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Spring 1999

Quest Quarterly

the

TM

Volume 4 Issue 1

A Comparison of Vapor Cloud Explosion Models


Several techniques are available for predicting the strength of the blast wave produced by a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), as a function of distance from the vapor cloud. In this issue of the Quest Quarterly, we describe the model used in our consequence analysis package, CANARY by Quest, and three other VCE models that are in common use. In the next issue, well discuss the similarities and differences among the models, and examine predictions from these models in order to demonstrate just how different (or similar) the models are. POINT-SOURCE TNT MODEL It is common practice to equate the explosive power of nuclear weapons or other bombs to the mass of TNT that would produce the same explosive power. For example, a 10-kilotonne atomic bomb has the explosive power of 10 million kilograms (10 kilotonnes) of TNT. The Point-Source TNT Model assumes this same relationship is applicable to vapor cloud explosions. For a VCE, the equivalent mass of TNT is typically calculated as follows. With high explosives (such as dynamite, TNT, nitroglycerine, etc.), it is also common practice to use the cube root scaling law, which simply says the distance from the point of origin of the explosion to any particular level of damage (or peak overpressure) is directly proportional to the cube root of the mass of high explosive involved in the explosion. The Point-Source TNT Model assumes the cube root scaling law is applicable to vapor cloud explosions once the explosive power of the flammable vapor cloud has been converted to the mass of TNT having the same explosive power. The following equation, which is a form of the cube root scaling law, is then used to determine the distance at which the blast wave created by the VCE produces a given peak side-on overpressure. This distance is equal to the product of the cube root of the equivalent mass of TNT and a scaled distance factor. Equation 2:
R where: = Z (WTNT )1/3 distance to a given peak overpressure, m scaled distance, m/kg1/3 equivalent weight of TNT, kg

An appropriate vapor dispersion model is used to calcu-

late the mass of flammable gas within the flammable portion of the vapor cloud (i.e., within that portion of the cloud bounded by the LFL and UFL isoconcentration contours). of the vapor cloud is multiplied by the heat of combustion of the gas to obtain the total available combustion energy. assumed yield or efficiency factor (typically from 1 to 10%) to account for the inefficiency of VCEs.

The mass of flammable gas within the flammable portion The total available combustion energy is multiplied by an The resultant energy is divided by the heat of combustion

of TNT in order to determine the equivalent mass of TNT (i.e., the mass of TNT that would produce the same explosive power as the VCE). (Wgas ) (Hc (gas) ) (Y) (Hd (TNT) ) equivalent mass of TNT, kg mass of gas involved in VCE, kg heat of combustion of gas, J/kg yield (efficiency factor), dimensionless heat of detonation of TNT, J/kg

R = Z = WTNT =

Equation 1: WTNT where: WTN T Wgas Hc (gas) Y Hd (TNT) = = = = = =

For any given overpressure, there is a corresponding value of scaled distance, which is obtained from an empirical chart (see Figure 1) of scaled distance versus overpressure. (This graph is based on the results of numerous experimental programs involving high explosives.)

(continued on page 2)

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AND

Figure 1 Peak Side-on Overpressure versus Scaled Distance for TNT Explosions. [Brasie and Simpson, 1968; Baker, et al., 1996]

Figure 2 Dimensionless Overpressure versus Energy Scaled Distance TNO Multi-Energy Model. [van den Berg, 1989]

TESTING

TNO MULTI-ENERGY MODEL This model is based on the premise that a vapor cloud explosion can occur only within that portion of a flammable vapor cloud that is partially confined. Thus, the amount of energy released during a VCE is limited either by the volume of the partially-confined portion of the flammable vapor cloud (if the flammable vapor cloud is larger than the partially-confined region) or by the volume of the vapor cloud (if the vapor cloud is smaller than the volume of the partially-confined space). In either case, the user converts the volume of the cloud within the partially-confined space to a hemisphere of equal volume. The model treats the hemispherical cloud as a homogenous, stoichiometric mixture of flammable gas and air, with a combustion energy of 3.5 million Joules per cubic meter (the average heat of combustion of a stoichiometric mixture of hydrocarbon gas and air). TNO has used a flux-corrected transport code to numerically simulate the explosion of a hemispherical, homogeneous, stoichiometric cloud, with constant flame speed. TNO presents the results of this modeling as the family of curves illustrated in Figure 2. These curves relate dimensionless overpressure (overpressure divided by atmospheric pressure) to combustion energy scaled distance (which is calculated as follows). Equation 3: R where: R R Po E Equation 4: Ps = Ps / Po dimensionless peak overpressure peak side-on overpressure, N/m2 ambient atmospheric pressure, N/m2 = = = = = R (Po / E)1/3 combustion energy scaled distance, dimensionless distance from the center of the hemisphere, m ambient atmospheric pressure, J/m3 (i.e., N/m2) total available energy, J

Hazardous Fluid Releases Materials Flammability Forensic Engineering Fire Control and Extinguishment
RISK/HAZARDS ANALYSIS

Consequence Modeling Accident Probabilities


SOFTWARE

Risk Assessment CANARY by Quest


Vapor Dispersion (Toxic/Flammable) Fire Radiation Explosions Thermophysical Properties

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)


TM

RMP-OCA HAZOP Manager

where: Ps = Ps = Po =

Spring '99 Volume 4 Issue 1

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To use this model, the user must perform the following steps.

Multiply the volume of the partially confined portion of

the flammable vapor cloud by 3.5 million Joules per cubic meter to determine the total available energy (E ).

Calculate the combustion energy scaled distance (R) for


any given distance (R) from the center of the explosion, using Equation 3. ing a number from 1 (very low strength) to 10 (detonative strength).

Specify the initial blast strength of the VCE by select Find where the combustion energy scaled distance (R)

The major difference between the Multi-Energy Model and the Baker-Strehlow Model is the method used to construct the graphical relationship between dimensionless overpressure (Ps ) and combustion energy scaled distance (R). The curves used in the Baker-Strehlow model (presented in Figure 3) are based on numerical modeling of constant velocity flames and accelerating flames spreading through spherical vapor clouds. With this method, the strength of the blast wave is proportional to the maximum flame speed achieved within the cloud. Thus, each curve in Figure 3 is marked with a flame velocity, which is presented in the form of a Mach number. To use this model, the user must perform the following steps.

intersects the appropriate curve in Figure 2, then find the corresponding value of dimensionless overpressure (Ps ) .

Multiply the volume of the congested or partially con-

Multiply the dimensionless overpressure (Ps ) by ambient

atmospheric pressure (P0 ) to obtain the peak side-on overpressure (Ps ) of the blast wave at the distance of interest (R).

fined portion of the flammable vapor cloud by 3.5 million Joules per cubic meter to determine the total available energy (E). any given distance (R) from the center of the explosion, using Equation 3.

BAKER-STREHLOW MODEL This model has some similarities with the TNO Multi-Energy Model. Both models are based on the premise that a vapor cloud explosion can occur only within that portion of a flammable vapor cloud that is congested or partially confined, and both models use the same method for determining the total energy available (E) within a flammable vapor cloud. In addition, each model uses a family of curves to relate Ps to (R) , and both models use Equation 3 to calculate (R) .

Calculate the combustion energy scaled distance (R) for Select the appropriate flame speed (Mach number) for

the specific situation being modeled, based on the values listed in Table 1 [Baker, et al., 1996]. intersects the appropriate curve in Figure 2, then find the corresponding value of dimensionless overpressure (Ps ) . atmospheric pressure (P0 ) to obtain the peak side-on overpressure (Ps ) of the blast wave at the distance of interest (R).
Table 1 Flame Speed in Mach Numbers (Mw) for Soft Ignition Sources

Find where the combustion energy scaled distance (R)

Multiply the dimensionless overpressure (Ps ) by ambient

Flame Expansion

Fuel Reactivity High Medium Low High Medium Low High Medium Low

Obstacle Density High 5.2 2.27 2.27 1.77 1.24 0.662 0.588 0.206 0.147 Medium 5.2 1.77 1.03 1.03 0.662 0.471 0.153 0.100 0.100 Low 5.2 1.03 0.294 0.588 0.118 0.079 0.071 0.037 0.037

ID

2D

Figure 3 Dimensionless Overpressure versus Energy Scaled Distance Baker-Strehlow Model. [Baker, et al., 1996]

3D

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Spring '99 Volume 4 Issue 1

DISTRIBUTED-SOURCE TNT MODEL This model, like the Point-Source TNT Model, is based on the concept of TNT equivalence and the cube root scaling law, but instead of treating a vapor cloud explosion as a single point-source explosion, it treats it as an aggregate of numerous point-source explosions. That portion of a flammable vapor cloud in which the concentration of flammable gas is between the LFL and UFL is divided into numerous cells. The mass of flammable gas within each of these cells is predicted by a vapor dispersion model. For each cell, the mass of gas is converted to an equivalent mass of TNT, using the same method as is used in the Point-Source TNT Model. All cells are assumed to release their explosive energy simultaneously. The blast wave generated by the VCE is a composite of the blast waves generated by each of the cells. Thus, the strength of the blast wave at any given location outside the vapor cloud is influenced by the distance to each of the cells and the explosive energy released by each cell.
REFERENCES:

Brasie, W.C., and D.W. Simpson, "Guidelines for Estimating Damage from Chemical Explosions," paper presented at the Symposium on Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 63rd National AIChE Meeting, St. Louis, MO, February, 1968. van den Berg, A.C., "The Multi-Energy Method: A Framework for Vapour Cloud Explosion Blast Prediction," Journal of Hazardous Materials, Vol. 12, 1989, pp. 1-10. Baker, Q.A., M.J. Tang, E.A. Scheier, and G.J. Silva, "Vapor Cloud Explosion Analysis," Process Safety Progress, Vol., 15, No. 2, 1996, pp. 106-109.

In the next issue, well discuss the similarities and differences among the models, and examine predictions from these models in order to demonstrate just how different (or similar) the models are.

QUEST
the Quest Quarterly

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CONSULTANTS INC.

A quarterly newsletter published by Quest Consultants Inc. For subscription inquiries, address changes, and article information, call, fax, or e-mail your request. You may also visit our web site and download this issue and past issues, as PDF files (zipped).

Contact us at: Quest Consultants Inc. P.O. Box 721387 Norman, Oklahoma 73070-8069 Telephone: (405) 329-7475 Telefax: (405) 329-7734
URL: http://www.questconsult.com/ E-mail: info@questconsult.com

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National Petrochemical & Refiners Association 9th Annual National Safety Conference
April 28 - 30, 1999 - Fairmont Hotel - Dallas, Texas Booth #4

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