Cu hi n tp chng khon Cu 1: Mi quan h ri ro v hiu qu u t chng khon VN ?

? Khi u t vo c phiu, cc nh u t thng k vng vo hai loi thu nhp, l thu nhp t c tc v t mc tng th gi c phiu. Thu nhp ca mt khon u t l phn chnh lch gia kt qu thu c sau mt khong thi gian u t v vn gc m nh u t phi b ra ban u. Ri ro c nh ngha nh l mt s khc bit gia gi tr thc t v gi tr k vng. Theo cc l thuyt c, ri ro l nhng yu t lm cho mc sinh li gim. hin nay ngi ta cho rng c mi yu t lm cho thu nhp thay i so vi d tnh d l tng hay gim u coi l ri ro. u t vo c phiu cha ng nhiu loi ri ro bao gm c ri ro h thng v phi h thng: - r i r o h t h n g b a o g m : + r i r o t g i + ri ro th trng + ri ro li sut + ri ro sc mua - R i r o p h i h t h n g b a o g m : r u i r o k i n h d o a n h , r i r o t i c h n h , r i r o q u n l . Cng nh cc lnh vc u t khc, trong u t chng khon tn ti mi quan h t l thun gia mc thu nhp vi mc ri ro. Thu nhp cng cao th mc ri ro tim n cng ln. Nu s dng m hnh CAPM phn tch thi ta cng c CT: ks = Rrisk free + Beta * (Rmarket - Rrisk-free) vi ks l li sut k vng trn c phiu. Trong : * Beta l ch s phn nh ri ro th trng ca mt c phiu. Beta c th c d on da trn cc s liu qu kh* Rrisk free l t l phi ri ro, v thng l li sut tri phiu chnh ph v loi li sut ny c coi l khng c ri ro thanh ton* Rmarket l thu nhp th trng k vng qua thi gian. Qua cng thc trn ta cng thy rng Beta cng cao tc ri ro cng cao th ks tc thu nhp k vng cng ln. Cu 2: Nguyn tc u t ca Warrant Buffet ? Nhng nguyn tc ny c th dng ti VN khng ? ti sao ? u t vo cng ty ch khng u t vo c phiu: Warrant Buffet quan nim rng c phiu ch giy t chng nhn quyn s hu ca c ng i vi cng ty . ng khng u t vo c phiu, m ng u t vo cng ty. Ni mt cch khc, ng hon ton khng quan tm n vic mua i bn li c phiu trong thi gian ngn. Thay vo , ng p dng chin lc buy and hold mua v gi - ngha l ng gi c phiu trong thi gian di, rt di v i khi gi lun nu l nhng cng ty ng xc nh l chin lc ca mnh. u t theo gi tr thc cng thc u t ca Warrant Buffet: Warrant Buffet cho rng v lu v di gi th trng ca c phiu s phn nh gi tr ni ti ca n. Do , nhng c phiu tt l nhng c phiu ang c th trng anh gi thp (underpriced) hn gi tr ni ti ca n. Theo ng, khong cch gia gi th trng v gi tr ni ti ny cng ln th bin an ton, cng nh li nhun m nh u t nhn c t c phiu s cng cao. c li nhun th phi tnh c gi tr tht hay gi tr ni ti ca c phiu hay cng ty . Warrant Buffet th khng a ra mt cng thc c th no ca ring ng. Do , theo mt s tc gi, cng thc tnh gi tr thc ca ng l mt b n. Tuy vy, theo phn ln tc gi v nh nghin cu khc, Warrant Buffet s dng nguyn tc xc nh gi tr c bn nh nhng nh u t, phn tch ti chnh khc.

Ci duy nht lm cho ng thnh cng l ng nghin cu rt k v rt su tng cng ty ng sp u t. ng tng ni: l nh u t thnh cng, chng ti c hnh trm, hng ngn bo co thng nin ca cc cng ty. Ngoi nhng ch s ti chnh, ng cn quan tm ht sc c bit n v tr, li th cnh tranh ca cng ty v nng lc ca ban lnh o. Nhng cu hi ca Warrant Buffet t ra trc khi quyt nh cng ty/c phiu u t: *Cng ty c pht trin tt hay khng, c li th cnh tranh khng ? Warrant Buffet ch mun mua c phiu cng ty c li th cnh tranh cao: hoc l cng ty dn u th trng ca ngnh kinh doanh chnh ca n, hoc l c thng hiu c khch hng nh gi cao. ng khng mun u t vo nhng cng ty khng c li th cnh tranh v ch c th cnh tranh bng cch gim gi bn. Warrant Buffet cn xem xt xem cng ty m ng sp u t c nguy c b cng ln mnh khc nhy vo cnh tranh. ng l ngi sng ch ra t economic moat ng ni n cng ty c li th cnh tranh v to ra hng ro ngn cn s cnh tranh ca cc cng ty khc. *Cng ty c m hnh kinh doanh n gin khng? Warrant Buffet ch u t cc cng ty c m hnh n gin, d hiu, khng qu phc tp. ng ch u t nhng ngnh m ng bit r. *Li nhun cng ty tt, ang tng trng n nh khng? *T s N/Vn c thp khng? T s Li nhun/N c cao khng? Gi s li nhun khng t c mc k vng, cng ty c kh nng tr c nhng mn n n hn khng? *T l Li nhun/Vn u t c tt khng? y l mt trong nhng ch s m Warrant Buffet c bit quan tm. ng ch u t vo nhng cng ty to ra mc li nhun tt. *Chi ph vn hnh ca cng ty c mc chp nhn c hay khng? *Dng tin mt u t c ln to ra li nhun v s tng trng? *Cng ty c gi li li nhun ti u t hay khng? Vic cng ty chia c tc hay khng chia c tc l mt trong nhng khc bit gia Benjamin Graham v Warrant Buffet. Benjamin Graham cho rng cng ty nn chia c tc cho nh u t. Khi cng ty s tr thnh mt my in tin vi tc ngy cng cao nh hiu ng tuyt vi ca li sut kp. *Bn qun l gii, c tm nhn, c b dy thnh tch v qun l kinh doanh, c o c khng? Warrant Buffet ch u t vo nhng cng ty ng tin rng ban lnh o c nng lc. Chn thi im mua: K tip Warrant Buffet s chn thi im mua. ng khng bao gi vi v mua nhng c phiu c bin an ton khng r rng. Thng th ng s i th trng vo giai on iu chnh hoc khi th trng ang thi k gim gi mnh. Khi ng s mua c c phiu ca cng ty vi gi thp hn gi tr ni ti ca n. Phng php u t n gin ny gip ng thot c nhng tn tht trong nhng giai on m hu ht mi ngi b thit hi v nh giai on c phiu ca cng ty Internet bng n v sp . Tuy vy, ng b mt s ngi ph bnh l qu thn trng v v th b qua nhng c hi ln. Khng quan tm: Vi chin lc u t ni trn ca Warrant Buffet khng quan tm nhiu n s ln xung ca gi c th trng chng khon cng nh chu k kinh t. ni ng hn ng ch quan tm n vic ln xung gi khi khi ng chn thi im mua. Khi mua ri, ng khng quan tm n s ln xung ca gi na.

Mt im na kh c bit l ng rt t quan tm n vic a dng ha danh mc u t. Nhiu nh u t nghin cu v thc hin thnh cng cc phng php a dng ha danh mc u t tc l chn nhiu c phiu ca cc cng ty khc nhau, ngnh khc nhau c tc dng b sung, tng h nhm t c li nhun cao nht c th trong khi gim ri ro n mc thp nht. Warrant Buffet khng theo trng phi a dng ha ny. ng cho rng nu chn doanh nghip tt u t th s t li nhun cao v ri ro thp. vic a dng ha danh mc u t, tc l chn thm nhng c phiu khc vo danh mc u t s gim li nhun cao to ra t cng ty/c phiu chnh yu. Nhng cu ni hay: Lut 1: ng bao gi thua l. Lut 2: khng bao gi qun lut s 1. Nguyn tc ny khc hn vi nguyn tc c bn ca cc nh kinh doanh c phiu thnh cng l phi bit chp nhn thng v thua. Ri ro n t vic bn khng bit vic mnh ang lm Gi l nhng g chng ta phi tr. Gi tr l nhng g chng ta nhn c Nu l nh u t bn hy tp trung vo vic cng ty s hot ng kinh doanh nh th no. Nu l nh u c, bn hy quan tm n th trng ca n, v khng phi l cch lm hay cuc chi ca chng ti Nguyn tc lm giu:Hy s hi khi nhng ngi khc tham lam. Hy tham lam khi nhng ngi khc s hi Theo ng khi s ng tham lam s y gi c phiu ln qu cao, vt qua gi tr tht. Cn khi s ng s hi s y gi c phiu xung to ra nhng c phiu c bin an ton, v li nhun trong tng lai cao. Thi gian l k th ca nhng doanh nghip lm n thua l v l bn ca doanh nghip ang n nn lm ra. Nu doanh nghip bn u t c t sut li nhun trn vn ch s hu 20-25%, thi gian l bn ca bn. Nu t sut ca doanh nghip thp hn mc bn mong mun th thi gian l k th ca bn. Theo ng, nu l u t vo doanh nghip c li sut thp hn k vng, th hy rt ra cng sm cng tt, v cng lu, nh u t cng b l v v th mt c hi u t cng ty tt. cn nu u t ng cng ty lm n hiu qu, th ng rt tin gc v c tc ra khi doanh nghip. cng lu bao nhiu th li nhun sinh ra cng cao by nhiu.
Warren Buffett v 9 nguyn tc u t lng ly
Mc: u t - Trading

Warren Buffett, nh tin tri x Omaha, tr thnh mt trong nhng ngi giu nht th gii ch nh tun th nhng nguyn tc n gin, nhng rt quan trng, ny.

Nguyn tc 1: Hy sng tit kim

Khi nn kinh t ri vo suy thoi v buc bn phi sng tit kim th hy nhn vo mt tch cc ca n: bn c th ang ging vi Warren Buffet.

Warren Buffett vn ang sng trong ngi nh khim tn ti Omaha Omaha, bang Nebraska (Hoa K) c ng mua cch y hn 50 nm.

Ti sao sng tit kim c th gip Buffet tr thnh nh u t v i?

Th nht, iu ny gip ng c nhiu tin hn u t.

Th hai, mt ngi tit kim th cng s yu cu li sng tit kim n cc cp qun l. i vi Buffet, vic tr lng qu mc l bo ng .

Th ba, ngi tit kim th khng cn mc sinh li nhanh chu cp cho li sng xa hoa. iu ny gip cho h suy ngh cn thn hn khi mua bn chng khon, gip h tr thnh nh u t hiu qu.

Nguyn tc 2: Ch i ming mi ngon

Hy kin nhn ch i mt thi gian cho n khi s hn lon ca th trng em n nhng ming mi ngon hoc l nh gi c phiu ca nhng cng ty tim nng tr nn rt r.

Nguyn tc 3: Hy l ngi i ngc xu hng

Mt trong nhng cch tt nht tm kim li nhun l i ngc li m ng.

Trong l th thng nin gi c ng vo nm 1986, Buffett vit: Chng ti n gin l ch c gng s hi khi ngi khc tham lam v ch tham lam khi ngi khc s hi.

iu ny khng c ngha l m ng lun lun sai lm, m v hnh ng ca m ng thng c phn nh vo gi.

V vy, khi m ng ang cc k bi quan th thng l thi im mua chng khon; cn khi phn ln ang t tin th hy cn trng.

Nguyn tc 4: u t vo nhng g bn hiu

Mt trong nhng nguyn tc c bn ca Buffett l: Nu bn khng hiu v sn phm ca cng ty hay cch m cng ty kim tin th hy trnh xa n.

iu ny l khng h d dng.

Trong cn st dotcom cui nhng nm 1990, Buffet khng u t vo cc cng ty cng ngh, v ng cho rng ng khng hiu nhng cng ty ny.

ng tr thnh nh u t rt khn ngoan khi sau , bong bng cng ngh sp .

Nguyn tc 5: ng ph thuc vo ngi khc v quyt nh u t

Nu bn cn ngi khc ni rng bn ang u t ng hng th khng th tr thnh nh u t nh Buffett.

Buffett thu c li nhun vt tri v mua c phiu m ngi khc khng thch, v khng c cc chuyn gia ni ti.

Nguyn tc 6: Mua cng ty r

y l trit l ca nh u t theo trng phi u t gi tr.

u tin, Buffett c tnh gi tr ni ti (intrinsic value) ca doanh nghip. Sau , xc nh mt ngng an ton (margin of safety) mua chng khon.

Nguyn tc 7: La chn cng ty c li th cnh tranh bn vng (economic moats)

Ni cch khc, cng ty phi s hu ro cn gia nhp, v khin i th khng th gia nhp vo ngnh kinh doanh mt cch d dng.

y c th l s hu bn quyn iu ch dc phm, u th v thng hiu

V d, i vi BNSF Railway, rt kh cc cng ty vn ti khc c th xy dng h thng ng st Bc M cnh tranh trong lnh vn vn chuyn ng st.

Hay Coca-Cola, mt khon u t di hn ca Buffett, c u th v nhn hiu v h thng phn phi trn ton cu.

Nguyn tc 8: Mua c phiu yu thch vi s lng ln/tp trung

Nhiu qu u t ti thiu ri ro bng cch a dng ha danh mc.

Tuy vy, Buffett li dng nh i ngc li m ng khi c gng tm nhng cng ty a thch v mua vo vi lng ln.

Buffett cho rng ng c th hn ch ri ro bng vic hiu bit v cng ty nhiu hn th trng, v sau l kin nhn ch i mua vo vi gi hp l.

Nguyn tc 9: Nm gi sut i

Buffett thng ni rng thi gian nm gi m ng yu thch l mi mi. n cha trong li ni bng a ny l 2 hm :

(1) Mt cng ty ch xng ng u t khi n c th vt tri trong nhiu thp k sau .

(2) Bn phi t mnh quyt nh khon u t ca mnh v trnh chy theo m ng.

Tuy vy, iu ny khng c ngha l bn mua c phiu ri qun n i.

Buffett theo di cc khon u t rt st sao v thot ra khi ng ngh rng gi c phiu t n mc gi tr ni ti, hay khi pht hin c vn .

Buffett bn c phiu Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac, cc cng ty cho vay mua nh th chp, trc khi c phiu cc cng ty ny n tung theo sau cuc khng hong 2008 2009.

Nhng nguyn tc ny c th dng ti VN khng? ti sao ?

Quy tc s 1 Ngha en ca QUY TC S 1 l Khng mt tin nhng thc t n c ngha l hy u t mt cch chc chn. S chc chn ny s c c bng cch MUA C PHIU CA MT CNG TY TUYT VI VI MC GI HP DN. iu ny cng chnh l kt tinh ca trng phi u t gi tr ni ting ca t ph Warren Buffet m nghim thc t trn th trng c th p dng phng php ca Buffet. Thnh cng thm th gii vn ca tng lu nay. Chng ta s mt nhiu thi gian nghin cu, mt nhiu thi gian ki cha bit c v th trng VN vn cha pht trin ging th trng nc ngoi v nh u t nh l chng ta cng khng c c v th nh Buffet m c

c nhng thng tin quan trng xc nh ci gi l gi tr v hnh ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin nu thc hin theo Quy tc s 1 th cng gip ch chng ta rt nhiu trong vic la chn cc c phiu. Cc bc phn tch theo Quy tc s 1 Bc 1 : Hy tr li 4 cu hi sau y khi n vi 1 c phiu ca mt cng ty - Cu hi 1 : Cng ty ny c ngha g vi bn khng?. iu ct li m cu hi ny nhc nh bn chnh l hy tm hiu mt cht thng tin v cng ty . C nhiu nh u t hin nay ch bit m c phiu ABC,XYZ ch chng bit tn gi ca cng ty l nh th no, kinh doanh trong lnh vc g. - Cu hi 2 : Cng ty ny c li th cnh tranh ln hay khng?. Cu hi ny nhc nh bn hy xem cng ty ny lm n trong nhm ngnh ngh no, kh nng cnh tranh vi cc ngnh ngh khc ra sao? Kh nng cnh tranh vi cc cng ty trong ngnh th no? Quy tc s 1 khuyn bn nn tm hiu ngay cc cng ty ang ng u hoc trong nhm ng u ngnh. V d ni n thy sn ti TT Vit Nam th HVG ni ln l mt cng ty u ngnh. Ni n ngnh sn xut cc sn phm nha th khng th khng nhc n NTP hay BMP. Cc trang web thng k v chng khon cng c tng hp theo ngnh. Gip ch rt nhiu cho cc bn. - Cu hi 3 : Cng ty c c qun l tt hay khng?. y l mt cu hi ht sc quan trng m bn phi tr li. Qun tr ca cng ty quyt nh n s thnh bi ca cng ty . Cc ng thi ca ban qun tr i vi c ng ca cng ty cng ht sc quan trng. Mt cng ty khng quan tm n quyn li ca c ng th sm hay mun cng tht bi. Ti th trng Vit Nam, bn c th d dng nhn thy u l cng ty c qun tr tt. Chc mi ngi vn nh v cu kt lm gi gia hi ng qun tr VTV vi c ng ln, v cc c ng AAA lm gi c kt hp CT HQT hay gn y c v c phiu DVD. C th chng ta rt kh khn trong vic nh gi nng lc ca Hi ng Qun Tr. Nhng ch t chng ta cng nn quan tm n Bo Co Thng Nin (ci ny rt t cng ty nim yt trn sn thc hin), i hp i Hi C ng, Thng Xuyn theo di cc ng thi mua bn ca thnh vin HQTv..vTi cha thy ch tch hay thnh vin HQT ca VNM, HAG,SSI ng k bn c phiu trong nhng nm va qua. - Cu hi 4 : Bin an ton v gi c phiu ca cng ty ny nh th no?. tr li cu hi ny th vic u tin bn nn lm l theo di bin ng gi ca c phiu cng ty ny hin ti v c trong qu kh. Sau l kt hp vi vic phn tch cc ch s c bn hin ti ca cng ty trong nm hin ti v k hoch di hn 5 nm ca cng ty c th tnh ton cho mnh mc gi mong mun. Vic ny kt hp vi phn tch k thut th qu l tuyt vi. Bc 2 : Cc ch s ti chnh c bn ca mt cng ty 1. T sut li nhun trn vn u t ( ROE) 2. T l tng trng doanh thu 3. T l tng trng li nhun trn mi c phiu (EPS) 4. T l tng trng gi tr s sch trn mi c phiu (BVPS) 5. Cc khon n ngn hn v di hn Mt s lu :

- hiu cc ch s ny th c rt nhiu ngun chng ta tham kho online trn mng t cng thc tnh cho n ngha ca n. Tuy nhin ngun tin cy nht vn l chng ta da trn BO CO TI CHNH NM KIM TON ca cng ty t tnh ton. - Ti nhn mnh n t l tng trng tc l cc ch s ny ti nm ti chnh phi c t l tng trn 10% so vi nm trc. Hoc bn c th theo di qu trnh tng ca cc ch s trong 5 nm tr li y th mi c th bit c cng ty tng trng nh th no. C nhiu cng ty tng vn lin tc nhng t l li nhun khng tng theo tng ng. Ti TTCK Vit Nam khi cc doanh nghip vn cn non tr th chng ta cng kh i hi t l tng trng cao v EPS. Bn c th nhn thy khi ngn hng l mt minh chng r rt ( ACB,STB,EIB). REE cng l mt v d in hnh. T mt cng ty bluechip qua tng vn nhiu ln nhng li nhun khng h ci thin. V gi c phiu REE by gi th cc bn cng bit ri. - Cc khon n khng phi iu g xu xa. Doanh nghip m c vay n nhiu cng l mt doanh nghip ng ch . Vn l kh nng tr n ra sao. Cc bn phi c bit theo di nhng chnh sch kinh t v m, th trng hng ha th gii xem n nh hng nh th no i vi ngnh ngh m doanh nghip ang hot ng. V d nh hin ti cc doanh nghip BS rt kh khn trong ngn hn v thm ch c trung hn ( nu nh nh nc khng c chnh sch mi h tr ). i km vi cc doanh nghip ny th cc doanh nghip thp v xi-mng cng v ly. Cn ngnh cao su t nhin th ang bay cao nh hng li v vic gi cao su th gii tng mnh trong thi gian qua. Tuy nhin c nhng lu v thc tin u t ti TTCK VN - C nn chi c phiu c lm gi khng?. Mt cu hi rt th v bi l trn tt ca chng ta c rt nhiu v lm gi c phiu. Theo ti l vn nn chi nhng phi c bit cn thn v khng bao gi dng ton b s tin ca mnh u t vo nhng c phiu nh vy. Ch ti a 30% ti khon ca bn thi nh. Ti khuyn ngh bn vn nn kt hp c phng php chn c phiu theo Quy tc s 1 trn quyt nh u t. Vn c nhng c phiu tt c lm gi y. Ti sao li khng chi nh? Tuy nhin hy chn nhng cp c thanh khon kh tr ln, khi lng giao dch TB 10 phin lin tip phi trn 50k c phiu i vi penny stock, trn 100k c phiu i vi dng mid-cap. - Cut loss cng vic khng mun lm vn phi lm. Vn ny c th ni l hu nh ai cng mc phi. Ni mi ri, nhiu kinh nghim xng mu ri sao vn c sai lm trong vic cut loss. Bn nn tp i din vi vic mnh sai. Cc bn v ti sai lm v chc s vn c nhng sai lm trong tng lai. Vic ny l bnh thng ngay vi c nhng nh u t v i nh Buffet. Vn l chng ta phi khc phc hu qu ngay khi ta nhn thy sai lm ch ng n nghim trng hn. c bit lu khi bn dng margin, hay cut loss ( hay t nht phi cut phn margin) khi th trng xung gi 2 phin lin tip. - Ti b l tu ri phi tm mi cch ln tu thi. Nh cc bn cng bit cm tin trong uptrend xon hn nhiu so vi cm c trong downtrend. Khi ti post bi ny ln din n cng ng vo lc th trng ang trong tnh th nhy cm. Nhiu ngi l tu ang rt xon. Hy qun n i bn . Ch mt con sng khc. Chng ta u t c i ch c u t vo mt con sng ri t b th trng u. ng t a mnh vo tnh th nguy him khi c c gng lao vo mua c phiu sau khi chng kin vi phin tng trn lin tip v rt c

th lc chng ta ln c tu th on tu ch cn ai. - Hng phm-Hng nng-C phin n 300%...x..y..z. Bn s gp nhiu bng rn biu ng trn ngp cc din n chng khon khi th trng tng im. T m vo xem cng l nguy him ri. Hnh ng theo m khng suy ngh th li cng nguy him hn. Nn nh rng nhng ngi m bn khng quen bit, thm ch nhng ngi c giao tip vi bn hay ngay c Broker qun l ti khon ca bn cng c th khin bn trng tay. Nu bn khng c ngun thng tin ng tin cy c kim chng nhiu ln th bn ch nn tin vo danh mc c la chn theo Quy tc s 1 ca mnh. - n by ti chnh ( margin ) v Bn Khng ( Shortsell)hy lun tm cch trnh xa. y l nhn mnh cui cng ca ti trong cc lu v thc tin u t trn TT Vit Nam. Ti phi dng cm t TM CCH TRNH XA v n c ging nh nghin heroin vy. Chng kin tn mt tc hi ca n ri m vn c mun th. Ch n khi sp cht ( chy ti khon ) mi bit l mnh khng nn s vo. Ni a vy thi ch cc cng c margin hay shortsell cng c tc dng gip lm giu nhanh chng. Nhng chng ta nu ang level mi tham gia th trng th tuyt i khng nn s dng. Ch khi chng ta c nhiu kinh nghim, tri qua nhiu thng trm ca th trng, bit r c lc no nn ra nn vo, hc thuc lng bi hc cut loss v bit v Phn Tch K Thut th mi nn dng th.

Cu 3: Nhng yu t no cn quan tm khi u t chng khon ? lin h n iu kin c th TTCK VN ? Quy tc s 1 Ngha en ca QUY TC S 1 l Khng mt tin nhng thc t n c ngha l hy u t mt cch chc chn. S chc chn ny s c c bng cch MUA C PHIU CA MT CNG TY TUYT VI VI MC GI HP DN. iu ny cng chnh l kt tinh ca trng phi u t gi tr ni ting ca t ph Warren Buffet m th gii vn ca tng lu nay. Chng ta s mt nhiu thi gian nghin cu, mt nhiu thi gian kim nghim thc t trn th trng c th p dng phng php ca Buffet. Thnh cng th cha bit c v th trng VN vn cha pht trin ging th trng nc ngoi v nh u t nh l chng ta cng khng c c v th nh Buffet m c c nhng thng tin quan trng xc nh ci gi l gi tr v hnh ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin nu thc hin theo Quy tc s 1 th cng gip ch chng ta rt nhiu trong vic la chn cc c phiu. Cc bc phn tch theo Quy tc s 1 Bc 1 : Hy tr li 4 cu hi sau y khi n vi 1 c phiu ca mt cng ty - Cu hi 1 : Cng ty ny c ngha g vi bn khng?. iu ct li m cu hi ny nhc nh bn chnh l hy tm hiu mt cht thng tin v cng ty . C nhiu nh u t hin nay ch bit m c phiu ABC,XYZ ch chng bit tn gi ca cng ty l nh th no, kinh doanh trong lnh vc g. - Cu hi 2 : Cng ty ny c li th cnh tranh ln hay khng?. Cu hi ny nhc nh bn hy xem cng ty ny lm n trong nhm ngnh ngh no, kh nng cnh tranh vi cc

ngnh ngh khc ra sao? Kh nng cnh tranh vi cc cng ty trong ngnh th no? Quy tc s 1 khuyn bn nn tm hiu ngay cc cng ty ang ng u hoc trong nhm ng u ngnh. V d ni n thy sn ti TT Vit Nam th HVG ni ln l mt cng ty u ngnh. Ni n ngnh sn xut cc sn phm nha th khng th khng nhc n NTP hay BMP. Cc trang web thng k v chng khon cng c tng hp theo ngnh. Gip ch rt nhiu cho cc bn. - Cu hi 3 : Cng ty c c qun l tt hay khng?. y l mt cu hi ht sc quan trng m bn phi tr li. Qun tr ca cng ty quyt nh n s thnh bi ca cng ty . Cc ng thi ca ban qun tr i vi c ng ca cng ty cng ht sc quan trng. Mt cng ty khng quan tm n quyn li ca c ng th sm hay mun cng tht bi. Ti th trng Vit Nam, bn c th d dng nhn thy u l cng ty c qun tr tt. Chc mi ngi vn nh v cu kt lm gi gia hi ng qun tr VTV vi c ng ln, v cc c ng AAA lm gi c kt hp CT HQT hay gn y c v c phiu DVD. C th chng ta rt kh khn trong vic nh gi nng lc ca Hi ng Qun Tr. Nhng ch t chng ta cng nn quan tm n Bo Co Thng Nin (ci ny rt t cng ty nim yt trn sn thc hin), i hp i Hi C ng, Thng Xuyn theo di cc ng thi mua bn ca thnh vin HQTv..vTi cha thy ch tch hay thnh vin HQT ca VNM, HAG,SSI ng k bn c phiu trong nhng nm va qua. - Cu hi 4 : Bin an ton v gi c phiu ca cng ty ny nh th no?. tr li cu hi ny th vic u tin bn nn lm l theo di bin ng gi ca c phiu cng ty ny hin ti v c trong qu kh. Sau l kt hp vi vic phn tch cc ch s c bn hin ti ca cng ty trong nm hin ti v k hoch di hn 5 nm ca cng ty c th tnh ton cho mnh mc gi mong mun. Vic ny kt hp vi phn tch k thut th qu l tuyt vi. Bc 2 : Cc ch s ti chnh c bn ca mt cng ty 1. T sut li nhun trn vn u t ( ROE) 2. T l tng trng doanh thu 3. T l tng trng li nhun trn mi c phiu (EPS) 4. T l tng trng gi tr s sch trn mi c phiu (BVPS) 5. Cc khon n ngn hn v di hn Mt s lu : - hiu cc ch s ny th c rt nhiu ngun chng ta tham kho online trn mng t cng thc tnh cho n ngha ca n. Tuy nhin ngun tin cy nht vn l chng ta da trn BO CO TI CHNH NM KIM TON ca cng ty t tnh ton. - Ti nhn mnh n t l tng trng tc l cc ch s ny ti nm ti chnh phi c t l tng trn 10% so vi nm trc. Hoc bn c th theo di qu trnh tng ca cc ch s trong 5 nm tr li y th mi c th bit c cng ty tng trng nh th no. C nhiu cng ty tng vn lin tc nhng t l li nhun khng tng theo tng ng. Ti TTCK Vit Nam khi cc doanh nghip vn cn non tr th chng ta cng kh i hi t l tng trng cao v EPS. Bn c th nhn thy khi ngn hng l mt minh chng r rt ( ACB,STB,EIB). REE cng l mt v d in hnh. T mt cng ty bluechip qua tng vn nhiu ln nhng li nhun khng h ci thin. V gi c phiu REE by gi th cc bn cng bit ri.

- Cc khon n khng phi iu g xu xa. Doanh nghip m c vay n nhiu cng l mt doanh nghip ng ch . Vn l kh nng tr n ra sao. Cc bn phi c bit theo di nhng chnh sch kinh t v m, th trng hng ha th gii xem n nh hng nh th no i vi ngnh ngh m doanh nghip ang hot ng. V d nh hin ti cc doanh nghip BS rt kh khn trong ngn hn v thm ch c trung hn ( nu nh nh nc khng c chnh sch mi h tr ). i km vi cc doanh nghip ny th cc doanh nghip thp v xi-mng cng v ly. Cn ngnh cao su t nhin th ang bay cao nh hng li v vic gi cao su th gii tng mnh trong thi gian qua. Tuy nhin c nhng lu v thc tin u t ti TTCK VN - C nn chi c phiu c lm gi khng?. Mt cu hi rt th v bi l trn tt ca chng ta c rt nhiu v lm gi c phiu. Theo ti l vn nn chi nhng phi c bit cn thn v khng bao gi dng ton b s tin ca mnh u t vo nhng c phiu nh vy. Ch ti a 30% ti khon ca bn thi nh. Ti khuyn ngh bn vn nn kt hp c phng php chn c phiu theo Quy tc s 1 trn quyt nh u t. Vn c nhng c phiu tt c lm gi y. Ti sao li khng chi nh? Tuy nhin hy chn nhng cp c thanh khon kh tr ln, khi lng giao dch TB 10 phin lin tip phi trn 50k c phiu i vi penny stock, trn 100k c phiu i vi dng mid-cap. - Cut loss cng vic khng mun lm vn phi lm. Vn ny c th ni l hu nh ai cng mc phi. Ni mi ri, nhiu kinh nghim xng mu ri sao vn c sai lm trong vic cut loss. Bn nn tp i din vi vic mnh sai. Cc bn v ti sai lm v chc s vn c nhng sai lm trong tng lai. Vic ny l bnh thng ngay vi c nhng nh u t v i nh Buffet. Vn l chng ta phi khc phc hu qu ngay khi ta nhn thy sai lm ch ng n nghim trng hn. c bit lu khi bn dng margin, hay cut loss ( hay t nht phi cut phn margin) khi th trng xung gi 2 phin lin tip. - Ti b l tu ri phi tm mi cch ln tu thi. Nh cc bn cng bit cm tin trong uptrend xon hn nhiu so vi cm c trong downtrend.Nhiu ngi l tu ang rt xon. Hy qun n i bn . Ch mt con sng khc. Chng ta u t c i ch c u t vo mt con sng ri t b th trng u. ng t a mnh vo tnh th nguy him khi c c gng lao vo mua c phiu sau khi chng kin vi phin tng trn lin tip v rt c th lc chng ta ln c tu th on tu ch cn ai. - Hng phm-Hng nng- C phin n 300%...x..y..z. Bn s gp nhiu bng rn biu ng trn ngp cc din n chng khon khi th trng tng im. T m vo xem cng l nguy him ri. Hnh ng theo m khng suy ngh th li cng nguy him hn. Nn nh rng nhng ngi m bn khng quen bit, thm ch nhng ngi c giao tip vi bn hay ngay c Broker qun l ti khon ca bn cng c th khin bn trng tay. Nu bn khng c ngun thng tin ng tin cy c kim chng nhiu ln th bn ch nn tin vo danh mc c la chn theo Quy tc s 1 ca mnh. - n by ti chnh ( margin ) v Bn Khng ( Shortsell)hy lun tm cch trnh xa. y l nhn mnh cui cng ca ti trong cc lu v thc tin u t trn TT Vit Nam. Ti phi dng cm t TM CCH TRNH XA v n c ging nh nghin heroin vy. Chng kin tn mt tc hi ca n ri m vn c mun th. Ch n khi sp cht ( chy ti khon ) mi bit l mnh khng nn s vo. Ni a vy thi ch cc cng c margin hay

shortsell cng c tc dng gip lm giu nhanh chng. Nhng chng ta nu ang level mi tham gia th trng th tuyt i khng nn s dng. Ch khi chng ta c nhiu kinh nghim, tri qua nhiu thng trm ca th trng, bit r c lc no nn ra nn vo, hc thuc lng bi hc cut loss v bit v Phn Tch K Thut th mi nn dng th.

5 li cn trnh khi u t nm 2012 28/01/2012 | 05:07 B qua vic ti cn bng t trng, ch u t mt loi c phiu duy nht c th l by nhn chm cc i gia lt sng. 1. n theo thnh tu trong qu kh Theo Erik Carter, chuyn gia phn tch v chin lc ti Financial Finesse, nu ra quyt nh da vo kt qu tt p qua cc nm c, bn rt c th phi i mt vi ri ro. Chng hn, vo nhng nm 90 ti M, ngi ta cho rng c phiu tng trng v cng ngh s thnh hnh do doanh thu 2 nhm ny tng gp i sut thi gian di trc . Thm ch, mt s nh phn tch cn mong ch thi i kinh t mi, ni khi nim sn phm, li nhun khng cn quan trng bng c click chut trn nhng trang web. Tht khng may, li tin on cui cng li sai v doanh thu nhm c phiu trn lm gii lt sng thua l ti na vn giai on nm 2000-2002. Khng ch ring chng khon, cc nh u t cn cnh gic khi da vo nhng bn bo co p mt v tin nh trt nc cho lnh vc sinh li khc nh tri phiu, vng, bt ng sn. 2. C gng d on hng i th trng Trn l thuyt, vic phn tch ng hng th trng s gip cc nh u t kim "m". Thc t tm ra nhng d on thng d lm hn ng dng chng vo chin lc u t. Khng nhng th, nhiu nhn nh sai cn lm ri lon dng chy ngun vn v tm l ngi chi. Tuy vy, ngy cng nhiu chuyn gia thi nhau d bo hng i th trng v sn sng kim li ngay trn nhng phn tch . Warren Buffett tng tuyn b: Mi ngi cn ngng ngay vic phng on tng lai, khng ch ring th trng chng khon hay cc mc li sut, m cn ton ngnh kinh t, thm ch l c kt qu bu c. 3. Ch u t vo mt loi duy nht Nguyn tc bt k nh u t no cng thuc lng l a dng ha danh mc nhm phn tn ri ro. Tuy vy, sai lm ln nht hu ht ngi chi vn mc phi l chi qu nhiu tin (khong 10-15% t trng danh mc) vo c phiu cng ty h. Thc t, mt m chng khon c th mt im trong khi ton th trng tng im. Do , dn lt sng nn mua t nht 20 loi khc nhau hoc u t qua cc qu

i chng, qu chuyn i kim sot thua l. Mt khc, sau khi a dng ha chng khon, ngi mua c th hng ti lnh vc khc nh tri phiu, ngoi t hoc bt ng sn, th trng hng ha... 4. Pht l chi ph Hai vn c bn nhng tc ng ln n li nhun tng lai l chi ph v doanh thu. Cc tay chi c phiu thng qua qu i chng cn lu v chi ph qun l, t vn cng cc ph ph i km. Mt nghin cu ti M da trn 248 qu cht lng chun cho thy, trong 10 nm ch c 4 qu thng bo li nhun tt, hu ht cc qu cn li nhn kt qu kinh doanh t hn mc trung bnh h tng c. 5. Qun ti cn bng t trng Nguyn tc quan trng bt c ai trong gii bun c phiu cng ghi nh, l bm cht chin lc u t v thng xuyn ti cn bng t trng danh mc. Nu bn d nh phn b vn 60% cho c phiu, 40% tri phiu, nhng sau mt thi gian mua - bn, tnh th o chiu thnh 40% c phiu 60% tri phiu, bn cn thay i a t trng v mc cn bng 60-40 ban u. iu ny gip bn thm ng lc mun bn c phiu ngay khi c c hi v thng xuyn kim tra t trng danh mc.

Cu 4: Cch tnh ch s VN Index ? Theo Anh/Ch vic s dng cc ch s trn hin ang b nhng hn ch g ? ngh hng khc phc ? Ch so chng khoan Viet Nam: Hin ti, VNI Index ang c tnh theo phng php Bnh qun Pascher, cn c vo gi th trng ti mt thi im ca tt c cc c phiu c nim yt trn SGD chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh vi quyn s l s chng khon nim yt ca cng ty so vi thi im ban u. Cng thc tnh nh sau: V du tai phien th 1: Ngay 5/09/2000 ta co ket qua giao dch au tien. Ten cong Ky Gia thc So lng co Gia tr th ty hieu hien phan trng C ien REE 16.000 15 trieu cp 240.000 trieu lanh Cap VLVT SAM 17.000 12 trieu cp 204.000 trieu

VN index =

P1ixQ1i P0ixQ0i

(1) ( 2)

(1) : Tong gia tr th trng tai thi iem tnh toan. (2) : Tong gia tr th trng tai thi iem goc.

P1i : Gia ca giao dch thc te cua co phan cong ty i Q1i , Q0i : So lng co phan cong ty i P0i : Gia ca co phan cong ty i tai thi iem goc. VN index =

(16000x15tr) (17000x12tr) x100 100 iem (16000x15tr) (17000x12tr)

Phien th 2: Ngay 9/09/2000 ta co ket qua khp vi gia: Co phan cua REE la 16.300 ong. Co phan cua SAM la 17.200 ong.

VNindex =

(16300 x15tr ) (17200 x12 tr ) 450 .900 x100 x100 101,55 iem (16000 x15tr ) (17000 x12 tr ) 444 .000

Nh vay sau phien th 2 th Ch so chng khoan Index tang 1,55 iem va tang 1,55%. - Phng php Pascher l phng php thng k c s dng kh ph bin, tuy nhin n c nhc im cn bn l nhng thnh t c quyn s ln c tc ng chi phi n s thay i ca ch s. Do , ch s VNI Index s c xu hng phn nh bin ng ca nhng c phiu c tng gi tr nim yt ln hn l phn nh s thay i ca ton th trng. Mt khc, ti Vit Nam, s lng c phiu lu hnh c tnh c nhng c phiu khng thc s t do tham gia vo giao dch th trng nh c phiu ang c nm gi bi hi ng qun tr, cc c ng chin lc, Nh nc, ... Do vy VN-Index khng hon ton phn nh chnh xc c s vn ng ca th trng. 2. CH S VN-30 Ch s VN30 ra i vi mc tiu cung cp cho NT mt ch bo tt hn, nhng thng tin chi tit hn, khc phc nhng nhc im c bn ca VNI Index, xy dng nhng ch s c th giao dch c v tng cng s hi nhp quc t ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam khi p dng y hn nhng thng l quc t trong tnh ton cc ch s. VN30 vn c tnh ton da theo phng php thng k Pascher, tuy nhin, vic la chn cu phn ca ch s v cch tnh ton ch s c nhng thay i cn bn sau: 2.1. Chn r chng khon a vo tnh ton Vi vic tham kho cc thng l quc t, 30 c phiu thnh phn ca VN-30 c la chn theo cc bc nh sau: Bc 1: Sng lc tt c cc c phiu ang nim yt theo gi tr vn ha ca tt c cc c phiu nim yt: Chn 50 c phiu c gi tr vn ha trung bnh ngy trong 6 thng ln nht.

Ti hu ht cc th trng chng khon trn th gii hin nay, mt ch s c tnh ton cho mt nhm cc c phiu ln nht, c tnh thanh khon ln nht thng c quan tm theo di nht v bin ng ca ch s ny c coi l i din cho din bin chung ca ton th trng nh Dow Jones Industrial Average-Dow 30 hay S&P 500 (M); Nikkei 225 (Nht); FTSE 100 (Anh); Hang Seng Index (Hng Kong, 46 c phiu) Bc 2: Sng lc v t l c phiu t do chuyn nhng thc t so vi tng s c phiu nim yt t l free float (f) Nu f 5%: loi b khi r chn Nu 5% < f 10%: loi b khi r chn nu c phiu khng thuc nhm 10 c phiu c gi tr vn ha th trng ln nht (trong bc 1) Nu f > 10%: xt bc tip theo Hin nay, cc ch s hng u trn th gii u c s iu chnh cho t l t do chuyn nhng (free float) ca cc m c phiu cu phn nh nhm ch s Standard & Poor (nh S&P 500 ca M, S&P/ASX 200 ca c hay S&P/TSX 60 ca Canada) hay FTSE (nh Straits Times ca Singapore hay FTSE KLCI ca Malaysia). Bc 3: Sng lc thanh khon ca c phiu: Chn ra 40 c phiu c gi tr giao dch bnh qun ngy trong 6 thng cao nht. Trong gm: 30 c phiu nm trong danh mc chnh thc ca r 10 c phiu d phng Cch tnh ton mt s ch s cng theo phng php ny nh ch s AEX ca th trng chng khon H Lan hay S&P/TSX 60 Capped ca Canada (phin bn iu chnh t l gii hn gi tr vn ha ca ch s S&P/TSX 60). 2.2. iu chnh quyn s Pascher trnh tnh trng c c phiu chim t trng qu ln trong nhm 30 c phiu, t trng ca tng c phiu trong r s c gii hn 10%, tc l t trng vn ha ca mt c phiu so vi tng vn ha 30 c phiu ti a l 10%. Con s 10% c la chn da trn thng k d liu qu kh t 1/1/2009 30/6/2011, ca 30 c phiu thuc r ch s c tnh ra 6 thng/1 ln. D liu thng k cho thy c 99,7% c phiu c t trng nm trong khong (trung bnh +/- 3*SD, SD l lch chun ca d liu). Theo phng php thng k, t trng ti a vo khong 11 12%, do , con s 10% c la chn tnh ton.

2.3. Cng thc tnh VN-30

Vic la chn cc c phiu, cc t l ; s c thc hin nh k 6 thng/ln vo thng 1 v thng 7 hng nm theo nhng tiu ch nht nh v do mt hi ng chuyn trch m nhim.

4. NHNG VN XUNG QUANH VIC TNH TON VN30 Mc d VN30 Index khc phc c mt s nhc im ca VNI Index hin ti, tuy nhin, chng ti nhn thy vic thc hin tnh ton ch s ny vn cn c hai vn sau: 4.1. La chn r 30 c phiu Chng ti nhn thy c 2 vn cha xut hin trong d liu lch s, tuy nhin c th nh hng n vic tnh ton ch s: - C c phiu khng thuc top 50 (theo bc 1) nhng li c s lng c phiu t do chuyn nhng chim t trng ln so vi th trng. - Vic sng lc bc 2 c th loi i mt s lng ln hn 10 c phiu dn n vic khng cn 40 c phiu s dng bc 3. V vy, chng ti ng vi quan im ca Tin s Tn Tch Qu - Ph gim c Trung tm Nghin cu khoa hc v o to chng khon ti Hi tho gii thiu VN-30 ngy 15/9 ti H

Ni, v vic u tin chn lc theo t l free float. Chng ti cho rng, thay v sng lc bc 1 theo gi tr vn ha ca tt c cc c phiu nim yt, top 50 c phiu c gi tr vn ha bnh qun ngy trong 6 thng tnh cho s c phiu t do chuyn nhng ln nht s c la chn, tc l thc hin sng lc theo bc 2 trc, sau chn ra 50 c phiu c gi tr ln nht. 4.2. T trng c phiu trong tnh ton Theo thng k ca HOSE xy dng VN30 Index, c n 99,7% c phiu c t l c (t trng vn ha) nm trong khong (trung bnh t trng +/- 3*SD), tc l hu ht cc c phiu c t trng mc di 11 12%. Do , theo quy lut s ln, chng ti cho rng, khng cn thit gii hn t l c mc 10%.

Cu 5: Anh/Ch hiu g v chng khon phi sinh lin h n TTCK VN ? Cc nghip v ti chnh phi sinh l sn phm tt yu ca s pht trin ngy cng su, rng v a dng ca th trng ti chnh. S bin ng kh lng ca gi c hng ho, li sut, t gi trn th trng l nhng nguyn nhn gy ra ri ro cho cc nh u t trong cc phi v mua, bn. hn ch thp nht nhng ri ro thua l c th xy ra, cc nghip v ti chnh phi sinh c hnh thnh, thc cht l nhng hp ng ti chnh m gi tr cu n ph thuc vo mt hp ng mua bn c s (hay cn gi l chnh phm). n nay, trn th trng ti chnh quc t nghip v ti chnh phi sinh pht trin rt mnh vi cc nghip v phi sinh rt a dng v th trng phi sinh ng vai tr quan trng trong h thng ti chnh ton cu. S d n pht trin thnh cng nh vy, l do s dng nghip v ny em li li ch cho cc thnh vin th trng. Trn th trng c th phn ra thnh 3 loi thnh vin: Ngi u t, ngi u c, ngi c li. S dng nghip v ti chnh phi sinh u mang li li ch cho 3 loi thnh vin ny: Ngi u t phi i din vi nhng ri ro do bin ng gi c ca cc sn phm chnh, h phi s dng nghip v phi sinh gim thiu hoc loi b ri ro; i vi ngi u c li mun nh cuc trn nhng bin ng gi c ca sn phm chnh, h dng nghip v ny nh mt n by c bit; i vi ngi c li ( thc hin li nhun m khng c ri ro) bng cch s dng chnh lch gi gia cc th trng ti chnh khc nhau, h s dng rt hiu qu cc nghip v phi sinh hng chnh lch gi. Di y xin cp n mt s nghip v phi sinh chun v khng chun hay cn gi l cng c phi sinh c lp v cng c phi sinh c gn thm hin ang c giao dch ph bin trn th trng ti chnh quc t. 1. Mt s cng c phi sinh c lp: Hp ng mua bn trc(cn gi l cng c k hn): L mt cng c ti chnh phi sinh n gin. l mt tho thun mua hoc bn mt ti sn ( hng ho hoc cc ti sn ti chnh) ti mt thi im trong tng lai vi mt gi xcnh trc. c im ca hp ng ny l:

Thng thng hp ng ny c thc hin gia cc t chc ti chnh (TCTC)vi nhau, hoc gia TCTC vi cc khch hng l doanh nghip phi ti chnh (cc hp ng ny thng c k kt song phng). Trong hp ng ny ngi mua c gi l ngi gi th trng v (long position), ngi bn c gi l ngi gi th on v (short position). Hp ng ny ch c thc hin khi o hn: n thi im o hn ngi gi v th on v phi thc hin bn ti sn cho ngi gi v th trng v v nhn mt khon tin t ngi mua vi mc gi c nh trc trong hp ng, cho d vo thi im gi th trng ca ti sn c cao hn hoc thp hn gi xc nh trong hp ng. Nu gi th trng cao hn gi hp ng th ngi gi v th trng v s c li (c gi tr dng), cn ngi gi v th on v b gi tr m; v ngc li.

Hp ng mua bn trong tng lai: l mt cng c ti chnh phi sinh, tng t nh hp ng mua bn trc, ch khc c mt s im sau: Hp ng mua bn trong tng lai thng c k kt v thc hin hp ng thng qua mt mi gii trn th trng chng khon; v ngi mua v ngi bn thng khng quen bit nhau, do vy n v mi gii thng a ra mt s cc tiu chun cho nhng hp ng ny. Hin nay, nhng th trng chng khon mua bn hp ng trong tng lai l Hi ng mu dch Chicago - Chicago Board of Trade( CBOT), S thng mai ChicagoChicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) v S giao dch cc hp ng tng lai London. Cc loi hng ho c giao dch trn th trng chng khon mua bn hp ng trong tng lai gm, heo, b ,ng, len ...., sn phm ti chnh gm, ch s chng khon, ngoi t, tri phiu cng ty, tri phiu chnh ph. Ngy giao hng khng c xc nh mt cch chnh xc nh hp ng mua- bn trc, m c qui nh theo thng v khong thi gian ca thng phi giao. Vn phng th trng chng khon (ngi mi gii) xc nh khi lng, cht lng ca hng ho giao dch, cch giao hng, gi hp ng, v cng c th xc nh lun gi tr hp ng mua bn tng lai c th thay i trong mt ngy. Ngi mua, bn phi tr ph hoa hng cho ngi mi gii, v gi rao bn c xc nh trn sn giao dch chng khon. C hai loi thng nhn trn sn giao dch: Th nht l nhng ngi mi gii n hoa hng, h s thc hin mua bn theo lnh ca nh u t v tnh hoa hng; th 2 l ngi t u t. trnh nhng ri ro khi thc hin hp ng mua bn trong tng lai, do ngi mua, hoc ngi bn tho lui khi hp ng v s bin ng gi trn th trng bt li cho mnh, hoc do n thi im thanh ton, ngi mua khng c kh nng ti chnh. Vn phng chng khon phi a ra nhng qui nh v yu cu d tr ti thiu i vi ngi k hp ng tng lai vi nh mi gii. Khon tin d tr ny c gi ti mt ti khon ca ngi u t m ti vn phng chng khon. V d: Gi s vo thng 3 bn gi cho nh mi gii ca bn ti CBOT, v yu cu ng ta mua cho bn 100 lng vng vo thi im thng 7. Nhng s vic g s xy ra sau lnh ca bn:

- Bc 1, ngi mi gii s chuyn lnh ca bn cho mt i din ti CBOT. y lnh ny s do mt ngi a tin chuyn n cho mt thng nhn ca bn giao dch. Ngi ny s c tm gi tt nht trn th trng v ra du hiu bng tay cho cc thng nhn bit rng c ngi mun mua mt hp ng vng tng lai vi gi nh vy. - Bc 2, Nu c mt thng nhn (bn bn) chp nhn vi mc gi v thi gian bn nh vy, th l kt thc thng thuyt.Sau ngi ta s thng bo cho bn bit thng qua ngi mi gii ca bn l hp ng oc k kt. Kt thc mt hp ng tng lai, him khi c din ra nh k kt ban u, m thng xy ra s hon i trong sut thi gian o hn: Nu nh mt ngi u t th trng v i vi mt hp ng tng lai mua vng vo thng 7, nhng vo ngy 6/3, anh ta c th kt thc v tr ny vo ngy 20/4 bng cch chn v tr on v i vi hp ng bn vng vo thng 7. Vo ngy 6/3 nu mt ngi v tr on v i vi hp ng tng lai vo thng 7 anh ta c th kt thc hp ng ny vo ngy 20/4 bng cch chn v tr trng v vo thng 7. Trong c 2 trng hp tin li hay l ca ngi u t phn nh nhng thay i ca gi c gia ngy 6/3 vi ngy 20/4. Trong hot ng ngn hng, cc ngn hng s dng nhiu nghip v ny trong kinh doanh chng khon v qun l danh mc u t phng chng ri ro do bin ng li sut trong tng lai. hn ch ri ro bin ng li sut trong tng lai, nhn chung i hi cc ngn hng phi gi v th trn th trng trong tng lai i nghch vi v th hin thi trn th trng giao ngay. Bi vy, mt ngn hng c k hoch mua tri phiu to th trng trn th trng giao ngay c th bo v c gi tr ca nhng tri phiu ny bng vic k hp ng bn tri phiu trn th trng tng lai to v th on.nu ngay sau , gi tri phiu gim trn th trng giao ngay, th s c mt khon li nhun c b p xut hin t th trng tng lai v iu ny gip cho ngn hng ti thiu ho tn tht gy ra do bin ng li sut. Hp ng quyn chn (quyn chn mua hoc bn): L mt sn phm ti chnh phi sinh rt c a chung. Hp ng quyn chn c phiu c thc hin ln u tin ti M vo nm 1973, t th trng ny pht trin tng vt v ngy nay c thc hin trn khp th trng ti chnh th gii. Hp ng quyn chn c thc hin vi cc hot ng mua, bn: C phiu, ch s th trng chng khon, ngoi t, cng c n, cc hp ng mua bn tng lai v hng ho. C hai loi hp ng quyn chn: Hp ng quyn chn mua (call option)v hp ng quyn chn bn (put option). Hp ng quyn chn mua l tho thun cho php ngi cm hp ng c quyn mua sn phm t mt nh u t khc vi mc gi nh sn vo ngy o hn ca hp ng. Cn hp ng quyn bn l tho thun cho php ngi cm hp ng c quyn bn sn phm cho mt nh u t khc vi mc gi nh sn vo ngy o hn ca hp ng. c im ca hp ng la chn: Khc vi hp ng mua bn trc v hp ng mua bn tng lai hp ng quyn chn khng bt buc cc bn phi giao sn phm. Hp ng ch quy nh quyn giao hay nhn, m khng bt buc thc hin ngha v ca mnh. Ngi mua quyn c th: Thc hin quyn, hay bn quyn cho mt ngi mua khc; hay khng thc hin quyn . c quyn ny, khi k hp ng, ngi cm hp ng phi tr quyn ph ; gi trong hp ng c gi l gi thc hin hay l gi n (Strike price); ngy nh trong hp ng gi l ngy o hn hay hy thc hin.

C hai kiu thc hin hp ng quyn chn, l thc hin hp ng quyn chn theo kiu M v theo kiu chu u. Theo kiu M l thc hin quyn chn vo bt k thi im no trc ngy o hn. Theo kiu chu u l thc hin quyn chn ch trong ngy o hn. Hin nay trn cc th trng chng khon hu ht thc hin theo kiu M. V d: Mt ngi u t mua 100 c phiu IBM di hnh thc hp ng la chn kiu chu u vi gi nh trc l 100 USD/1 c phiu, ngy o hn l 2 thng v quyn ph l 5 USD. Gi s n ngy o hn gi c phiu c phiu thp hn 100 USD, th nh u t c th s t chi khng mua v chu mt 500 USD quyn ph (5x100). Trong trng hp gi cao hn nh u t s thc hin hp ng. Mt im ng ch l: trong khi ngi mua hp ng la chn call mong mun gi ca sn phm hp s tng ln trong ngy o hn th ngi mua hp ng la chn Put li hy vng gi xung. Nu cao hn gi nh trc h s t chi quyn bn v chu mt quyn ph. Tt nhin s t chi hay khng t chi quyn khi gi ngy o hn cao (hay thp) hn gi n s c cc nh u t tnh ton trn c s mc chnh lch gia gi nh trc vi gi ngy o hn v quyn ph. Cc hp ng quyn chn thng c giao dch trn th trng chng khon hoc th trng phi chnh thc. Hin nay, ch yu cc hp ng quyn chn c mua bn rng ri ti vn phng th trng chng khon( Chicago board Option ExchangeCBOE, Philadelphia ExchangePHLX, The American Stock ExchangeAMEX, The Pacific Stock ExchangePSE, The New York Stock ExchangeNYSE...). Vic mua bn di hnh thc hp ng chn ti cc vn phng th trng chng khon c nhiu kha cnh ging nh mua bn hp ng tng lai. Vn phng th trng chng khon phi xc nh r cc iu kin, mc , thi gian o hn v n nh gi ca hp ng quyn chn c mua bn trn th trng ca h.V gim ri ro ca vic thc hin hp ng, lc mua sn phm (c phiu chng hn), ngi u t m ti khon d tr bt buc vi ngi mi gii ca h, mc d tr tu thuc vo loi hng ho c giao dch v tu vo tng tnh hung c th.ng thi, cng c nhng quy nh kim sot th trng hp ng quyn chn, nh nhng qui nh kim sot ng x ca thng nhn, ca nhng ngi to lp th trng. Nghip v hon i: l mt hp ng trong hai bn tho thun trao i ngha v thanh ton. Thng thng giao dch ny bao gm cc thanh ton li, v trong mt s trng hp l thanh ton n gc. Giao dch hon i li sut v hon i ngoi t l sn phm ca th trng phi tp trung (OTC) c kt hp trc tip gia hai ngn hng, hoc gia ngn hng vi khch hng. Theo khng c mu chun ca hp ng giao dch hon i v cc hp ng kiu ny s khc nhau v mt s ni dung. Trc khi cc giao dch hon i xut hin, bn vay v bn cho vay thng b gii hn li sut c nh hoc li sut th ni, cp vn hoc cho vay trn c s tin mt. Nh u t hoc ngn hng s gp phi s khng tng xng v li sut gia ti sn c v ti sn n. V d cng ty vay li sut c nh , nhng li u t vo th trng li sut th ni, chc chn s b l khi li sut gim do khng c khon tng thu nhp t ti sn c li sut th ni. Giao dch hon i c to ra x l nhng s khng tng xng ny, to cho ngn hng, doanh nghip kim sot tt hn cc dng lu chuyn tin t ca mnh. Khi mi xut hin cng c ny vo u thp k 1980, cc ngn hng dn xp cc giao dch hon i cho cc bn c th c nhu cu cn b sung cho nhau. Cc ngn hng thu c ph do lm i din trong cc giao dch ny. Th trng cng pht trin, ngn hng tham gia vi vai tr ch

cht, thc hin nhng b tr tt c cc trng thi vi cc bn ngang nhau v i nghch. Thu nhp c to ra t s chnh lch gia li sut hon i thanh ton v nhn c, hoc ph tr trc gin xp. 2. Cc cng c phi sinh khng chun (c gn thm): Nhng nm gn y, trn th trng ti chnh sut hin nhiu cng c ti chnh phi sinh khc c thit k da trn nhng nguyn l c bn ca cc cng c ti chnh quyn chn (call, put) v hp ng mua bn tng lai, gi l hp ng la chn Exotics, hay cn gi l nhng cng c phi sinh khng chun. Cc v d sau cso th minh ho phn no v cng c phi sinh khng chun: V d 1: V tri phiu ca Standard Oils Nm 1986 cng ty Standard Oils pht hnh loi tri phiu m ngi mua khng nhn c li sut, nhng n ngy o hn ngi mua 1000 USD tri phiu s nhn c mt s tin ph tri da trn gi ca xng du lc . S tin ph tri ny bng tch s ca 170 vi mc gi du tng vt mc 25 USD/thng, tuy nhin mc gi vt ln khng qu 40 USD/thng. Tc li tc nhn c ti a l 2.250 USD vi 1000 USD tri phiu. Trng hp gi du khng tng th ngi mua ch nhn c gc tri phiu khi n ngy o hn. V d 2:Tri phiu ICON Nm 1985, t chc ngn hng Banker Trust pht hnh mt loi tri phiu mang tn ICONs (Index currency notes). Li tc thu c t tri phiu ny ph thuc vo t gi vi ngoi t. Ngn hng tha thun trc vi ngi mua tri phiu 2 mc t gi X1 v X2 (X1>X2). Nu n ngy o hn, t gi ln hn X1 th ngi mua tri phiu s nhn c ton b s tin nh tho thun trc, nu t gi nh hn X2 ngi ch tri phiu khng nhn c mt ng no ngoi tin gc. Nu t gi trong khong X1 v X2 s nhn c mt phn nh li tc no . V d 3: Hp ng la chn trc trong mt khong nh Hp ng loi ny thng c s dng trong mua bn ngoi t. Mt hp ng mua bn trc khong nh l quyn chn mua ( hoc bn) trong gii hn dao ng t gi nh trc. Gi s ngy 8/5/2005 mt cng ty Hoa k s cn ng bng anh trong vng 90 ngy na. Cng ty ny c th k mt hp ng mua trc khong nh bng anh quanh mc t gi 1,6056 trong 90 ngy na. Theo hp ng ny, t gi c t dao ng quanh mc 1,6056 (t mc 1,5700 n 1,6400). Nu n ngy o hn t gi nh hn 1,570 cng ty s tr theo mc t gi 1,5700; nu gi nm trong khong 1,570-1,6400, cng ty s tr theo thi gi; nu thi gi ln hn 1,6400 cng ty s tr bng mc 1,6400. Hin nay trn th trng ti chnh xut hin rt nhiu cc loi cng c phi sinh khng chun, nh hp ng la chn bt u trong tng lai, l loi hp ng ta phi tr ngay, nhng ch bt u ti thi im no trong tng lai; hp ng la chn hn hp l hp ng la chn da trn cc hp ng la chn. C 4 loi hp ng hn hp chnh: Call da trn Call, Put a trn Call, Put da trn Put, Call da trn Put; hp ng la chn c do; giao dch hon i li sut cho Cross Currency Swap - CCS l loi nghip v phi sinh c bn gip cho khch hng c kh nng phng nga ri ro t gi v li sut. C th m t qui trnh nh sau:

Bn A v bn B k hp ng CCS vi ni dung nh sau: + S tin 10 triu USD, + T gi 1 USD = 15.800 VND. + Ngy hiu lc 1/6/2005; + Ngy o hn 1/6/2010 + Lch trnh dng tin: 3 thng mt ln, chia u sut thi hn 5 nm + Li sut: Bn A tr 8% trn 158 t VND, Bn B tr Libor 3 thng trn 10 triu USD. nh k tr li 3 thng mt ln. Hp ng CCS c th c hoc khng c trao i ban u, nhng nht thit phi c trao i cui cng, hai bn c th tho thun tr li sut c nh hay th ni tuy theo yu cu. S dng tin. (1) Trao i ban u ( t gi 1 USD = 15.800 VND) vo ngy 1/6/2005. Bn A chuyn cho NH ( bn B) 10 triu USD, Bn B chuyn cho Bn A 158 t VND. (2) S trao i cui cng (t gi 1 USD = 15.800 VND) bt u ngy 1/9/2005 c 3 thng 1 ln cho n 1/6/2010. Tng cng c 20 ln trao i. - Bn A chuyn cho bn B 7,9 t VND, Bn B chuyn cho bn A 0,5 triu USD; - Li sut Bn A tr cho Bn B l 8%/nm, Bn B tr cho bn A lai sut Libor 3 thng. Trn thc t cc nc trong khu vc, hp ng CCS nh dng trn rt ph bin v gip cho khch hng phng nga ri ro t gi v li sut. - Hp ng quyn chn li sut chn trn v chn hai u + Quyn chn li sut chn trn ti a : c p dng khi khch hng vay vn theo li sut th ni nhng khng phi tr vt qu mt mc li sut c xc nh trc. n thi im o hn nu li sut thc t vt mc li sut xc nh trc, khch hng ch phi tr li sut theo mc xc nh trc trong hp ng. Trng hp li sut hin thi thp hn li sut xc nh trc khch hng tr theo li sut hin thi. c quyn ny, khch hng phi tr mt mc ph nht nh theo tho thun. + Quyn chn chn hai u, c p dng khi khch hng vay li sut th ni vi mong mun phi tr li sut trong mt khung xc nh trc. - Nghip v tin gi kt hp quyn chn tin t- Dual currency Deposit. Nghip v ny c th c m t nh sau: + Khch hng v TCTD tho thun vi nhau v mt giao dch tin gi thng thng km theo mt hp ng quyn chn, theo n ngy o hn, nu t gi ng tin thp hn (hoc cao hn) t gi tho thun ban u th ngi gi tin s nhn c tin gc v tin li

bng ng tin gi ban u; nu t gi ln hn (hoc thp hn) mc t gi tho thun ban u th ngi gi tin s nhn tin gc v tin li bng ng tin khc theo t gi v loi ng tin do khch hng v TCTD tho thun ban u. + C k hn c nh v thng l ngn hn; + Li sut ca loi tin gi ny c th cao hn li sut tin gi thng thng cng k hn v gn vi quyn chn tin t c th pht sinh ri ro Trn th trng ti chnh Vit nam, cc nghip v phi sinh bt u xut hin khong 5 nm trc y v n nay xut hin nhiu loi cng c phi sinh chun v khng chun ang c thc hin.Tuy nhin, c s php l cc cc nghip v phi sinh cn mang tnh th im v n l, ngoi tr giao dch hon i li sut c qui ch ca NHNN ( Quyt nh sso 1133/2003/Q - NHNN, ngy 30/9/2003 ban hnh km theo qui ch). ng thi s lng cc giao dch cn t khong gn 15 hp ng hon i li sut v mt s t hp ng phi sinh khng chun khc c cho php thc hin( trong s c mt s giao dch cha pht sinh giao dch). C th lit k mt s TCTD c Ngn hng nh nc cho php thc hin: - Ngn hng Citibank thc hin th im hon i li sut gia 2 ng tin t ngy 1/3/2005 n 2/2006. - Ngn hng Standard Chartered chi nhnh ti Vit Nam thc hin hon i li sut cho gia 2 ng tin cho (Cross Currency Swap- CCS) i vi khon vay ngoi t ca khch hng sau khi khch hng vay ngoi t;thc hin cung cp sn phm gn vi ri ro tn dngli sut c cu cho tin gi v giy t c gi, theo li sut ca khch hng c hng s khng c nh m nm trong mt khong giao ng nht nh v ph thuc vo s bin ng ca mt s yu t th trng , nh t gi, li sut, gi sn phm hng ha no ... - Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam, thc hin th im giao dch quyn chn li sut i vi cc khon cho vay hoc i vay trung hn bng USD hoc euro. i tc thc hin giao dch quyn chn li sut l cc doanh nghip hot ng ti Vit Nam, cc NHTM hot ng ti VN c NHNN cho php thc hin th im giao dch quyn chn li sut v cc NH nc ngoi. S gc ca hp ng quyn chn li sut ti a bng 15% vn t c ca NHT&PT. Tng s l hp ng trong thi gian th im khng vt qu 50% mc vn t c ca NH. thi hn hp ng khng qu 5 nm; thc hin nghip v tin gi kt hp quyn chn tin t- Dual currency Deposit; thc hin hon i tin t cho. l vic trao i cc dng tin trong tng lai bng cc ng tin khc nhau. Trong cc giao dch hon i cho thng c vic hon i thanh ton li (c nh hoc th ni) bng mt ng tin sang thanh ton li (c nh hoc th ni) bng mt ng tin khc. S tin gc trong giao dch c th c hon i vo k u (nu c) v k cui, hoc nhiu k trong thi gian hiu lc ca giao dch - NHNT thc hin giao dch hon i li sut km theo iu kin quyn chn vi cc i tc l TCTD hot ng ti Vit Nam v cc php nhn khc hot ng trong nc v nc ngoi, ph hp vi cc qui nh ca php lut. Quyn chn thuc v NHNT l quyn kt thc trc hn hp ng Swap i vi cc khon vay ca BTC. - NH HSBC thc hin giao dch hon i li sut cng dn Daily range accrual, thi hn ca hp ng ti a 5 nm. Theo tho thun hon i ny, khch hng vay cu HSBC s tr

Sibor cng vi phn chnh lch v tng li sut phi tr ny khng vt qu mc li sut cao nht c nh trc. i li HSBC s tr Sibor cng vi phn chnh lch cho nhng ngy li sut Sibor giao ng trong mt khong c nh trc. C th, hp ng ny tho thun gia khch hng vay vn vi thi hn 6 nm li sut th ni. Nu n ngy o hn li sut Sibor khng vt qu mc li sut xc nh trc (4,5%/nm ) th HSBC s tr li sut cho khch hng vi mc li sut (Sibor + 1,1% ). Trng hp vt mc li sut nh trc, th HSBC khng phi tr mc li sut ny. i li, khch hng s tr cho HSBC mc li sut (Sibor + 0,6%), nhng ti a khng vt qu 5,1%/ nm; thc hin giao dch hon i li sut gia 2 ng tin - Thc hin nghip v quyn chn ngoi t (Option ngoi t/ VND): cho php thc hin th im NHTMCP Quc t,), ngn hng NT (8/2005); NHTM c phn Chu, NHT&PT, NHTMCP K thng, NHTMCP Qun i (12/2005). - NH Calyon, citibank, ABN-AMRO thc hin nghip v hon i li sut bt u thc hin trong tng lai (Forward Start Swap) l tho thun tham gia giao dch hon i li sut vo mt ngy c th trong tng lai theo mt mc li sut c nh trc. - Cho php NH TMCP k thng thc hin giao dich hp ng tng lai trn th trng hng ho (9/2004);Vinasin thc hin giao dch hon i ngoi t... Qua thng k trn cho thy, th trng cc cng c ti chnh phi sinh hnh thnh Vit Nam, tuy nhin cn rt nh b v cha ph bin. Nguyn nhn ch yu ca tnh trng ny l do mc pht trin ca th trng tin t, th trng vn cn thp, trn th trng cn thiu vng cc nh u t am hiu k v li ch cng nh k thut tnh ton li nhun t cc loi nghip v ny. Bn cnh cc nh mi gii, cc nh c li cn qu t trn th trng tin t, th trng chng khon thc y cc nh u t tham gia mnh m th trng ny. S km pht trin ca th trng phi sinh l mt thch thc khng nh trong qu trnh hi nhp v m ca th trng ti chnh Vit Nam. Khi m ri ro lun l bn ng ca cc nh u t v ngy cng gia tng trong qu trnh hi nhp, th pht trin th trng cc nghip v phi sinh c xem nh l l chn quan trng hn ch rui ro cu th trng i vi nhng nh u t. V vy pht trin th trng phi sinh l rt cn thit hin nay.