7

RECOGNIZING STATISTICAL SLIPS

he reading of facts presented in mathematical form seems to bother many present day adults. Graphs, tables, and charts are just so many lines and numbers to skip over, if possible. If you dont think so, ask the next person you hear using the word billion to tell you how much it really is. Or if he or she is talking in millions, ask what a million dollars is, what it represents, and what you can do with it. The chances are that he or she has little or no concept of how much a million dollars is or will do. This ignorance of mathematical terms and concepts is quite widespread. As a result, those who present facts to the public through mathematics can easily deceive the average reader. Statistics and charts are manipulated to prove almost anything to the nave consumer. Unless you learn to read mathematical materials critically, you are too at the mercy of the unscrupulous statistician or chart maker. The following is a brief introduction to statistics and a discussion on the most common statistical slips you need to know in order to guard yourself against being mislead by misused statistics. A. What is Statistics? The word statistics has two meanings. When it is used with a plural verb, it refers to information about any phenomenon or activity expressed in numerical form, such as vital statistics, college enrolment figures, and opinion poll percentages. In its singular sense, it denotes the art and science of collecting, presenting, analyzing, and interpreting numerical data. In other words, it is, in the second sense, the tool for us to make the maximum use of quantitative measurements and assessments. The importance of statistics in human affairs is obvious from our tendency to associate facts closely with figures. However, raw, undigested and voluminous figures that are carelessly accumulated are useless and even meaningless. A long list of bus-ticket numbers amassed from tickets found in a dustbin would be of no service to anyone. But figures that are systematically collected and properly analyzed can be used as the basis for rational decisions and conclusions. A table that shows the quantity of bus-tickets of each denomination sold will, for example, help the bus proprietor to decide on whether he should have more buses running short or long distances. Indeed, in an age of science when man tries to be rational, objective and systematic in as many activities as possible, the art and science of statistics is an indispensable analytical tool. A government in conducting the nations affairs has to make much use of statistical analysis. The effectiveness of a government policy or plan depends to large extent on how well the government knows the quantitative aspects of the social, economic and physical conditions of the country. A school building project, for example, would among other things, demand sound statistical analysis of population figures, budget and the quantitative aspects of educational facilities. In the business field, the total dependence of insurance companies on statistical forecasts is well known. But other businessmen also depend on statistics in their prediction
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of sales and costs, their quality control, their production and marketing researches, and their quantitative personnel records. Even a sole proprietor who makes shoes in expectation of demand will note the quantity of each size of shoes that is normally sold, if he does not want to have a big stock of unsalable goods. Research workers engaged in fields that are concerned with quantitative results also rely heavily on statistical analysis. The methods of statistics are used to test, among other things, the quality of animal feeds and other farm materials, the effectiveness of new drugs and other medical developments, and the destructiveness of weapons and military tactics. Even in the literary field, statistics has been used to analyze vocabulary and to settle questions related to disputed authorship. But useful though statistic is, it often misused. Just as the devil can cite Scripture for his purpose, people with vested interest may enforce figures to serve their ends. Advertisements, for instance, abound with misleading statistical statements and reports such as those which begin with statistics prove that and Nine out of ten university scholars use However, sheer ignorance and carelessness may also give rise to statistical blunders. These human weaknesses are the only explanation for some of the quantitative errors in newspapers and magazine articles.

Of course, the way to guard oneself against being misled by misused statistics is not to shun or mistrust all figures but to become conscious of how statistical procedures may be incorrectly used. Among the most common statistical slips that might consciously or unconsciously be made are the following. B. Common Statistical Slips 1. The Deceptive Sample Many statistics are based on a sample of the population. But no statistics is any better than the sample on which it is based. This sample may be too small, or biased by obvious or hidden factors, or deliberately chosen to prove the writers point. Take the case of the Literary Digest poll of 1936 that predicted the presidential election of Alfred Landon. The sample was composed of ten million telephone and Digest subscribers who had been used in a correct presidential prediction in 1932. Such a sample seemed large enough and apparently free from bias. But the people who could afford telephones and magazine subscriptions just werent representative of the American public in 1936. Most Americans were still struggling with the effects of the great depression at the later date. Telephones and magazines were luxuries for many trying to make both ends meet. The sample was economically biased; it reflected the voting preferences of a select group,
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not of the general public, and the prediction was wrong. To yield an accurate statistic, a sample must be representative of the total group. It should be selected by pure chance under circumstances in which every person or thing in the total group has an equal chance of being selected. This is called a random sampling. However, because it involves so great a cross section of the total population, true random sampling is almost prohibitive in time and cost. In its place, a stratified sample composed of a small group possessing those traits characteristic of the general population is commonly used. Public opinion polls, surveys of users of a certain product, sales prediction for a proposed new product, views of magazine readers, and preferences of radio listeners and televiewers are commonly based on this stratified sampling technique. But how do the researches know that the stratified sample is really a random sample of the total population? The truth is, they dont. Their conclusions may be distorted by any of a dozen factors, such as the very questions asked, the emotional reactions of those interviewed to the questions or the interviewer, or the extent to which social prestige or the ego of the respondent is challenged. How accurate, for example, can a survey of such personal matters as income, church attendance, racial discrimination, or wife beating really be? Considering these explanations, it is very important for everyone to look more critically at any statistic based on sampling. Most poll results are apt to be biased, even when they are not deliberately distorted. This bias is likely to be toward reflecting the thinking and actions of the person with better-than-average economic and social status. If you were the interviewer waiting outside a factory, which person would you stopthe surly-looking fellow plowing along with his head down, or the neat, smiling woman walking leisurely homeward? To help you read and interpret statistics based on sampling, we suggest that you ask the writer such questions as: How many people are involved in these data? What kind of people are they? How were they selected? What are some of the factors that may have influenced the results? What do the results prove, if anything? What kind of sense do they make? For example, several years ago, the manufacturer of a popular brand of cigarettes claimed that more doctors smoked his brand than any other. Are doctors better judges of taste, mildness, and other cigarette qualities than any other people? Aside from the fact that we dont know many doctors were sampled, just what does this statistic prove? The implication is, of course, the medical training makes one a better judge of cigarette and more aware of their possible harmful effects. Therefore, if more doctors smoke X brand, it must be better and less harmful than other brands. Only a moments thought will demonstrate that if X is a widely sold brand, it is likely to sell well among most groups, plumbers as well as doctors. Or take the claim of the toothpaste manufacturer that six out of eight people prefer the taste of his product to that of others. Does he tell you how many people were sampled before these results were secured? Usually not, because his researchers probably waited until they found such a result in one small group rather than reporting on the preferences of the entire population sampled. If two toothpastes were being compared, we would expect five out of ten people to prefer Z paste, purely on the basis of chance. Flipping a coin several hundred times is likely to result in half heads and half tails. But in a small sample, the law of probability does not operate in the same fashion. The first ten tosses of your coin may all be heads. Thus, if the surveyors for Z toothpaste took a number of small samples, it is quite possible that they would find one in which the
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28 $175,000 2. The Misleading Average 24 $150,000 What is an average? It is the 20 $125,000 16 $100,000 most common characteristic of a 12 $75,000 relatively large number of people, 8 $50,000 or a point that divides the 4 $25,000 population into two equal halves 0 $0 of haves and have-nots? Or is it the total amount of certain trait divided equally among the entire population? Well, it is and it isnt. Positions It may be any or all of these. The term average is used loosely to describe any of three measures known technically as the mode (the most frequently occurring value in a group of values), the median (or the middle value in an array of values that range from the highest to the lowest), and the mean (or the sum of all values divided by the number of values included). When we discuss such human traits as height and weight, it doesnt matter much which we use, for these characteristics are distributed normally throughout the population. But if we talk about incomes taxes, wattage consumption or divorce rates, it matters a great deal which average is selected. Lets take a case in point. The ABC electronics Company tells us that their average employee earned $ 10,000 last year. Sounds fairly good, doesnt it? But what does this average mean? Was $10,000 the most common salary among the employees? No, because the greatest number of employees earning any one salary, or the mode, is found $7,000. Then what does the $10,000 mean? It must be an average of the salaries paid to the two partners who own the company ($50,000 each); the two engineers ($25,000 each); a technician and a production manager ($14,500 each); two foremen ($10,500 each); and the forty hourly workers who earn about $7,000 per year. All these salaries add up to $480,000, which divided by forty-eight employees averages $10,000. Neat, isnt it? (Would you have thought of adding in the owners shares to raise the average yearly salary?) But the labor union leaders arent likely to use this mean in asking for a better salary scale. They are more apt to use the mode, the point at which most of the employees fall on the scale of $7,000. In this case, the union could also use the median of $7,000 because more than half of the workers earn this amount of or less. Graphically, these data could have been presented somewhat as in Figure 1 (but, of course, no statistician attempting to please the owners of The ABC electronics Company would have used such a method of presenting the facts.) The next time you read something about an average, ask yourself, What averagemean, mode, or median? Or Average of what? Who and what are included here? Here are typical average figures found in a recent publication. Just what do they mean? A leading magazine reports an average of 6.02 hours of televiewing per day in American home. Last years figure is given as 5.81 hours per day. It concludes, The Critical Reading by Parlin Pardede (for FKIP use only) Page 69

Total of Personnels

Total of Salaries

results were the kind they wanted. This may be dishonest reporting of research, but it certainly is rigged to produce the desired results.

Figure 1: Average Yearly Salary--ABC Electronics 40 $250,000 36 $225,000 Company 32 $200,000

glass screen is really taking over. Figure 2: Increase in Unit These figures have an artificial Costs (in %) note on authenticity because of the use 15 of the decimal figures. It sounds more accurate to say 6.02 hours rather than 10 simply 6 hours. But how many homes were involved in this survey? The fine 5 distinctions implied in the decimals are 0 absurd unless the sample was quite 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 large. How was the survey done? By Years whom? By calling on the phone and askin g how many hours a day the TV set was used? Were Figure 3: Increase reliable time-sampling measures used to determine the in Unit Cost (in %) actual amount of televiewing? Are these figures offered 10 by TV manufacturers or broadcasting chains who, 9 8 perhaps, have an ulterior movie? As for monopolizing 7 the televiewers day, how much of a real difference is 6 the .21 or an hour (thirteen minutes)? Is the 5 4 conclusion based on a significant difference? Do these 3 facts add up to anything at all? Do they even indicate a 2 reliable trend? 1 3. Plausible Charts and Graphs In the effort to make mathematical concepts more palatable, or more shocking, writers often employ a pictorial or Figure 4: Increase in Unit Cost (in %) graphic presentation. Like most statistical data, this method can be 10 manipulated to convey almost any desired impression. For example, 7.5 suppose you were a production 5 manager trying to show top 2.5 management why the unit cost of your product had risen in the past decade. 0 You are trying to convince top 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 management that the sales manager is mistaken in opposing a repricing of the Year product. Which of the following charts would you present? Figure 2, 3, or 4? These graphs are all accurate and honest, but there is a great deal of difference in the impression they create. Figures 2 and 4 imply a fairly constant but gradual increase in the unit cost. In Figure 3, the rate of increase seems terrific. The trick, of course, is merely to narrow the horizontal interval in the graph and expand the vertical interval. If you do this, you automatically come up with a startling picture. Push the base line closer together, and your line shoots up. Or to produce the opposite effect, merely lengthen the base line as in Figure 4. What do you want to prove? Pick your own chart.
7576777879808182838485 Year Critical Reading by Parlin Pardede (for FKIP use only) Percentage Page 70 Percentage 0 Percentage

4. Presenting the Facts without a Reference Point. Figure 5: Frozen Food There is another technique of manipulating graph Consumption that isnt quite as obvious but helps to strengthen your data. This is presenting the facts without a reference 1975 point. If the possible range of data and the zero reference point are omitted, it becomes much easier 1970 to prove your point, whatever it may be. Figure 5 is an example of this type of graph. Visually, you are led to believe that frozen food consumption has grown 1967 tremendously in the period from 1967 to 1975. But how much actual increase does this represent? One percent? Ten percent? One hundred percent? There is no way of knowing from the graph. In addition to that, percentages un-accompanied by actual-al numbers may also give miss-leading impressions. To say that 75% of an experimental group found X brand to be better than all other brands, sound very impressive. Nevertheless, the person who asserts this may deliberately leave out the fact that only four people formed the experimental group. Indeed if small groups of Figure 6: Increase in gasoline mile-age people are tested, an experimenter will by sheer in the latest Ford Models. chance, certainly get a group that yields a percentage suitable for his purpose. Figure 6 is an example of such vague graphs that was used by a major automobile manufacturer to boost 48 % the sales of the latest models. Because no specific models are mentioned, this graph tells the prospective purchaser nothing about any particular type of automobile. The same auto manufacturers are currently claiming that their cars have improved 48 percent in quality in recent productions. Improved how48 percent better than what? To a cynical listener, this claim might mean that the car quality must have been pretty bad, if this much improvement was possible. But, of course, you are not supposed to interpret this advertising nonsense in this fashion. There is nothing wrong with this chart from the advertisers viewpoint, or from the nave readers interpretation. He or she gets the point. But from the standpoint of accuracy and sincerity, there is much to be desired. But no one would stoop so low, you say. Darrel Huff gives numerous samples drawn from reputable newspapers and magazines in his interesting book How To Lie with Statistics (New York: Norton 1954). The author gives common methods of producing striking statistics with weak data. *****
EXERCISE 71 Read the following passages and choose the appropriate letters to show any statistical slips you discover in each passage.

1. The causes of the American Civil War are numerous, but very few historians agree about the most significant causes. Some of them cite economic differences between the North and the South. Others say that the North and the South really were different cultures with different histories. Some others emphasize the issue of slavery as the major cause of the Civil War.
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A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs

C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

2. An educational report recently revealed an increase in Malaysian senior high school students mastery of English in the last three years. The English average score achieved by the students in the National Final Test in Kuala Lumpur was 76 (2001), 82 (2002) and 90 (2003). In Selangor the average score was 74 (2001), 84 (2002) and 88 (2003); and in Serawak 72 (2001), 80 (2002) and 84 (2003). Hearing this, Malaysian Minister of Education and Science congratulated all English teachers and asked them to do better. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

3. A sociological study on single people conducted in Jakarta was completed recently. 35 adult males and 35 adult females were asked to fill in a questionnaire in order to see whether they tended to get married or to stay single. The results showed that poor adult males were more likely to be single than wealthy adult males. The results for females were the opposite. Wealthy women were much more likely to be single than poor women. Another interesting finding in the study was that women would like to get married when they were between 24 to 35 years old, whereas men thought its quite OK if they got married when they were between 30 to 50 years old. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

4. (Letter of Recommendation from an auto-manufacturer to a major) First of all congratulation for your inauguration as the major of one of the busiest industrial city in our country. I support your plan to change the old city-buses in order to provide better transportation to the whole people in your city. In relation to that, let me inform you that my factory has just designed and begun to produce the most economical bus in the world. With 35 seats and fully air-conditioned, the bus needs only 12.5 liters of gasoline to reach 50 kilometers. You can buy our product as many units as possible with the most reasonable price. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

5. In a recent publication it was reported that most Indonesians have increased their incomes over the past years. Seventy-nine per cent of sixty farmers interviewed said that their harvest increased between fifteen to twenty percent in the last two years. Ninety percent of 100 persons working in professional and technical occupations interviewed in Jakarta, Medan, Surabaya and Bandung admitted that their monthly salary increased around fife to ten per cent. Eighteen out of twenty sales workers in Jakarta and Surabaya responded that their sales increased about six percent every month. Ninety per cent of twelve managers and administrators working in Jakarta and Tangerang said their incomes increased around four per cent. Finally, almost 99% of 28 persons working as
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transportation operators admitted to get about seven percent increase in their monthly incomes. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

6. Afghanistan was a frustrating and senseless struggle. Three out of four experts on Far East in The Washington University commented that fighting the Mujahiddin guerillas would give more loss than benefits. Ninety percent of political leaders interviewed by the Washington Post warned the President of the United States that this war could never be won. Nine out of ten American soldiers who returned from Afghanistan last month said that Mujahiddin fighters couldnt be subdued by sophisticated military weapons. It was also reported that more than a half of American soldiers posted in village 150 kilometers to the south of Kabul died senselessly at the hand of Mujahiddin guerillas hiding in the deserts of the country. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

7. According to some proponents of feminist movement, American society still commits sex discrimination in the area of pay. To support this opinion, they claim that the average weekly income for a woman in 1993 was $320, and for a man was $ 443. In my opinion, however, the reason for this difference is not sex discrimination, but the fact that women tend to enter low-paying jobs. In the legal and medical professions, for example, 85% of lawyers and doctors are men (although this situation is changing). In technical professions, more than 90% of all engineers are men. Women, on the other hand, have been the majority in jobs that are not well paid. Statistics show that 99 out of 100 secretaries are women, and 90% of all nurses and primary school teachers are female. To conclude, their tendency to work in low-paying jobs is the reason why the average income obtained by women is lower than those of men. A. Presentation of Facts Without a Reference Point B. Manipulated Charts And Graphs C. Misleading Average D. Deceptive Sample

EXERCISE 72 Read the following Report which appeared in The Straits Times, Singapore, on 6th August 1973. Criticize the deductions made from the statistics of Singapores traffic.

Its Safer to cycle than to drive or walk

ROAD casualty figures show that it is safer to ride a bicycle than drive a car or walk. The chances of survival under the hectic conditions of Singapores traffic congested roads would seem to favor the cyclist consistently over the last ten years.
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Despite the fact that there are more bicycles (392,341 last year) in Singapore than any other class of vehicle, fewer cyclists lost their lives or were injured in 1972 compared with drivers or motor vehicles, motorcyclists and pedestrians. Official figures just published tell a story which suggests that people might live longer if they take to the bicycle, besides making a signal contribution to the fight against smoke pollution. Big Drop While total road casualties have more than doubled in the number killed in the last 10 yearsfrom 1962s 171 to 379 last yearthe fatally injured among cyclists (18 in 1962) totaled 21 last year. This represented a big reduction from 1971 when 45, the highest number since 1962, were killed. Pedestrians topped the casualties both in number killed and injured. In 1962, 82 were killed and 2,455 injured. These figures have climbed steadily until the number killed had almost doubled in 1971 to 162 and then to 171 last year. The number injured stood at 3,294 last year, the highest since 1967 (3,345). 1. Deduction: People might live longer if they ride bicycle (rather than ride motorcycles or drive cars) (paragraph 3) Critic: __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ 2. Deduction: Fatally injured among cyclists was greatly reduced from 1971. (Paragraph 56) Critic: __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________

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EXERCISE 73 The following graphs show increase in average income of workers. On what occasions should they be used?

Graph 1 120 100 80 ( $ ) 60 40 20 0 Dec Aprl Aug Dec

120 110
($)

Graph 2

100
90 80 70 Dec Aprl Aug Dec

Graph 3

Graph 4

120
1000

110 100 $

100

90 80

10

70

EXERCISE 74 These statistics refer to the average monthly expenditure of the families of 3 different income groups in a recent year. Study them carefully and answer the questions that follow.

1. Look at the food expenditure figures of the first two income groups. How can the two percent-ages in each income group be the same when the actual amount in dollars spent on food for rural and urban families are different?

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Expenditure Patterns of Different Income Groups Income Group $300-$400 monthly URBAN RURAL Value in Value in $ ( %) $ (%) 185 (52) 178 (52) 18 (5) 25 (8) 11 (3) 23 (7) 5 (2) 8 (2) 14 (4) 10 (3) 11 (3) 18 (5) 40 (11) 25 (7) 39 11) 46 (13) 34 (9) 48 (6) 357 343 Income Group $401-$600 monthly URBAN RURAL Value in Value in $ ( %) $ (%) 279 (40) 229 (47) 24 (4) 33 (7) 27 (5) 29 (6) 8 (1) 10 (2) 24 (4) 13 (3) 36 (6) 41 (8) 74 (12) 45 (9) 78 (13) 70 (14) 10 (3) 20 (4) 595 490 Income Group $700-$1100 monthly URBAN RURAL Value in Value in $ ( %) $ (%) 350 (35) 272 (34) 100 (10) 112 (14) 50 (5) 48 (6) 20 (2) 16 (2) 40 (4) 24 (3) 60 (6) 56 (7) 150(15) 96 (12) 130 (13) 128 (16) 100 (10) 48 (6) 1000 700

Food Drinks & tobacco Clothing Household goods Fuel & power Transport Services Sundry items Rent, etc Total

2. Which of the following statements are false? How do you know that they are false? a. People in urban areas spend proportionally more of their income foods than do people in rural areas. This is proved by a comparison between the figures $185 and $178, $279 and $229, and $350 and $272. b. People in rural areas evidently do not get as hungry as the people in rural areas. This is proved by the fact that they spend less on food. c. People in urban and rural areas spend about the same proportion of their income on food. d. Since people in the $401-$600 income group spend only 47% of their income on food, they obviously eat less than people in the $300-$400 income group who spend 52% of their income on food. 3. Which of the following statements are false? How do you know that they are false? a. People in urban areas spend proportionally more of their income foods than do people in rural areas. This is proved by a comparison between the figures $185 and $178, $279 and $229, and $350 and $272. b. People in rural areas evidently do not get as hungry as the people in rural areas. This is proved by the fact that they spend less on food. c. People in urban and rural areas spend about the same proportion of their income on food. d. Since people in the $401-$600 income group spend only 47% of their income on food, they obviously eat less than people in the $300-$400 income group who spend 52% of their income on food. 4. Using the statistics as your evidence, write accurate statements concerning the amount spent in urban and rural areas on each of these: clothing, transport, services and rent. Make up four separate statements which compare the amount spent on each item. Then try to explain the difference between the amounts.
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______________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5. Which of these statements are correct? Give reasons for your answer. a. It is clear that people in rural areas must be drunkards. b. The lack of entertainment facilities in the rural areas may partly account for the lower amount spent on services. c. The wealthier you become in an urban area, the less you spent on rent. d. The average monthly income is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. e. The more wealthy a family is, the smaller will be the proportion of its income spent on food and other necessities of life. f. Expenditures on luxuries and recreation vary directly with the average monthly income.

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