ebb currents dispersed seaward and lost power becoming counteracted by typically onshore wave-driven currents.
Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report Sediment deposition in the form of a delta would occur where the ebb currents lost the power necessary to maintain the offshore transport of particular sediment size grades. Thus, one would expect the landward delta zones to be shingle dominated, grading seaward into a finer more sandy outer zone. It is likely that this deposition would have effectively infilled any incised channel of the Eastern Yar that might have existed across the floor of the current East Solent (not mapped), Indeed such deposits have been the focus of aggregate dredging activities over at least the past 5years (RACER, 2004). The delta thus depends for its maintenance upon continued ebb tidal flushing at the inlet driven by the estuary tidal prism and also upon continued sediment supply by littoral drift into the inlet channel. Variations in either factor would be likely to influence the size of the ebb tidal delta which functions to dissipate incoming wave energy offering a degree of protection to the estuary entrance and its spite. The importance of this delta system should therefore be considered as inherent to the continued development of the estuary system. The low lying land between Sandown and Yaverland has had some importance in the early development of the harbour due to the open entrance it provides to the sea. Little is known or understood about this area. Some theories suggest that during the early part of the Holocene this was a tributary to the Yar. Other theories imply it was a second outflow of the Yar from upstream of Alverstone discharging into the outer reaches of the Solent Estuarine system. This tributary has been truncated by the marine erosion of Sandown Bay and the valley itself has been sealed by a barrier beach that has extended across the low-lying floor. This barrier is now occupied by the Yaverland sea wall and the B3395.
3.2
3.2.1
Contemporary Coastal Hydrodynamics Description

Tidal Currents
Tidal currents are less rapid in the Eastern Solent compared to the Western Solent, generally of the order of 1ms-1 so only sediments up to the grade of medium sand are regularly mobile in the offshore zone (RACER 2004). Tidal currents within the harbour entrance channel are estimated to be in the range 2.5 - 4 ms-1, though further investigation is required to confirm this figure.
P P P P
Around the north east coast of the Isle of Wight, the tidal range increases progressively northwards. At Bembridge Harbour, the spring tidal range is 3.4m, increasing to 2.5m at Ryde and 3.4m at Wootton Haven (Posford Duvivier, 2002). Spring maximum tidal current velocities range from around 0.8 to 3.5msec-1 in the inshore environment and at the main harbour entrances (Posford Duvivier, 2002). They are highest adjacent to the BembridgeSeaview coastline and decline westwards. Velocities in the East Solent are lower, generally less than 0.8msec-1 (Posford Duvivier, 2002). The tidal range estimated from the Admiralty Tide Tables (UKHO, 2006) at Bembridge Harbour is displayed in the tide bar below.
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Figure 3.2: Tide Bar for Bembridge Harbour (Admiralty Tide Tables, 2006)
T T T T T
Tide Bar for Bembridge Harbour

HAT MHWS MHWN MTL MLWN MLWS LAT +3.6 +3.2 +2.4 +1.63 +0.6 -0.2 -0.8
CD
+2.26 +1.86 +1.06 +0.29 -0.74 -1.54 -2.14

OD
Tidal hydraulics are complex, resulting from the prolonged high water stand characteristics of the Solent. The ebb stage is of shorter duration than the flood, generating maximum current velocities. This asymmetric tidal regime is accentuated at the narrow entrances of both Bembridge Harbour and Wootton Creek. Surface current residual vectors are directed to the south and south west, south of Bembridge Point, and north and northwest beyond St Helens Point (Posford Duvivier, 2002). In both cases, they run approximately parallel to the coastline. Residual current speeds are below 0.50msec-1, indicating limited potential for suspended sediment transport outside the wave breaker zone. However, in places, peak ebb stream velocities are capable of moving silt and sand as illustrated by the delta complex of outer Bembridge Harbour and the absence of sediment accumulation in the post 1989 dredged approach channel at Wootton Haven (Posford Duvivier, 2002). Tidally induced sediment movement is therefore likely to be away from the coastline, into and eastwards of the east Solent/Hayling Bay.
P P
3.2.2
Wave Climate
The wave climate of the coastline around Bembridge Harbour has not been studied in great detail and historically, there has been no specific quantitative data recorded on wave heights, tidal current velocities or water levels. A study of the East Solent (HR Wallingford, 1995), which used HINDWAVE and TELURAY models has provided information on predicting inshore wave conditions at Ryde and Wootton Haven north of the study area. The model does not, however, take full account of the wave refraction and diffraction resulting from offshore/near shore bathymetry and the operation of tidal currents.
3.2.2.1
Wave Height
Wave heights calculated as part of the SMP suggest wave heights offshore of St Helens to be 3.8m for the 1 in 50 year event with limited data available for other return period events that include new extreme sea level data. Simple calculations of depth limited waves
Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report undertaken as part of the Scoping Study (Atkins 2003), suggested maximum wave heights of 1.1m would be experienced at the Duver sea wall due to dissipation over the ebb delta.
3.2.2.2 Wave Direction
The waves are sourced from the following three directions (Posford Duvivier, 2002): i. The eastern Atlantic Ocean and western/central English Channel. Swell waves generated by westerly and south-westerly winds suffer some attenuation as a result of shallow water, and complex refraction/diffraction effects induced by the presence of the Isle of Wight as they propagate into Hayling Bay and the eastern Solent. The eastern English Channel, which provides sufficient fetch to generate relatively high-energy waves under sustained periods of easterly winds. The Solent, providing very limited fetch distance, particularly from the North West, for the generation of waves of small to modest height and energy under most prevalent wind directions.
ii.
iii.
Waves from these three main sources interact and superimpose with one another, although waves approaching from an easterly direction are relatively rare and are normally associated with specific synoptic weather conditions in late winter (Posford Duvivier, 2002). The east-facing coastline (Seaview to Culver Cliff) is more exposed to waves of greater height and energy than the protected Solent frontage of the north coast. Storm surge conditions are usually caused as a result of intense cyclonic systems tracking eastwards, i.e. up the English Channel. Surges from the North Sea do penetrate through the Straits of Dover, but their amplitudes are small once they reach the sea area east of the Isle of Wight. Such conditions generate extreme water levels when they combine with maximum tidal levels, and extreme wave heights (Posford Duvivier, 2002). Inshore breaking wave heights are affected throughout the area by the sea bed bathymetry and by refraction/diffraction around headlands (Posford Duvivier, 2002). The combination of both of these wave modifying factors is spatially varied, e.g. Hydraulics Research (1983) calculated that inshore wave height at the seaward entrance to the navigation channel of Bembridge Harbour are approximately 23% less than those offshore. However, incident waves in Priory Bay exceed the height of waves immediately offshore by 7%.
3.2.2.3 Extreme Sea Levels
Extreme sea levels predicted for 2060 have been taken from the Extreme Sea Level Analyses Kent, Sussex and Hampshire (JBA, 2004) report commissioned by the Environment Agency. These future sea level estimates incorporate a rate of sea level rise of 6mm/year. The table below shows these estimations: Table 3-1: Extreme Sea Levels (JBA, 2004)
T T T T T T
Extreme Sea Levels (m AODN) Year 2000 Year 2060
Tidal Return Period (years) 1 2.6 2.9 2 2.7 3.0 5 2.8 3.1 10 2.9 3.2 20 2.9 3.3 25 3.0 3.3 50 3.1 3.4 75 3.1 3.5 100 3.1 3.5 150 3.2 3.5 200 3.2 3.6 250 3.2 3.6 500 3.3 3.7 1000 3.4 3.8
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3.2.2.4
Significant Wave Height The following representative significant wave heights (Hs) for Bembridge Harbour are taken from Posford Duvivier (2002): a) Bembridge Harbour entrance: 1.85m (north or north-westerly fetch); 1.93m (north-easterly fetch); 3.75m (easterly fetch); 3.83m (east-south-easterly fetch). Recent significant wave height data from the Channel Coast Observatory is illustrated in the wave roses below (taken from wave bouy data see Figure 3-3). The data has been taken from two buoys situated offshore of Hayling Island and Sandown Bay (Figure 3-4) and shows that calm conditions (Hs<1.0m) prevail for the majority of the time. The results show that significant wave heights of between 3.05.0m approach Hayling Island from a south-westerly to south-easterly fetch. The majority are from a south and south-southeasterly fetch. Significant wave heights of between 2.0-3.0m approach Sandown Bay from between a south and east fetch; the majority being sourced from a south-south-east and south-easterly direction.
Figure 3.3: Location of Wave Buoys (www.channelcoast.org)

T T T T T
The following wave and current conditions (ADCP measurements) have been determined from the recent oceanographic survey carried out in July 2006 by Titan Environmental Surveys Ltd. Titan surveyed a range of wave and current parameters at two locations at Bembridge Harbour. The results in the table below are taken from site 1 situated at the Bembridge harbour entrance (<2m water depth at spring low water periods). Table 3-2: Summary of Current and Wave Conditions (Titan, 2006)
T T T T T T T
Current Speed (m/s) Maximum Minimum Average 0.83 0.00 0.21
Current Direction (degrees) 359.76 0.00 130.79
Significant Wave Height (m) 0.09 0.00 0.01
Mean Wave Period (secs) 29.43 3.92 11.24
Mean Wave Direction (degrees) 359.59 0.26 191.52
Tidal Height (mAODN) 0.83 0.00 0.35
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Figure 3.4: Wave Rose Plots for Hayling Island and Sandown Bay (www.channelcoast.org)
3.2.2.5 Extreme Wave Height Extreme wave heights from a variety of sources have also been taken from Posford Duvivier (2002):
Table 3-3: Extreme Wave Heights

T T
Wootton Haven
Ryde Offshore St Helens Fort Bembridge Harbour outer entrance Nab Tower Whitecliff Bay Coastal Geomorphology.doc
1.52m, return period of 50 years (Posford Duvivier, 1994) 1.57m, return period of 100 years (Posford Duvivier, 1994) 1.60m, return period of 100 years (Hydraulics Research, 1988) 1.90-2.10m, return period of 50 years (Gifford and Partners, 1990) 1.80m, return period of 50 years (Hydraulics Research, 1988) 1.71m, return period of 50 years (HR Wallingford, 1995) 3.80m, return period of 50 years (Posford Duvivier, 1991) 2.90m, return period of 50 years (Posford Duvivier, 1991) 5.70m, return period of 50 years (HR Wallingford, 1992) 4.00m, return period of 50 years (HR Wallingford, 1992) 2.95m, return period of 50 years (no source given) Page 12 Final Report
3.3
Contemporary Landform Description

Bembridge Harbour in its present day state is a 1.5 -3 m tidal range estuary occupying a portion of the lower Eastern Yar valley, with a narrow entrance draining the inner zone into the adjacent coastal region. The complex interaction between this estuarine outflow, the prevalent coastal processes and the man made structures maintains the narrow approach channel to the entrance. The entrance itself is formed from the convergence of a spit and a relic dune feature (St Helens Duver), consisting of sediments ranging from fine sands to gravel in size. The present day key issues in the coastal zone can be attributed to the sea defences in place along the St Helens Duver and the Bembridge spit, and the extensive history of anthropogenic intervention, including large-scale estuary reclamation.
3.4
Historic Human Intervention

As with many coastal and estuarial systems, the Eastern Yar has been heavily impacted by anthropogenic changes, both through direct intervention and by indirect forcing. Any morphological system will subsequently react to changes in an attempt to attain an equilibrium state of stability. As such these changes affect the large scale morphodynamics, the hydrodynamics and the sedimentology of the system. The Eastern Yar, and Brading Marshes in particular, have been subjected to reclamation and diversion since at least the fourteenth century. Early attempts at land reclamation in the Yar valley began in the 1300`s with small areas to the South of Yar Bridge and up towards the tidal limit near Alverstone being taken. In the 1500`s, the port of Brading was declining and many ports in the region were looking to reclaim the mudflats from the sea to create pasture that was worth considerably more to the owners. Areas downstream of Brading were being reclaimed, such as the area of North Marsh which is now the site of the golf course development. In the 1590s there was a larger project that created the present day ancient embankment within which the Great and Little sluices and the North Marsh area are situated. This left more land near Brading that could be used for pasture. In doing so, this significantly reduced the tidal prism of the estuary. By the early 1500`s the estuary mouth may have looked similar to today with a sand and shingle bar/spit though including a large meandering river that was tidally dominated back beyond Brading Haven and the Yar Bridge. Reports (e.g. Martin, 1999), historic maps and parish boundaries, suggest that the location of the mouth was actually on the St Helens side of the estuary with Bembridge Point being the dominant spit. This evidence has, to date, not been corroborated though as part of the main Strategy study, marine investigations are anticipated to provide indications of historic entrance channel positions.
1590 map of Bembridge Harbour

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1611 map of Bembridge Harbour
1790 map of Bembridge Harbour showing Parish boundary
Figure 3.5: Historical maps of Bembridge Harbour

One of the most ambitious reclamation schemes was undertaken in the 1620`s which bridged the gap across the entrance to the harbour at what is now the St Helens Duver. This reclamation effectively cut off the rest of the harbour for 8 years after completion until there was a collapse at the eastern end of the embankment due to combined influence of high fluvial flows and a high spring tide. This embankment was said to have run from St Helens church across to Bembridge, though the exact location is unknown.
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The latest and most lasting construction across the estuary occurred with the placement of an embankment for the railway line in 1878. This structure included the original sluice at St Helens and effectively reduced the estuary in size by some 80%. Shortly after the railway embankment was built, the Embankment Road was constructed in 1898, reducing further the size of the harbour by advancing the line of defence. The original railway embankment of 1878 had already reduced the tidal prism considerably with the only apparent alterations visible from the historic maps being the movement of the main tidal channel to an increasingly shore parallel location at the Duver and the growth of the Bembridge Spit. The possible reason for this change is the reduction in the flushing ability of the estuary, which in turn would lead to longshore transport becoming the dominant control on the channel location. This was becoming a problem due to the breakwater construction which was constructed to control the movement of sand into and across the channel. At the time of the railway embankment construction, the bar consisting of sand and bed rock that ran across the tidal entrance channel east of the Old St Helens church was blasted and the material used in the construction of the embankment (De Boulay, 1911). This led to a drop in the sill by 0.6m which in turn led to the ebb tide rushing out so fast that; no boat could stem it if wishing to enter from the sea, and as the rocky Bar was some two feet higher than it is now, it offered more obstruction to vessels of deep draught DeBoulay 1911, P186 The effect of this on geomorphological processes is likely to have been considerable, as the ebb dominant nature of the estuary would have been enhanced. Since the construction of the railway embankment there has been a history of maintenance dredging to preserve a channel for vessels. The source of this material has been suggested as being both fluvial and coastal in origin depending on the reporting, with the observations by Bembridge Harbour Board suggesting a considerable input of riverine muds to the harbour due to their presence on the intertidal sandbanks. Today, dredging also takes place on the ebb tidal delta at spring low water by HJ Bennet of Bembridge, using excavators and trucks. The quantity of material removed, from visual observation of activities, is large suggesting that at present there is apparently plentiful supply of sediment to this stretch of coast. The SMP suggests that sediment supply may come from Sandown and Whitecliff Bays, with the latters input directly from soft cliff erosion. Offshore input may also be adding to the contribution though no clear link between the inshore transport pathways and those offshore have been identified (RACER, 2004). The most recent significant change to the river system was on 14 July 1995 when the new Bembridge Sluice, located through the embankment was completed. This structure replaced the one installed during the original embankment construction in the late 1800s which had been leaking for some time.
3.5
Morphological response to Human intervention

The reclamations of the 1500s at Brading Haven would have led to a reduction in the tidal prism by approximately 20%. This is likely to have affected the stability of mudflats in the harbour and potentially altered the system of meandering tidal channels and size of the flood tidal delta. It is proposed that this would have little impact upon the entrance channel position at this time as early maps suggest that the position on the northwestern side of the Duver was relatively stable. It could, however, have affected the ebb tidal flow, and the dimensions of the inlet. The cause of this stability is due to the dynamic equilibrium that would have been achieved between tidal exchange, the relatively hard geology of the St Helens hill and the dominant longshore drift to the North West. During the early reclamation attempts at the harbour mouth during the 1600s, little mention is made of hydrodynamic exchange (water coming out of the river), except for a sluice in the embankment. Currently it is not clear as to the location of this structure. If the position of the entrance was on the North Western side it is likely that the sluice was at the St Helens end of the embankment.
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The eventual failure of this embankment was at the Eastern end in 1630. It is unclear whether this was under a storm condition as no mention is made in the account of it by Sir John Oglander from the time (Oglander, 1936). Large storms capable of rearranging shingle barriers were supposed to have occurred in the Solent region at periods from 1500-1430 AD (RACER, 2004) though no dates have been inferred after this. Work by Wallace and Tubbs referred in the RACER (2004) report have inferred sea-level excursions from barrier breakdown and landward migration over the past 1200 years. Direct interpretation of th results suggested that sea levels could have been up to 1m higher than at present in the late 11 to th 15 Centuries, which could have added to the ability for the sea to overwhelm the defences. It should be noted that barriers do not always offer reliable interpretations of modest changes in sea-level because breaching episodes are likely to be affected by variations in sediment supply and occurrences of high storm surges rather than being driven solely by sea-level.
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Other writings of the time (Martin 1999) suggested that a more human impact had caused the failure of the embankment as it was suggested that locals had been removing sand and rock from the embankment to repair nearby roads. Even at this time there is mention of tide locking and problems of sediment build up in front of the sluice causing problems with the effective operation; The greate inconvenionce wase, in itt ye seae browght so mutch sand and ooaze and seaeweed that choaked up the passage of ye fresch to go owt; insomutch that I am of opynion that if ye seae had not broake in, Sir Bevis coold hardlie haue kept itt; for ther woold haue been no current for the fresch to go owt; for ye easterne tydes browght so mutch sand that ye fresch wase not of fforce to drive itt awaie, so that in tyme itt woold have lain to ye seae, or else ye fresch woold haue drowned ye whoole countery. Martin, 1999 With the first accurate maps of the area (1866 Ordnance Survey Six Inch to One Mile maps and the subsequent 1898 editions), the effect that the railway embankment had on the estuary becomes noticeable. The 1866 maps show a large high water entrance to the harbour (though a narrow low water entrance very similar to the current situation) with the Duver and Bembridge spit appearing fairly sediment deficient. The 1898 map shows the closure of the estuary causing a sharp reduction in tidal prism and the subsequent changes. The key observation is the rapid movement of the ebb tidal delta to the northwest and the considerable reduction in its volume, which is likely to be linked to the rapid change in tidal prism associated with the construction of the railway embankment. Combined with this is a shift of the main tidal channel also to the north west and the presence of a small low water channel running from St Helens church into the main channel, which may be indicative of the historic channel location. It can be inferred that as the tidal prism reduced the power of the ebb tidal currents diminished so that they became unable to transport sediment so far seaward such that the historic ebb delta could no longer be maintained. Consequently, it is thought that waves then pushed the sediment of the now relic delta landward causing shoaling immediately seaward of the inlet and seaward of Bembridge Point. Thus, the supply from offshore noted earlier could simply be a redistribution of the existing ebb tidal delta material. If this is true then dredging/mining activities in this vicinity could be removing a finite resource rather than harvesting a renewable one. This interpretation is supported by the work of Walton and Adams (1976) in the USA who found that the volume of material stored in ebb tidal deltas is linked closely to the tidal prism of the inlet associated. The mapping also shows that the main body of the Duver was stable over this period, principally due to the construction of the first sea defences in the late 1800s though there is some limited reorientation of the tip and accretion towards the base between 1866 and 1898. It is not clear whether this was directly associated with the construction of the railway embankment as no direct morphological link exists, though it is potentially impacted by the changes that were observed to the ebb tidal delta. A major change is apparent in the extension of the Bembridge Spit over the 43 year period. With the dominant transport on this side of the estuary in a north-westerly direction, longshore drift is likely to have been attempting to infill and modify the position of the entrance channel. With the reduction of the tidal prism this effect would have been exacerbated by onshore movement of sediment from the ebb delta, leading to the construction of the first Bembridge spit terminal groyne. This then led to rapid build up of material on the spit and the considerable growth in length and width, with subsequent stabilisation thorough vegetation. Coastal Geomorphology.doc Page 15 Final Report
Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report Figure 3.6: Composite map showing 2005 aerial photo with 1866, 1898 and 1909 coast and low water features
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1866 coastline 1898 coastline 1909 coastline 1866 low water features 1898 low water features 1909 low water features
Inside the harbour there is an apparent increase in sedimentation with the narrowing of the deeper water area immediately inside the entrance. This has been achieved through extension and translation of the flood tidal delta in a south easterly direction. In summary, the historical evolution of the inlet is still not certain, especially the point at which it switched from being adjacent to St Helens to being adjacent to Bembridge. This also applies to the appearance of the Duver on OS mapping whereas previously it had been absent. This part of the historical understanding needs to be better documented and explained in terms of growth of the Duver, the closure of St Helens inlet and the subsequent reduced tidal prism of the estuary followed by the apparent uncertainty over the rate at which onshore migration of sediment from the ebb delta took place.
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4
4.1
Coastal Behavioural Response Model

Approach to Model Development
To better communicate the findings presented in Sections 2 and 3, and to assist in understanding the past development of the harbour, a conceptual coastal model has been developed. The basis for this comes from recent estuarine research undertaken by Defra (EMPHASYS 2002), which suggested the general format consisting of key processes, throughputs and stores of the geomorphological components of interest. Additional material derived from the Defra Futurecoast project (Halcrow 2002) and Solent CHaMP (Bray and Cottle, 2003) has also been incorporated. The latest regionally adjusted estimates of sea-level rise have been produced by UKCIP (2005) suggesting for south east England a rise of 17cm (low emissions scenario) or 77cm (high emissions scenario) by the 2080s (based on comparison with a 1961-90 baseline). The Environment Agency have also recently (2006) produced indicative rate changes for 2020s, 2050s, 2080s and 2100s and with regional differences. By 2100 for example, the Agency have stated that councils might see an increase in sea level rise equivalent to 11mm per annum. For EA Southern Region, a conservative 6mm/yr is still proposed, though extreme values should be reviewed if higher extreme values are supported by further modeling results. Local studies, for example. have identified that the extreme sea-levels may increase by more than these values due to alteration of storm surges and tidal ranges (Halcrow et al 2001).
4.2
Overview of Conceptual Sediment Budget

During times of lower sea level (late Holocene) the ebb tidal delta that formed at Bembridge would have influenced the local sediment budget (input, throughput and output), acting as both a sediment sediment store for material plus throughput into the wider eastern Solent. The sediment budget would have varied as sea levels fluctuated through this period. This is likely to account for the occurrence of large sediment volumes making up both the Duver and the ebb tidal delta in later periods. Sediment Input
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Sediment input (supply) of north-westerly drift material would primarily have been from cliffs and intertidal platforms along the South East coast of the Isle of Wight. An additional input would have been the transport of fluvial terrace material from the banks of the ancient Solent estuarine system eroded and swept landward during rising sea-levels of the past 12,000 years or so. Fluvial input occurs at the head of the estuary system. This provides freshwater to the harbour which could influence flushing magnitudes through its entrance (significant mainly during high magnitude discharge events only because regular discharge is a small proportion of tidal exchange). The effect of the river/harbour boundary being further seaward than the ancient Solent estuarine system would be to increase the catchment area, with a subsequent increase in the volume of freshwater throughput. Sediment Throughput
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From these sediment inputs sources, wind and waves would have dominated littoral transport patterns in both a shoreward direction and in a north-westerly direction. Wave action during storms within the intertidal area would have re-suspended finer material. Larger sand sized particles would have been moved either through saltation (if conditions were aggressive enough) or as bedload under combined wave/current interaction. It is anticipated that these processes would be a minimum of an order of magnitude greater than present day processes, due to the supposed higher energies involved and a greater sediment availability. As an intertidal sand/gravel flat, during low water periods, sand would have been blown either into the water column to be re-deposited under the predominant flow pattern at that time or transported landward by aeolian processes. At this time, there would have been limited interruption of this process as only natural barriers/landforms would have existed to restrict wind transported sediments. Coastal Geomorphology.doc Page 17 Final Report
Sediment Stores (sinks)
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The second largest store (or reservoir) of sediment would have been within the embryonic spits/barrier associated with the Eastern Yar estuary itself. This is likely to have existed as a single spit or barrier across the entrance. The position of the harbour outlet (and hence the site of the formation of the barrier) is conjecture. Much of the evidence including the process of sea level transgression and development of the Solent Estuarine system suggests transport in a northerly direction, hence any barrier formation is likely to commence from the Bembridge side and progress in a northerly direction. Complicating this theory is the fact that fluctuations in sea level and sediment supply over this period could have led to large variations in the relative position of the shingle barrier across this part of the Eastern Solent. It may even have led its breaching and/or destruction as sea levels regressed and transgressed only to be reformed from the dispersed material at a later time. This also suggests that the relative position of the entrance may have changed several times. Behind this barrier, protection would have been afforded to the developing estuary enabling mudflat sedimentation and in particular the flood tidal delta formation. This is likely to have been larger and more active than the present day feature due to anticipated changes in the tidal regime. The principal forcing agent behind tidal characteristics and formations is unlikely to have altered much over the period of the Holocene. It is possible that there may have been some change to the higher tidal harmonics that are related to tidal propagation up the English Channel. This subsequently may cause a skewed tidal curve around this part of the Isle of Wight. In contemporary terms, this leads to the ebb dominant nature of the estuaries, which is also typical throughout the Solent. Ebb dominance is important in estuarine evolution and explains why the estuaries of the Solent have remained open whereas those of East Sussex and Kent have become almost completely infilled with sediment. It is understood that within the estuary, the flood tidal delta acts as a key sediment store. During storms, re-suspension of sediment would occur and lead to transport into the mudflats. This process would in turn contribute to saltmarsh development through tidal inundation and sea level rise.
4.3
Assessment of morphological change from aerial photos

Within the original study for the Isle of Wight Centre for the Coastal Environment (Atkins, 2005) errors were observed within the 1946 photographs. In this study the relative position of these has been amended to reduce the errors to a maximum of 10m in plan. The position of these coastlines is shown in Figure 4.1 below.
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Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report Figure 4.1- Composite map showing 2005 aerial photo with 1946, 1988, 2001 and 2005 coast and low water features (with 1909 channel position superimposed)
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1946 coastline 1988 coastline 2001 coastline 2005 coastline 1946 low water features 1988 low water features 2001 low water features 2005 low water features
1909 position of channel
Figure 4.2 provides quantifiable evidence that the spit has been growing in size and that sediment transport along the Duver has been in the opposite direction to the predominant direction of transport since at least this time. The analysis also shows that the re-curve of the tidal channel has significantly increased since 1909 with progradation of over 200m to the North West occurring.
X X
Figure 4.2 Close up of harbour entrance on the 2005 aerial photograph 1

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FPT
The aerial photos suggest that since 1946 the tip of the Duver has increased in size by approximately 70m, a likely response to the predominant longshore drift to the southeast along this frontage. Partial
1
TP PT
Using same key as figure 4.1 above

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defence failure at this end may also have contributed to its extension, as groynes and sections of the seawall are in disrepair, allowing more material to be transported towards the spit head.
Figure 4.3 Calculated erosion rates (mpa) for 1946-2005 overlain on the 2005 aerial photograph
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Figure 4.3 shows the calculated erosion rates utilising a GIS package called DSAS. These rates are in metres per annum (mpa) and show the maximum accretion at the Duver (2.98 mpa) and the maximum erosion further along the Bembridge shoreline towards the lifeboat station (-0.58mpa). The analysis also showed that along much of the length of the Duver there has been erosion of the shoreline position in front of the seawall (approximately -0.2mpa). Between 1946 and 1988, the Bembridge spit shows a trend of growth (current rate approximately 0.30.6mpa) but then appears to have reduced slightly in size at the MHWS outline, particularly on the entrance channel side. In addition, there has been an increase in littoral beach magnitude movement between MHWS to MLWS so reducing the channel width at this location (demonstrating a shift in orientation towards the northwest). This is possibly associated with continuing reactions to the reduced tidal prism and effects of the longshore drift in diverting the inlet channel north-eastward. This suggests that the outflow speeds and magnitudes of the harbour are currently less effective at clearing the channel of natural sediment accretion. It should also be noted that significant mining of sediment has been undertaken from Bembridge Point and its foreshore so that accretion here would otherwise have been considerably greater. Narrowing of the approach channel may suggest higher velocities with associated increased coarse sediment transport rates and thus sediment loss (output) from the channel. This is not, however, the case. The position of MLWS on the Duver side of the channel indicates limited movement at its narrowest point over the time period. Immediately upstream and downstream of this location, changes have been observed, suggesting a submerged geological control may be affecting this side of the harbour entrance. Aerial photo evidence supports this hypothesis, suggesting a movement to the south east and enlargement of the flood tidal delta within the harbour. This flood tidal feature is evident in the early maps of the harbour, located centrally in the approximate position of the present day Embankment Road. Through the subsequent reclamations of the late 1800s (i.e. creation of the railway line and the Embankment Road), the main portion of this morphological landform feature has become relic. It is probable that due to the weakening of flood tidal currents following reclamation works, if the existing feature was not already there, then the flood tidal delta would be significantly smaller than at present. Coastal Geomorphology.doc Page 2 Final Report
The causes of the move to the southeast are linked to an equilibrium balance between the fluvial baseflow and ebb tidal flow against flood tidal deposition and wave induced storm events. Both would be acting to infill the historic tidal channel that existed running along the southern dogleg of the Embankment Road. As the aerial photos show, this has occurred between the 1988 and 2005 images. There has also been extension of this feature into the main channel to the sluice as evidenced in the 2005 images. This is one of the sinks of sedimentary material that currently requires maintenance dredging to keep the channel clear and evidence from the Bembridge Harbour Master (Atkins, 2003) suggests that the provenance of surficial material is primarily fluvial in origin although this would need to be verified. Figure 4.4 provides a conceptual diagram to explain the historic links between the various features.
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Figure 4.4 Coastal Geomorphology Conceptual model - Historic

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4.4
Assessment of morphological change from beach profile data

Analysis of results suggest that along the northern section of the Duver, the beach is flattening as well as eroding, leading to potential for undermining of the sea wall. The data also supports the anecdotal and morphological evidence of predominant southward longshore drift along the Duver towards the entrance. In addition, the balance of longshore transport along the Duver over the period spring to spring 20032004 was negative leading to a net loss of material from the foreshore. This implies that sediment transport along and offshore from the Duver was greater than the inputs at the St Helens end. This could be linked either to reduction in available material from the offshore north-westerly transport zone, or interruption/reduction of processes bringing material onto the Duver. Despite the above observations, conclusions need to acknowledge that data is limited to only two seasons of monitoring and as such cannot be relied upon for assessment of longer term changes in the beach volumes. As part of the ongoing programme for the SRCMP this data set will be improved upon over time, and as such should be re-analysed.
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4.5
Contemporary Coastal Behavioural Response Model
Figure 4.5 Conceptual model for the present day conditions
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Development of Management Scenarios

It is possible to evaluate the findings from Section 4 to develop a conceptual understanding of potential future changes to the Eastern Yar harbour and coastal zone. This is addressed in relation to a strategic Do Nothing scenario. No detailed consideration has been made on existing coastal defences assets, their residual life expectations or other land use scenario implications. From the coastal landform perspective, the Duver represents a critical landform and its behaviour and evolution will dictate strategic policy options within the Harbour and along Embankment Road. Whilst not considered in detail within this report, the final Strategy shall need to confirm: whether any works are required to the Duver to maintain its position; the scale of the wave activity and over-topping on the Embankment Road. As a consequence whether the Embankment Road needs armour on the front and back faces.
5.1
Geomorphological controlling features

The dominant processes and features in the coastal zone as identified by the conceptual model relevant to the future development are shown in Table 5-1.
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Table 5-1: Dominant processes and features in the coastal zone
COASTAL
Processes Wave action across the ebb tidal delta Dredging
Associated Features Ebb tidal delta
Decreasing magnitude
The Duver and related defences, reduced volume of ebb tidal delta Bembridge Spit and defences St Helens Duver
Ebb tidal transport Southward (reversed) drift along Duver Wind blown transport Processes Flood tidal transport
The Duver Associated Features Flood tidal delta and mudflats. Mudflats in inner estuary, channel sedimentation. Incised tidal channel/ The Duver and the flood tidal delta
ESTUARIAL
Decreasing magnitude
Fluvial sediment input
Dredging Wind blown transport
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5.2
Hypothetical Do Nothing Development

As part of the Scoping Study (Atkins, 2003) a hypothetical Do Nothing scenario was developed which considered all key issues and controls. This work is now updated considering the improved understanding of natural harbour development that has been outlined in this report and the development of the conceptual geomorphological model (Section 4). As part of the Do Nothing scenario, the impacts of human intervention are not considered, for example it is assumed that dredging activities cease along with maintenance/operation of any structures within the zone. Table 5-2: Hypothetical Do Nothing Scenario Present Day Coastal Contemporary wave impacts, reflection and scour at toe of Duver sea wall/revetment; Contemporary levels of surf overtopping of coastal defences; Contemporary growth northward of the Bembridge Spit; Contemporary growth southward of St Helens Duver; Contemporary levels of foreshore lowering at the Duver; Continuing contemporary levels of siltation in the harbour from both coastal and fluvial sources; Increased risk of mechanical/electrical failure of Bembridge Sluice leading to tidal inundation behind the Embankment Road; The Duver will continue to undergo recession at a rate of circa 0.5m to 1mpa leading to the risk of defence undermining at some central-southern sections of the defence and towards the southern tip; Growth of Bembridge spit towards the channel (northwest direction); Possible partial deflection of the tidal inlet channel increased risk of Duver tip erosion; Growth of Bembridge Point may provide shelter to Duver from wave processes; Increased frequency of overtopping experienced at Embankment Road due to sea level rise (SLR); Increased frequency of tidal flooding to low-lying properties around the harbour; Continued sedimentation issues in the harbour, leading to alteration of the intertidal channels. Increased risk of defence failure along entire length of the St Helens Duver (thinning of Duver likely); Retreat of the seaward face of the Duver cutting into the vegetated dunes behind; Dune recession would trigger a rapid southward extension of the Duver (though unlikely to seal the entrance of the Duver); Regular overtopping experienced at Embankment Road due to sea level rise (SLR); Regular tidal flooding to low-lying properties around the harbour; Potential breach and loss of Yaverland defence following tidal inundation from landward and attack from seaward; Increased risk of collapse to embankments at Great and Little Sluice; Realignment of main tidal channel across the Brading Marshes area; Increased size of Bembridge spit, pushing entrance channel towards the northern side of the harbour; Entrance channel migration to more than halfway across the harbour; Increased size of tidal prism generating stronger ebb tidal current and resulting in enlargement of the ebb tidal delta. Page 8 Final Report
10 Years
50 Years
100 Years

Larger tidal prism removing more material from within the harbour, leading to tidal enlargement channel and erosion along its flanks; Duver has thinned to a width of 10-20m and likely breach due to over-washing; Duver breaching could open a new permanent tidal inlet that could become adopted as the main estuary inlet (similar to Pagham Harbour scenario); Erosion risk increased at the St Helens relic coastal slope; Most of Embankment Road either eroded by tidal channels or cut off by tidal waters; Tidal limit at Alverstone.
5.3
5.3.1
St Helens Duver Recession Assessment

Overview
Previous studies (Atkins 2003) have stated that the Duver would breach. This is also reflected in the Royal Haskoning Report (2004) which implies an average retreat rate for Bembridge (up to 2050) as 1m year. More thorough examination of the locality now presents a less imminent (pessimistic) view, though caution should be made on whether a breach will actually occur or not. It is currently believed (through latest monitoring results coupled with additional expertise), that there would appear to be the potential for thinning of the Duver sufficient for a risk of breaching within a minimum 40 year period following complete failure of the Duver defences. This, however, is a moderate worst case scenario and a more realistic scenario could suggest that 100-200 years or more is likely to pass before there was risk of a total breach.
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It is likely that the appearance of the spit shall thin, thus suffering over-washing and landward migration rather than a clean immediate breach and its subsequent destruction and demise. Examples from Kings Quay and East Head suggest that migration and rotation into the estuary are more likely than breaching and complete catastrophic loss of the feature. In a "best case" scenario, increases in estuary tidal prism could result in renewed ebb tidal delta growth that could protect the estuary entrance so that the spits could continue to be maintained even with rising sea levels.
5.3.2
Rate of Recession
The reasons for the possible delayed breach risk are described below. For this simple calculation, it is assumed that the maximum southward drift along St Helen Duver is 3,000m3a-1 . This is likely to be comparable to drift along Bembridge Point.
P P P P
From this, a simple calculation of the dune recession, required to deliver sand to satisfy this output, is made as follows: Dune length = 700m; Height = 4m; Cross section area is 2,800m2. (700x4); Annual rate of recession = 3,000 (drift) /2,800 = 1.07 ma-1
This technique could provide an improved estimate of spit recession if the drift estimate could be refined and the land levels of the Duver where more accurately known. More work is required to help develop further the accuracy of this work.
5.3.3
Strategy Study Considerations

The Strategy needs to confirm:
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Whether any works are required to the Duver to maintain its position (the breach potential as a result of thinning of the Duver is the key issue here); The magnitude of future wave climate change and over-topping frequency pressures this may have on Embankment Road (i.e. will Embankment Road needs armour on the front and back faces?).
Based on the initial calculations presented above, a series of scenario evaluations need to be further assessed within the Strategy. 5.3.3.1 Moderate Worse Case Scenario - Duver breaches from year 40 onwards. The Strategy (Phase 2) should seek to establish the consequence of increased wave attack on the Embankment Road that leads to: Timing of potential Duver thinning and subsequent breach; Increased overtopping and thus re-alignment being viable due to either Embankment Road becoming unsustainable and / or the habitat changes to brackish; Breach of the Embankment Road, as a consequence increased armour is required or implement re-alignment.
5.3.3.2
Best Guess Scenario Duver Thins and Overtops but does not Breach As with all geomorphological assessments, there are a series of uncertainties that are inherently difficult to quantify. Further analysis work (identified in Section 6 of this report) will seek to reduce some uncertainty, though a sensitivity analysis will always have to be applied to the recommendations, particularly when considering predictions over and above 50 year timescales. To be able to derive at as accurate a position as possible with regard to Duver evolution, additional work needs to be tailored that seeks to address the following: Clarification on what the key uncertainties are, are they important and will better understanding of them actually change a management solution in the short, medium or long term. Evaluation of current monitoring programmes to address these uncertainties The uncertainty in temporal planning (i.e. when compensatory habitat should be purchased subsequently supported by the Competent Authority and English Nature).
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6
6.1
Conclusions
Achievement of aim
The aim of this report has been to compile information and data on the known geomorphological processes affecting the Eastern Yar harbour and coastal zone to assist in understanding the background historical development and implications of human intervention. Supporting documentation linked to recent bathymetric surveys carried out (Titan Surveys 2006) has been reviewed in relation to significant wave heights and tidal current movements recorded at the mouth of the harbour. The objective has been to provide the information to understand a future Do Nothing scenario. This has been achieved through the development of the conceptual model to allow testing of the Do Nothing hypothesis. The outcome of the hypothetical Do Nothing assessment suggests that there will be significant geomorphological change to contemporary landform features and controlling processes, including realignment of the spits, long term breaching of the Duver (most likely post 100-200 years) plus the creation of intertidal channels and tidal deltas. There will also be alteration in wave approach on these features and also subsequent hydraulic flows in and out of the harbour. The magnitude of these changes has not been assessed, as much of the data to date has been qualitative or descriptive in nature and therefore prone to subjectivity. The next step is to take this analysis further and provide a detailed assessment of a number of parameters to assist in final definition of the Do Nothing scenario.
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References
1. ALLEN L G and GIBBARD P L (1993) Pleistocene Evolution of the Solent River of Southern England, Quaternary Science Review, 12, 503-528. Atkins Consultants Ltd (2003):Eastern Yar Scoping Study. Atkins Consultants Ltd (2005):Isle of Wight Coastal Simulator. Data and report. BRAY, M. J. and COTTLE, R. (2003) Solent Coastal Habitat Management Plan, Volumes 1 and 2. Report by Posford Haskoning and University of Portsmouth to English Nature and Environment Agency. Volume 1 Summary of Habitat Change 66p. Vol 2 Technical Report 219p. see http://www.englishnature.org.uk/livingwiththesea/CHAMPS/pilots.asp Channel Coastal Observatory, September 2004: Southeast Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme Isle of Wight, Annual Report 2004 DeBoulay, E.( 1911);Bembridge Past and Present. Observer Press, Ryde Halcrow (1997): Isle of Wight Shoreline Management Plan HALCROW MARITIME, UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH and the METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE (2001) Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change. Report to SCOPAC, 110pp. HALCROW, (2002) Futurecoast: research project to improve the understanding of coastal evolution over the next century for the open coastline of England and Wales. Report and CD-ROM produced by Halcrow-led consortium for DEFRA.
2. 3. 4.
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6. 7. 8.
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10. Jeremy Benn Associates (2001) Extreme Sea Level Analyses: Kent, Sussex and Hampshire- Summary Report 11. Oglander, J Sir (1936) ; A royalist's notebook. The commonplace book of Sir J.Oglander Eds. F Bamford, London
T T
12. Posford Duvivier (2000a) Coast Protection at Gurnard. Preliminary Report. Appendix F.1: Review of Proposed Navigational Dredging at Bembridge, Report to Isle of Wight Council. 13. Posford Duvivier (2002) Isle of Wight North East Coastal Strategy Study Final Report 14. Posford Duvivier (2001) Isle of Wight North East Coastal Strategy Study Final Report Supporting Volume D Physical Processes 15. Posford Haskoning (2004) NE Coast Strategy Study 16. RACER (River and Coastal Environments Research) University of Portsmouth Geography Department (2004): SCOPAC Sediment Transport Study Coastal Geomorphology.doc Page 12 Final Report
17. UKCIP (2005) Updates to regional net sea-level change estimates for the UK. 18. VELEGRAKIS A (2000) Geology, Geomorphology and Sediments of the Solent System, in: M Collins and K Ansell (Eds) Solent Science - A Review, Amsterdam: Elsevier 21-43. 19. WALTON T.L. and ADAMS, W.D. 1976. Capacity of outer bars to store sand. Chapter 12, Proceedings Fifteenth International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Honolulu, HI pp. 1919-1937. 20. WEST I M (1980) Geology of the Solent Estuarine System: An Assessment of Present Knowledge, Swindon: NERC, Publications Series C, No. 22, 6-19. 21. United Kingdom Hydrographic Office (2006) Admiralty Tide Tables United Kingdom and Ireland Volume 1
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Appendix A: Beach profile Data
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Final Report
Eastern Yar Strategy Study Coastal Behavioural Response Report
A.1
Beach profile data from CCO Annual Report

Figure 8.1: From the Southeast Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme, Annual Report 2004
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Final Report
EXPLANATORY NOTES 1. Foreshore Change Parameter The advantage of this parameter is that a single number (ranging from +6 to 6) gives an indication of whether the beach is advancing or retreating and whether it is steepening or flattening. It was used in FutureCoast to indicate the medium-term trend in beach evolution on a strategic basis. The rationale behind the Parameter is that the most healthy state a beach can be in is to be advancing at the Mean High Water mark and at the Mean Low Water level and for the gradient to be flattening (beach steepening being generally associated with broadly erosive or regressive conditions). There are three components to the Parameter: Upper beach can be either advancing, retreating or no change Lower beach can be either advancing, retreating or no change Gradient between upper beach and lower beach can be either steepening, flattening or no change (referred to as no rotation) These three components are derived directly from SANDS (profile analysis by chainage). The beach levels are Mean High Water (MHW) and Mean Low Water (MLW)1. For one profile line, the analysis finds the chainage at which MWH and MLW occur for every completed survey and also calculates the change in chainage between surveys. In this way, a time series of advance or retreat of MHW and MLW can be derived. Also as part of this analysis SANDS calculates the gradient between MHW and MLW and changes in gradient through time. For SCRMP analysis, the two surveys used are the most recent springtime survey and the spring survey the previous year. This is because the beach is, theoretically, at its lowest volume in the spring. The beach profile is then classified into one of 13 categories (see Table 1). Note that whilst +6 and 6 are considered the most and least healthy conditions respectively for a beach, some of the intermediate stages are not necessarily a true ranking in order. For most beaches, suitable thresholds to be used in calculation of Foreshore Change Parameter are: Change in chainage <= 0.25 m is regarded as No Movement Change in gradient <= 0.05 is regarded as No Rotation However, there may be local variations to these thresholds, particularly for flat, wide beaches. 1 Calculated as the average of MHWS and MLWS and the average of MLWS and MLWS. These levels have been selected as appropriate for SCRMP analysis; other levels can be chosen. FCP MHW MLW Inter-tidal (gradient) Profile change + 6 Advance Advance Flattening + 5 Advance Advance No rotation + 4 Advance Advance Steepening + 3 Advance No movement Steepening Page 16 Final Report

+ 2 Advance Retreat Steepening + 1 No movement Advance Flattening 0 No movement No movement No rotation 1 No movement Retreat Steepening 2 Retreat Advance Flattening 3 Retreat No movement Flattening 4 Retreat Retreat Flattening 5 Retreat Retreat No rotation 6 Retreat Retreat Steepening
2. Change in Cross-sectional Area (CSA) The annual change in cross-sectional area is calculated as the difference in CSA between two surveys, expressed as a percentage change compared to the earlier
where CSA1 = most recent springtime survey and CSA2 = spring survey previous year. Therefore an annual change of 14% represents erosion during the last year of 14% of the area of last years survey.
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Final Report

Coastal Geomorphology

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Eastern Yar River and Coastal Strategy Coastal Behavioural Response Report

Methodology and Approach ...........................................................................................2

Coastal Evolution - Yar Estuary and Harbour ...............................................................6

Coastal Behavioural Response Model.........................................................................17

Development of Management Scenarios.......................................................................7

References .....................................................................................................................12 Appendix A: Beach profile Data ...................................................................................14

Background to the Project

Methodology and Approach

Previous studies considering geomorphology

Aerial Photography Assessment

Beach Profile Data Assessment

Coastal Evolution - Yar Estuary and Harbour

Contemporary Coastal Hydrodynamics Description

Tide Bar for Bembridge Harbour

+2.26 +1.86 +1.06 +0.29 -0.74 -1.54 -2.14

Extreme Sea Levels (m AODN) Year 2000 Year 2060

Figure 3.3: Location of Wave Buoys (www.channelcoast.org)

Current Speed (m/s) Maximum Minimum Average 0.83 0.00 0.21

Current Direction (degrees) 359.76 0.00 130.79

Significant Wave Height (m) 0.09 0.00 0.01

Mean Wave Period (secs) 29.43 3.92 11.24

Mean Wave Direction (degrees) 359.59 0.26 191.52

Tidal Height (mAODN) 0.83 0.00 0.35

Table 3-3: Extreme Wave Heights

Contemporary Landform Description

Historic Human Intervention

1590 map of Bembridge Harbour

1611 map of Bembridge Harbour

1790 map of Bembridge Harbour showing Parish boundary

Figure 3.5: Historical maps of Bembridge Harbour

Morphological response to Human intervention

Coastal Behavioural Response Model

Overview of Conceptual Sediment Budget

Assessment of morphological change from aerial photos

1909 position of channel

Figure 4.2 Close up of harbour entrance on the 2005 aerial photograph 1

Using same key as figure 4.1 above

Figure 4.4 Coastal Geomorphology Conceptual model - Historic

Assessment of morphological change from beach profile data

Contemporary Coastal Behavioural Response Model

Figure 4.5 Conceptual model for the present day conditions

Development of Management Scenarios

Geomorphological controlling features

Table 5-1: Dominant processes and features in the coastal zone

Processes Wave action across the ebb tidal delta Dredging

Associated Features Ebb tidal delta

Fluvial sediment input

Dredging Wind blown transport

Hypothetical Do Nothing Development

St Helens Duver Recession Assessment

Strategy Study Considerations

Appendix A: Beach profile Data

Eastern Yar Strategy Study Coastal Behavioural Response Report

Beach profile data from CCO Annual Report

Eastern Yar Strategy Study Coastal Behavioural Response Report

Eastern Yar Strategy Study Coastal Behavioural Response Report

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