Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MemototheCEO
MahipalRaythattha,JosephMoore,DingchaoLu,andSamuelYang March11,2009
INDUSTRYOVE ERVIEW:STATEOFTHEMARKET
NewEntrant N ts o Smart tphonesare eagrowingpartofthemorematurecellphon nemarket. Mobileph honesalesd declinedove erallin2008 8,butsmart tphonesales grew. Thisisam multibillion ndollarmar rketwithstr rongexpect tedgrowth. 9%ofU.S.consumers sbroughtsm martphones sin2007,upto19%in n 1 2009. o PCan ndelectronic csmanufact turershaveminimalen ntrybarrier rs. Theyarel likelytofav vorAndroidbecauseofopensourc celicensing, ,low costofdevelopment,andlowba arriertoent tryfortheO OSmarket. yofseveralo opensource econtender rshascreate eda o Therecententry comp petitivepres ssureforopenstandard ds. Lowersen ntrybarrier rsandswitc chingcostsf forhandsetmanufactur rers. Im mminentSh hakeout o Many ynewentran ntscreateahighlycom mpetitiveatm mosphere. o Advan ncesinhard dwarehavereducedthebarrierto oentry. o Networkexterna alityeffectw withsoftwar reapplicatio onsinvolvin ngboth developersandu usersleaves sroomforo onlyasmallnumberofcompetitor rs. o Thetr rendtoward dsstandard dizationwill lleadtoone edominantplatform.
MarketNichesandDifferentiation o ConsidertheUSmarket,withOSsharesshownabove. AppleiPhoneandGoogleAndroidaretheonlyonesshowinggrowth. FailedreleaseofBlackberryStormcoupledwithiTunesApp StoregrowthaccountedforBlackberryslossesandApples growth. Allotherplayersarelosingmarketshareduetopoorproducts. WindowsMobileshowsextremelackofinnovation. Symbian,Hiptop,Palm,etc.currentlyposenomajorthreatin theU.S.market. o Blackberryserveslargebusinessandroadwarriornichewithmany corporatefeatures. Exchangeintegrationandphysicalkeyboard Corporatemodelswithhighsecurityandreducedconsumerfeatures o TheiPhonecreatedthemassmarketofconsumerentertainment smartphones. Entertainmentandmultimediafeatures,alongwithanintuitive interface,attractnewcustomersthatwouldnothavesmartphones. o GoogleAndroidmustcreateitsownnicheinordertosurvivetheshakeout. Focusonembracingcorporatestandardstoappealtosmallbusiness whilepositioningtobecometheopensourcestandard. Providesuperiorbrowsingexperienceandcloudcomputingservices. o OSchoicecreatesswitchingcostsforhandsetmanufacturers,carriers, developers,customers HandsetmanufacturersmustsupportOShardwarerequirements. Developershavesteeplearningcurvesandmanylinesofcodealready written. ManyappsarespecifictoanOS,socustomerswillhavedifferentuser experiencesmigratingtoanotherOS. Carriersexertsupplierbargainingpower. o AT&TandVerizonarethebiggestandmostinfluentialintheUSmarket.3 ApplesexclusivitywithAT&Tallowedthemtoleveragefistmover advantageinpickingthelargestinternationalcarrierandentering manycountries. AndroidsOpenHandsetAllianceopensaccesstoallothercarriers.4 o Customersoftenkeeptheircarrierevenwhenswitchingphones. o Googlesubiquitouswifiplancouldendtheeraofcarrierdominance.5 SkypeandVoIPproductsprovideinfinitetalktime. RivalryandPriceCompetition
o Googleencouragesmanycompetitorsallusingitssoftware. o Applereliesonincreasedexperience(measuredinphonessold)tofacilitate costcuttingonthehardwareandproductionsides. o Mostsmartphonesareheadedto<$200pricepoints. Everycompanyenhancestheirproductwithcomplements. o Googleprovidesopensourcesoftwareandmanycloudservicestoencourage awidearrayofapplicationsondifferenthardware. o AppleprovidesiTunesMusicandApps,aswellassyncingwithotherApple desktopapplications o RIMandWindowsMobilecomplementMicrosoftOfficeandExchangeServer.
PRESENTPOSITIONING
Apple:Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,andThreats
Strengths o Theyhavefirstmoveradvantageinseveralareas. Developercommunityislockedinandgrowing. Theylackbargainingpowerorviablealternatives. Thereisalargeswitchingcosttomovetodevelopmentfor anotherOS. Applealreadyhas20xmoreapplicationsthanGoogleinitsAppStore duetoa1yearheadstart,alargermarket,andbetterincentive structurefordevelopers.6 Networkexternalitycreatedbyconvergenceofmanyusersand developers,withbothcommunitiesgrowing. o Hardwareandsoftwarecomplementsincreasevalue. iTunesMusic&AppStoreincreasesvalueofiPhoneandlocksin users. Verticalintegrationprovidescustomerassurance. AppleStoresprovidecustomersupport,assurance,and outreach. Controlfromfactorytoretailallowstighterqualitycontrol. Weaknesses o Applehasnosuccessfulcloudservicesorplatformforprovidingthem. o Applesinexperienceinprovidingtheseservicesevidencedbydisastrous launchofMobileMewith20,000usersunabletoaccesstheiremailfor2 weeks7. Arbitraryapplicationapprovalprocessesdiscouragedevelopers. AppsarerejectedforprovidingservicessimilartoAppleorAT&T.8
Developersriskspendingtimedevelopinganappthatcannotbesold ordistributedfreelythroughtheAppStoretothewholemarket. Opportunities o ApplyexperiencefromMacbookmanufacturingtechniques. o ExpandontheiPhonesstrengthasamobilegamingandmultimedia platform. AllowvideogamedeveloperstoutilizeiPhoneasamobilegaming device. 21%ofall(18000)appsaregames,and32.4%ofiPhoneusershave downloadedatleast1gameversus3.8%foraveragecellphoneuser.9 CasualgamersthatwouldnotbuytheNintendoDSorSonyPSPwill useiPhonegamesandbenefitfromthismove.10 ApplesappdistributionintheiTunesStoreshowstheirfocuson entertainmentandmultimediaofferings,withminimalbusiness services. o Expandandimprovecloudserviceswithsyncing,suchasMobileMe. o ImprovedesktoplevelsyncingwithotherPC&Macsoftware.
Source:CNNMoney11
Threats o Appleissolidlyentrenchedintheconsumerandentertainmentnicheof smartphones,makingitdifficulttomoveintoothernicheswithoutrisking alienatingitscustomerbase. o OpensourceOSanddevelopmentcouldeventuallyoutinnovateApples closedsystem. o Older,moreexperiencedcompaniesmaybeabletooutcompeteAppleon priceandcarriersubsidies. o Emergenceofcompetitorappstoreswithsuperiorfeatureslikelyto overcomeApplesfirstmoveradvantage. Thiscouldattractmoreconsumerstousecompetingplatforms makingthemmoreattractivetodeveloperstotheseplatformsand overcomeApplesfirstmoveradvantageinacquiringadeveloper base. o AlternativeiPhoneappstorescouldputcompetitivepressureonpricesin AppleappstoreandreduceApplesabilitytoexertqualitycontroloverapps. CouldhurtApplesqualityimageaswellasreducetheirappstore revenue.
Google:Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,andThreats
Strengths o Googleisarecognizedbrandnameforinnovationincloudanddata. o Opensourceplatformisattractivetodevelopers. Developingenvironmentwhichismorefamiliarandeasierfor experienceddevelopersattractsmanydevelopers,creatinglarge networkofavailablecodeandsupportfromfellowdeveloperswhich createsanetworkexternality. Openandunregulatedappstoreprovideseasysystemforapp publishing.12 Developershaveabetterguaranteetheirworkwillbe published. o MultiplatformOSrunsonmanyhardwareconfigurations. Thisprovidesincreasednetworkeffect. Hardwaremanufacturers,developers,andconsumerswanttoavoid lockintoonehardwareplatformwithnochoices. o Cloudcomputingservicesprovidecomplements. Emailandcalendarsyncingmaintaininformationacrosslocations. Freeonlineofficesoftwaresuitenotonlybacksupfiles,butallowsfor collaborationondocumentsafeaturenotofferedbycompetitors. o GoogleEarth/StreetViewwithTraffic,GoogleVoiceRecognition,etc.
games."http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/02/03/whytherearesomanyiphonegames/ 12Metallikop:"G1vs.iPhone."http://www.metallikop.com/?cat=5
11CNNMoney:"WhytherearesomanyiPhone
Weaknesses o Opensourceplatformincreasessecurityconcerns. Appscannoteasilybetestedandguaranteedacrossallhardware platforms. Inexchangeformultiplatformsupport,thereisnowaytomaintaina consistentreputationofqualityforAndroidappsandtheGoogle platform. Googlehasnofinalsayinproductionofhardwareforitsplatform. o GoogleisstartingfromscratchinthesmartphoneOSmarket. Norelationspreviouslyexistingwithcarriersorhandset manufacturers. InexperienceshowsinmaintaininganAppMarket. o TheAndroidAppMarketisrelativelyemptyandlackinginfunctionality. Developershaveminimalincentivetodevelopforasmallaudience andamarketthatismostlyfreeapps,withpaidappsonlyintroduced recently.13 Theyhavelostfirstmoveradvantageinsecuringbothcarrieralliances andadevelopercommunity,hamperinggrowthofthesystemand community. Opportunities o LeverageGmailandotherwebservicesinthecloud. Thereare92millionGmailusers,andgrowing.14 UseGoogleEarth+StreetViewtoprovidehighquality,voicebased, turnbyturndirectionsandGPSgeolocation. ExpandonYouTubeandGoogleDocsintegrationforAndroid handsets. o Usefreeenterpriselevelservicestoclaimthesmallbusinessniche. BlackberryrequirescorporateExchangeserverswithhighcostof entryandrecurringcostofmaintenance,withnontrivialchanceof downtime. GooglescloudservicessuchasGmailandGoogleDocsarelowcost withvirtuallynomaintenancerequirementsordowntime. NewinnovationsinofflineaccessofGmailandGoogleCalendarallow competitionwithdesktopcorporatesoftwaresuchasMicrosoft Outlook. BusinessconsumersdonotcareaboutApplesstrengthsin entertainment.
13AndroidDeveloperBlog:AndroidMarketupdate:supportforpricedapplications.http://android 14USAToday:"EmailCarriersDeliverGiftsofNiftyFeaturestoLure,Keep
developers.blogspot.com/2009/02/androidmarketupdatesupportfor.html Users."http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/20080415googlegmailwebmail_N.htm
Seefurtherdiscussionunderthestrategysection.
Threats o Googlesentryattemptfizzlesout. AndroidAppMarketfailstogainmomentumduetoincrediblylate entryandlateintroductionoffeaturessuchaspaidapps. o Androidhasnotclaimedanicheinthesmartphonemarket. Theimminentshakeoutpresentsalargethreatwithoutastableand loyalnicheofcustomers,Androidwillnotsurvive. Appleisentrenchedanddominantinthemarketof entertainmentsmartphones,andthemanyGoogleApple synergiesdonotwarrantcompetitiononthisfrontwithout cannibalizingahealthyrelationship. o DevelopmentontheOSitselfmaynotbesufficienttomeetthestandardsof anyconsumernicheeitherentertainmentdemandsorbusinesssecurity requirements. Currently,cloudservicesarestillnottrustedtoentirelyhandlea businessscomputinganddatastorageneeds15,althoughGoogleisin thebestpositiontochangethat. Googlehasmassiveresourcesincustomerexperienceand cloudcomputing,combinedthetwocouldbeusedtocreatea cloudcomputingsystemwhichmeetswiththestandardsof businesses. o Lackofwidespreadadoptionbyhandsetmanufacturersismarginalizingthe varietythatwouldbeprovidedfromanopen,multiplatformOS. TheHTCG1andG2onlyoperateonasmallnicheofconsumersthat actuallyoverlapsgreatlywiththeiPhone,accountingforitspoor performance. o ThereexistsaveryspecificstrategythatcanensureAndroidssuccess,butit hingesoncooperationfromdevelopers,handsetmanufacturers,andcarriers. LackofcarrieradoptioncanalsohamperthesuccessofAndroid. Handsetmanufacturersmaynotbuildphonessufficientlycapableor intuitive,andthiscoulddragdownAndroidsimage. Manyhandsetmanufacturersstillwanttoattempttocompetewith Appleonmediaphones,andmayuseAndroidasaplatformwithout workingdirectlywithGoogletoshoreupAndroidforthisusage. AndroidstilllagsbehindApplesignificantlyinareasof customerexperienceandsupport,interfaceandusability,and multimediaaccessandubiquity.Allofthesearenecessary featuresforasmartphoneOStargetedatthemassmarket.
15ComputerWorldUK:http://www.computerworlduk.com/management/security/standards
law/news/index.cfm?newsid=13652
SHORTTERMFUTUREPOSITIONING
Intheshortterm,weconsiderAppleiPhoneandGoogleAndroidastheonlytwo relevantplayersinthemobileOSmarket. o Thesestrengthswillquicklyerodeifnotactedon. GoogleandApplebenefitfromaccommodating/collaboratingwitheachothermore thancompetingdirectlywitheachother o GooglebenefitsfromincreaseduseofGoogleservicesbyiPhoneusers,as Googlereceivesabout50timesmoresearchesfromiPhonesthanfromany othermobilehandset16. GoogleclearlybenefitsfromlargenumberofiPhoneusersusing Googleonlineservices,wouldnotwanttolosethislargemarketforits services. GooglehasofferedaniPhoneoptimizedsearch,voicesearch,and improvedsyncingcapabilitybetweenGmailandGoogleCalendarfor iPhoneusers,indicatingthattheydostandtobenefitfromoffering theirservicestoiPhoneusers.17 o GoogleonlineservicesaddvaluetoiPhone,astheyprovidetheuserwitha betteronlineexperience,soApplebenefitsfromGoogleservices Appledoesnothavetheexperienceanddoesnotwanttodedicatethe resourcestoprovidetheseservicesthemselves,soitbenefitsfrom Googleprovidingthemforthem. Applesinexperienceinprovidingtheseservicesevidencedby theirpoorlaunchofMobilMeservices. ApplehasGoogleasthedefaultsearchengineandmap providerontheiPhone. ApplecouldmoreeasilyprovidecompatibilitywithGoogles servicesthanwithothercompetitors(Microsofts)services. Google o Maintainfocusonstrategyofaddingvaluetotheplatformwiththeeventual goalofincreasingGoogleadvertisingrevenue. ImprovetheInternetbrowsingexperiencerelativetotheiPhone. o Focusoncloudservices. Dealwithuser'sconcernsabouttrustandsecurity. o Theindustryiscurrentlyheadedtowardsstandardization. Googlemustmovequicklytoembraceandimplementopensource standards,regardlessofthestatusofopensourcedevelopment.18 o LeverageGoogledatatobuildsuperiorGPSandvoicerecognition.
o AndroidiscurrentlytheonlymajoralternativemobileOSascapableas Apple'siPhone. ConsidertheHTCMagic,whichshowsthatAndroidcouldpotentially competeinthesamenicheastheiPhone,withtouchscreenbased multimediaandgaming. o InordertomaintainAndroid'sposition,Googlemustmovequicklyto capitalizeonthecurrentstrengthsoftheplatform. Exercisegreatercontroloverhandsetdesignerstoensurethatnew phonesshowcaseAndroidsstrengthsinwebbrowsingandcloud services. o ContributecompanyresourcestodevelopingAndroid. PuttalentedmobiledevelopersasfulltimeonAndroid. UsestrengthsinadvertisingtoincreaseAndroid'svisibility. o Developandmaintaindeveloperincentivesinordertogrowtheplatform. Improvetheappstorestructureofpaidappstoattractdevelopers. CompetewithAppleondevelopersatisfaction, Buildcoregroupofopensourcedevelopersfortheproject. o Provideincreasedsecuritytocorporateusersofcloudservices. Addressconcernsaboutdatamigrationandreliability. Signcontractswithcorporatecustomerstomitigatefearsoffuture pricegouging,andalloweasydataretrievaltoallowcustomersto removetheirdata. Apple o ContinuetoleverageAppStore,ensuringcompatibilityofnextgeneration iPhonewithexistingapps. o AlternativeappstoresdoposeathreattoApplesclosequalitycontroland highreputationoftheirmobileplatform.19Applespossibleresponses include: Engageinmassivelitigationtodestroycompetitors. Signexclusivecontractswithimportantdevelopers. Fightandwinpricewarbyloweringappprices. o ConsidertheparalleltothedesktopOSwars. WindowsmaintainedasignificantleadoverAppleforalongtimedue todisproportionatelylargenumberofsoftwaredevelopersworking onWindowssoftware. AppleisnowinthepositionthatMicrosoftwasin,anditholdsthe upperhandindevelopercommunityanddeveloperincentives. Developercontractscouldbeusefulinavoidinglosing importantdeveloperstoothermobileplatforms. o ImproveuponthispositionbyreleasingmorefeaturesinthedeveloperSDK thatwouldcapitalizeonApple'sstrengthsinmultimedia. Providevideorecordingcapabilitiestodevelopers,increasingthe existingiPhone'slongevityasamobilevideoplatform.
19WallStreetJournal"BreakingApple'sGripontheiPhone"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629876097346481.html
Improve3Dgraphicscapabilityandsupport,attractingvideogame developerstotheiPhoneplatform;ifnecessary,signexclusive contractswithvideogamesoftwaredevelopers. o Applecanfurtherstrengthenitspositionbyeliminatingsomeobvious weaknessesthatcurrentlyleaveanopeningforcompetitors. TurnbyturnGPSisstillnotsatisfactoryonmobilephones. NegotiatedealswithcarrierstoprovideiPhonetethering. o CooperatewithGoogletocompensateforweaknessesincloudbasedsmall businesssoftwareandnavigationdata. Currenttrendspointtoanaccommodationstrategybetweenplayersinthesetwo majormarketsegments.Althoughthetwofieldsdohavesomeoverlapastheyboth attempttoreleasefullfeaturedmobileplatforms,ingeneraltheyattempttocoexist andservetheirrespectivecustomerniches.
LONGTERMFUTUREPOSITIONING
Manynewentrantsarelikelytoattempttocompeteinthismarket,allwiththeir variousstrengthsandweaknesses. o Netbookmanufacturerswanttousetheirstrengthsinhighperformance mobiledevicestobuildeffectivesmartphones20,andwillchoosethemost capableOSfortheirdevice. o OldermobileOSesareregainingrelevanceduetotheincreasedcompetitive pressurewithnewentrants.Wecanexpectthattheywillimitatetheindustry leadersuntiltheycansurpasstheminfeatures. Themarketwillcontinuetobesplitbetweenopensourceandclosedsource solutionsduetotheirrespectivecustomerniches. o Opensourcesoftwarehasfundamentalconcernsaboutsecurityand reliabilityfromthepointofviewofenterpriseuse. o Conversely,organizationscanstilluseopensourceifthecostofinternal securitystandardsislessthanthecostofusingamorereliableandmore closelycontrolledmobileOSsuchasAppleiPhone. o Closedsourcesoftwareoffersthecreator'simpliedsupportandguarantees ofreliabilityasaddedvaluetotheOSitself. MicrosoftWindowsMobile7 o Slatedforreleasein2010,ithasbeenhailedasaworthwhilecompetitorfor Apple'siPhoneintermsofinterface,technology,andfeatures.21 o Officesuitecouldpotentiallybeimprovedtoallowdocumentcollaborationin thestyleofGoogledocs,improvingappealtobusinessesandreducing Googlesadvantageinthisarea. LiMoPhones
o LiMoshareshardwarecompatibilityrequirementswithWindowsMobile6.1, eliminatingtheswitchingcostformobilephoneoperators.22 o LiMopresentsprobablythelowestentrybarrierforinteresteddevelopers. SymbianandNokiapresentaverysignificantthreatastheypreparetomoveinto theUSmarketwithcompetitivesmartphones. o AstheinternationalleaderinsmartphoneOSes,Symbianhasastrong developerbaseandgoodrelationswithmanyhandsetmanufacturers. o Nokiaiswellpositionedtocompeteinthemultimediamarketgiventhese connectionsanditstechnologicaldominance,withrumorsofdemo1080p smartphonesexpectedthisyear.23 o NokiahasalsomovedtoembracewebstandardsbyincludingSkypepre installedontheirnewsmartphones24,whichwillincreasetheattractiveness tobusinessconsumerswhoneedalargeamountofinternationalcallingor conferencing. Asanolder,moredominantopensourceOS,Symbianwillsharemany ofAndroidsstrengthsasitenterstheUSmarket. o Withitsmarketleaderpositionandyearsofexperience,Nokiacannowbuild itsAppStorebasedonwhathasandhasntworkedforeveryoneelse enteringthemarketbeforeit.Theyhavesignificantlygreatertransparencyin publicationstandards,andamoreintelligentlydesignedcategorysystem. Apple o ApplemaypotentiallychoosetodistributetheiPhonethroughothercarriers inadditiontoAT&T,causingmoredirectcompetitionbetweeniPhoneand Androidfromtheconsumersperspective. o ApplemaybeabletofurtherreducethepriceoftheiPhonebasedontheir increasedexperienceindesignandproductionandcontinuetofocuson beingatthehighendofthequalityspectrum. ItcanfocusonimprovingtheuserexperienceoftheAppStoreby addingmoreuserfriendlyfeaturessuchasapprecommendationsin ordertomaintainpacewiththefeaturesbeingofferedbytheapp storesofcompetitors. GoogleandFutureResponses o AndroidwillloseitspositionastheonlyopensourcemobileOScapableof succeedingagainstApple'siPhone,currentlytheclearleaderintheindustry. o Asdiscussed,Androidmusttakemeasurestoensuresurvivalinthis competitivemarketbycarvingoutanicheandadoptingopenstandardsto attractmoredevelopersandmanufacturerstotheirplatform. Openstandardswillreducetheswitchingcostforinterestedhandset manufacturersanddeveloperswhowanttomovetoAndroid.
Similarly,openstandardswilladdresstheconcernsofbusinesseswho areconcernedaboutbeinglockedintoAndroidspecificstandards. o Androidcanalsopositionitselfasastrongplayerinthesmallbusinessniche, andworkitswayuptofullenterpriseservices. Developdirectrelationswithinterestedenterprisecustomersand assistthemincustomizingAndroidtotheirneedstoallowforin housedevelopmentandmitigationofsecurityandprivacyconcerns. CoupleAndroidcustomizationwithcloudserviceprivatizationin ordertoofferafullpackagetoenterprisesthatwouldallowthemto abandontheolderstructuralrequirementsofBlackberrysoftware andExchangeservers,causingmassivesavingswhichareattractivein thiseconomy. o FocusonofferingcrosscompatibilityofAndroidappsandappsofother phones(iPhone)toexpandtheiruserbaseandeventuallydemonstratethe superiorityoftheuserexperienceontheAndroid.