Professional Documents
Culture Documents
11 Table of contents
273
Floods 274
Droughts 275
Table 11.1: Major drought events and their consequences in the last
forty years 275
Table 11.2: Severe natural disasters and their effects since 1994 276
Table 11.3: Risk linkages and integration 277
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Conclusions 288
References 289
M I T I G AT I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E RTA I N TY / 2 7 1
You can’t control the wind, but you can adjust your sails.
Yiddish proverb
T
HIS CHAPTER ASSESSES THE NATURE AND COSTS of water-related
risks. Such disasters as floods and droughts take an enormous
toll on human life, not to mention the social, economic and
environmental losses they cause. Risk is growing, with human-induced
emergencies now overtaking natural disasters. In 1999 alone, natural
disasters accounted for at least 50,000 deaths. The burden of loss, of
course, is greatest in poor countries, where thirteen times more people
die from such events than in rich ones. Economic losses also tend to be
larger as a proportion of the total economy in developing countries, and
most are uninsured. Natural disasters may be unavoidable, but with
better planning and prevention – risk management – their impact can be
reduced.
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T
Mitigating Risk and Coping with Uncertainty
HERE IS A GROWING REALIZATION that the scale and frequency of water-related disasters is increasing, and that
effective management and mitigation of water-related risk is an important issue. This is reflected in the
resolutions of international meetings and in the priorities and programmes of United Nations (UN) agencies, such
as in the International Conference on Freshwater (Bonn, December 2001):
The world is experiencing a dramatic increase of by as much as 10 percent. It has been claimed that the economic
suffering from the effects of disasters, ranging from losses from water disasters are currently equivalent to 20 percent of
extreme droughts to huge floods, caused by the poor new investment needs in water.
management of water and land and possibly by climate The efficient and effective management of risk is fundamental
change. Human society and particularly the poor are to long-term prosperity. Risks arise from numerous human-made
becoming more vulnerable to such disasters. and natural phenomena, many of which relate in some way or other
to various facets of water, including floods, droughts and pollution.
Databases of the United States Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance The operation and management of water resources is not only
(OFDA) and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster exposed to extreme events generated as part of the natural weather
(CRED) reveal that more than 2,200 major and minor water-related cycle, but is also linked to economic and socio-political factors as
disasters occurred in the world during the period 1990–2001. Of well as human error.
these, floods accounted for half of the total disasters, water-borne Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), as the
and vector disease outbreaks accounted for 28 percent and drought prevailing paradigm in water management, has been central to
accounted for 11 percent of the total disasters. Thirty-five percent of promoting the recognition that water meets a number of
these disasters occurred in Asia, 29 percent in Africa, 20 percent in interrelated demands while forming an integral component of the
the Americas, 13 percent in Europe and the rest in Oceania (see economy and environment. Traditionally in the water sector,
figure 11.1). These factors are restricting the potential for improving separate planning and operations strategies have been adopted for
socio-economic development and in many cases causing a decline in specific economic sectors, a practice that continues today. This
real terms. The impacts from just one single disaster have, in some narrow, sectoral approach, however, has probably limited the
cases, lowered the Gross National Product (GNP) in poor economies capacity for effective management of risk and uncertainty as well as
Landslide and
avalanche
9%
Famine
2% Africa
29%
Asia
Water- 35%
related Flood
epidemic 50%
28%
Oceania
Europe Americas
3%
Drought 13% 20%
11%
More than 2,200 major and minor water-related disasters occurred in the world between 1990 and 2001. Asia and Africa were the most affected continents, with floods
accounting for half of these disasters.
Source: CRED, 2002.
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16 Flood
Windstorm
Number of natural catastrophes
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
This figure clearly shows the increase of major natural catastrophes since 1950, leading to considerable human deaths (50,000 in 1999) and significant overall economic losses.
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Floods poverty drives many poor people to migrate. Frequently they move
Floods accounted for over 65 percent of people affected by natural into places vulnerable to flooding and where effective flood
disasters, while famine affected nearly 20 percent. Between 1973 protection is not assured. Informal settlements around megacities in
and 1997 an average of 66 million people a year suffered flood developing countries are particularly at risk (see chapter 7 on cities).
damage, making flooding the most damaging of all natural disasters Massive deforestation and urbanization reduce water storage
(Cosgrove and Rijsberman, 2000). According to a study by the capacity and amplify flood waves (Kundzewicz, 2001). In Asia,
United Nations (UN), about 44 percent of the flood disasters that where the majority of recent large floods have occurred, rapid
occurred in the world during the period 1987–1996 affected Asia. growth of industry and services in the 1990s resulted in
These disasters claimed some 228,000 lives – corresponding to considerable change of land use pattern. In Thailand, for example, it
93 percent of the total number of flood-caused deaths in the world caused a reduction of natural retention and storage in the lower
– and resulted in damage of US$136 billion to the Asian economy. Chao Phraya River basin, contributing to the downstream flooding
In the 1990s alone, severe flooding devastated the Mississippi River by about 3,000 cubic metres per second (m3/s), (see chapter 16).
basin (United States), and thousands lost their lives to flooding in Even countries located in dry areas, such as Algeria, Egypt,
Bangladesh, China, Guatemala, Honduras, Somalia, South Africa and Tunisia and Yemen have not been safe from floods. Although
Venezuela. Whether in loss of lives or property, the damage is counterintuitive, it is a fact that in dry areas, more people die of
enormous. floods than from lack of water, as the dryness is a normal state to
Despite these figures, floods proved less deadly, accounting for which humans have adapted, while floods strike unprepared
15 percent of total deaths from natural disasters, compared to populations suddenly.
famine’s 42 percent. Floods can have widely different characteristics. In major rivers,
Several factors explain the increasing extent of disastrous they rise and fall relatively slowly while in urban areas they can rise
flooding, among them the growing populations, denser occupancy of and fall in a matter of hours, even minutes, offering little or no time
flood plains and other flood-prone areas, and the expansion of for response. The freezing and thawing of rivers can result in ice dams
unwise forms of watershed land use. The hope of overcoming that cause widespread flooding upstream and then collapse with
The global awareness of unanticipated high risk in The Rhine countries have adopted the 1998 Rhine Action
international water courses was strongly influenced by the Plan on Flood Defence. It involves spending up to
Sandoz Blaze in 1986, in the upstream section of the approximately US$12 billion to reduce the exposure to risk of
Rhine (western Europe). The accidental pollution incident assets with a possible value of about US$1.5 trillion. The
had far-reaching consequences, triggering a successful Action Plan marks a change from planned and defensive
and sustainable cooperation policy for protection of the action to management of risk, and has opened the door to a
Rhine by all countries bordering the river. wider range of measures for reducing risk in shared rivers. It
The 1993 and 1995 major floods in the shared Rhine also represents a first example of an international
and Meuse Rivers forced the evacuation of 250,000 people, commitment to reducing shared risk based on the value of
when flood protection dikes came close to collapsing. These the assets at risk, as well as an agreed shared financial
events provided the impetus for the adoption of policies commitment to manage these risks. The Action Plan for risk
focused on mitigating risk and reducing vulnerability to mitigation builds on integrated risk management at the local,
pollution and flooding. They also drew attention to the risks regional, national and supranational level and includes water
of deterioration of both the ecosystem and groundwater management, physical planning and urban development,
resources, as well as increasing concern about more nature conservation and alternative improved practices in
frequent extreme flooding and drought events, as a result agriculture and forestry.
of climate change.
Source: Based on Worm and de Villeneuve, 1999.
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devastating consequences downstream. In coastal areas, floods may and aquifers) or agricultural (when conditions are unable to sustain
result from rising sea levels and tropical cyclone-driven storm surges. agricultural and livestock production) (Hounam et al., 1975). The
It is important to remember that flooding also has positive concept of what constitutes a drought varies between countries. In
benefits. Floods can play a positive role within our ecosystems and England, three weeks without rain is considered a problem; in many
the environment at large, for floodwaters carry nutrients that allow parts of the world much longer dry periods are normal.
for fertile flood plains and are important for various aquatic species. Durations and extents of droughts vary greatly. Examples of
Integrated risk-based management provides the opportunity to take severe, persistent droughts over large geographical areas include the
account of these benefits as well as mitigate the adverse impacts of Sahel covering 7.3 million km2 from 1970 to 1988, continental
floods (see box 11.1). Europe covering 9 million km2 from 1988 to 1992, and India covering
3 million km2 from 1965 to 1967. There are other examples of
Droughts extreme droughts in North America and Australia. Table 11.1 provides
Droughts are undoubtedly the most far-reaching of all natural a summary of major drought events and their associated loss of life
disasters. From 1991 to 2000 alone, drought has been responsible and economic losses as established by Munich Re. Extreme drought
for over 280,000 deaths and has cost tens of millions of US dollars can affect large tracts of land and large numbers of people anywhere
in damage. For example, sub-Saharan Africa suffered its worst dry in the world and can persist from a few months to several years. The
spell of the century in 1991/92 when drought covered a region of impacts of a drought hazard can have far-reaching social, economic
6.7 million square kilometres (km2) and affected about 110 million and environmental consequences.
people. While droughts have always been a fact of life in Africa, the
combination of drought with human activities such as overgrazing or The effects of disasters
deforestation may dramatically affect the desertification process and High stress results when many large disasters occur within a limited
lead to a permanently or near-permanently degraded environment. time span. The year 1999, for example, with several earthquakes, the
By the year 2025, the population projected to be living in Lothar storm in France, floods and mudslides in Venezuela and more
water-scarce countries will rise to between 1 and 2.4 billion, than 50,000 deaths, still remains in political memory as the second
representing roughly 13 to 20 percent of the projected global most costly year in terms of global disaster and risk insurance
population. Africa and parts of western Asia appear to be indemnities. Stress is also high when one single region is hit by a
particularly vulnerable. sequence of several major catastrophes. One example is the Indian
Droughts have been categorized in three ways: as meteorological state of Orissa, which experienced massive flooding in 2000, followed
(due to a lack of precipitation), hydrological (lack of water in streams in 2001 by the worst drought in a decade and new floods. Out of a
population of 32 million, some 27 million people were affected.
Table 11.1: Major drought events and their consequences in the last forty In poor countries, natural disasters generally result in larger
years economic losses in proportion to the economies.
Depending on the robustness of the national economies, the
Date Country or Fatalities Economic negative consequences of disasters tend to be amplified as they
continent losses (US$M) erode the political and social stability of countries and upset the
1965–1967 India 1,500,000 100 balance between the three necessary pillars for water resources
1972–1975 Africa 250,000 500 management: economic development, environmental conservation
1976 United Kingdom 1,000 and social stability (Appelgren et al., 2002). This is particularly the
1979–1980 Canada 3,000
case when one disaster can virtually wipe out the investments made
April–June 1988 United States 13,000
June–July 1988 China 1,440 in infrastructure over the previous decade. Table 11.2 lists the
1989–1990 Angola 10,000 severe natural disasters resulting in more than about 1,000 deaths
Summer 1989 France 1,600 in recent years. Most of these disasters occurred in developing
Jan.–Oct. 1990 Greece 1,300 countries, and the majority of the losses were uninsured.
Summer 1990 Yugoslavia 1,000
The Zimbabwe drought of the early 1990s was associated with
Jan.–March 1992 Africa 1,000
an 11 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a
May–Aug. 1998 United States 130 4,275
Jan.–Aug. 1999 Iran 3,300 60 percent decline in the stock market; more recent floods in
Jan.–April 1999 Mauritius 175 Mozambique led to a 23 percent reduction in GDP, and the 2000
June–Aug. 1999 United States 214 1,000 drought in Brazil to a halving of projected economic growth. Even in
Source: Munich Re, 2001. developed countries, an extreme drought may cause considerable
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Table 11.2: Severe natural disasters and their effects since 1994
Economic Insured
loss loss
Year Date Event Area Deaths US$M US$M Remarks
1994 Summer Flooding China, whole country 1,700 >7,800 Landslides; broken dams; over 2 million dwellings
destroyed; 50,000 km2 of crops destroyed; 85 million
affected
1995 7 Jan. Earthquake Japan: Kobe 6,348 100,000 3,000 RS 7.2; 150,000 buildings destroyed; 37,000 injured;
310,000 homeless
May–July Flooding China: south 1,390 6,700 70 Over 1.1 million houses destroyed; 3.9 million damaged;
severe damage to infrastructure; about 3,400 injured
13 May Earthquake Russia: Sachalin 1,841 100 RS 7.6; numerous blocks of buildings collapsed; oil
pipelines and production plants damaged; damage to
infrastructure
1996 27 June– Flooding, China: central, 2,700 24,000 445 Worst floods in 150 years; bridges, dams and over
13 Aug. debris flows south, west 5 million buildings destroyed; 8,000 factories affected
(production stopped); damage to agriculture,
infrastructure and supply facilities
1997 10 May Earthquake Iran: north-east; 1,573 500 RS 7.1; damage in 147 villages; over 100,000 homeless
Afghanistan: west
15 July– Floods Myanmar: central, south-east, 1,000 Monsoon rain; over 6,000 houses destroyed; two million
15 Sept. south, esp. Pegu affected
Oct.–Nov. Flooding Kenya: east; 1,850 2 Damage to over 9,000 buildings, roads and bridges; large
Somalia: central, south areas cut off; food stores destroyed; water supply cut;
over 250,000 people homeless
1998 4 Feb. Earthquake Afghanistan: north, Rostaq c. 4,600 RS 6.1; affected region isolated; 28 villages destroyed
15 May– Heatwave India: north-west, esp. 3,028 Temperature up to 49°C; severest heatwave in fifty years
16 June Rajasthan
30 May Earthquake Afghanistan: north, Rostaq c. 4,500 RS 7.1; 90 villages destroyed or severely damaged
9–11 June Cyclone India: west, Gujarat, Kandia 10,000 1,700 400 Gusts up to 185 km/h; waves up to 10 metres; storm
surge; 170,000 houses damaged/destroyed; major losses
to ports, storage buildings, oil tanks, salt fields, factories
and wind parks; severe losses to power supply
10 June– Floods Bangladesh: central, north, 4,750 5,020 Worst floods in decades; 60,000 km2 of land submerged;
30 Sept. south; India: north, north-east, 1.2 million houses damaged; severe losses to agriculture,
esp. Assam, west Bengal; livestock and infrastructure; epidemics (hundreds of
Nepal: east, west deaths); 66 million people affected
15 Sept.– Hurricane Caribbean: esp. Puerto Rico, >4,000 10,000 3,300 Gusts up to 260 km/h; hundreds of thousands of houses
1 Oct. George Dominican Republic, Haiti; destroyed; losses to hotels, houseboats and yachts, and
United States: Florida, to agriculture and forestry; major losses to the
Alabama, Missouri, Louisiana infrastructure, esp. power supply
22 Oct.– Hurricane Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, 9,200 7,000 150 Wind speeds up to 340 km/h; fourth most powerful
5 Nov. Mitch El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Atlantic hurricane of the twentieth century; 70 percent of
Costa Rica, Panama, United States Honduras’s and Nicaragua’s infrastructure severely
damaged; five villages destroyed by mudslide from Casila
volcano; major losses to agriculture; economic situation
severely affected; 8,000 missing
1999 25 Jan. Earthquake Colombia: central, Quindo, 1,185 1,500 150 RS 6.2; 80,000 houses damaged or destroyed; severe
Caterera, Armenia, Pereira damage to infrastructure
17 Aug. Earthquake Turkey: north-west, Izmit, >17,200 12,000 600 RS 7.4; 270,000 houses, businesses damaged or
Kocaeli heavy damage in the industrial sector; thousands
destroyed; missing; 44,000 injured; 600,000 homeless
20 Sept. Earthquake Taiwan: central, Nantou, 2,474 14,000 850 RS 7.6; thousands of aftershocks; landslides; >50,000
Chichi buildings badly damaged/destroyed; 6 million households
without electricity; severe damage to infrastructure;
310,000 homeless; 11,000 injured
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Economic Insured
loss loss
Year Date Event Area Deaths US$M US$M Remarks
28–30 Oct. Cyclone India: east, Orissa 10,000–30,000 2,500 115 Worst storm in 100 years; torrential rain; 18,000 villages
destroyed; Paradip Harbour badly damaged; 17,000 km2
of paddy fields devastated
13–16 Dec. Floods, Venezuela: north, west 20,000 15,000 500 Devastating landslides and debris flows after nine days
landslides of rain; villages, towns destroyed; thousands injured or
missing
2000 Feb.– Floods, Mozambique, South Africa, <1,000 660 50 Worst floods in fifty years; rivers burst their banks; dams
March tropical Botswana, Swaziland, breached; infrastructures destroyed; food and water
cyclone Malawi, Zambia supplies impaired; evacuations held up; 850,000
Eline homeless; millions affected
Aug.–Oct. Floods India: east, north, north-east; 1,550 1,200 Thousands of villages flooded; traffic routes blocked;
Nepal: central severe losses in agriculture and livestock sectors;
3.5 million homeless/evacuated
(RS=earthquake magnitude on the Richter Scale)
disturbances in terms of environmental, economic and social losses. smaller and unrecorded disasters that cause significant losses at the
The 1988 drought in the United States may have caused direct community level are taken into account. Devastation in the
agricultural losses totalling US$13 billion. aftermath of the floods that ravaged many countries in Africa, Asia
The general view is that the recorded losses are underestimated and elsewhere, and droughts that plagued all of Afghanistan, Africa,
and could be at least doubled when the consequences of the many Asia and Central America are major setbacks for communities
Source: Prepared for the World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) by B. Applegren, 2002.
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attempting to achieve sustainable development. With rapid ■ The second is defining and implementing the measures to reduce
urbanization and changed land use and settlement patterns the these risks. Such approaches can include ‘structural’ and ‘non-
negative impacts continue to rise and the gap in matching measures structural’ measures such as early warning systems and
for the management of water-related risks is widening. preparedness. However, for uncertainties and unidentifiable risks,
The costs of risks to society are aggregated over the full range of the only option is for society to share the risks.
events and different sectors (natural and man-made, flow-system and
production, social, industrial and international risk). It is therefore ■ The third is in transference of risk, what is termed risk-sharing. It
important to develop tools for integrated management of natural and implies imposing risk on a wider group of people or in
human-induced risk and uncertainty. The impacts of joint risk represent broadening the economic basis for support. In wealthy
the total stress on the society, which is the result of the compounded economies, this can be accomplished through insurance
risk of interlinked risk in the different systems and sectors and where programmes1 and other similar risk transfer mechanisms.
water-related risk is just one of many. Table 11.3 presents examples of
the principal interlinkages between risks or uncertainty in different These instruments need to be used in combination with risk
sectors. The matrix demonstrates the importance of a joint assessment reduction, and are not themselves a solution to the cause of the risk.
of risks that impact on society, based on an appreciation of the relative
importance of both natural and human-induced risks in terms of the Structural and non-structural measures
overall society and particular subsystems. The matrix proposes a model In attempts to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding, two general
for risk-based integrated allocation for minimized social risk. categories of measures or options exist: structural and non-structural.
Structural measures include the building of physical works such as
Responding to Disasters dams and dikes, but can also include channelization and dredging,
creating additional artificial floodways, diversions and ponds, and
armouring of channel walls to prevent erosion. Flood-proofing of
The growing frequency of natural disasters led to the adoption by existing structures has also witnessed rising popularity. Non-
governments of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction structural measures would include land use planning that promotes
(ISDR) to succeed and promote implementation of the appropriate use of land within the floodplain and floodway and
recommendations deriving from the International Decade for prohibits certain development and uses from occurring.
Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR, 1990–1999). The aim of the
ISDR is to mobilize governments, UN agencies, regional bodies, Acknowledging uncertainties
civil society and the private sector to unite efforts in building Risk identification and other risk management steps could provide
resilient societies by developing a culture of prevention and invaluable indications and alert vulnerable groups, but could also
preparedness. Different definitions and standard terminology are establish perceptions of false security. As shown by the increasing
provided by the United Nations Department of Humanitarian number of unexpected large accidents, risk is often characterized by
Affairs (UNDHA, 1992) and have been adopted by the ISDR the uncertainty and incapacity of society to respond to early
Secretariat after consultations with relevant agencies and sectors warnings. In this situation, there is an emergence of alternative
(see box 11.2). approaches: the policy of fail-safe systems is now giving place to
Recognition of effective management and mitigation of water- safe-fail ones. As stated during the International Conference on
related risk is growing, as reflected in the priorities and the Water in Bonn: ‘It is impossible to design a system that never fails
programmes of UN agencies, national governments, international water (fail-safe). What is needed is to design a system that fails in a safe
lobbies, emergency groups and private enterprises (see box 11.3). way (safe-fail)’ (Kundzewicz, 2001). This acknowledges
uncertainties and handles them through direct involvement of
Management tools stakeholders as responsible managers and potential victims of the
Risk management traditionally possesses three major components as accidents, rather than through a technically refined analysis.
follows (Dilley, 2001).
■ The first is knowing the risks. This means knowing the probability
of the hazard to occur and establishing the vulnerability index
1. Insurance of water risk is marginal and not attractive to the private insurance
and expected loss of life and possessions, injury and damage to industry and the coverage has come from governments that possess neither the
the environment. authority nor the resources, especially in developing countries.
M I T I G AT I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E RTA I N TY / 2 7 9
Disaster: A serious disruption to the normal functioning of coping capacities and mechanisms. Risk assessment
of a community or a society, which causes widespread forms the necessary basis for the development of disaster
human, material, economic or environmental losses that mitigation and preparedness measures.
exceed the ability of the affected community/society to
cope using its own resources. Disasters are often classified Risk management: The systematic application of
according to their speed of onset (sudden or slow), or management policies, procedures and practices that seek to
according to their cause (natural or human-induced). minimize disaster risks at all levels and locations in a given
society. Risk management is normally based on a
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical event or comprehensive strategy for increased awareness,
phenomenon that can harm people and their welfare. assessment, analysis/evaluation, reduction and management
Hazards can be latent conditions that may represent measures. The risk management frameworks need to
future threats, as well as being natural or induced by include legal provisions defining the responsibilities for
human processes. disaster damage and longer-term social impacts and losses.
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences or the Uncertainty: Different from quantifiable risks,
expected loss (of lives, people injured, property or uncertainty is defined as unidentified and unexpected
environmental damage, and livelihoods or economic threats and catastrophic accidents. Uncertainty often
activity disrupted) resulting from interactions between manifests as large unexpected ‘surprise’ threats and
natural or human hazards and vulnerable conditions. catastrophes and requires management approaches
Conventionally, risk is expressed by the equation: different from traditional risk management. Recent
uncertainties are exemplified by the major floods in
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Europe and the United States in the 1990s, but also by
The resulting risk is sometimes corrected and divided by the chemical pollution of the Sandoz Blaze in 1986 in the
factors reflecting actual managerial and operational Rhine (Europe) and the non-water-related industrial
capability to reduce the extent of the hazard or the incident in Bhopal (India) in 1984 which resulted in more
degree of vulnerability. than 10,000 deaths and 200,000 people injured. The main
For the purpose of economic assessments, risk is management issues of uncertainty concern the society’s
quantifiable and perceived in monetary terms. Taken from an incapacity to identify and react on weak signals; and as
economic perspective, risk is specified as the annual cost to one consequence, the reluctance of decision-makers to
the society from sudden accidental events and slow assume related social responsibilities.
environmental degradation, determined from the product of
Vulnerability: A function of human actions and behaviour
the probability or frequency of occurrence and the
that describes the degree to which a socio-economic
vulnerability as social and economic losses in monetary terms:
system is susceptible to the impact of hazards. Vulnerability
Risk (economic cost per year) = Probability (once in relates to the physical characteristics of a community,
n years) x Vulnerability (economic cost/event) structure or geographical area, which render it likely to be
affected by, or protected from, the impact of a particular
Risk assessment: Investigates the potential damage that hazard on account of its nature, construction and proximity
could be caused by a specific natural or human-induced to hazardous terrain or a disaster-prone area. It also
hazard to people, the environment and infrastructure. The designates the combination of social and economic factors
assessment includes hazard or multi-hazard analysis, that determine the degree to which someone’s life and
probability and scenario; the vulnerability analysis livelihood are exposed to loss or damage by a specific
(physical, functional and socio-economic); and the analysis identifiable threat or event in nature or society.
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Underlining the fact that risk forms a constraint on the ■ The Netherlands planned on turning its watercourses
willingness to invest and recognizing the large costs into a fully integrated technical and economic system
countries have to bear in adapting to the effects of water- but cancelled the scheme because of considerations of
induced shocks on their economies, the World Bank has national and local risk. With intensive economic
emphasized the links between water resource variability development and growing vulnerability, the social and
and risk with the need for investments to mitigate the economic risk from the emerging threat of sea level
risks (World Bank, 2001). rise, aggravated by increasing subsoil subsidence and
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has rainfall, is high. As a result, the country has adopted
assumed the operational responsibilities for natural disaster an integrated risk-based water management approach
mitigation, prevention and preparedness within the UN where water risks related to quality, flood control,
system. Disaster reduction and recovery comprise essential ecosystems preservation and groundwater management
components within development priorities, including poverty form the guiding factors for the national spatial
eradication and sustainable livelihoods, gender equality and development policy.
the advancement of women, environmental and natural
resource sustainability, and sound governance. ■ In the recent dialogue on the Swiss position at the
The World Health Organization (WHO), with mandated World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD), the
responsibility for emergency-related health hazards, has Swiss Government, together with Swiss Re, a private
emphasized the consequences of water disasters and the reinsurance company, emphasized risk mitigation as an
growing risks such as inadequate drinking water and important component of water resources management
sanitation and uncontrolled spreading of toxic waste. (Swiss Re and Swiss Government, 2002). The Swiss
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), under Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
the food security programmes, is concerned with the ‘fosters sustainable water management, with the focus
development of agricultural systems that can sustain on rural water supply and sanitation, integrated water
production during drought and flood. FAO has a long resource management and disaster prevention and
tradition of forecasts and early warning systems for relief’. The Swiss WSSD document position will be
regional agricultural droughts. applied to risk assessment, awareness-building and
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is focused on development of water-related risk-mitigating activities
emergency and post-disaster food relief and rehabilitation in the country.
support during and after natural and human-induced
water disasters. ■ The Giulia-Venezia region in Italy is under high social
The Global Water Partnership (GWP) has noted that stress from flood hazards and serious health hazards
risk management practices are important to the realization from long-term freshwater and coastal water pollution,
of IWRM goals, observing however that there has been together with other non-water-related social stress.
‘relatively little attention … paid to the systematic The regional authorities are reviewing the management
assessment of risk mitigation costs and benefits across of the joint risk-based approach.
water use sectors and to the consequent evaluation of
various risk trade-off options’ (GWP, 2000a).
National governments are exposed to water risk and
recognize in general its critical importance. Several
countries have recently made moves towards integrated
risk-based approaches in water resources management.
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Hazard mapping possible measures and the cost are defined. It requires an
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Scientific and assessment of what level of risk is acceptable, given that it is not
Technical Committee of the IDNDR (WMO, 1999), have initiated a generally possible to reduce risk to zero. The acceptability of certain
joint assessment of risk from a variety of natural hazards – risks may vary both in different countries and in time.
especially meteorological, hydrological, seismic and volcanic
disasters. They found the need for standard methodology in The economic grounds
different sectors where composite hazard maps are generally Decisions on risk management may be taken on economic grounds. The
recognized as an important tool for joint assessment. Mitigation of costs and benefits associated with managing the risk from a particular
risks from natural hazards depends on the implementation of risk hazard can be compared to the returns from other investments, both
management measures and political will. Risk management requires within the water sector and other public health and safety areas, to
a long-term view, while governments operate more on short-term maximize the effectiveness of public funding. It is also important to
objectives and limited annual budgets, and are sometimes reluctant note that social acceptability is a contributing factor in making good
to commit expenditure for proactive risk management measures that decisions. It should be recognized that decisions about allocation of risk
are based on weak indications of possible future risks. Governments are often made more as part of political economic processes than
are, however, generally responsive to short-term emergency relief through public consultation or participation (Rees, 2001). Establishing
requirements. effective mitigation of risk and uncertainty therefore depends on the
level and the strength of the political economy (see box 11.4).
An iterative process While the impact of water disasters (mainly from flooding, drought
Figure 11.3 shows that risk assessment and risk management are and pollution) is apparent, there is an even greater impact in terms of
iterative processes wherein various options are assessed and an future social costs. Appropriate investment strategies and a redirection
optimal solution with acceptable risk is attained, for which the of resources into prevention offer the potential for significant
Risk Assessment
Risk = function (hazard, vulnerability, value)
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M I T I G AT I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E RTA I N TY / 2 8 3
Losses from disasters do not cease once the flood has subsided. Managing droughts
Post-disaster activities also decrease vulnerability and increase The onset of a drought is slow and very different from flooding with
resilience. Relief during the first seventy-two hours of an event is respect to the size of the affected area, the duration, the measures
critical in order to limit loss of life. Such relief requires the maximum that can be taken to mitigate the impacts of the hazard and the ability
possible lead time to enable pre-positioning and mobilizing of to forecast the onset of the disaster. Nevertheless, many of the same
emergency assistance. Forecasts of non-significant events during principles put forth in the section on floods also apply to drought.
periods of high alert are also important as they allow the Drought is associated with significant human and social economic
re-assignment of human and other resources elsewhere. For example, losses, especially in poor developing countries where livelihood and
according to the Chinese government, 90 percent of the 30,000 food security depend on vulnerable rainfed subsistence farming and
deaths from the floods in 1954 were a result of infectious diseases livestock production. It is also often claimed that drought results from
such as dysentery, typhoid and cholera, which struck in the period a lack of distribution, know-how, and human and capital resources in
following the event (Worldwatch Institute, 2001). In contrast, after poor regions (Delli Priscolli and Llamas, 2001).
the 1998 flooding of the Yangtze, no such epidemics were reported. From a risk management perspective the questions that arise are:
Additional post-disaster activities, beyond direct relief, include support how frequently can one expect a certain type of drought to occur?
to quickly restart the local economy and resume basic social services. What are the vulnerabilities and expected losses? And what mitigation
Flood control and mitigation is normally a high priority under efforts or options are plausible and at what cost? It is then necessary
International River Basin Commissions and in bilateral arrangements to balance the cost of the mitigation efforts with the potential costs
on transboundary rivers. Similar to the Rhine, flood management in of the risks, and identify measures that will provide an ‘acceptable’
the Lower Mekong basin will depend on being able to conserve the risk to society for the specific drought at the lowest cost.
natural flood plain. Egypt and Sudan also have a long-established Drought mitigation strategies may aim to reduce the
cooperation agreement for preparedness and operational vulnerability factor by, for example, altering land use and
management of the Nile summer floods. agricultural practices, or may modify the severity of the drought by
Flood mitigation measures in Japan during the post-war River basins undergoing rapid urbanization are losing
rehabilitation period have both decreased the occurrences their natural water-retaining and retarding functions. At
of major rivers overflowing their banks and limited the same time, concentration of population and property
embankment failures, reducing the severity of flood in these urban river basins contributes to increasing
damage and the total area affected by it. In recent years, ‘damage potential’ (the maximum amount of damage that
however, due to the remarkable shift of population and could potentially result from a disaster). These problems
social assets into urban areas since the beginning of the are being dealt with through comprehensive flood control
period of high economic growth in the 1960s, measures that consolidate the combined use of facilities
urbanization has progressed in areas with a high risk of to maintain the water-retaining and -retarding functions
disasters: lowland marshes, alluvial fans and cliffs. Today, of river basins, the creation of incentives to use land
48.7 percent of the Japanese population and 75 percent safely and to build flood-resistant buildings, and the
of holdings are located within the flood-prone areas of establishment of flood warning and evacuation systems.
rivers. The inflation of property values due to rapid Comprehensive flood control measures are
economic growth and the continued concentration of implemented through the Council for Comprehensive Flood
urban property in floodplains have increased costs of Control Measures, established for individual river basins
flood damage in urban areas. Flood damage density (the and through the formulation of basin development plans
ratio of damage to affected area) has risen sharply; and that include improvement of the environment.
property damage due to river overflow and water
Source: Prepared for the World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) by the National
collecting behind levees as a percentage of total damage
Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM) and the Ministry of Land,
has been on the increase as well. Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) of Japan, 2002.
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providing irrigation from reservoirs, wells or water imports from ■ Donors dedicate far fewer resources to risk reduction than to relief.
areas unaffected by the drought. Other mitigation measures may
include crop insurance and relief programmes to ensure water for While risk reduction technology and programmes are very important,
basic needs and provide food supplements. the call is for enhanced responsibility for social water risk and
Mitigation efforts typically include contingency planning that recognition of a number of basic economic, institutional, legal and
might comprise arrangements for alternative supplies, putting into commercial constraints to the achievement of effective risk
force water economy measures and protecting priority uses. The slow management.
onset of drought combined with drought forecasting can enable such
measures to be implemented in advance of the emergency occurring. ■ Economic constraint: one major constraint to successful
The improvement in recent years in seasonal and long-term climate management and reduction of risk is that of recovering the costs
predictions, such as those issued by many national and regional from the beneficiaries. The dilemma, expressed in economic
institutes, including WMO’s Drought Monitoring Centres in Africa, will terms, is that management and risk reduction measures respond
assist effective implementation of contingency plans. to a public good. Different from quantity and quality, risk
There are a variety of longer-term mitigation measures that can mitigation responds to a public good that is non-exclusive and
be taken. These include changing crop type, recognizing lands that non-rival and economic practice suggests that it will be
are indeed marginal and appropriately changing agricultural underprovided by private markets or not provided at all due to
practices, and constructing reservoirs. Populations will eventually the free-rider aspect of the good. For the same reason, risk
have to build their security at a local and family level. An important mitigation has no efficient marginal price and cost recovery
requirement is, therefore, to identify and establish strategies that becomes complicated especially in a market-based economy. If
enable the community to cope with droughts, including revival of risk reduction is the only service of an investment pricing at
traditional customs for cultivation and livestock. marginal cost, some lump sum measure to allocate and recover
Relocation of populations is another possible long-term measure costs is necessary. These non-separable costs are however not
that is being debated. However, the social capacity to handle migration often included or recovered as part of land taxes. Faced with
and resettlement are issues that warrant careful consideration. budget constraints and the trend of transferring water
management responsibilities to the private sector, national
Perspectives in the Management governments are experiencing difficulties supporting increasing
risk management from public budgets.
of Risks
■ Institutional constraint: water constitutes one of several risks
Constraints to the achievement of effective risk management under the responsibility of Prevention and Civil Protection outside
There is a shortage of effective disaster-preparedness and mitigation of the water sector. As a consequence, management of water-
measures, e.g. flood dikes, early warning systems, shelters, relief related risk is often relegated to a technical side issue at a
stockpiles and disaster response teams. Some of the barriers to subordinate level and not integrated into the political economic
effective risk reduction quoted by the International Federation of allocation process in the water sector or other strategic sectors.
Red Cross (IFRC, 2002) are described below.
■ Legal constraint: for reasons already mentioned, risk is not
■ Geopolitical conflicts of the 1990s dominated the humanitarian always considered in project selection and resource allocation for
agenda, pushing aside the problem of vulnerability to natural economic development, notwithstanding that the responsibility
hazards. of managing and mitigating natural and human-induced disasters
is provided under the principles of precautionary and preventive
■ Responsibilities for mitigating disasters are fragmented. action adopted in many national, regional and international water
and environmental legislations.
■ Risk reduction is not an integral part of water resource
management and development. ■ Commercial constraint: the accommodation of hydrological risks
as a calculated insurance risk is hampered by the fact that the
■ Risk reduction is viewed as a technical problem, and often the vulnerable objects are spread over extensive common areas
underlying factors that compel people to live in insecure where a multitude of other risks are added up to a very large
conditions are ignored. covered and uncovered total insured risk. In this case not even
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reinsurance companies accept the risk, and governments might development targets. While international organizations and in
not have the financial strength required to assume the ultimate particular several national governments have adopted integrated risk-
financial responsibility. based management approaches, the institutional inertia and even
resistance to full recognition of the wider scope of risk mitigation in
Public and private responsibilities the water sector persists. Risk and uncertainty continue to represent
In traditional systems, water users are accustomed to operating and weak links in management of water systems. Parallel to the progress
sustaining production and social services under insecure and of traditional risk mitigation, there is a call to national governments
extreme climatic and economic conditions. As the systems grow and international organizations for alternative management
more complex individual responsibilities to manage water-related approaches and adjusted governance responsibilities that need to be
risk are assumed by state administrations. Box 11.6 summarizes the recognized, assessed and acted upon.
evolution of responsibility for risk in the water sector over the last Citizens are becoming conscious of and affected by growing
forty to fifty years as it has occurred in western Europe. social costs of disasters such that the importance of risk
But deregulation, privatization and market liberalization, unless management and uncertainty can be expected to emerge as major
accompanied by a shift of responsibility for risk to the private social and political challenges in water resources in the next
sector, may leave the state with a responsibility that is not decades. Figure 11.4 demonstrates the parallel and closely linked
commensurate with its resources. For example, the community- trend from natural to human-induced disasters in the causes of food
based risk identification studies under the National Flood Insurance emergencies. The evolution is towards wider social responsibility to
Programme (NFIP) in the United States amounted to about control also the causes of disasters.
US$115 billion for 18,760 communities.
For a number of social, institutional and scientific reasons that New challenges
range from climatic variability to economic globalization and New challenges have arisen in the control and mitigation of new
liberalized market economies with their reduced roles of and less well-known long-term risk and uncertainty, which are
government, the management of risk and uncertainty has come to adding to the costs and problems of managing natural hazards.
the forefront. Natural and human-induced hazards are becoming Traditional risks include unreliable or unsafe supplies for urban
one of the major challenges to the management, protection and water supplies and irrigation, in particular for large urban
conservation of water. They risk undermining other efforts to attain settlements that depend on one source (hydrological risk) or one
■ Up to 1945: Single-structured economies; traditional ■ Since 1990: End of the no-risk era, with more frequent,
management system based on individual responsibilities. severe human-induced and natural accidents including
industry-, pollution- and health-related catastrophes,
■ 1945–1980: Management responsibilities, including accompanied by civil accidents, violence, and civil and
prevention and civil protection assumed by the State. ethnic conflict at growing social costs. No-risk-based
integrated management and planning approaches become
■ 1970–1990: Often in conflict with reduced government insufficient to manage increasingly frequent, large and
role and resources, the functions are expanded to provide long-duration accidents;
for IWRM.
■ Today: No-risk to high-risk change renders current approaches
■ 1980–2000: In conflict with a trend of growing risk and non-operational, initiating a decline towards broader social
crisis, no-risk-based and development-focused management crisis; and risk-based management approaches are needed that
is continued. Risks are dodged by integrated management build on defined responsibility and timely, risk-based decision-
and planning, with constructs for participation and far- making to pro-act on unanticipated and invisible threats.
reaching provisions for sustainable development, precaution
and preventive action obscuring state responsibility. Source: Appelgren et al., 2002.
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35
Number of countries affected
30
25
20
15
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Human-induced Natural disasters
15%
29%
39%
Human-induced disasters have taken an ever larger share in the causes of food emergencies in the last twenty years. This figure highlights the need for evolving towards
wider social responsibility to control the causes of disasters.
Source: FAO web site, Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, 2001.
conveyance system (infrastructure risk). There are also localized risks Clearly, there is a close relationship between poverty eradication
from improper sanitation, risks of chemical and toxic pollution from and the establishment of Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management
industrial sites, as wells as risks from accidental pollution of (CDRM) strategies, which take account of economic, social and
freshwater water bodies, coastal waters or aquifer systems. In environmental dimensions in assessing risk and planning for
addition to the sudden or relatively rapid-onset disasters, there are preparedness measures in advance of water-related extremes. In
long-term environmental pollution risks such as accumulation of making decisions about flood and drought management, it is
toxic agents in the water and the soil. important to broadly involve various stakeholders, even while
Data on the linkages between disasters and poverty are not devolving as much responsibility as is feasible to lower or community
always available, sometimes for political reasons. However, the levels. There is an evident trend towards bringing together national
statistics show that the victims of disasters in places where and local governments, the private sector, non-governmental
preparedness has been low are generally the poor and the organizations (NGOs) and other representative groups of civil society
marginalized, most of whom live in low-quality housing in flood- in preparedness exercises. Such consultations build consensus about
prone or drought-prone regions or along polluted watercourses. The preparedness strategies and can help minimize risk. Encouraging
poor are the most vulnerable to disasters, being exposed to the public participation in self-protection strategies has been a successful
resulting health hazards but without the capacity to prepare for strategy in some areas, as the Tokyo case study shows in chapter 22.
them or re-establish the life-supporting conditions after the In many developing countries, women and female children are
catastrophes. Another tragic consequence is that flood and drought frequently the main providers of water for household use. Drought
are also the main causes of poverty and the displacement and alleviation could reduce the annual expenditure of many million
migration of poor populations. women years2 of effort to carry water from distant sources. Women
M I T I G AT I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E RTA I N TY / 2 8 7
Table 11.4: Examples of low-cost indicators focused on risk losses and progress of risk reduction
• in human life (number/year) • legal and institutional provisions for risk-based management (established/not
established)
• in real and relative social and economic values (total losses, percent of • budget allocation for water risk mitigation (total and percent of total
GNP, growth, investments and development benefits) budgets/year)
• population exposed to water-related risk (number of people/year, income groups) • risk reduction in flood plains (percent of total flood plain populations)
• other than water-related risks (percent of losses from seismic, fire, industrial • risk reduction and preparedness action plans formulated (percent of total
and civil stability risk) number of countries)
• risk-based resource allocation (country, international organizations, yes/no)
Source: Prepared for the World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) by P.E. O’Connell; C.G. Kilsby; H.J. Fowler, 2001.
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Encouraging countries to set feasible and quantifiable targets for reduction in water-related risks
Recognizing the distinction between disasters resulting from natural hazards and those resulting from human action
Improving forecasting systems, including early warning systems for the public
M I T I G AT I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E RTA I N TY / 2 8 9
■ changing educational and research approaches to pragmatic public health, energy, financial and corporate sector, and the
decision-making instead of searching for perfection based on insurance and underwriting industry).
unachievable data bases;
In order to achieve a more sustainable approach to managing risks, we
■ inviting academics to build on the basis of the foundations they have must enhance recognition of water risks at political and economic level
constructed in IWRM, and allowing ethics to take a central role; and and entrench reduction and sharing of risk in development strategies.
The management of risk and uncertainty to reduce social and stability
■ involving experts and officials with practical backgrounds in risk- uncertainty calls for integrated risk-based management approaches
based management from different sectors and disciplines built on defined responsibilities at national and global levels.
(prevention and civil protection, legal and social medicine and
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http://www.wmo.ch/apfm/
Site promotes flood management within the context of integrated water resources management.