Tho lun mn u t quc t:

Ch s VN-Index tnh theo phung php bnh qun gia quyn. Trn th trng th gii c rt nhiu ch s
khc nhau, tng ng cc ch s s c cc phng php tnh ring. Tuy nhin cc ch s phn nh
chung ca th trng chng khon ca mt nc no iu tnh trn c s bnh qun gia quyn. Bn
c th xem thm ph lc ca sch u t ti chnh ca TS.Phan Th Bch Nguyt. v cch tnh ca cc
ch s ny.
Tham kho: Phng php Passcher : tnh VN-Index
y l loi ch s gi c phiu thng dng nht v n l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr vi quyn
s l s lng chng khon nim yt thi k tnh ton. Kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s
thi k tnh ton:
Ngi ta dng cng thc sau tnh:

Trong :
I p : L ch s gi Passcher
p t : L gi thi k t
p o : L gi thi k gc
qt : L khi lng (quyn s) thi im tnh ton ( t ) hoc c cu ca khi lng thi im tnh ton.
i : L c phiu i tham gia tnh ch s gi
n : L s lng c phiu a vo tnh ch s
Ch s gi bnh qun Passcher l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr ly quyn s l quyn s thi k
tnh ton, v vy kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s (c cu chng khon nim yt) thi tnh
ton

ngy 28/7/2000, th trng chng khon Vit Nam m sn giao dch u tin. Vi im xut
pht l 100, ch cha y mt nm sau ngy ra i, vo ngy 25/6/2001, Ch s VN- Index
phi m ln 571,04 im.

C l do mi ra i, nn th trng chng khon c sc hp dn ln i vi nhiu nh u

t, nht l nhng nh u t c mu liu cao.
Chnh v vy, d ch c rt t c phiu trn sn, nhng gi tr giao dch t tng i cao vi
n v tnh l chc t, trm t ng, c mt s phin t trn 1.000 t ng.
Sau khi t nh 571,04 im, ch s VN- Index st gim dn v hn hai nm sau, chnh xc
l vo ngy 24/10/2003, ri xung y 130,04 im. VN- Index phi trn b mi cho
n tn ngy 25/4/2006 mi t nh mi l 632,69 im!
Nh vy, tnh t ngy 25/6/2001 n 25/4/2006, Ch s VN- Index bin ng theo hnh ch
U, vi y rt thp (cch nh trn di 500 im) v ko di kh lu (gn 5 nm).
Sau khi t nh mi 632,69 im vo ngy 25/4/2006, Ch s VN- Index li gim dn, ri
sau hn ba thng, vo ngy 2/8/2006, li ri xung y 399,8 im. Tuy nhin, sau
VN Index phi m ln nh mi 1.170,67 im vo ngy 12/3/2007.
Nh vy, trong gn mt nm, t ngy 25/4/2006 n 12/3/2007, VN- Index bin ng theo
hnh ch V, vi nh 632,69 im, y 399,8 im v nh 1.170,67 im.
Trong gn 7 thng, t ngy 12/3/2007 n 3/10/2007, VN- Index bin ng theo hnh ch W:
1.170,67 im (ngy 12/3/2007); 905,53 im (ngy 24/4/2007); 1.113,19 im (ngy
23/5/2007); 883,9 im (ngy 6/8/2007); 1.106,6 im (ngy 3/10/2007). y l giai on m
nh v y thuc loi cao nht t trc ti nay, nhng c xu hng thp dn (nh sau
thp hn nh trc, y sau thp hn y trc).
Trong gn mt nm, t ngy 3/10/2007 n 26/8/2008, VN - Index bin ng theo hnh ch V:
1.106,6 im (ngy 3/10/2007); 366,02 im (ngy 20/6/2008); 561,67 im (ngy 26/8/2008).
giai on ny, nh sau thp xa so vi nh trc v y sau thp xa so vi cc y
trc.
Sau khi t nh 561,67 im vo ngy 26/8/2008, Ch s VN- Index ri xung y
235,5 im vo ngy 24/2/2009 v ngy 19/5/2009 t 400, 9 im.
T din bin trn, c th m hnh ho din bin ch s VN- Index trong vi thng ti mt cch
tng i nh sau: Th nht, 400,9 im cha phi l nh, c ngha l VN- Index vn ang c
xu hng tng ln.
Th hai, nu VN- Index vn tip xu hng c (nh sau thp hn nh trc, y sau thp
hn y trc nh m hnh ca hai thi k trc), th nh mi ti y s thp hn nh

561,67 im trc y.
Nu VN- Index c xu hng nh cui nm 2006 (nh sau cao hn nh trc) th kh nng
nh mi ti y s cao hn 561,67 im, bi c dng tin ln c lng tin ang quay li vi th
trng chng khon. nh mi c th t vo thng 6 ti.
Nu din bin nh trn th Ch s VN- Index s bin ng theo hnh ch V, vi nh 561,67
im, y 235,5 im, nh cao hn 561,67 im.
Th ba, nu VN- Index bin ng theo hnh ch W th nh 561,67 im, y 235,5 im,
nh mi cao hn 561,67 im, y mi cao hn 235,5 im v nh mi cn cao hn 2
nh trc. y mi c th ri vo thng 8/2009, nh mi s ri vo cui nm nay hay
u nm sau.