T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:

CC NHN T QUYT NH, MC SAI LCH

V TC NG I VI XUT KHU

T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
CC NHN T QUYT NH, MC SAI LCH
V TC NG I VI XUT KHU,

Bo co nghin cu RS - 01
Bn quyn 2011 thuc v y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v
UNDP ti Vit Nam.
Mi s sao chp v lu hnh khng c s ng ca
y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP l vi phm bn quyn.
2

UNDP

Y BAN KINH T CA
QUC HI

T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
CC NHN T QUYT NH, MC SAI LCH
V TC NG I VI XUT KHU

H Ni, thng 12/2011

3

LI GII THIU
Chnh sch t gi lun c coi l mt trong nhng chnh sch v m rt quan trng nhng tc
ng kh lng trc v thng phi nh i gia nhiu mc tiu v m khc nhau. Trn thc t, c
nhiu mc tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc thi chnh sch v d a
thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic gim gi ng ni t c th thc y xut khu v ci thin
cn cn thanh ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin nht nh v tc ng i
vi tng hng ha khc nhau l khc nhau.
iu cho thy vic nh gi tc ng ca iu chnh t gi n lm pht l khng h n
gin v trong mt nn kinh t m, t gi thc nh hng n gi c tng i gia cc hng ha sn
xut trong nc v hng ha nhp khu. T gi cng c th tc ng trc tip n lm pht do vic
thay i gi c tnh bng ng ni t ca hng ha nhp khu v qua nh hng n ch s gi.
Vic nh gi din bin v nguyn nhn bin ng t gi, ng thi phn tch tc ng gia chnh
sch t gi v tng trng xut khu l mt ch m cc i biu Quc hi v cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch hin rt quan tm.
Trc yu cu , nghin cu ny tp trung phn tch v nh gi xu hng t gi v bin
ng ca t gi danh ngha v t gi thc trong giai on 10 nm qua, nhng nhn t tc ng n t
gi hu hiu thc v mc sai lch, t xc nh c t gi cn bng v mc nh gi cao
hay thp ca tin ng cng nh nh lng c tc ng ca thay i t gi n xut khu ca cc
mt hng chnh ca Vit Nam. Thng qua phng php nghin cu r rng v nhng bng chng
phn tch xc thc, nghin cu a ra nhng pht hin hu ch v c tnh thuyt phc cao.
y l nghin cu u tin trong chui nhng nghin cu da trn bng chng thc nghim
gn vi nhng vn chnh sch kinh t v m hin thu ht nhiu s quan tm ca cc i biu Quc
hi v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch nc ta ang c trin khai trong khun kh D n H tr
nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m ca y ban Kinh t ca
Quc hi. Xin trn trng gii thiu ti qu v.

Nghin cu c thc hin trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao

nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch Kinh t v m do
y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi ch tr, vi s ti tr ca Chng trnh
Pht trin Lin hp quc ti Vit Nam (UNDP).

Trng Ban ch o:
Nguyn Vn Giu
Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
Gim c:
Nguyn Vn Phc
Ph Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
Ph Gim c:
Nguyn Minh Sn
Qun c:
Nguyn Tr Dng

Nhm tc gi:
V Quc Huy
Nguyn Th Thu Hng
V Phm Hi ng

Cc tc gi xin by t li cm n i vi ng V Vit Ngon, Nguyn Tr Dng, T

Trung Thnh, Rodney Schmidt, V Thnh T Anh, V Tr Thnh, L Hi Ha v b L
Th Ngc Lin v nhng kin ng gp v s ng h ca h. Nhng quan im l ca
ring cc tc gi v tc gi xin chu trch nhim i vi cc sai st trong bi.

MC LC
Li m u .................................................................................................................. 11
Phn I: Qun l t gi Vit Nam, nhng bin ng gn y .................................. 14
Cc xu hng t gi: ......................................................................................................... 15
Nhng bin ng gn y ................................................................................................. 16
Giai on 2008-2009 ................................................................................................................. 16
Giai on 2010-2011 ................................................................................................................. 18

Din bin ca t gi thc ................................................................................................... 21

Phn II: Cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thc (hu hiu) v mc sai lch ............. 25
T gi thc hu hiu (REER): Khi nim, cch tnh v ng dng .................................. 25
Tnh ton t gi thc hu hiu Vit Nam: s liu mi v nhng pht hin mi ........................ 27
Cc kt qu chnh v la chn ti u v tn sut s liu v phm vi cc nc c s dng ...... 28

Cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thc hu hiu v mc sai lch ..................................... 29

o lng t gi cn bng ........................................................................................................... 29
M hnh cho Vit Nam ............................................................................................................... 32

La chn m hnh v kt qu thc nghim cho Vit Nam................................................ 34

Kt lun ............................................................................................................................. 38

Phn III: Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu: M hnh VECM ................................ 39

nh dng m hnh ........................................................................................................... 39
S liu ................................................................................................................................ 42
Cc kt qu chnh .............................................................................................................. 42
Kt lun ............................................................................................................................. 44

Phn IV: Tho lun chnh sch v kt lun .............................................................. 45

DANH MC BNG
Bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M (nm 2000 l nm gc) ....................... 22
Bng 2. c lng REER di hn cho mi quc gia: ......................................................................... 33
Bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp: ......................................................................................... 35
Bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy...................................................... 36
Bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: cc th trng xut khu chnh, s
liu GTIS........................................................................................................................................... 43
Bng A. 2. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang cc th trng chnh, 2005-2010....................................... 49
Bng A. 4.Cc h s ng tch hp trong m hnh vi th trng M v danh mc hong ha SITC
(US market and SITC commodities) .................................................................................................. 53
Bng A. 5. Phn ng ngn hn ca xut khu i vi t gi: hm phn hi xung ............................... 60

DANH MC HNH
Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD (bn tri) v lm pht Vit Nam (bn phi), 1992-2010 ....... 15
Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011 .............................................................. 17
Hnh 3. T gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do theo ngy, VND/USD, 2009-2011 ..................... 18
Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu 2000-2011.......................................... 21
Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD: 2000Q1-2010Q3 .................... 23
Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER ......................................................... 26
Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER ........................................ 28
Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau ................................................................................ 29
Hnh 10. T gi cn bng ................................................................................................................... 37
Hnh 11. Sai lch ca T gi: Tng sai lch v Sai lch hin ti ......................................................... 38

NHNG T VIT TT
ADB

Ngn hng Pht trin Chu

ADF

Kim nh Dickey-Fuller tch hp (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test)

ARDL

M hnh phn b tr t hi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag model)

ARPDL

M hnh phn b tr t hi quy a thc (Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag

model)

BEER

T gi cn bng theo hnh vi (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate)

CGER

Nhm t vn v cc vn t gi (Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues)

CPI

Ch s gi tiu dng

EMEs

Cc nn kinh t mi ni (Emerging Market Economies)

FDI

u t trc tip nc ngoi

FEER

T gi cn bng c s (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate)

FII

u t gin tip nc ngoi

GDP

Tng sn phm quc ni

GTA

Atlas Thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Atlas)

GTIS

H thng thng tin thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Information System)

HS

H thng phn loi hng ha hi ha (Harmonized System)

IFS

H thng ti chnh quc t (International Finance System)

IMF

Qu tin t quc t (International Monetary Fund)

LICs

Cc nc thu nhp thp (Low Income Countries)

NATREX

T gi t nhin Natural Rate of Exchange (NATREX)

NEER

T gi hu hiu danh ngha (Norminal Effective Exchange Rate)

NHNN

Ngn hng Nh nc

NHTM

Ngn hng thng mi

ODA

Vin tr pht trin chnh thc

PEER

T gi cn bng thng xuyn (Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate)

REER

T gi hu hiu thc (Norminal Effective Exchange Rate)

SITC

H thng phn loi quc t v thng mi (Standard International Trade Classification)

VND

ng Vit Nam

USD

la M

10

LI M U

Kinh nghim quc t ch ra rng khng c mt khun mu sn c cho mt nn kinh t thc

hin chnh sch t gi ca mnh. Loi tr mt vi trng hp c bit, phn ln cc nn kinh t u xy
dng mt chnh sch t gi trong mt khng gian chnh sch kh rng ri gia hai thi cc: ch t
gi c nh vi bin dao ng rt hp v ch th ni t gi. Hn th na, gia nhng quy nh c
tnh php l v ch t gi c cng khai vi vic thc thi chnh sch t gi trn thc t c nhng
khc bit kh ln. Vic nh gi, xem xt ch t gi ca mt nn kinh t do vy phn nhiu l mt
vn mang tnh thc nghim, cn c xem xt thng qua cc bng chng thc t.
Trn thc t cng c nhng khc bit rt ln gia mt bn l nhng k vng v nhng tc ng
m nhng chnh sch t gi c th mang li vi bn kia l nhng tc ng thc s n nn kinh t ca
nhng bin php chnh sch . Thm vo , c s nh i nht nh gia cc mc tiu chnh sch.
Thng thng c qu nhiu mc tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc
thi chnh sch v d a thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic gim gi ng ni t c th thc
y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thanh ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin
nht nh (trong kinh t hc mt trong nhng iu kin l iu kin Marshall-Lerner khi tng co
gin ca xut khu v nhp khu vi gi c phi ln hn 1). Thm vo , ngay c khi xut khu c
ci thin do tc ng ca t gi th mc tc ng cng rt khc nhau gia cc sn phm v theo
thi gian. Cc nghin cu cng ch ra rng gia mc tiu n nh t gi thc da trn tiu dng v
mc tiu iu chnh iu kin thng mi i khi mu thun do tc ng ca t gi n cc mc gi c
ca hng tiu dng v hng dnh cho sn xut l khc nhau. iu cng ch ra rng tc ng ca t
gi n lm pht l khng h n gin. Trong mt nn kinh t m, t gi thc nh hng n gi c
tng i gia cc hng ha sn xut trong nc v mt hng nhp khu.Vic thay i gi c tng
i ny dn n s thay i v nhu cu i vi tng loi hng ha , t dn n thay i tng cu
v tc ng n lm pht.T gi c th tc ng trc tip n lm pht do vic thay i gi c tnh
bng ng bn a ca cc mt hng nhp khu v qua nh hng n ch s gi c.
Tt c nhng iu ni trn hm rng bt k mt chng trnh kim sot lm pht no trong
ngn hn cng phi kim sot ng thi ca t gi. Vic tng trng xut khu do tc ng ban u
ca vic gim gi ng ni t rt c th b mt dn i do nhng tc ng bt li ca lm pht ko theo
trong cc giai on sau. Tc ng cui cng ny, nh ni trn ty thuc nhiu vo cc sn phm
v thi gian do cc mc tc ng v knh chuyn ti tc ng ca t gi. S dng ch s t gi hu
hiu thc (real effective exchange rate, REER) nh l mt ch s nng lc cnh tranh c th l lch lc
bi l nng lc cnh tranh l mt khi nim rng ln hn nhiu, khng n thun ch l t gi.

11

Tnh cht phc tp, a dng, mang tnh nh i mc tiu cao ca vic thc thi cc bin php
ca chnh sch t gi l gii phn no ti sao ch ny li l mt quan tm ln v c bn tho
nhiu Vit Nam, nht l t nm 2007 tr li y sau nhng bt n kinh t v m ca nc ta. Qun l
t gi ang l mt thch thc chnh sch ln khi ang lin tc c nhng du hiu v nhng mo m
trn th trng ngoi hi. K t sau thng 9 nm 2010 n thi im nghin cu ny c thc hin
(thng 5 nm 2011) tnh hnh trn li tr nn phc tp hn do lm pht li ti din. Vn t gi c
coi l mt trong nhng vn cc k quan trng nh hng n s n nh v m ca nn kinh t
cng vi cc vn khc nh thm ht ngn sch, thm ht thng mi v lm pht. iu hnh t gi
hp l nhm kim sot lm pht, n nh nn kinh t, thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thng
mi lun c coi trn danh ngha l nhng mc tiu chnh sch quan trng Vit Nam.
iu ny tr nn quan trng hn bao gi ht trong bi cnh Vit Nam ang phi i mt vi
nhng thch thc n nh kinh t v m nh hin nay. Cc bin php mnh tay p dng gn y nh
cm bun bn ngoi t trn th trng phi chnh thc, yu cu kt hi khng chnh thc, vic ph gi
mnh ng Vit Nam u nm 2011 sau mt thi gian di km gi t ra nhng cu hi v tnh hiu
qu v ph hp ca cc bin php ny trong khun kh chung ca mt chnh sch t gi. Nghin cu
ny s cp n mt s ni dung trong cch thc iu hnh t gi ca Vit Nam trong thi gian gn
y (t sau nm 2000) trn c s nhng phn tch thc chng.
Chng ti tnh ch s t gi hu hiu thc - real effective exchange rate (REER) theo thng trn
c s s dng cc s liu kh cp nht, chi tit hn v c tn sut thi gian v khng gian so vi cc
nghin cu trc y. Nghin cu cng xut cch thc tnh ch s ny theo cch mi vi tn sut
thi gian v phm vi ban hnh hp l, phc v cho cc nhu cu phn tch chnh sch, thng k v theo
di trong tng lai. Bn cnh , ln u tin nc ta, mc sai lch v t gi (exchange rate
misalignment) cng c nhm nghin cu a ra da trn mt m hnh kinh t lng tng i n
gin v c th nghim tnh ton mc sai lch t gi cho nhiu quc gia trn th gii. Cc
kt qu v mc sai lch t gi c th s gp phn nh gi hiu qu ca chnh sch t gi, theo
ngha cc bin php can thip t gi c lm trm trng thm hay gim nh mc sai lch ny. Cc s
liu v mc sai lch t gi cng ch ra c din bin ca t gi v mi tng thch vi nhng ch
s nn tng (fundamentals) ca nn kinh t. iu c th s gip cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch
c thm thng tin trong khi cn nhc, xem xt cc bin php khc nhau khi iu hnh t gi cho ph
hp vi tnh hnh thc t v cc mc tiu ra. Phn cui ca nghin cu l kt qu ca m hnh kinh
t lng c lng tc ng ca t gi i vi xut khu. Khc vi nhiu nghin cu trc y,
nghin cu ny a ra kt qu v nh hng ca t gi i vi cc sn phm xut khu theo danh mc
quc t (195 mt hng theo m SITC 3 ch s v trn 90 mt hng theo m HS 2 ch s) trn 4 th
trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam l Hoa K, Khu vc ng Euro (15 nc), Nht Bn v Hn
Quc. Cc kt qu c lng cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tuy
nhin tc ng tch cc ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu.
12

Kt lun ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi

trong vic thc y xut khu.Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c ny cn phi tnh
ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt
khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc.
Bo co ny c nhng ni dung chnh nh sau: Phn I tm tt nhng bin ng gn y trn th
trng ngoi hi v cc thay i chnh sch tng ng, ch trng vo giai on t sau 2007; Phn II
c lng t gi hu hiu thc (REER); Phn III xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi; Phn IV l m
hnh kinh t lng v tc ng ca t gi ln xut khu; Phn V tho lun cc vn chnh sch trong
vic qun l t gi Vit Nam v m ra nhng hng nghin cu mi.

13

PHN I
QUN L T GI VIT NAM: NHNG BIN NG GN Y

Qun l t gi nhm kim sot lm pht, n nh kinh t v m v cn cn thng mi lun l mt

nhim v quan trng i vi Vit Nam. iu ny cng quan trng hn khi hin ti Vit Nam vn ang
c gng thot khi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii 2007-2009 v n lc n nh kinh t v m.
Vit Nam c nhiu iu chnh trong c ch t gi k t khi t nc chm dt c ch tp trung
quan liu bao cp nm 1989. Tuy nhin, xt v bn cht cc thay i ny u xoay quanh ch neo
t gi. Vit Nam, ng USD gn nh c mc nh l ng tin neo t gi. Ngn hng nh nc
Vit Nam (NHNN) cng b t gi VND/USD. Cn c vo t gi quc t gia USD v cc ng tin
ngoi t khc, cc ngn hng thng mi s xc lp t gi gia cc ngoi t vi VND. (Xem phn
ph lc bit thng tin chi tit v nhng iu chnh t gi ca Vit Nam t nm 1989)
Trong vng 10 nm qua xut hin nhiu n lc nghin cu v c ch t gi ca Vit Nam.
ng k nht trong s l cc nghin cu ca V Tr Thnh v cc ng tc gi (2000), Ohno
(2003), Nguyn Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009), v Nguyn Trn Phc (2009). Cc nghin cu
ny u ch ra rng c ch t gi ca Vit Nam mt mt cn c duy tr n nh, nhng mt khc nn
linh ng hn na theo tn hiu th trng. V Tr Thnh v cc ng tc gi (2000) xut Vit Nam
nn theo c ch neo t gi theo r tin t vi bin iu chnh dn (Band-Basket-Crawling) cn
Ohno (2003) xut Vit Nam nn theo c ch neo t gi c iu chnh (crawling peg). Trn thc t,
trong nhng nm va qua Vit Nam theo ui c ch neo t gi c iu chnh nh xut ca hai
nghin cu trn. Nhng hai nghin cu gn y ca Nguyn Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009) v
Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) li ch ra rng c ch neo t gi c iu chnh ny khng hot ng hiu
qu, gy ra cc bt n cho th trng ti chnh. Khng nhng th, n cn ngn cn s pht trin ca th
trng ngoi hi ca Vit Nam. Mt nghin cu gn y ca Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc
gi (2010) cng chia s quan im ca Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) v gi Vit Nam nn nhanh chng
chuyn sang c ch th ni c kim sot.
hiu r hn v tc ng ca chnh sch qun l t gi v nhng iu chnh trong t gi, chng
ta s xem xt nhng bin ng ca t gi Vit Nam v tp trung ch yu vo nhng bin ng gn
y.

14

Cc xu hng t gi:
Nhn vo din bin ca t gi danh ngha t nm 1992 n nay (Hnh 1) c th thy t gi chnh
thc VND/USD1 c xu hng i theo mt chu k r rt gm hai giai on: (i) trong giai on suy
thoi kinh t hoc khng hong, VND mt gi kh mnh; (ii) khi giai on suy thoi kt thc, nn kinh
t i vo n nh th t gi li c neo gi tng i cng nhc theo ng USD. Chu k ny c
lp li hn hai ln t nm 1989 n nay.
Giai on 1 ca chu k tng ng vi cc giai on nn kinh t c s bin ng mnh: (i) 19972000 vi nh hng mnh m ca cuc khng hong ti chnh Chu ; v (ii) 2008-2011 vi cuc
khng hong kinh t ton cu v n lc bnh n kinh t v m. Gn lin vi nhng giai on bin ng
mnh ny l s chnh lch ln gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do. Sc p ca th trng
buc NHNN phi ni rng bin t gi hoc chnh thc ph gi, lm cho VND mt gi mnh m
so vi thi im trc .
Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD (bn tri) v lm pht Vit Nam (bn phi), 1992-2010

Ngun: TCTK, NHNN (2011) v tnh ton ca tc gi.

Giai on 2 ca chu k tng ng vi cc thi k nn kinh t i vo pht trin n nh nh giai

on 1993-1996 v giai on 2001-2007. Gn lin vi cc giai on ny l mt c ch t gi neo gi
theo ng USD mt cch tng i cng nhc. y cng l cc giai on m t gi trn th trng t

T gi chnh thc l t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng do Ngn hng nh nc (NHNN) cng b hng ngy da trn t gi

giao dch ca ngy hm trc gia cc ngn hng thng mi (NHTM).

15

do cng n nh v theo st vi t gi chnh thc. Nguyn nhn l do giai on trc t gi chnh

thc c tng lin tc v n cui giai on ngang bng vi t gi th trng t do.

Nhng bin ng gn y
Giai on 2008-2009
Giai on 2008-2009 nh du s bin ng trong cc phn ng chnh sch t gi Vit Nam.
T nm 2007, do s gia tng t ca lung tin u t gin tip vo Vit Nam, ngun cung USD
tng mnh. Trn thc t vo na u nm 2007 v t thng 10/2007 n thng 3/2008, th trng
ngoi hi Vit Nam c d cung v USD khin cho t gi NHTM2 gim xung sn bin . ng
Vit Nam ln gi trong giai on ny.
Hnh 2 cho thy t gi c nhng bin ng mnh trong nm 2008 do lm pht tng cao trong
na u nm v cuc khng hong kinh t th gii bt u tc ng ti nn kinh t Vit Nam vo
na cui nm 2008. T gia nm 2008, cng vi s suy thoi kinh t, lung u t gin tip vo Vit
Nam bt u o chiu.
Xu hng chung ca nm 2009 l s mt gi danh ngha ca VND so vi USD. Cho n cui
nm 2009, t gi chnh thc VND/USD tng 5,6% so vi cui nm 2008. Trong khi trong nm
2008, t gi nim yt ti cc NHTM bin ng lin tc, u nm cn c giai on thp hn t gi
chnh thc, th nm 2009 li l mt nm m t gi NHTM lun mc trn ca bin giao ng m
NHNN cng b.
Trong c nm, p lc v cung cu trn th trng cng vi p lc tm l khin t gi trn th
trng t do ngy cng ri xa t gi chnh thc. Mc d NHNN buc phi m rng bin giao
ng ca t gi chnh thc trong thng 3 t +/-3% ln +/-5% bin ln nht trong vng 10 nm
qua, nhng cc NHTM vn giao dch mc t gi trn. Tnh trng nhp siu ko di v ngy cng
tng t thng 3 n cui nm. Gi tr nhp khu trong 3 thng cui nm tng mnh so vi 3 thng
u nm, chim 30% tng gi tr nhp khu c nm 2009. Gi tr xut khu trong c nm gim 10% so
vi nm 2009 ch yu do mt bng gi xut khu gim c bit l cc mt hng xut khu ch lc ca
Vit Nam. Mc d xut khu tng vo cui nm nhng trong thng 11, nhp siu ln ti hn 2 t
USD, mc ln nht trong c nm.
Thm vo , chnh lch ln gia gi vng trong nc v gi vng quc t khin cho nhu cu
v USD cng tng phc v vic nhp khu vng. Gi vng v gi u tng mnh. Ngi dn
y mnh mua ngoi t trn th trng t do, gi USD trn th trng ch en tng mnh. Do khan
him ngun cung USD, cc doanh nghip cng phi nh n th trng ch en hoc phi cng thm
ph ph khi mua ngoi t ti cc ngn hng thng mi. Tm l hoang mang mt lng tin vo VND

T gi NHTM l t gi giao dch ca cc NHTM v phi nm trong bin giao ng do NHNN cng b.

16

lm tng cu v gim cung v USD y t gi th trng t do tng ln hng ngy. Ngi dn lo

ngi thc s v kh nng ph gi tin VND, sau khi mt s bo co ca cc nh ch ti chnh c
cng b.
Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011

Ngun: NHNN, Vietcombank (2011) v tnh ton ca tc gi

V n 26/11/2009, NHNN buc phi chnh thc ph gi VND 5,4%, t l ph gi cao nht
trong mt ngy k t nm 1998 chng u c tin t 3 v gim p lc th trng, ng thi thu hp
bin giao ng xung cn +/-3%. Cng vi chnh sch t gi, vo thi im ny NHNN nng li
sut c bn t 7% ln 8%/nm. Cc chnh sch ny c cho l hp l nhng kh mun mng. ng
Vit Nam tip tc mt gi trn th trng t do th hin qua vic t gi trn th trng t do vo thi
im cui nm 2009 vn ng vng mc cao khong 19.400 VND cho 1 USD v cc NHTM tip
tc giao dch mc trn.
Tnh hnh th trng ngoi hi trong nm 2009 c th trm trng hn nu khng c: (i) s st
gim nhu cu ngoi t do thu nhp t u t do cc doanh nghip c yu t nc ngoi chuyn ra khi
Vit Nam gim (trong nm 2009 c t 3 t USD, so vi -4,4 t USD nm 2008) v (ii) s gia tng
cung ngoi t do lng kiu hi vn ng vng con s kh tch cc hn 6 t USD. FDI gii ngn

Cui thng 12 nm 2008, NHNN ph gi VND 3%.

17

c t 10 t USD. u t gin tip nc ngoi chy ra khi Vit Nam vo u nm nhng cng c
du hiu o chiu vo cui nm.
Hnh 3. T gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do theo ngy, VND/USD, 2009-2011

Ngun: NHNN, Vietcombank v cc ca hng vng t nhn (2011)

R rng, NHNN th hin s lng l v khng nht qun trong chnh sch t gi. Vic s dng
bin t gi thay cho vic ph gi chnh thc vo thng 3/2009 cng khng c tc dng nh mong
mun. Trong c nm, bt chp cc bin php hnh chnh (nh yu cu cc tng cng ty nh nc bn
ngoi t cho chnh ph) cng nh cc cng b ca lnh o NHNN, NHNN khng th ko t gi th
trng t do v st vi t gi NHTM nh mong mun. Thm vo , do phi gi n nh t gi trong
thi gian di, NHNN phi bn ra hn mt lng ln USD lm gim d tr ngoi hi. Vo cui nm
2009, k vng mt gi ca ng tin Vit Nam hin vn cn kh ln.

Giai on 2010-2011
Nm 2010 tip tc chng kin cc xu hng tng t trn th trng ngoi hi nh trong nm 2009.
C th l cc NTTM vn tip tc t t gi ti trn bin ca t gi chnh thc trong hu ht cc
thng trong nm v khong cch gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do c lc tng ln
nhng mc cao cha tng c vo cui nm 2010.
Do cc p lc vn tip tc tng cao d NHNN c nhiu n lc vo cui nm 2009, n ngy
11/02/2010, NHNN phi tng t gi chnh thc t 17.941 VND/USD ln 18.544 VND/USD, tng
ng vi vic ph gi 3,3%. Cng vi vic nng t gi ny, NHNN thc hin hng lot cc bin
php hnh chnh nhm gim p lc ln th trng ngoi hi nh gim t l d tr bt buc i vi tin
18

gi ngoi t, m rng i tng cho vay ngoi t, chm dt vic giao dch vng trn cc ti khon
nc ngoi ca cc NHTM v cc t chc tn dng, ng ca cc sn vng, v tng li sut c bn ln
8%/nm. Kt qu l, trong su thng u nm 2010 tn dng ngoi t tng 27% trong khi tn dng
VND ch tng 4.6%. ng thi, kiu hi v cc khon gii ngn FDI, ODA v FII (u t gin tip
nc ngoi) u tng ln trong hai qu u ca nm 2010 so vi cng k nm 2009 khi cn khng
hong. Tt c cc yu t trn gp phn tng cung v gim cu ngoi t nh gim khong cch gia
t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh thc trong qu II v na u qu III nm 2010 (xem Hnh 3).
Tuy nhin, cc NHTM tip tc t gi mc trn hoc gn vi trn bin ca t gi chnh thc.
V t u thng 7 nm 2010, t gi th trng t do li bt u tng ln d lc u ch tng chm.
Nhng xu hng ny phn nh k vng ca th trng ngoi hi v s ph gi ca VND. Nguyn nhn
ca k vng ny l: (i) cung ngoi t tng l ch yu do cc doanh nghip tn dng chnh lch li sut
gia tin gi ngoi t v tin gi VND; (2) nhiu bin php hnh chnh ca NHNN ch mang tnh tm
thi v c th s b o ngc; (3) lo lng v vic cu ngoi t s tng cao khi nhiu khon vay ngoi
t ca cc doanh nghip nhm tn dng chnh lch li sut s n hn; v (4) hnh vi u c ca ngi
dn do gim st nim tin vo tin ng.
C l do nhn thc c nhng mi e da ny, vo ngy 17/08/2010, NHNN t ngt tng t
gi thm 2,1% ln 18.932 VND/USD mc d lc p lc th trng vn cha r rng v khong
cch gia t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh thc vn ang mc thp khong 500 VND/USD.
Ngay lp tc, cc NHTM tng t gi ca h ln kch trn. ng thi ca NHNN c th gip gim
p lc v n nh t gi nu khng c nhiu nhng yu t bt li din ra trong nhng thng cui ca
nm 2010. Yu t u tin v c l l yu t quan trng nht l vic gi vng quc t tng cao k lc
dn n gi vng trong nc cn tng cao hn do u c. ng thi, sau mt vi thng tng vi tc
chm, lm pht li bt u tng nhanh t thng 9 nm 2010 khin cho CPI ca nm 2011 tng ln
11,75% so vi 7% nm 2009.
Trong nhng thng cui nm 2011, th trng ngoi hi chng kin s tng ln nhanh chng ca
cu v ngoi t do: (i) nhu cu mua ngoi t tr cc khon vay o hn ca cc doanh nghip tn
dng chnh lch li sut trong hai qu u nm 2011, (ii) nhu cu nhp khu thng tng cao vo cui
nm cng thm nhu cu nhp khu vng nhm kim li t s chnh lch gia gi vng trong nc v
gi vng quc t, (iii) NHNN tht cht tn dng ngoi t; (iv) li sut tin gi ngoi t tng cao, ln
trn 5%/nm; v (v) hot ng u c gia tng. Thm vo , cung ngoi t gim st do cc doanh
nghip khng mun bn ngoi t cho ngn hng khi h lo lng v kh nng NHNN s tip tc phi ph
gi VND.
Kt qu ca s d cu ngoi t l t gi th trng t do bt u tng t thng 9 nm 2010 ln
20.500 VND/USD vo gia thng 10 v ln n mc k lc l trn 21.500 VND/USD vo cui thng
11 (xem Hnh 3). i mt vi tnh trng ny, NHNN phi thc hin mt lot cc bin php hnh
19

chnh nh tuyn b tng cung ngoi t cho vic nhp khu nhng mt hng thit yu cho sn xut, tht
cht vic trao i cng nh nhn gi v cho vay bng vng, v tng hn ngch nhp khu vng lm
du tnh hnh cng thng trn th trng vng. ng thi, li sut c bn cng c tng ln 9%/nm
vo thng 11.
Tuy nhin, t gi th trng t do ch gim nh i cht v vo cui nm 2010 v u nm 2011
vn ng mc cao. Nguyn nhn th nht cho tnh trng ny l do hu ht cc bin php ca NHNN,
nht l i vi th trng vng ch mang tnh tm thi. Th hai, d tr ngoi hi lin tc gim st
t nm 2009 v do tuyn b ca NHNN v vic cung ngoi t ra th trng khng c hon ton
m bo. Th ba, lm pht tng cao v vn tip tc tng. Th t, thm ht thng mi nm 2010
vn cao mc 12,4 t la ( loi tr 2,8 t nhp khu rng vng). Tnh trng ny cn trm trng
hn do cc hot ng u c.
Khng th tip tc duy tr t gi, NHNN tuyn b mc ph gi cao nht trong lch s (9,3%)
vo u thng 2 nm 2011, nng t gi chnh thc ln 20.693 VND/USD v gim bin xung cn
+/-1%. N lc ny khng c kt qu ngay lp tc. T gi th trng t do vt ln trn 22.100
VND/USD trong vng vi ngy k t sau ln ph gi ny. Vo thng 3 nm 2011, NHNN sit cht
cc hot ng trn th trng t do, p t trn li sut thp cho tin gi bng ngoi t v do m
rng chnh lch gia li sut tin gi ngoi t v li sut VND lc ln kch trn 14%. Do vy,
cung ngoi t tng ln khi cc doanh nghip v c nhn chuyn i tin gi bng ngoi t sang tin
gi bng VND tn dng chnh lch li sut cao. ng thi, NHNN cng tuyn b l mua thm
c 3 t cho d tr ngoi hi. Nh , c t gi th trng t do v t gi NHTM u gim xung t
thng 4 nm 2011, v c lc cn thp hn t gi chnh thc.
Giai on 2010-2011 cho thy NHNN ch ng hn so vi nhng nm trc. C th, NHNN
i trc th trng vo thng 8 nm 2010 khi cc p lc th trng cn tng i thp. ng thi,
NHNN tin hnh ph gi mt ln vi mc ln hn (thng 2 nm 2011) Nhng ng thi ny cho
thy NHNN bt cng nhc v vn ng theo th trng tt hn. Tuy nhin, NHNN vn s dng
rt nhiu bin php hnh chnh thay v to mi trng cho th trng t vn hnh.
Mc d hin nay th trng ngoi hi n nh hn, cc bi hc t tnh hung tng t vo gia
nm 2010 cnh bo chng ta khng nn ch quan vi th trng. Gia hai k th trng tng i n
ha (hin ti v gia nm 2010) c nhng im tng t khng th ph nhn. Th nht, cc doanh
nghip v cc c nhn chuyn i tin gi bng ngoi t sang tin gi VND tn dng chnh lch li
sut c hai giai on. Th hai, trong c hai giai on, NHTM u h t gi xung thp hn trn bin
. Th ba, tn dng ngoi t tng nhanh hn nhiu so vi tn dng VND trong c hai trng hp,
ng ngha vi vic n cui nm nhu cu ngoi t tr cc khon n o hn s tng nhanh. Th t,
p lc t nhp siu vn ln. Cui cng, t gi th trng t do v t gi NHTM vn bm st nhau
(mcd b kim sot cht ch, mt s hot ng t do vn din ra). Do , nu xy ra cc yu t bt li
20

vo qu 4 nm 2011 nh s bin ng ln v t ngt trn th trng vng (c trong v ngoi nc),

lm pht cao (c trong v ngoi nc) th cc p lc trn th trng ngoi hi s tng ln v c th dn
n nhng bin ng tng t nh vo cui nm 2010.
Tuy nhin, hin ti th trng cng c nhng im khc bit, c thun li v bt li so vi gia
nm 2010. Th nht, tnh hnh nm 2010 c li hn v giai on th trng ngoi hi n nh l giai
on lm pht thp lin mt s thng khin nim tin vo tin ng cao hn hin ti khi lm pht
tng lin tc trong 8 thng qua. Tuy nhin hin ti, NHNN tng v vn tip tc n lc tng d tr
ngoi hi. iu c ngha l NHNN s c lng d tr ngoi hi ln hn n nh th trng khi
cn thit. Th ba, n lc ph gi vo thng 2 nm 2011 (9,3%) cao gn gp i so vi tng hai ln ph
gi nm 2010 v iu ny c ngha l p lc ph gi thm s thp hn trong nm nay. Tuy nhin,
chng ta cn tnh n vic lm pht nm nay cao hn kh nhiu so vi nm 2010.
Din bin ca t gi thc
Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu 2000-2011
(qu I nm 2000 l k gc)

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN v IFS (2011)

Hnh 4 cho thy xu hng bin ng ca ca c t gi thc v t gi danh ngha theo qu trong
thp k qua. T gi danh ngha c xu hng tng trong ton b thp k v tng mnh hn t 2008 n

21

nay. Xu hng theo thi gian c c lng4 cho thy mc mt gi l khong 0,4%/qu trong
giai on 2000-2007 nhng tng ln mc 1,8%/qu trong giai on tip theo t u nm 2008,
tng ng vi mc tng gp 5 ln so vi giai on trc. Tuy nhin, t gi thc li c bin ng
khc bit. N tng nh vo giai 2000Q1-2003Q3 vi xu hng thi gian bng 0,75%. VND sau
c xu hng tng gi mnh thc t trong giai on 2003Q4-2008Q4 vi tc 1,5%/qu (xem Hnh
4). ng thi, khong cch gia hai t gi ngy cng m rng c bit l trong giai on 2008-2010.
So vi nm 2000, ch s CPI (i din cho mc lm pht trong nn kinh t) ca Vit Nam trong
nm 2010 tng ti xp x 123% trong khi CPI ca M ch tng 26,7% trong cng giai on. T gi
danh ngha gia ng Vit Nam v la M ch tng xp x 30,4%. Do vy, nu chng ta ly nm
2000 lm gc th ng Vit Nam ln gi thc t xp x 25,9%. Thm ch nu chng ta tnh c ln
ph gi 9,3% vo thng 2 nm 2011, tnh hnh cng khng c ci thin do t l lm pht trong su
thng u nm 2011 ln n 13,29% so vi thng 12/2010.
Bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M
(nm 2000 l nm gc)
n v: %
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Nhn dn t

101,67

104,95

104,11

104,07

103,85

100,64

91,90

84,30

84,87

80,28

Euro

105,12

88,56

73,50

68,70

80,51

72,30

65,32

68,45

66,56

71,89

Yn Nht

118,75

111,19

101,61

101,73

120,05

123,32

122,18

97,60

102,48

92,36

la Singapore

109,50

104,95

103,97

101,74

106,15

99,16

93,35

89,11

89,30

80,14

la i Loan

109,64

111,24

110,66

105,35

110,18

110,61

111,18

108,92

107,96

99,45

la c

108,49

96,87

72,80

70,50

75,53

69,31

62,90

84,35

65,14

57,49

Won Triu Tin

103,03

92,01

90,71

78,54

77,67

71,34

72,34

93,80

85,95

81,39

Baht Thi

105,00

103,27

95,10

93,96

96,88

84,86

79,26

82,63

77,91

69,88

Ringgit Malaysia

100,36

101,36

102,10

103,11

103,05

95,43

91,04

92,13

91,39

80,62

Vit Nam ng

104,57

105,24

105,68

100,13

96,29

93,02

85,84

76,40

76,63

74,10

Ngun:Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO v IFS (2011)

Xu hng thi gian l h s ca bin thi gian trong phng trnh hi quy gin n sau y = c + a * thi gian + (b*X)

22

n ht nm 2010 ng USD cng mt gi kh nhiu so vi ng tin ca cc i tc thng

mi ln ca Vit Nam (xem Bng 1). Nhng mc d cng ln gi theo chiu hng chung, nhng
ng Vit Nam vn ln gi nhiu hn so vi cc ng tin Chu nh -la Singapore, Won Triu
Tin, Ringgit Malaysia v Nhn dn t. S ln gi thc ca ng Vit Nam lm gim kh nng cnh
tranh ca hng ha xut khu ca Vit Nam trn th trng th gii.

Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD: 2000Q1-2010Q3

(k gc: 2001Q1)

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011)

23

Hnh 6. Bin ng t gi thc: h s bin ng theo qu ca mt s ng tin

(2001Q1-2010Q3)

Ngun:Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).

24

PHN II
CC NHN T QUYT NH T GI THC (HU HIU)
V MC SAI LCH
T gi thc hu hiu (REER): Khi nim, cch tnh v ng dng
Chnh sch t gi ng mt vai tr quan trng trong chnh sch kinh t v m ca mt nn kinh t
v t gi l mt trong nhng cng c quan trng nht ca chnh sch ny. V l thuyt, t gi phn nh
mc gi tng i (gia ng ni t v ng ngoi t). Khi mt nc tham gia vo thng mi v cc
giao dch khc vi mt s nc th mt ch s chung phn nh gi tr chung ca ng tin c tnh
da trn cc t gi song phng v mc thng mi gia cc nc ny vi nc ch nh. T gi
hu hiu danh ngha c tnh da trn c s ny v c nh ngha l t gi gia ng ni t vi cc
ng ngoi t ca cc nc khc ly quyn s l t trng thng mi hoc thanh ton quc t ca nc
vi cc nc kia (OECD, 2010). T gi thc hu hiu th c tnh da trn NEER v iu chnh
loi b lm pht.
Cng thc c s dng tnh NEER v REER nh sau:
n

NEER

( e jt )

w jt

j 1

REERt (e jt
j 1

Pjt
Pt

w jt

Trong :
t l thi gian
n l s lng cc i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam
ejt l t gi danh ngha ca ng tin nc j so vi VND ti thi im t (tnh theo ch s).
Lu l t gi y cng c tnh l s VND cn i ly 1 n v tin t nc j.
Pt l ch s gi hng ha trong nc
Pjt l ch s gi hng ha nc j v
wjt l t trng ca ng tin nc j ti thi im t, tng ng vi t trng thng mi ca
nc j trong tng kim ngch thng mi ca Vit Nam vi cc nc c chn.
V thc nghim, cc ch s ny rt hu ch cho vic phn tch chnh sch v tnh hnh kinh t v
m ca mt nc. Chinn (2005) ch ra nhiu trng hp trong nhng t gi hu hiu ny c th
c s dng cho nhiu vn kinh t khc nhau. C th tc gi ch ra rng nhng ch s ny c
th c s dng lm: (i) mt nhn t quyt nh xem khng hong tin t c xy ra hay khng nh
25

trong trng hp khng hong ti chnh ng nm 1997; (ii) mt bin ph thuc phn nh s thay
i trong nng sut lao ng (Hsieh (1982), De Gregorio v Wolf (1994) v Chinn (2000)); (iii) mt
bin c lp gii thch thm ht thng mi ca mt nc (trng hp thm ht thng mi ca M);
v (iv) mt ch s xc nh kh nng ph gi cnh tranh gia cc ng tin (trng hp khu vc cc
nc thuc Thi Bnh Dng, Chinn (2005)). Gn y, mt s lng ln cc nghin cu gn REER
vi tnh hnh tng trng kinh t v c th l xut khu.
Vit Nam khng cng b chnh thc mt s liu no cho t gi danh ngha hu hiu (NEER) hay
t gi thc hu hiu (REER). Tuy nhin, mt lot cc nghin cu v qun l t gi Vit Nam c s
dng NEER v REER. Mt s nghin cu thc hin vic c lng cc ch s ny, cc nghin cu
khc ch s dng chng t ngun khc. Qu Tin t Quc t IMF ch tnh ton v cng b cc ch s
ny theo nm cho giai on 2001-2006. Gn y, Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010)
tnh ton NEER v REER theo nm cho giai on 2000-2009 s dng r thng mi vi 10 i tc
thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam. Nhng ch s ny sau c cp nht n ht nm 2010
(Nguyn Th Thu Hng, 2011). Mt trong nhng c lng tng hp nht v NEER v REER cho ti
nay l ca Nguyn Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009), s dng c s liu theo nm t 1992 n
2007 v theo thng t thng 1/1995 n thng 12/2007 vi gi tin t ca 25 i tc thng mi chnh
ca Vit Nam v quyn s l t trng thng mi theo nm cho c hai chui s liu theo thng v theo
nm.
Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER
(nm 2000 l nm gc)

Ngun: Nguyn Th Thu Hng (2011)

Mc d c s khc nhau v tn sut v thi gian s dng, nhng ch s NEER v REER cho thy
nhng xu hng thng nht (i) s mt gi thc t trong giai on 2000-2003 v (ii) s ln gi thc t
trong giai on 2004-2007 (Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010)). Nguyn Th Thu Hng
26

(2011) cho thy c s ci thin i cht trong giai on 2008-2010 v REER nhng kt lun rng n
cui 2010 REER vn cao hn so vi nm 2003 hn 20% (Xem Hnh 8)
Tnh ton t gi thc hu hiu Vit Nam: s liu mi v nhng pht hin mi
Do tnh trng thiu s liu v NEER v REER Vit Nam cng nh nhng thiu st v phm vi v
tn sut s liu trong cc nghin cu hin c v cc ch s ny, nghin cu ny s khc phc nhng
hn ch ny bng cch tnh li cc ch s ny vi s liu c tn sut cao hn v phm vi rng hn.
Phm vi rng hn
Ch s gi
Cn lu rng nghin cu ca chng ti vn s dng CPI v ch s gi cho REER. y l s n
gin ha chung t Chinn (2005). Cc ch s gi c thu thp t nhiu ngun nh IMF, cc Ngn hng
D tr Lin Bang Cleveland v St.Louis v Ngn hng Trung ng ca mt s nc v nn kinh t.
Ngoi tr c ch c CPI theo qu, tt c cc nc cn li u cng b CPI hng thng. Trong mt s
trng hp do thiu s liu, chng ti s dng gc trung gian khc nhng tt c cc ch s u c
a v mt gc l thng 1/2000.
Phm vi cc nc c s dng
Ban u 79 nc c chn v s liu thng mi thng nht gia Vit Nam vi cc nc ny c
sn theo thng trn Global Trade Atlas. 79 nc ny chim hn 95% tng thng mi quc t (c
cng b bi 162 nc trong giai on 2001-2005 (UNCTAD, GTIS). Khi kt hp vi s liu v gi c
th ch cn li 45 nc nhng tng thng mi ca chung chim 78% tng thng mi quc t. T
trng thng mi ca nhng nc ny vi Vit Nam cn cao hn. Vic loi b mt s nc khi tnh
REER (s bn thm di) khng lm nh hng n gi tr v xu hng ca REER theo thi gian
nn cui cng chng ti s dng 20 nc.
Tn sut s liu ln hn
Chinn (2005) ch ra rng vic tnh REER phi da trn mc ch s dng n. Nu REER s
c s dng theo di bin ng ca t gi hoc tm kim nhng kt ni vi cc yu t c bn ca
nn kinh t th REER s c tnh vi tn sut cao hn. V chng ti mun s dng REER tm hiu
xu hng bin ng ca t gi t nm 2000 nn vic s dng s liu theo thng vi s lng ln hn
cc i tc thng mi ly t H thng Thng tin Thng mi Quc t - Global Trade Information
System (GTIS) s c li hn. Mt khc, tn sut s liu cao s b nhiu nhiu hn v c nhng sai lch
khng mong i so vi xu hng bnh thng. Trong trng hp ny, vic lm trn chui s liu v
s dng tn sut thp hn cng c nhng u im ca n. T quan im chnh sch, s liu vi tn
sut cao hn s cung cp nhiu thng tin hn v vn v gip hiu r hn nhng g ang din ra i
vi cc bin v cc iu kin kinh t v m quan trng, gip cc nh hoch nh chnh sch a ra
nhng quyt nh ng lc v ph hp nu cn. Mt khc, thu thp s liu vi tn sut cao hn cng
27

tn km hn. Thm vo , s dng s liu GTIS c nhng u im hn so vi s liu thng mi ca

Vit Nam v n cung cp thng tin nht qun v chi tit theo thi gian. Sau khi xem xt tt c nhng
vn ny, chng ta bt u tnh REER theo qu da trn s liu thng mi GTIS cho 45 nc (xem
danh sch cc nc c s dng trong Ph lc).
Cc kt qu chnh v la chn ti u v tn sut s liu v phm vi cc nc c s dng
Hnh 9 cho thy s bin ng ca 4 ch s: t gi thc hu hiu (REER), t gi thc (VND/USD),
t gi danh ngha (VND/USD) v ch s tng trng xut khu trong giai on 2000Q1-2010Q2. Ch
s tng trng xut khu c tc tng gn 5%/qu trong c giai on (xu hng theo thi gian th
cao hn (5,3%) trong giai on trc 2007). Tuy nhin REER th c hai xu hng tri chiu: mt gi
vi xu hng theo thi gian l 3,1%/qu trc 2003Q4 v ln gi trong giai on sau vi xu hng
theo thi gian l -1,5%. Kt qu ny thng nht v xu hng nhng khc bit v mc vi vi cc
nghin cu khc. Vic REER c quan h cht ch vi t gi thc VND/USD v tng trng xut
khu5 cng khng c g ng ngc nhin v M tip tc chim t trng quan trng trong thng mi
ca Vit Nam (20%). Mi quan h ny khng nht thit hm rng cc nhn t l nguyn nhn ca
cc bin ng ca REER. Chng ta s xem xt cc nhn t quyt nh REER trong phn sau.
Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011)

Mt hm hi quy gin n ca REER vi hai ch s ny cho kt qu cc h s dng v c ngha ln.

28

La chn ti u v tn sut s liu v phm vi cc nc

Nh cp t trc, chng ta phi nh i gia (i) vic a thm nc vo c lng vi s
liu c tn sut cao hn tnh REER c c thng tin chnh xc v kp thi hn v (ii) chi ph.
ng thi, phm vi cc nc cng ln v tn sut s liu cng ln th li ch bin t vic c c
thng tin chnh xc v kp thi cng gim. V vy, chng ti la chn mt mu ti u.
Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011)

Trong Hnh 9, chng ti so snh REER thu c t ba mu vi s lng nc khc nhau. Mu th

nht gm 45 nc c c t u nh m t trn. Mu hai gm 20 nc i tc ln nht ca Vit
Nam trong cc giai on 2000-2004 v/hoc 2005-2010. Mu ny c gi l Nhm 20. Mu th ba
gm 14 nc trong 200 i tc ln nht ca c hai giai on. Kt qu cho thy khng c nhiu khc
bit v xu hng gia cc mu nhng mc th c thay i ln khi s dng mu vi 14 nc. C lc
s khc bit ln ti 10%. Mu 20 nc cho thy kt qu kh st vi mu 45 nc ban u. Chng ti
kt lun rng tp hp 20 nc l xem xt bin ng ca REER. Chng ta cn lu rng hng
thng mi ca Vit Nam thay i kh thng xuyn trong qu kh v c th c trong tng lai gn
do nhng thay i trong nn kinh t th gii v thng mi nn nhm 20 ny c th cng s thay i.
Cn cp nht thng tin nu mun s dng REER lm cng c theo di.
Cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thc hu hiu v mc sai lch
o lng t gi cn bng
xc nh c mc sai lch ca t gi v tr li cho cu hi mt ng tin c b nh gi
qu cao hoc qu thp hay khng, chng ta cn phi xc nh c mc cn bng ca t gi. Hu ht
cc nghin cu v cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thng s dng khi nim T gi Cn bng C s
29

(FEER) do Williamson (1994) a ra, theo t gi cn bng c hiu l t gi thc t tha mn

ng thi c cn i bn trong v bn ngoi. Cn i bn trong t c khi nn kinh t t sn lng
tim nng cn cn i bn ngoi c xc nh bi mt cn cn thanh ton bn vng trong trung hn,
tc l mc thng d/thm ht ti khon vng lai ph hp vi dng chy ra/vo ca vn trong di hn.
T gi cn bng FEER c xu hng b qua cc yu t trong ngn hn mang tnh chu k v yu t u
c trn th trng ngoi hi. Vic xc nh t gi cn bng ny thng i hi phi s dng cc m
hnh kinh t lng v m c quy m ln hoc cc m hnh phn khi. Mt dng khc ca FEER l T
gi T nhin (NATREX) do Stein (1994, 1995, 2002) a ra cng da trn cc cn i v m bn
trong v bn ngoi. Tuy nhin, xc nh NATREX, chng ta khng ch xem xt cc iu kin trong
trung hn m cn c trong di hn khi m tng vn v n nc ngoi hi t v cc gi tr trng thi
dng ca n.
Cch tip cn FEER c Nhm t vn v T gi (CGER) ca IMF p dng nh gi t gi
ca mt s nc. Chng hn, mt nghin cu ca b phn nghin cu thuc IMF (xem IMF 2006)
s dng m hnh hi quy theo nc (bao gm cc nn kinh t pht trin v mi ni) da trn cc cch
tip cn khc nhau v t gi nhm xc nh sai lch ca t gi mt nc. Nghin cu ny s dng 7
bin s (cn i ti kha, yu t v dn s, ti sn nc ngoi rng, cn i v du th, tng trng
kinh t, 2 bin gi m t khng hong kinh t v c trung tm ti chnh) a ra mt ti khon vng
lai tiu chun. y c coi l mc cn bng ca ti khon vng lai. S sai lch ca ti khon vng
lai so vi chun c coi l nguyn nhn dn ti sai lch v t gi. Do vy t gi phi c iu chnh
phc hi li mc cn bng ny ca ti khon vng lai. Mc iu chnh c tnh ton da vo
co gin ca t gi i vi ti khon vng lai.
Mc d cch tip cn ny kh tt nhng vic p dng n cho mi mt nc n l c th c mt
s l hng. Vic p dng mt chun chung cho cc nc khc nhau c cc iu kin th ch khc nhau
v do c cc phn ng chnh sch khc nhau i vi cng mt c sc vi cc knh tc ng khc
nhau cha chc l tt. Trn thc t, mi quan h gia ti khon vng lai v cc nhn t nh hng
khc mi nc khng ch ph thuc vo cc c im ring ca mi nc m quan trng hn cn
ph thuc vo mc nhy cm ca ti khon vng lai i vi cc nhn t ny. M hnh hi quy theo
nc khng th tch bit c nhng khc bit ny m n gi nh cc yu t l ng nht. Cc
cch tip cn khc c m t trong nghin cu ca IMF cng gp phi vn tng t. Do , vic
p dng cc phng php ny cho trng hp Vit Nam cn phi rt thn trng bi v cc vn
cp trn.
Mt cch tip cn khc l da vo khi nim T gi cn bng hnh vi (BEER) do MacDonald
(1997) v Clark v MacDonald (1998) a ra trong lin h t gi thc t vi mt nhm cc bin
kinh t v m bi mt phng trnh duy nht. Phng trnh ny sau s c c lng thng k s
dng chui s liu quan st c v cc gi tr di hn ca cc bin c s nhm c lng t gi cn
bng. Mt dng khc ca BEER l T gi Cn bng Di hn (PEER) l phng php xc nh t gi
30

cn bng s dng vc t ng tch hp phn gi t gi thnh cu phn di hn v ngn hn trong

cu phn di hn chnh l t gi cn bng. Mt cch tip cn na l da vo vic c lng chui s
liu theo thi gian mi quan h ng tch hp trong di hn gia t gi thc t v cc i lng c bn
trong trung hn v di hn nh s khc bit v li sut, ti sn nc ngoi rng, nng sut, gi tng
i gia hng XK-NK. Chng ti cho rng phng php ny thch hp hn c cho trng hp Vit
Nam trong iu kin hn ch v s liu. Chng ta s xem xt c th phng php ny di y.
Cch tip cn BEER cng c p dng trong rt nhiu nghin cu gn y v t gi. Trong m
hnh BEER a ra bi Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004), cc bin gii thch bao gm s khc bit v
nng sut, gi tng i gia hng thng mi v phi thng mi (phn nh hiu ng BalassaSamuelson), ti sn nc ngoi rng, gi tng i gia hng XK-NK, m ca nn kinh t (t
trng tng kim ngch XNK trong GDP), s khc bit v li sut thc, chi tiu chnh ph v FDI.
Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004) s dng 4 phng php xc nh t gi cn bng: (i) phng
php lc Hodrick-Prescott, (ii) phng php lc Band-Pass, (iii) phng php Engle-Granger, v (iv)
phng php ARDL. Hai phng php cui l da trn m hnh BEER ni trn.
Jongwanich (2009) a ra mt phng php khc hon ton c th thc hin c trong thc t
xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi s dng m hnh BEER. Cc bin c bn m Jongwanich s
dng cng kh tng ng vi nhm cc bin s m Frait v cc ng tc gi (2009) s dng. Tuy
nhin, t gi thc m Jongwanich (2009) s dng khng phi l t gi song phng m l t gi a
phng (REER). Sau khi tnh ton REER v c c cc s liu v cc bin kinh t c bn,
Jongwanich (2009) s dng th tc Johansen xc nh mi quan h ng tch hp trong di hn
gia cc bin v qua xc nh c t gi cn bng.
Sau khi xc nh c t gi cn bng th vic tip theo s l xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi.
C Jongwanich (2009) v Frait cng cc ng tc gi (2004) u cho rng mc sai lch ca t gi
l s khc bit gia t gi hin hnh v mc cn bng trong di hn ca n. C hai khi nim v mc
sai lch ca t gi. Khi nim th nht l sai lch hin ti, chnh l s khc bit gia t gi hin
hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi tr hin hnh ca cc bin kinh t c bn. Sai lch
hin ti chnh l s bin ng ngn hn ca t gi. Khi nim th 2 l tng sai lch, l s khc bit
gia t gi hin hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi tr bn vng ca cc bin kinh t
c bn.
Ging nh Clark v MacDonald (1998) v Jongwanich (2009), chng ta nh ngha t gi thc
hin hnh nh sau:

RERt 1' Z1t 2' Z 2t 'Tt t

(0.1)

31

trong T l nhm cc bin ngn hn, Z1t v Z 2t l cc bin kinh t c bn trung v di hn. Gi
Z1t v Z 2t l cc gi tr bn vng ca cc bin kinh t c bn trung v di hn th t gi cn bng c
xc nh bi cng thc sau:

RERt* 1' Z1t 2' Z 2 t

(0.2)

CM t 'Tt t

(0.3)

TM t 'Tt t 1' ( Z1t Z1t ) 2' ( Z 2t Z 2 t )

(0.4)

Sai lch hin ti l

Tng sai lch l

M hnh cho Vit Nam

Nghin cu ca chng ti v t gi cn bng v mc sai lch ca t gi s da trn cch tip
cn BEER nh Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004) v Jongwanich (2009) lm. T gi thc cn bng
c xc nh t ngang bng li sut ngm nh (UIP) v ph thuc vo cc bin kinh t v m c bn
nh s khc bit v nng sut, ti sn nc ngoi rng, gi tng i gia hng XK-NK, m ca
nn kinh t, s khc bit v li sut thc, chi tiu chnh ph v FDI. Phng trnh t gi nh sau6:

REER f ( NFA, PROD, TOT , OPEN , GEXP, FDI , RR)

(0.5)

NFA c d on c mi quan h ngc chiu vi REER. S gia tng ca NFA thng c tc

ng v mt thu nhp lm tng cu ni a. khi phc cc cn i bn trong v bn ngoi, gi ca
hng phi thng mi phi tng so vi gi hng thng mi. Do , REER gim xung (tc l ln gi)
Tng trng nng sut khu vc mu dch ni a so vi cc nc bn hng (PROD) c tc ng
ngc chiu ti REER thng qua hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson. S gia tng ca PROD lm tng cu
v lao ng trong nc trong ngnh sn xut hng mu dch. Di iu kin v vic lm y , lao
ng s b ht t khu vc hng mu dch sang khu vc hng phi mu dch. Do mc lng khu
vc phi mu dch s tng lm tng gi hng phi mu dch. Kt qu l REER s gim.
S ci thin v gi tng i XNK (TOT) c ngha l gi XK tng ln tng i so vi gi NK.
iu ny s nh hng ti t gi REER thng qua hiu ng thu nhp v thay th. Mt mt, thu nhp
tng lm tng cu ni a, qua lm REER gim. Mt khc, gi hng NK thp tng i c ngha l
lng cu v hng mu dch tng ln v lng cu v hng phi mu dch gim xung. Hiu ng thay
th ny do dn ti vic gi hng phi mu dch gim lm t gi tng. V hiu ng thu nhp v thay
th ngc chiu nhau nn xu hng tc ng ca TOT ti REER l khng r rng. Nh Jongwanich

V vic xy dng phng trnh ny, xem Clark v MacDonald (1998), Jongwanich (2009).

32

(2009) ch ra, rt nhiu nghin cu thc nghim cho thy cc nc ang pht trin, s ci thin
v TOT c xu hng lm gim REER v hiu ng thu nhp thng mnh hn hiu ng thay th cc
nc ny.
m ca ln hn ca nn kinh t dn ti cu v hng mu dch cao hn. khi phc trng
thi cn bng th gi hng phi mu dch phi gim lm dch chuyn cu t hng mu dch sang hng
phi mu dch. Do , REER c d on l s c quan h thun chiu vi m ca ca nn kinh t.
Tc ng ca chi tiu chnh ph (GEXP) i vi t gi REER l khng r rng v ph thuc vo
vic chnh ph chi nhiu vo hng mu dch hay phi mu dch. Tng chi tiu chnh ph vo hng phi
mu dch c ngha l cu v hng phi mu dch tng v gi ca n cng tng ln. Do REER s
gim. Mt khc nu chnh ph chi nhiu vo hng mu dch th c tc ng ngc li i vi t gi.
Nu nh chnh ph chi phn ln vo hng phi mu dch th chng ta on rng GEXP v REER c
quan h ngc chiu.
C chnh lch v li sut thc v FDI u c d on l c mi quan h nghch chiu vi t
gi. Chnh lch li sut cng cao lm cho ngun vn chy vo trong nc cng nhiu trong khi FDI
cao cng ng ngha vi vic dng vn chy vo s cao. Do t gi REER s gim phc hi cn
bng bn trong v bn ngoi.
Bng 2. c lng REER di hn cho mi quc gia:
Tm tt kt qu cho cc nc thu nhp thp (LICs) v cc nn kinh t mi ni (EMEs)

LICs
S

EMEs

Phn trm

Phn trm

S h s di hn c c lng

52

Trong s c ngha thng k l

29

S h s di hn c c lng c du
khng r rng

30

Trong s c ngha thng k

16

53,3

24

100

Trong c du ng v c ngha
thng k

10

33,3

16

66,7

51

55,8

48

94,1

24

Ngun: Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Lewis, and Aurlie Martin. (2007)

33

M hnh ny c s dng kh nhiu trong nhng nm gn y v cho nhng kt qu rt hu

ch. Tuy nhin, cn phi ch mt s yu t lm cho vic c lng, p dng v din gii REER
cc nc ang pht trin tr nn phc tp hn. Cc yu t ny gm c cc c sc v gi tng i
gia XK-NK, nhng thay i thng xuyn v mt chnh tr v th ch, s khng hon ho ca th
trng, tnh d thay i ca cc dng ti chnh, cc vn v iu hnh t gi v kim sot vn
(Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Lewis, and Aurlie Martin. (2007)). Do vy vic c lng REER c th c
kt qu ngoi d on v kh gii thch. Nhm nghin cu ca IMF ch ra rng ch 1/3 cc h s di
hn c lng c trong cc m hnh cc nc LICs l ng v du ng thi c ngha thng k
(Bng 2)

La chn m hnh v kt qu thc nghim cho Vit Nam

Do mt s kh khn v s sn c v tin cy ca s liu, chng ti tin hnh c lng t gi
REER Vit Nam vi s liu theo qu bt u t qu I nm 2000 tr li y.
S liu s dng c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai lch ca t gi l s liu chui thi
gian theo qu, ly ch yu t 2 ngun chnh Tng cc Thng k v IFS cho giai on 2000 2010.
NFA c tnh theo t l ca NFA ca ton b h thng ngn hng (c s d liu IFS) trn GDP danh
ngha (ly t GSO). PROD l t l gia GDP thc t bnh qun trn lao ng ca Vit Nam v ca
M, dng lm bin thay th cho khc bit v nng sut gia Vit Nam v cc bn hng chnh. S liu
c tnh ton da trn s liu ly t Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam v c s d liu ca Ngn hng
D tr Lin bang M. TOT c tnh bng t l gia ch s gi xut khu v ch s gi nhp khu ly
t Tng cc Thng k. m ca ca nn kinh t Vit Nam c thay th bng t l gia tng kim
ngch xut nhp khu trn GDP danh ngha, tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc Thng k. Chi tiu
chnh ph, GEXP, l t l gia chi tiu chnh ph trn GDP danh ngha. S liu ly t Tng cc Thng
k v B Ti chnh. Cui cng l FDI o bng t l u t trc tip nc ngoi trn GDP danh ngha
ly t c s d liu IFS. Tt c cc bin, tr REER, u c iu chnh tnh ma v bi cc tc gi.
La chn m hnh
Chng ti s dng th tc tiu chun c lng REER. Trc ht, chng ti s dng cc k
thut c lng v m hnh thch hp xc nh cc yu t tc ng ti REER trong di hn. Sau
gi tr c lng BEER s c tnh bng gi tr c lng di hn ca REER da trn gi tr lc ca
cc bin kinh t c bn. S chnh lch gia gi tr hin hnh ca REER v gi tr BEER c lng
c chnh l lch ca t gi. Phn quan trng nht trong th tc ny chnh l vic xc nh m
hnh.
Nh cp trn, chng ta c th s dng m hnh iu chnh sai s c lng cc h s
di hn cho phng trnh REER. Trong trng hp c nhiu hn 1 vc t ng tch hp th phng
trnh di hn c th kh xc nh hn. Kim nh v ng tch hp cho thy c 5 vc t ng tch hp
34

(Bng 3). V vy, vic xc nh mi quan h trong di hn vi ch 1 phng trnh l kh khn. Do

m hnh iu chnh sai s c v nh khng thch hp trong trng hp ny.
Bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp:
tr (sai phn bc 1): 1 n 3
Kim nh Trace Test

Kim nh Max-Eigen

S phng trnh
ng tch hp gi
nh

Gi tr
Eigen

Thng k
Trace

Gi tr kim
nh 0.05

Thng k
Max-Eigen

Gi tr kim
nh 0,05

Khng *

0,864

233,043

95,754

73,761

40,078

Ti a c 1 *

0,780

159,282

69,819

56,050

33,877

Ti a c 2 *

0,699

103,232

47,856

44,467

27,584

Ti a c 3 *

0,562

58,765

29,797

30,567

21,132

Ti a c 4 *

0,531

28,198

15,495

28,023

14,265

Ti a c 5

0,005

0,175

3,841

0,175

3,841

Ch : Kim nh Trace cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05

Kim nh gi tr Max-eigenvalue cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05
Do nguyn nhn cp trn, chng ti s s dng m hnh Phn phi tr t hi quy a thc
(Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag) ARPDL. V l thuyt, m hnh ny c dng nh sau:

trong REER l t gi thc hu hiu

FDI: t l FDI trn GDP
NFA: t l ti sn nc ngoi rng trn GDP
OPEN: ch s m ca ca nn kinh t
PROD: ch s chnh lch nng sut
tt c cc bin trn u dng lgarit;
35

Phn t hi quy c nh ngha thuc mt trong cc dng sau:

AR(1) :

AR(2) :

AR(4) :

v AR(1,2):

Cc bc 1, 2, v 4 th hin tc ng tr sau 1 qu, na nm, v 1 nm. Vic la chn dng no s

ph thuc vo cc tiu ch AIC v SBC. Bng 4 tm tt cc kt qu c lng ca m hnh vi 4 la
chn t hi quy nh cp trn. T kt qu ny, chng ti quyt nh chn dng t hi quy AR(1)
v n cho gi tr AIC v SBC nh nht.
Bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy
AR1
H s

AR12
Thng

H s

k t

AR2

Thng

H s

k t

AR4
Thng

H s

k t

Thng
k t

FDI

-0.056

-1.076

-0.071

-1.238

-0.094

-1.916

-0.099

-1.990

NFA

0.504

3.900

0.502

3.704

0.511

4.271

0.537

4.699

OPEN

-0.214

-1.619

-0.255

-1.524

-0.267

-1.724

-0.402

-2.427

TOT

-0.191

-0.569

-0.374

-0.910

-0.385

-1.089

-0.095

-0.298

PROD

-4.328

-5.609

-3.790

-3.372

-3.484

-4.190

-3.678

-3.817

R-squared

0.954

0.955

0.949

0.950

Adjusted R-squared

0.933

0.931

0.925

0.921

Akaike info criterion

-3.662

-3.598

-3.535

-3.419

Schwarz criterion

-3.139

-3.026

-3.007

-2.835

F-statistic

46.749

40.237

40.469

32.950

Durbin-Watson stat

2.061

1.831

1.334

1.134

C th thy rng ngoi NFA th tt c cc h s c lng ca cc bin c lp u cho du ng

nh d on, tuy rng ch c 2 h s l c ngha thng k. H s c lng ca NFA c du ngc
vi d on ban u nhng li c ngha thng k. iu ny cng th hin trong cc c lng s
dng dng t hi quy khc v kh nht qun. Do vy, chng ti kt lun rng c mi quan h di hn
36

gia cc bin t gi, ti sn nc ngoi rng, chnh lch nng sut, m ca nn kinh t v FDI.
Trong cc bin c bn th chnh lch nng sut, m ca nn kinh t v FDI mt mc no
c tc ng nh d on trong di hn ti t gi. So vi kt qu c lng cho cc nc c thu nhp
thp hoc cc nn kinh t mi ni trong Chinn (2005) th c lng REER ca Vit Nam cng cho kt
qu kh tt. C mt s vn cn l gii, chng hn nh tc ng tri chiu ca NFA ti t gi cn
bng nhng nhn chung kt qu c lng l c ngha. Nu chnh lch v nng sut tng 1% s lm
REER gim 4,33% (hng Vit Nam ln gi) trong khi 1% tng ln ca FDI lm cho t gi thc hu
hiu gim khong 0,056%. Bng 4 cng cho thy nu m ca ca nn kinh t tng 1% s lm t gi
gim 0,21%. im cui cng c th thy l mi quan h gia NFA v REER Vit Nam khng ng
nh l thuyt d bo khi m theo c lng s gia tng ca NFA thm 1% s lm REER tng 0,5%.
Hnh 10 v cc gi tr REER thc t v cc gi tr c lng BEER. Trc ht c th thy rng,
nu xt v bin ng theo thi gian th t gi cn bng theo c lng bin ng theo cng chiu vi
REER trong 10 nm qua, tc l gim gi cho ti qu cui cng ca nm 2003 v ln gi sau tr i.
iu th hai, khi so snh vi gi tr cn bng, ta c th thy l t gi hin hnh b nh gi cao trong
giai on t qu 1 nm 2000 cho ti qu 2 nm 2002. Sau giai on ny th t gi thc hu hiu li
lin tc b nh gi thp (so vi gi tr cn bng) cho ti u nm 2008. K t tr i t gi REER li
i vo giai on nh gi cao ging nh giai on u nhng nm 2000 nhng mc cao hn trc
v cho ti gia nm 2010 b nh gi cao hn 20% so vi gi tr cn bng. iu ny lm gim sc
cnh tranh v gi ca hng Vit Nam so vi cc nc khc.
Hnh 10. T gi cn bng
8.4

8.4

8.5

8.5

8.6

8.6

8.7

8.7

8.8

8.8

8.9

8.9

9.0
00

01

02

03

04

VNREER
VNREER_HP

05

06

07

08

09

REE_PDL_AR1
BEER_PDL

9.0
00:1

02:1
BEER_PDL

04:1

06:1
REE_PDL_AR1

08:1

10:1
VNREER

nh gi chi tit mc sai lch ca t gi, chng ti tnh ton v v th 2 loi lch t
gi l sai lch hin ti v tng sai lch, kt qu c trnh by Hnh 11. Giai on trc nm 2002,
tng sai lch l m (tng ng vi nh gi qu cao) trong c thi im t ti trn m 20%.
Giai on tip theo l giai on t gi b nh gi thp vi tng sai lch dao ng trong khong 0
n dng 18% cho ti u nm 2008. Trong nhng nm gn y, mc lch ca t gi hin hnh
37

so vi mc cn bng dao ng trong khong t 0 n m 20%. T Hnh 11 cng c th thy rng phn
ln s sai lch v t gi l do s tc ng ca cc yu t ngn hn v lch hin ti chim phn ln
trong tng lch ca t gi.
Hnh 11. Sai lch ca T gi: Tng sai lch v Sai lch hin ti
-.3

-.20
-.15

-.2

-.10

-.1
-.05
.00

.0

.05

.1
.10

.2
00:1

02:1

04:1

06:1

08:1

10:1

.15
00:1

02:1

04:1

06:1

08:1

10:1

Kt lun
Kt qu c lng t gi thc hu hiu di hn v tnh ton sai lch ca t gi khng nh
mt thc t l ng tin ca Vit Nam lin tc b nh gi cao trong 3 nm u ca thp k va qua
v tip tc xu hng trong 3 nm gn y vi mc cn nghim trng hn trc. Xen gia hai
giai on ny l giai on m ng tin b nh gi thp nhng khng n nh v c lc b lch ti
20% trc khi khng hong ton cu xy ra. Kt qu ny cn phi kim tra thm, bao gm c cc phn
tch nhy cm ca vic la chn m hnh v cc bin s. Tuy nhin, kt qu ny cho thy c rt
nhiu vn trong cch m chnh ph v ngn hng trung ng iu hnh chnh sch t gi. Chng
hn, nhiu ngi cng mun bit c phi s sai lch v t gi ny l kt qu ca cc hnh ng c ch
nhm mt mc ch chnh sch no hay khng, v cc c quan chc nng c nhn bit c s
sai lch v t gi v c bin php no gim bt s sai lch ny hay khng? nh hng ca s sai
lch t gi i vi mt s ch s kinh t l nh th no? Tr li c cc cu hi ny s gip cho vic
iu hnh nn kinh t tr nn thun li hn trong tng lai. Tuy vic tr li tt c cc cu hi ny l
khng d dng, chng ti cng mun lm r hn mt trong cc vn nu trn, l tc ng
ca t gi ti xut khu. Phn tip theo s i vo nghin cu vn ny mt cch c th.

38

PHN III
TC NG CA T GI N XUT KHU: M HNH VECM

c nhiu cng trnh nghin cu n tc ng ca t gi n xut khu ni ring v cn cn

thng mi ni chung. Cc cng trnh nghin cu ny nhn chung u xy dng trn c s hm xut
khu v hm cu nhp khu. Thm vo , phn ng cc nghin cu trong lnh vc ny tp trung vo
tc ng ca t gi n tng xut/nhp khu ca c nn kinh t (Senhadji (1998), Vasquez and
Charquero (2007), Garg and Ramesh (2005) trn c s kim nh iu kin Marshall-Lerner v tc
ng ca t gi n vic ci thin cn cn thanh ton hoc cn cn thng mi.
Cng c nhng cng trnh nh gi tc ng ca t gi n tng sn phm ring bit. Konandreas
v cc ng tc gi (1978) c lng hm cu nhp khu i vi la m ca M t 5 khu vc khc
nhau. Theo cch c lng ny, cu nhp khu la m ca M l hm ph thuc vo lng la m sn
xut ti ch (c coi nh mt hng thay th vi sn phm la m M), gi c tng i gia la m
ti ch v la m nhp khu t M, thu nhp bnh qun v lng la m c xut khu t M theo
chng trnh u i c bit. Theo m hnh ny th t gi c th tc ng n xut khu la m ca
M theo hai knh tc ng chnh. l gi tng i (hay t gi thc gia la M v ng tin a
phng v knh th hai l thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tnh theo USD. Mt nghin cu khc ca
Gunawardanav cc ng tc gi (2008) cp n tc ng ca t gi n mt sn phm. l m
hnh hm cu ca Thi Lan v sn phm t sa ca Australia. Cng trnh ny s dng hm cu nhp
khu truyn thng trong bin gi c v bin t gi c tch ring ra. Gi tng i c xc nh
nh l t s gia gi xut khu ca M vi ch s gi ca cc i th cnh tranh trn th trng nc
nhp khu

nh dng m hnh
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti s dng m hnh iu chnh sai s vector (vector error correction
model (VECM)) nh gi tc ng ca t gi n xut khu ca Vit Nam ra cc th trng khc.
V mt nguyn tc, m hnh ny c th p dng cho c bin s v khi lng xut khu v tng kim
ngch xut khu cho mt sn phm nht nh. Tuy nhin vic s dng bin kim ngch xut khu thay
cho khi lng xut khu trong m hnh c mt s u im nht nh:
Cc kt qu suy ra t 2 m hnh (s dng khi lng xut khu hay kim ngch xut
khu) c th khng khc nhau nhiu v ngha thng k. S khc bit c chng s l mc
nh hng, th hin gi tr ca cc h s c c lng. Thc ra v kim ngch xut khu
bng tch ca khi lng v gi c nn khi a vo m hnh di dng hm logarit, chng ta c
th c 2 m hnh tng ng vi cc sai s khc nhau. Trong c hai trng hp th c lng
thu c u l c lng khng chch.
39

 S dng hm c lng vi bin gii thch l khi lng xut khu s kh ch ra tc

ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi hoc cn cn thanh ton. Do vy s hn ch ngha
ca m hnh. Ngc li c lng hm kim ngch xut khu s cho ta nhng thng tin nhn
bit tt hn v tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi/cn cn thanh ton.
im cui cng l phm vi p dng ca m hnh vi bin gii thch l kim ngch xut
khu s rng hn v trong nhiu trng hp thng tin v khi lng xut khu l khng c
c hoc kh tip cn
Bn cnh mt trong nhng li th ca vic s dng m hnh VECM l c th c c cc
thng tin v tc ng ca t gi trong di hn v ngn hn, cc hm phn ng (impulse function)
M hnh VECM s dng trong nghin cu ny c dng chung nh sau:
p

EXPORTt 1t 1 1i EXPORTt i 1j EXRATE t j 1DEMANDt u1t (0.6)

i 1

j 1

EXRATE t 2t 1 2i EXPORTt i 2 j EXRATE t j 2DEMANDt u 2t (0.7)

i 1

j 1

EXPORTt c EXRATE t t

(0.8)

Trong :
EXPORT l log ca xut khu ca Vit Nam sang M
DEMAND l log ca tng kim ngch nhp khu ca M (theo tng sn phm). Gi tr ny c
coi nh l bin i din cho tng nhu cu ca M v sn phm trn
EXRATE l t gi thc ca ng Vit Nam
Phng trnh (0.8) th hin phng trnh cn bng trong di hn hoc vector ng tch hp gia
t gi v xut khu. Cc h s 1 v 2 trong cc phng trnh (0.6) v (0.7) th hin tc iu chnh
n trng thi cn bng di hn ca nn kinh t.
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti tch hai thnh t: t gi danh ngha v ch s gi c ra khi bin
t gi thc xem xt tc ng ca c hai bin s ny: t gi danh ngha v ch s gi c n xut
khu. Cch tip cn ny c nhng u im hn so vi vic nghin cu tc ng ca t gi thc bi l
trn thc t cc giao dch thng mi gia nh xut khu v nhp khu thng c da trn c s t
gi danh ngha (c th iu chnh theo ch s gi c trong mt vi trng hp). Do vy bin t gi
danh ngha s l ph hp hn so vi bin t gi thc trong vic ra cc quyt nh v xut khu. Cc
doanh nghip vn tip tc xut khu ngay c khi t gi thc c chiu hng tng gi trong khi t gi
40

danh ngha vn gim. Thc t v xut khu ca Vit Nam trong thi gian quan khi t gi thc v t gi
danh ngha tin trin theo hai xu hng ngc chiu nhau do mc lm pht tng cao c v nh ng h
lun im ny. C th coi y nh mt hin tng o gic v t gi khi nh xut khu vn tip tc
xut khu khi thu nhp thc t b gim do t gi thc tng trong khi t gi danh ngha gim, tng t
nh hin tng o gic tin t trn th trng lao ng khi ngi lao ng tng cu lao ng khi tin
lng danh ngha tng mc d tin lng thc t gim.
Do vy m hnh p dng trong nghin cu ny bao gm 3 bin c bn ni sinh: kim ngch xut
khu EXPORT, t gi danh ngha EXRATE, v ch s gi c PRICE. Dng tng qut ca m hnh
VECM c th hin trong cc phng trinh di y:
+
(0.9)
+
(0.10)
+
(0.11)
Trong

l cc vector ng tch hp. Tt c cc bin u dng logarith t nhin .

Trong m hnh ny cc bin tng nhp khu ca M USIMPORT v ch s gi c ca M,

USPRICE l cc bin ngoi sinh. Gi thit ny c xy dng trn c s l khi lng xut khu ca
Vit Nam vo th trng M l cha ln n mc chi phi th trng M c v gi c v khi
lng giao dch.
Mt trong nhng vn c quan tm hin nay nc ta l nh hng ca Trung Quc ti cc
th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam. Mt mt chnh sch t gi ca Trung quc theo hng duy tr
ng nhn dn t yu c tc dng thc y xut khu ca Trung Quc do vy c th nh hng n
cc i th cnh tranh khc trn cng mt th trng. Vit Nam c nhiu im chung v danh mc
hng ha xut khu vo cc th trng chnh nh Trung quc (dt may, giy dp, in t). V vy c
th xut khu ca Vit Nam b nh hng ca xut khu t Trung Quc. Mt khc nu l cc mt
hng b sung th tc ng cnh tranh s theo chiu khc hn. xem xt nh hng ca c 2 yu t:
kim ngch xut khu v t gi ng nhn dn t n xut khu ca Vit Nam trn cng mt th trng,
chng ti m rng m hnh bng cch b sung thm 2 bin ngoi sinh l kim ngch xut khu ca
Trung Quc v t gi nhn dn t so vi ng tin bn a ti th trng nhp khu. M hnh m rng
vn l m hnh VECM vi 3 bin ngoi sinh v 2 vector ng tch hp
41

S liu
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti dung 2 ngun s liu thng mi chnh c lng m hnh.
i vi th trng M, chng ti s dng c s liu ca US Trade data vi mc SITC cp 3 (3-digit
SITC). Theo cch phn loi ny th c ti 262 nhm sn phm. Tuy nhin trong m hnh, chng ti
ch s dng 195 nhm sn phm v mt s nhm sn phm khc khng c s liu cho vic c
lng m hnh. Bn cnh chng ti cng s dng s liu thng mi ca Global Trade Information
System (GTIS) trong phn loi HS cp 2 (2-digit HS) cho c lng m hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam
vo cc th trng M, chu u (nhm 15 nc s dng ng tin chung Euro), Nht Bn v Hn
Quc. y l nhng thi trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam.
S liu v ch s gi v t gi ca Vit Nam c ly ra t ngun ca Tng cc Thng k v
Vietcombank. Cc s liu ny cng c s dng trong vic tnh REER phn trc. S liu v t
gi v ch s gi c ca cc i tc cng l nhng s liu c s dng trong phn tnh REER ni
trn.

Cc kt qu chnh
C 3 m hnh ni trn u c c lng sau khi thc hin cc kim nh thng k v tch
hp, vector ng tch hp. iu ng ni l cc kt qu kh nht qun, bt k ngun s liu s dng
(SITC hay GTIS). Vic thm cc bin ni sinh lin quan n Trung Quc c lm thay i v mc
tc ng ca t gi n xut khu, nhng khng lm thay i n chiu hng tc ng chung. M
hnh p dng cho cc th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam cng c cng chung mt kt lun: trn 2/3
kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam chu nh hng tch cc ca vic gim gi danh ngha ng Vit
Nam. Ni cch khc, vic gim gi ng Vit Nam v tng th c th c li cho xut khu. S dng
cc kt qu t vic c lng m hnh VECM, c bit l thng tin v hm phn hi xung (impulse
response function), ta c th biu din kt qu tc ng ca t gi n xut khu thng qua ma trn tc
ng hai thi k di y
Theo bng ny, cc gi tr ca hm phn hi xung thi k c th hin trn cc ct cn gi
tr lin quan n hm phn hi xung thi k 2 c th hin theo dng. Bng 5 cho thy c ti 90%
kim ngch xut khu c th c ci thin ti giai on 2 sau khi ng Vit Nam gim gi, v ch c
10% b gim do tc ng ny. Tuy nhin tc ng n ci thin xut khu s suy gim dn theo thi
gian do tc ng iu chnh ca th trng v sau hai giai on tip theo ch cn 3/4 kim ngch xut
khu cn c kh nng tip tc ci thin. y l mt kt qu rt kh quan v tc ng tch cc ca vic
gim gi ng tin Vit Nam i vi xut khu. Xem xt c th v cc ngnh xut khu c hng
li t vic gim gi ng Vit Nam cho thy y l cc nhm hng hin ang dn u kim ngch xut
khu vo th trng M nh dt may, da giy, thc phm, g.

42

Bng 5. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung:

Th trng M, s liu SICT
Giai on 2, Giai on 4

Gim di

Gim t 0-

Tng t 0-

Tng s

10%

2.5%

2.5%

Gim di 10%

7,07

0,11

0,28

7,45

Gim t 0- 2.5%

0,31

0,00

1,85

2,16

Tng t 0-2.5%

12,27

3,46

74,54

90,27

Tng s

19,60

3,58

76,68

100,00

Ngun: Tnh ton ca cc tc gi

Kt qu tng t (vi mc khc nhau) i vi cc th trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam
nh Hn Quc, Nht Bn, khu vc ng Euro trong c hai kch bn: c hoc khng c yu t Trung
Quc c th hin trong Bng 6.
Cc kt qu mt ln na li khng nh tc ng tch cc ca vic gim gi ng Vit Nam n
xut khu. Tuy nhin c mt im khc bit ng lu l tc ng ny khng ch ph thuc vo nhm
hng ha m cn ph thuc vo cc th trng (mc d hai yu t ny khng hon ton loi tr nhau).
Cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc c v khng c phn ng ln i vi yu t t gi. Kim ngch
xut khu c th c ci thin nh gim gi ng Vit Nam ch chim khong 50%, trong khi con s
ny trong 2 th trng M v khi ng Euro l khong 3/4. Tuy nhin khi tnh n yu t Trung Quc
th tc ng rng ca t gi li tr v tng t nh trn cc th trng khc. iu cho thy yu t
Trung Quc t ra mnh hn trn cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc i vi Vit Nam. C l c cu
th trng v c cu xut khu ca Vit Nam l nhng nhn t c th l gii hin tng trn.
Bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung:
Cc th trng xut khu chnh, s liu GTIS
Khng c yu t Trung Quc
Gim

Gim

Tng

Tng

di

t 0-

t 0-

Tng

2,5%

10%

2,5%

2,5%

0,6

0,0

4,6

4,0

1,7

0,0

5,6

21,5

0,3

21,9

0,0

26,3

0,1

26,4

Gim

Gim

Tng

di

t 0-

t 0-

10%

2,5%

Gim di 10%

4,0

Gim t 0- 2,5%

0,0

Giai on 2

C yu t Trung Quc

EU15

43

Tng t 0-2,5%

0,0

0,1

73,5

73,6

0,0

0,0

68,0

68,0

Tng s

4,0

22,2

73,8

100,0

4,0

27,9

68,1

100,0

Gim di 10%

5,1

8,0

0,0

13,1

1,9

6,5

0,0

8,4

Gim t 0- 2,5%

0,0

14,1

0,2

14,3

0,0

4,6

0,1

4,7

Tng t 0-2,5%

0,0

23,7

48,8

72,6

0,0

1,1

85,8

87,0

Tng s

5,1

45,8

49,0

100,0

1,9

12,2

85,9

100,0

Gim di 10%

1,3

22,9

0,0

24,1

1,7

21,5

0,0

23,2

Gim t 0- 2,5%

0,0

6,9

5,0

11,9

0,0

6,8

4,8

11,6

Tng t 0-2,5%

0,0

9,9

54,0

63,9

0,0

0,9

64,2

65,2

Tng s

1,3

39,7

59,0

100,0

1,7

29,2

69,0

100,0

Gim di 10%

2,0

7,2

0,0

9,2

1,0

4,4

0,0

5,4

Gim t 0- 2,5%

0,0

13,2

0,1

13,3

0,0

6,0

0,2

6,2

Tng t 0-2,5%

0,0

2,7

74,8

77,5

0,0

16,4

72,0

88,4

Tng s

2,0

23,1

75,0

100,0

1,0

26,8

72,2

100,0

Nht Bn

Hn Quc

Ngun: Tnh ton ca cc tc gi

Kt lun
Kt qu c lng m hnh VECM cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit
Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun
ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi trong vic
thc y xut khu. Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c ny cn phi tnh ton n
cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh
phn tch chnh sch khc.

44

PHN IV
THO LUN CHNH SCH V KT LUN

T nhng kt qu phn tch trn y c th rt ra mt s bi hc chnh sch nh sau:

Th nht, vic phn tch din bin ca t gi v cc bin php iu hnh t gi trong hai nm
gn y cho thy, cho n thi im tin hnh nghin cu ny (qu II nm 2011) c nhiu bin
php iu chnh t gi tch cc t pha cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong vic iu chnh t gi theo
gn th trng nhm gim bt p lc trn th trng ngoi hi do tc ng ca lm pht cao trong nc
v nhng bin ng trn th trng vng trong nc v quc t. Cc ng thi gim gi VND trong
thng 8 nm 2010 khi p lc trn th trng ngoi hi cn cha mnh v gim su gi VND vo thng
2 nm 2011 th hin mt chnh sch t gi kh linh hot, theo hng th trng hn. Tuy nhin Ngn
hng Nh nc vn cn p dng kh nhiu cc bin php hnh chnh trong iu hnh t gi c bit
trong thi gian gn y. Mc sai lch t gi kh cao trong thi gian di (nh s ni phn sau) cng l
nhng minh chng cho kt lun ny.
p lc (gim gi) trn th trng ngoi hi vn cn mnh v c chiu hng tip tc gia tng
trong thi gian gn y m bng chng l mc gi thp trn th trng bn ngoi v st mc trn quy
nh). Xu hng ny c th s tip tc trong thi gian trc mt, k c u nm 2012 do p lc t lm
pht, thm ht cn cn thng mi, tng trng tn dng bng ngoi t v cc biu hin u c. iu
i hi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cn tip tc cam kt i theo hng th trng trong qun l
t gi nh nhng nm gn y khi phc nim tin ca th trng.
Hai l cch c lng t gi thc hu hiu (real effective exchange rate REER) cng ch ra
rng y l thng tin hu ch c th gip cc nh nghin cu, hoch nh chnh sch s dng trong
vic phn tch, ra quyt nh, nh gi cc bin php chnh sch lin quan n t gi, thng mi. T
trc ti nay ch c thng tin v REER theo nm do vy kh c th s dng vo cc hot ng theo
di, nh gi thng xuyn hn. Cc kt qu c lng v REER tnh theo phng php ca nhm
nghin cu trn c s la chn hp l tn sut (theo qu) v quy m s liu (20 bn hng ln nht ca
Vit Nam) th hin kh tng ng vi nhng din bin v t gi v thng mi ca nc ta trong
thi gian t 2000 n nay. iu ny cho thy cch tnh ny l kh tin cy v nn c a vo p
dng trong thi gian ti, c bit phc v cho cc hot ng gim st, thm nh v nh gi ca
y ban Kinh t v cc chnh sch c lin quan.
Ba l, cc kt qu c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai lch vi t gi cn bng cho thy ng
thi ca t gi cn bng cng tng t nh ng thi ca REER. Theo cch c lng ny th VND
b nh gi trn 20% vo thi im gia nm 2010 v cng tri qua mt thi k bin ng theo hng
mt gi ti 20% trc khi xy ra khng hong kinh t ton cu. C hai c tnh ny: nh gi cao v
45

bin ng ln u c th nh hng tiu cc n nn kinh t. ng tin b nh gi cao s nh hng

xu n nng lc cnh tranh ca Vit Nam trn th trng quc t trong khi dao ng ln trn th
trng ngoi hi s nh hng n nn kinh t ni chung v gim st nim tin ca cng chng vo
ng Vit Nam. Vn chnh sch t ra y l: (i) liu mc sai lch t gi nh trn c phi l kt
qu ca mt ch trng iu hnh t gi c ch ch nhm t mt/nhng mc tiu chnh sch no
khng; ni cch khc (ii) liu cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c thc c mc sai lch v t gi
nh vy khng v c nhng bin php g lm gim nh mc sai lch, bin ng ca t gi hoc
nhng tc ng bt li ca cc sai lch, bin ng ln khng; cui cng l (iii) vic sai lch c
nh hng nh th no n tnh trng kinh t v m ni chung? y l nhng vn chnh sch cn
tip tc c tho lun v nghin cu.Vic c lng v hon thin phng php c lng cng nh
c s thng tin cho vic c lng ny cn tip tc c thc hin v dn dn th ch ha trong cc
hot ng ca cc bn hu quan.
Cui cng, l kt qu nghin cu theo phng php v s liu mi trn din rng cho thy t gi
c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm
xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh
kh nng s dng cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu. Nhiu mt hng Vit Nam c li
th xut khu nh dt may, giy da, g, thit b in t c phn ng tch cc i vi vic gim gi
ng Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c t gi trong bi cnh hin nay,
hay khng cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Nhng lo ngi v tc
ng bt li ca gim gi ng Vit Nam n lm pht, kh nng tr n, tnh hnh ti chnh ca cc
doanh nghip lin quan n n nc ngoi l nhng lo ngi chnh ng, cn c xem xt. Vn ny
cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc.

46

PH LC
Bng A. 1. C ch t gi ca Vit Nam theo thi gian, 1989-2011
Mc thi gian

C ch p dng

c im ch t gi thc t (de facto)

Trc 1989

C ch nhiu t gi

- Ba t gi chnh thc.
- T gi th trng t do tn ti song song vi cc t gi ca nh nc (cho
ti thi im bo co).

1989-1990

Neo t gi vi bin
c iu chnh
(crawling bands)

- T gi chnh thc c thng nht (OER).

- OER c NHNN iu chnh da trn cc tn hiu lm pht, li sut, cn
cn thanh ton, v t gi th trng t do.
- Cc ngn hng thng mi c php thit lp t gi giao dch trong
bin +/-5%.
- Vic s dng ngoi t c kim sot cht ch.

1991-1993

Neo t gi trong bin

- Kim sot vic s dng ngoi t cht ch hn; hn ch mang tin ra khi

(pegged exchange rate

bin gii.

within horizontal bands)

- Thnh lp qu d tr ngoi t chnh thc n nh t gi.

- Thnh lp 2 sn giao dch ngoi t TP. HCM v H ni.
- OER c hnh thnh d a trn cc t gi u thu ti hai sn; NHNN
can thip mnh vo giao dch trn hai sn.
- T gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi dao ng thp hn 0,5% OER cng
b.

1994-1996

C ch t gi neo c

- Th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng c hnh thnh thay th cho 2 sn

nh (conventional fixed

giao dch t gi; NHNN tip tc can thip mnh vo giao dch trn th

peg arrangement)

trng ny.
- OER c hnh thnh v cng b da trn t gi lin ngn hng.
- T gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi dao ng trong bin +/-0,5%
OER cng b. n cui 1996, bin c ni rng t thp hn +/-0,5%
ln +/-1% (11/1996).
- OER c gi n nh mc 11.100VND/USD.

1997-1998

Neo t gi vi bin

- Bin t gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi so vi OER c ni rng

c iu chnh

t +/-1% ln +/-5% (02/97)v t +/-5% ln +/-10% (13/10/97) v sau

47

(crawling bands)

c iu chnh xung khng qu 7% (7/8/98).

- OER c iu chnh ln 11.800VND/USD (16/02/98) v 12.998
VND/USD (07/08/98).

1999-2000

C ch t gi neo c

- OER cng b l t gi lin ngn hng trung bnh ngy lm vic hm

nh (conventional fixed

trc (28/2/99)

peg arrangement)

- Bin t gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi gim xung khng qu

0,1%.
- OER c gi nnh mc 14.000VND/USD.

2001-2007

C ch neo t gi c

- OER c iu chnh dn t mc 14.000VND/USD nm 2001ln 16.100

iu chnh (crawling

VND/USD nm 2007.

peg)

- Bin t gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi c iu chnh ln mc +/0,25% (t 1/7/02 n 31/12/06) v +/-0,5% nm 2007.

2008-2011

Neo t gi vi bin

- OER c iu chnh dn t mc khong 16.100VND/USD vo u

c iu chnh

nm 2008 ln 16.500 VND/USD (06/08 n 12/08), ln 17.000 VND/USD

(crawling bands)

(01/09 n 11/09), ln 17.940 VND/USD (12/09 n 01/10), ln 18.544

VND/USD (t 02/10 n 08/2010), ln 18.932 VND/USD (t 08/10 n
02/11), v sau ln 20,693 (t 02/2011).
- Bin t gi ti cc ngn hng thng mi c iu chnh nhiu ln
ln mc +/-0,75% (t 23/12/07 n 09/03/08), +/-1% (10/03/08 n
25/06/08), +/-2% (26/05/08 n 05/11/08), +/-3% (06/11/08 n
23/03/09), +/-5% (24/03/09 n 25/11/09), v +/-3% (26/11/09 n
11/02/2011), v sau c thu hp xung +/-1% (t 11/02/2011).
Ngun:Tc gi cp nht t Nguyn Th Thu Hng et al. (2010)

48

Bng A. 2. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang cc th trng chnh, 2005-2010

2010
Nc

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

(*)

tng

trng

United States

6,631.2

8,566.7

10,632.8

12,901.1

12,287.8

7,972.6

58,992.1

20.9

20.9

Japan

4,538.6

5,289.9

6,133.6

9,110.4

6,957.5

4,532.9

36,563.0

12.9

33.8

China

2,549.3

2,485.9

3,214.4

4,337.0

4,741.1

3,634.1

20,961.8

7.4

41.2

Australia

2,574.0

3,738.1

3,832.9

4,457.9

2,460.0

1,680.1

18,743.0

6.6

47.8

Singapore

1,813.8

1,650.2

2,141.1

2,382.6

2,269.2

1,000.9

11,257.9

4.0

51.8

Germany

1,719.1

2,173.9

2,946.9

3,523.9

3,187.3

2,166.0

15,717.0

5.6

57.4

United Kingdom

1,348.7

1,497.1

1,688.7

1,846.1

1,589.4

970.4

8,940.4

3.2

60.5

France

1,188.9

1,467.6

1,719.2

1,828.0

1,679.6

1,033.2

8,916.5

3.2

63.7

Malaysia

1,020.9

1,415.9

1,839.5

2,333.2

2,060.6

1,261.0

9,931.0

3.5

67.2

South Korea

694.0

924.9

1,391.6

2,037.1

2,370.0

1,619.6

9,037.1

3.2

70.4

Thailand

890.5

904.4

1,205.5

1,458.9

1,397.4

778.1

6,634.8

2.3

72.8

Netherlands

665.1

836.5

1,050.1

1,231.3

1,173.1

787.6

5,743.7

2.0

74.8

Belgium

746.0

906.5

1,079.8

1,334.7

879.4

492.0

5,438.4

1.9

76.7

Philippines

777.9

672.8

842.7

1,653.4

1,277.3

1,260.9

6,485.1

2.3

79.0

Taiwan

689.6

843.4

1,027.3

1,191.0

906.5

629.9

5,287.7

1.9

80.9

Spain

678.1

863.5

1,141.5

1,584.3

1,275.8

757.4

6,300.5

2.2

83.1

Italy

585.3

764.0

950.1

1,177.9

970.6

633.3

5,081.2

1.8

84.9

Hong Kong

399.1

516.9

651.7

888.4

1,176.3

922.0

4,554.5

1.6

86.5

Indonesia

439.0

846.8

994.2

717.7

653.7

496.1

4,147.6

1.5

88.0

Canada

462.6

576.5

710.3

893.2

930.2

590.7

4,163.5

1.5

89.5

Switzerland

156.6

179.2

215.7

322.6

1,869.7

1,514.4

4,258.2

1.5

91.0

Russia

171.1

348.2

518.7

849.1

660.6

465.7

3,013.4

1.1

92.0

Mexico

274.4

376.9

473.3

614.5

613.5

440.0

2,792.6

1.0

93.0

Turkey

110.0

189.4

313.3

443.7

456.9

405.1

1,918.4

0.7

93.7

49

Austria(Customs)

185.7

237.4

302.5

384.7

290.9

186.3

1,587.4

0.6

94.3

Sweden

157.1

211.0

257.3

281.0

252.8

152.1

1,311.3

0.5

94.7

India

120.3

159.2

159.4

388.1

427.0

296.8

1,550.7

0.5

95.3

91.9

174.8

241.1

279.1

184.9

111.2

1,082.9

0.4

95.6

Denmark

124.2

139.8

169.4

207.6

207.0

116.5

964.4

0.3

96.0

Norway

103.7

116.3

141.7

180.5

164.4

108.2

814.7

0.3

96.3

South Africa

75.0

92.7

135.0

169.9

222.0

221.6

916.2

0.3

96.6

Brazil

47.8

75.6

106.8

200.1

219.6

245.5

895.3

0.3

96.9

Czech Republic

37.4

73.5

97.3

108.2

102.6

73.1

492.1

0.2

97.1

Greece

71.3

81.5

107.4

119.1

99.1

53.0

531.5

0.2

97.3

New Zealand

64.7

85.1

91.6

109.6

92.8

59.9

503.7

0.2

97.5

Ukraine

41.3

54.3

82.8

171.3

116.3

59.1

525.1

0.2

97.6

Ireland

73.5

96.4

133.4

132.2

102.1

55.1

592.7

0.2

97.9

Slovakia

11.5

15.5

89.0

136.7

145.7

77.9

476.3

0.2

98.0

Finland

42.2

53.3

68.3

87.7

71.0

49.3

371.9

0.1

98.2

Hungary

23.9

30.1

59.9

59.7

80.8

71.5

325.8

0.1

98.3

Chile

38.8

53.6

55.1

80.6

126.2

51.2

405.4

0.1

98.4

Algeria

28.2

45.1

55.1

99.3

94.2

73.1

395.0

0.1

98.6

Romania

28.3

44.9

38.2

66.4

86.5

62.5

326.8

0.1

98.7

Argentina

16.0

44.7

51.7

96.5

76.1

55.3

340.3

0.1

98.8

Cote d Ivoire

91.4

65.0

36.6

73.1

79.4

31.3

376.9

0.1

98.9

Portugal

20.8

26.3

44.1

68.3

68.5

41.1

269.2

0.1

99.0

Bulgaria

17.4

23.7

47.7

83.9

49.7

29.8

252.2

0.1

99.1

Serbia

17.4

28.2

50.5

75.4

68.8

27.6

267.8

0.1

99.2

Croatia

20.9

31.1

47.0

62.7

52.5

27.2

241.3

0.1

99.3

Colombia

12.1

25.6

41.7

65.0

60.8

41.4

246.7

0.1

99.4

Senegal

37.2

37.3

26.0

39.8

70.0

24.7

234.9

0.1

99.5

Poland

50

Morocco

16.0

19.7

39.5

47.1

46.8

25.2

194.2

0.1

99.5

Peru

15.8

19.7

26.6

44.1

42.7

24.3

173.3

0.1

99.6

Venezuela

13.0

21.7

25.9

43.3

52.8

21.3

178.1

0.1

99.7

Sri Lanka

10.6

15.5

20.9

28.1

22.3

21.3

118.7

0.0

99.7

Slovenia

8.9

10.8

12.6

18.8

13.1

11.0

75.2

0.0

99.7

Lithuania

4.9

8.0

13.3

25.4

27.2

8.2

87.1

0.0

99.7

Jordan

4.4

6.4

17.5

28.1

26.0

15.6

98.1

0.0

99.8

Kazakhstan

4.3

5.1

12.0

23.2

22.0

15.1

81.7

0.0

99.8

Cyprus

4.6

7.0

8.8

12.0

11.3

7.0

50.6

0.0

99.8

18.1

7.7

14.7

16.5

7.0

64.0

0.0

99.9

Kenya
Ecuador

6.7

6.0

4.3

8.9

18.2

7.6

51.7

0.0

99.9

Estonia

1.9

4.3

4.9

7.1

5.4

3.3

27.0

0.0

99.9

Costa Rica

1.2

3.3

8.0

14.4

14.0

5.3

46.2

0.0

99.9

Mauritius

3.0

3.4

5.5

9.5

21.3

4.2

46.8

0.0

99.9

Iceland

4.6

5.2

7.1

7.7

4.7

4.0

33.3

0.0

99.9

Latvia

3.4

3.9

5.3

8.4

7.5

4.2

32.6

0.0

99.9

Guatemala

0.7

3.1

2.6

4.9

13.7

5.0

30.0

0.0

99.9

Uruguay

1.2

2.3

4.1

6.2

9.0

7.2

30.1

0.0

100.0

Paraguay

1.1

2.7

2.6

6.5

4.7

3.0

20.7

0.0

100.0

Malta

1.2

7.2

1.4

2.3

2.2

1.2

15.6

0.0

100.0

Nicaragua

2.0

3.3

3.3

2.3

3.7

3.5

18.1

0.0

100.0

El Salvador

1.5

1.9

1.7

3.3

5.8

1.0

15.2

0.0

100.0

Luxembourg

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.4

2.0

3.1

5.9

0.0

100.0

Bolivia

0.9

1.5

2.5

3.5

3.0

1.6

12.9

0.0

100.0

Panama

0.5

0.7

1.2

1.8

2.8

3.3

10.2

0.0

100.0

Azerbaijan

1.0

0.1

0.3

3.3

5.1

0.5

10.4

0.0

100.0

Honduras

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.8

2.2

2.4

6.1

0.0

100.0

51

(*) S liu 7 thng u nm

Ngun: GTIS, 2011

Bng A.3. Danh mc cc nc s dng trong vic tnh NEER and REER
Argentina

France

Kuwait

Singapore

Australia

Germany

Laos

South Africa

Austria

Greece

Belgium

Holland

Malaysia

Sweden

Brazil

Hong Kong Chinese

New Zealand

Switzerland

Cambodia

Hungary

Norway

Thailand

Canada

India

Philippines

The Philippines

Czech

Indonesia

Poland

The U.K

China

Iraq

Portugal

The U.S

Chinese Taipei

Ireland

Republic of Korea

Turkey

Denmark

Italy

Russia

Ukraine

Finland

Japan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Spain

52

Bng A. 4.Cc h s ng tch hp trong m hnh vi th trng M v danh mc hong ha SITC

(US market and SITC commodities)
Lnh vc

M t lnh vc

1
12

Live animals other than animals of division 03

Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible
offal, fresh, chilled or frozen (
Meat and edible meat offal, prepared or preserved
n.e.s.
Milk and cream and milk products other than
butter or cheese
Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or frozen
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r
ntcookd before or durng the s
Crustaceans molluscs,aqutcinvrtbrtsfrsh
(lve/dead) chsltd etc.; crustaceans i

17
22
34
35
36

nhy
xut
khu/t gi
1.081
13.337

nhy
gi/t
gi
-2.306
-2.925

T-ration
ca
nhy xk
0.460
6.835

T-ration
ca
nhy gi
-3.383
-8.572

86.102

5.470

1.922

1.267

29.832

-6.368

2.886

-22.040

-4.067
-1.598

-2.796
-1.861

-9.263
-0.238

-5.745
-2.324

0.980

-2.882

0.475

-5.126

37

Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic

invertebrates, prepared or preserv

-0.425

-1.842

-0.441

-2.592

42
44
45

Rice
Maize (not including sweet corn) unmilled
Cereals, unmilled (other than wheat, rice, barley
and maize)
Meal and flour of wheat and flour of meslin
Cereal meals and flours, n.e.s.
Cereal preparations and preparations of flour or
starch of fruits or vegetables

-19.679
-8.176
-2.132

-2.963
-1.969
-5.685

-4.747
-9.869
-0.178

-8.037
-4.281
-4.241

-13.443
6.810
-7.423

-6.569
-0.446
-2.572

-2.095
0.398
-4.200

-7.109
-0.288
-3.456

Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply

preserved; roots, tubers and other
Vegetables, roots and tubers, prepared or
preserved, n.e.s.
Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), fresh or
dried
Fruit preserved, and fruit preparations (excluding
fruit juices)
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable
juices, unfermented and not contai
Sugars, molasses, and honey
Sugar confectionery
Coffee and coffee substitutes
Chocolate and other food preparations containing
cocoa, n.e.s.
Tea and mate
Spices
Feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled

-1.796

-3.009

-0.996

-7.043

0.723

-1.207

0.138

-1.504

-5.803

-2.800

-5.088

-7.105

-0.491

-2.030

-0.092

-3.933

-5.104

-1.410

-1.763

-1.636

2.651
-8.642
-0.442
-27.599

-2.295
-2.726
-1.094
-2.069

1.214
-6.034
-0.106
-3.409

-4.163
-6.118
-1.083
-3.065

-5.927
-8.406
-10.004

-2.271
-3.394
-4.930

-7.947
-5.773
-23.934

-3.271
-6.830
-39.217

46
47
48
54
56
57
58
59
61
62
71
73
74
75
81

53

98

cereals)
Edible products and preparations, n.e.s.

-11.548

-3.351

-9.176

-10.966

111
112

Nonalcoholic beverages, n.e.s.

Alcoholic beverages

2.098
-1.211

-2.966
-3.098

1.292
-0.900

-3.494
-4.563

122

Tobacco, manufactured (whether or not

containing tobacco substitutes)

134.821

-8.225

2.844

-11.449

223

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken,

of a kind used for extracting
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule,
chicle and similar natural gums,
Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste,
pairings and scrap of unhardened rubb
Wood in the rough or roughly squared
Wood, simply worked and railway sleepers of
wood
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and
jute), raw or processed but not
Synthetic fibers suitable for spinning
Worn clothing and other worn textile articles;
rags
Stone, sand and gravel
Sulfur and unroasted iron pyrites
Crude minerals, n.e.s.
Ores and concentrates of base metals, n.e.s.
Crude animal materials, n.e.s.
Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s.
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous
minerals, crude
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals
(other than crude), and product
Residual petroleum products, n.e.s. and related
materials
Liquefied propane and butane
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons,
n.e.s.
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed;
waxes and inedible mixtures or prep
Hydrocarbons, n.e.s. and their halogenated,
sulfonated, nitrated or nitrosated d
Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides,
peroxides and peroxyacids; their halog
Nitrogen-function compounds
Organo-inorganic compounds, heterocyclic
compounds, nucleic acids and their salt
Inorganic chemical elements, oxides and halogen
salts
Metallic salts and peroxysalts of inorganic acids
Inorganic chemicals, n.e.s.; organic and inorganic

-3.359

-2.837

-1.670

-5.400

1.353

-1.441

0.347

-1.976

-478.580

-38.014

-3.478

-3.853

10.545
25.723

-3.491
0.231

0.720
2.591

-14.067
0.311

-58.871

-4.911

-4.858

-7.753

-66.964
3.934

-15.010
-3.084

-4.050
0.314

-7.599
-3.346

-19.637
27.801
5.550
21.175
-3.350
-10.104
-20.029

-8.273
-2.851
-1.350
-7.363
-2.948
-3.194
-3.407

-1.712
2.664
0.668
0.997
-1.941
-6.362
-1.876

-11.591
-8.410
-1.948
-3.093
-6.122
-10.058
-4.061

-3.104

-1.989

-2.254

-3.734

8.627

-2.603

1.644

-4.405

0.092
3.241

-2.839
-2.822

0.035
0.747

-7.268
-5.292

-145.494

41.434

-4.894

4.153

-76.139

-6.513

-9.722

-21.193

51.805

-15.452

1.818

-2.223

29.341
-9.639

-1.575
-1.214

4.198
-0.644

-1.375
-2.766

45.030

5.419

0.575

0.803

-195.247
27.901

-15.527
0.147

-5.727
2.298

-10.163
0.125

231
232
247
248
265
266
269
273
274
278
287
291
292
333
334
335
342
344
431
511
513
514
515
522
523
524

54

533

compounds of precious metals

Pigments, paints, varnishes and related materials

-8.742

-1.030

-1.465

-2.402

541

Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other

than medicaments (of group 542)

-8.805

-2.242

-2.662

-6.697

542
551
553

Medicaments (including veterinary medicaments)

Essential oils, perfume and flavor materials
Perfumery, cosmetics, or toilet preparations,
excluding soaps
Soap, cleansing and polishing preparations
Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms
Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated
olefins, in primary forms
Plastics, n.e.s., in primary forms
Waste, parings and scrap, of plastics
Tubes, pipes and hoses of plastics
Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of plastics
Monofilament with a cross-sectional dimension
exceeding 1 mm, rods, sticks and p
Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth
regulators, etc., disinfectan

2.094
68.315
-5.666

-3.090
6.627
-3.514

0.224
4.153
-1.236

-3.246
2.902
-6.099

10.893
-38.513
-6.275

3.587
-0.981
-1.402

1.524
-5.641
-3.431

1.467
-3.584
-6.057

116.598
-7.819
657.790
-68.896
21.685

3.939
-1.867
106.260
-5.649
-3.666

2.346
-0.425
2.692
-5.862
0.722

1.518
-1.146
2.712
-7.056
-6.013

-19.107

-3.492

-1.040

-3.467

-2.363

-1.121

-0.118

-0.660

-39.017
-99.558

4.208
-8.716

-2.468
-2.632

2.517
-17.779

133.224
-10.480
-1.397

5.335
-2.458
-3.003

1.012
-2.425
-1.223

0.791
-4.604
-3.941

554
571
573
575
579
581
582
583
591
592
593
597
598
611
612

Starches, inulin and wheat gluten; albuminoidal

substances; glues
Explosives and pyrotechnic products
Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids
for hydraulic transmissions; a
Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s.
Leather
Manufactures of leather or composition leather,
n.e.s.; saddlery and harness

613

Furskins, tanned or dressed (including pieces or

cuttings), assembled or unassem

-31.127

-2.745

-10.129

-7.704

621

Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates,

sheets, rods, thread, tubes, etc.
Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps
and inner tubes for wheels
Articles of rubber, n.e.s.
Cork manufactures
Veneers, plywood, particle board, and other
wood, worked, n.e.s.
Wood manufactures, n.e.s.
Paper and paperboard
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and
articles of paper or paperboard
Textile yarn
Cotton fabrics, woven (not including narrow or
special fabrics)
Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not
including narrow or special fabr

-48.629

-5.567

-4.057

-4.751

-24.405

-2.319

-13.626

-3.520

-7.290
0.557
1.526

1.117
-1.632
-1.038

-4.112
0.269
0.024

0.908
-2.626
-0.325

-3.842
-38.346
-11.115

-1.356
-3.635
-2.388

-1.969
-4.447
-1.109

-2.310
-9.056
-4.275

-33.522
-41.191

-7.090
-0.413

-5.023
-4.248

-6.078
-0.350

-138.767

17.957

-3.040

3.040

625
629
633
634
635
641
642
651
652
653

55

654
655
656
657
658
659
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
674
676
678
679

Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than

cotton or manmade fibers and narr
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular
knit fabrics, n.e.s., pile fabri
Tulles, lace, embroidery, ribbons, trimmings and
other small wares
Special yarns, special textile fabrics and related
products
Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of textile
materials, n.e.s.
Floor coverings, etc.
Lime, cement, and fabricated construction
materials, except glass and clay mater
Clay construction materials and refractory
construction materials
Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.
Glass
Glassware
Pottery
Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones,
unworked or worked
Iron and nonalloy steel flat-rolled products, clad,
plated or coated
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and
sections, including sheet piling
Iron and steel wire
Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles,
fittings for tubes and pipes

64.859

18.689

4.051

3.669

-0.027

-1.185

-0.005

-1.277

76.969

4.566

1.833

1.248

5.985

1.552

0.504

0.830

-8.840

-1.325

-3.667

-2.142

-8.358
-10.997

-5.057
-1.986

-1.738
-7.316

-5.573
-2.764

-45.700

-8.176

-2.969

-3.907

-8.799
-14.019
9.345
-2.700
56.714

-3.183
-1.359
-2.776
-2.005
3.036

-16.580
-3.862
2.647
-2.188
1.019

-7.728
-1.058
-4.357
-5.276
1.000

-13.927

-2.456

-6.009

-8.653

-73.471

2.054

-3.385

2.499

38.186
-16.083

5.444
-3.119

0.830
-5.147

0.847
-11.023

681
682

Silver, platinum and other platinum group metals

Copper

1.239
-2.813

-6.339
-2.942

0.195
-0.961

-3.725
-2.654

684
689

Aluminum
Miscellaneous nonferrous base metals employed
in metallurgy and cermets
Metal structures and parts, n.e.s., of iron, steel or
aluminum

-29.338
326.361

0.017
81.506

-3.269
2.314

0.013
2.293

-33.684

-2.947

-2.495

-5.057

Metal containers for storage or transport

Wire products (excluding insulated electrical
wiring) and fencing grills
Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar
articles, of iron, steel, copper
Tools for use in the hand or in machines
Cutlery
Household equipment of base metal, n.e.s.
Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s.
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, superheated water boilers and auxiliar
Internal combustion piston engines and parts
thereof, n.e.s.

-14.462
-867.852

-2.495
-20.417

-3.529
-1.430

-2.104
-1.592

-24.191

-4.295

-9.787

-13.100

-6.608
-16.280
-10.038
-416.348
3364.437

-2.898
0.420
-2.577
-55.522
-8.865

-2.312
-2.230
-6.792
-3.400
2.748

-4.068
0.355
-12.384
-3.406
-5.133

-18.411

-0.133

-4.236

-0.379

691
692
693
694
695
696
697
699
711
713

56

714
716
721
722
723
724
726
727
728
731

Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than

steam turbines, internal combustion
Rotating electric plant and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Agricultural machinery (excluding tractors) and
parts thereof
Tractors (other than mechanical handling
equipment)
Civil engineering and contractors' plant and
equipment
Textile and leather machinery, and parts thereof,
n.e.s.
Printing and bookbinding machinery, and parts
thereof
Food-processing machines (excluding domestic)
Machinery and equipment specialized for
particular industries, and parts thhereo
Machine tools working by removing metal or
other material

2.792

-3.120

0.412

-15.202

-8.521
2.413

-1.272
-2.880

-3.145
1.375

-1.324
-6.163

54.234

-10.744

4.483

-5.584

-1.995

-1.900

-0.100

-2.372

-29.384

-1.654

-6.378

-2.978

1.983

-1.806

0.274

-1.906

-21.609

-2.434

-9.767

-3.148

72.421

2.890

2.410

1.768

-53.273

-9.360

-0.749

-10.736

733

Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal

carbides or cermets, without rem

1.678

-2.348

1.037

-7.783

735

Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or

principally with metal working
Metalworking machinery (other than machine
tools) and parts thereof, n.e.s.

-5.335

-2.014

-0.522

-4.187

84.286

2.735

3.456

1.404

-6.367

-1.555

-0.263

-1.092

-78.545

-7.563

-6.583

-8.847

-11.263

-2.468

-3.894

-4.510

-25.380

-2.204

-3.114

-2.048

16.017

2.857

0.942

1.079

-1.568
-12.971

-2.602
-2.723

-0.341
-2.979

-5.041
-6.290

64.682

0.483

2.960

0.483

-3.491

-1.644

-0.390

-1.040

-15.018
-7.413

-1.192
-1.055

-0.971
-0.881

-2.564
-0.793

-13.973

-1.868

-3.000

-3.205

-1959.602

450.669
-2.710

-7.774

-7.855

-1.219

-4.549

737
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
751
752
759
761
763

Heating and cooling equipment and parts thereof,

n.e.s.
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a
measuring device; liquid elevato
Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors
and fans; ventilating hoods inco
Mechanical handling equipment, and parts
thereof, n.e.s.
Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical
apparatus, and parts thereof, n.e.
Ball or roller bearings
Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for
pipes, boiler shells, tanks, etc.
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings
and plain shaft bearings; gears
Nonelectric parts and accessories of machinery,
n.e.s.
Office machines
Automatic data processing machines and units
thereof; magnetic or optical reader
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or
principally with office machine
Tv receivers (including video monitors &
projectors) wheth r ntincorpradiobroa
Sound recorders or reproducers; television image

-40.797

57

764
771
772
773
774
775
776
778
781
784

and sound recorders or reproduc

Telecommunications equipment, n.e.s.; and parts,
n.e.s., and accessories of appa
Electric power machinery (other than rotating
electric plant of power generating
Electrical apparatus for switching or protecting
electrical circuits or for maki
Equipment for distributing electricity, n.e.s.
Electro-diagnostic apparatus for medical,
surgical, dental or veterinary science
Household type electrical and nonelectrical
equipment, n.e.s.
Thermionic, cold cathode or photocathode valves
and tubes; diodes, transistors a
Electrical machinery and apparatus, n.e.s.
Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally
designed for the transport of pe
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and
other motor vehicles, trucks,

0.103

0.106

0.008

0.082

-9.268

-2.400

-2.498

-3.483

-35.893

-3.621

-2.832

-6.486

237.766
21.816

12.596
-7.563

2.503
0.709

2.401
-2.865

326.717

16.210

1.843

1.719

-1.016

-1.463

-0.726

-1.792

62.343

9.175

3.614

2.940

-2072.504

-3.270

-3.293

19.947

337.900
3.555

2.075

1.974

785

Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles,

motorized and not motorized; invalid

-6.839

-0.865

-0.510

-0.512

786

Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicles, not

mechanically propelled; speciall
Railway vehicles (including hovertrains) and
associated equipment

-0.549

-1.319

-0.039

-1.305

-17.313

-3.767

-3.015

-9.819

11.890

-1.019

0.652

-0.749

-23.590

-1.841

-3.547

-3.413

34.451
28.356

2.600
-0.338

2.191
2.709

1.386
-0.639

-6.553
-1.162

-2.642
-0.810

-1.922
-0.326

-3.681
-1.500

-12.645

-1.292

-6.105

-2.171

-6.645

-0.271

-3.574

-0.386

12.558

-0.258

1.424

-0.240

-4.949

-1.248

-1.549

-1.680

-5.993

-1.355

-1.585

-1.697

-8.330

-1.517

-2.525

-1.848

-10.279

-3.093

-3.789

-7.481

791
792
793
811
812
813
821
831
841
842
843
844
845
846

Aircraft and associated equipment; spacecraft

(including satellites) and spacecr
Ships, boats (including hovercraft) and floating
structures
Prefabricated buildings
Sanitary, plumbing and heating fixtures and
fittings, n.e.s.
Lighting fixtures and fittings, n.e.s.
Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, mattresses,
mattress supports, cushions an
Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and
camera cases, handbags, wallets,
Men's or boys' coats, jackets, suits, trousers,
shirts, underwear etc. Of woven
Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits,
trousers, dresses, skirts, under
Men's or boys' coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers,
trousers, shirts, etc. (ex
Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits,
trousers, dresses, underwear, et
Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, whether or
not knitted or crocheted, n.
Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics, whether
or not knitted or crocheted (o

58

848
851
871
872
874
881
882
884
885
891
892
893
894
895
896
897
898
899
931
950
971
984

Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of

other than textile fabrics; head
Footwear
Optical instruments and apparatus, n.e.s.
Instruments and appliances, n.e.s., for medical,
surgical, dental or veterinary
Measuring, checking, analysing and controlling
instruments and apparatus, n.e.s.
Photographic apparatus and equipment, n.e.s.
Photographic and cinematographic supplies
Optical goods, n.e.s.
Watches and clocks
Arms and ammunition
Printed matter
Articles, n.e.s. of plastics
Baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods
Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s.
Works of art, collectors' pieces and antiques
Jewelry, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares, and
other articles of precious or
Musical instruments, parts and accessories
thereof; records, tapes and other sou
Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s.
Special transactions and commodities not
classified according to kind
Coin, including gold coin; proof and presentation
sets and current coin
Gold, nonmonetary (excluding gold ores and
concentrates)
Estimate of import items valued under $251 and
of other low valued items nonexem

-12.658

-0.844

-4.239

-1.181

1.918
529.430
13.791

-0.869
35.179
0.513

0.511
2.378
1.079

-1.297
2.283
0.360

9.571

-0.445

1.126

-0.308

8.090
71.718
20.400
-6.316
-1.422
-5.176
76.275
-4.364
17.594
-10.797
-11.565

-1.252
-13.222
-0.051
-3.046
-3.815
-2.880
6.859
-0.171
0.679
-3.136
-1.119

0.658
2.451
2.439
-1.212
-0.417
-1.452
3.103
-0.792
1.489
-2.480
-2.553

-1.266
-5.378
-0.061
-7.641
-5.369
-6.189
2.647
-0.180
0.495
-7.189
-2.467

1.985

-1.072

0.328

-0.988

-8.402

-1.875

-1.170

-3.117

-8.787

-3.180

-3.859

-9.350

7.810

-1.370

9.818

-4.439

39.308

-13.527

6.787

-9.946

40.000

8.027

4.273

3.639

59

Bng A. 5. Phn ng ngn hn ca xut khu i vi t gi: hm phn hi xung

lnh vc
1

m t
Live animals other than animals of division 03

thi k_1
-0.031

thi k_2
-0.235

thi k_3
-0.518

thi k_4
-0.751

12

Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible offal,

fresh, chilled or frozen (

-0.006

-0.026

0.017

0.170

17

Meat and edible meat offal, prepared or preserved

n.e.s.
Milk and cream and milk products other than butter or
cheese
Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or frozen
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r ntcookd
before or durng the s
Crustaceans molluscs,aqutcinvrtbrtsfrsh (lve/dead)
chsltd etc.; crustaceans i
Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic
invertebrates, prepared or preserv
Rice
Maize (not including sweet corn) unmilled
Cereals, unmilled (other than wheat, rice, barley and
maize)
Meal and flour of wheat and flour of meslin
Cereal meals and flours, n.e.s.
Cereal preparations and preparations of flour or starch
of fruits or vegetables

-0.344

-0.035

0.652

1.117

0.043

0.253

0.480

0.713

0.010
-0.101

0.141
-0.308

0.127
-0.622

0.000
-1.088

0.030

0.225

0.411

0.650

0.029

0.256

0.496

0.827

-0.133
-0.300
0.045

-0.435
-0.822
-0.323

-0.977
-1.577
-0.584

-1.601
-2.360
-0.581

-0.064
0.012
0.047

-0.135
-0.078
0.181

-0.142
-0.377
0.183

-0.286
-0.793
0.048

54

Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply preserved;

roots, tubers and other

-0.034

-0.061

-0.044

-0.027

56

Vegetables, roots and tubers, prepared or preserved,

n.e.s.
Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), fresh or dried
Fruit preserved, and fruit preparations (excluding fruit
juices)
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable juices,
unfermented and not contai
Sugars, molasses, and honey
Sugar confectionery
Coffee and coffee substitutes
Chocolate and other food preparations containing
cocoa, n.e.s.
Tea and mate
Spices
Feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled
cereals)
Edible products and preparations, n.e.s.
Nonalcoholic beverages, n.e.s.
Alcoholic beverages
Tobacco, manufactured (whether or not containing

0.152

0.359

0.433

0.482

0.061
-0.036

0.363
-0.071

0.751
0.075

1.256
0.305

0.090

0.361

0.735

1.217

0.054
0.095
0.149
-0.140

0.254
0.262
0.549
-0.159

0.430
0.631
0.909
-0.160

0.666
0.988
1.223
-0.187

-0.085
-0.187
-0.082

-0.139
-0.571
-0.758

-0.144
-0.941
-1.653

-0.081
-1.298
-2.676

-0.031
-0.050
0.039
0.064

0.055
-0.101
0.136
-0.190

0.096
-0.036
0.319
-0.495

0.073
0.023
0.586
-0.442

22
34
35
36
37
42
44
45
46
47
48

57
58
59
61
62
71
73
74
75
81
98
111
112
122

60

223
231
232
247
248
265
266
269
273
274
278
287
291
292
333
334
335
342
344
431

tobacco substitutes)
Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken, of a
kind used for extracting
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle
and similar natural gums,
Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste, pairings and
scrap of unhardened rubber
Wood in the rough or roughly squared
Wood, simply worked and railway sleepers of wood
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and jute),
raw or processed but not
Synthetic fibers suitable for spinning
Worn clothing and other worn textile articles; rags
Stone, sand and gravel
Sulfur and unroasted iron pyrites
Crude minerals, n.e.s.
Ores and concentrates of base metals, n.e.s.
Crude animal materials, n.e.s.
Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s.
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals,
crude
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals
(other than crude), and product
Residual petroleum products, n.e.s. and related
materials
Liquefied propane and butane
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons, n.e.s.
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed; waxes and
inedible mixtures or prep

-0.042

0.019

0.158

0.314

0.021

0.187

0.284

0.435

-0.214

-0.499

-0.848

-1.211

-0.247
0.046
0.191

-0.587
0.228
0.339

-1.161
0.602
0.307

-2.078
1.034
0.104

-0.196
-0.002
-0.002
0.317
0.389
-0.428
-0.045
-0.007
0.077

-0.401
0.002
0.134
-0.171
0.682
-0.715
-0.007
-0.140
0.130

-0.731
-0.117
0.243
-0.239
0.941
-0.954
0.121
-0.146
0.217

-0.946
-0.290
0.250
-1.678
1.503
-1.134
0.173
-0.180
0.304

-0.082

-0.191

-0.378

-0.573

-0.089

-0.186

-0.328

-0.604

-0.011
-0.084
-0.327

-0.023
-0.118
-0.945

-0.106
-0.220
-1.911

-0.276
-0.376
-2.827

511

Hydrocarbons, n.e.s. and their halogenated, sulfonated,

nitrated or nitrosated d

0.241

0.631

0.825

1.183

513

Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides, peroxides

and peroxyacids; their halog
Nitrogen-function compounds
Organo-inorganic compounds, heterocyclic
compounds, nucleic acids and their salt
Inorganic chemical elements, oxides and halogen salts
Metallic salts and peroxysalts of inorganic acids
Inorganic chemicals, n.e.s.; organic and inorganic
compounds of precious metals
Pigments, paints, varnishes and related materials
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other than
medicaments (of group 542)
Medicaments (including veterinary medicaments)
Essential oils, perfume and flavor materials
Perfumery, cosmetics, or toilet preparations, excluding
soaps
Soap, cleansing and polishing preparations

0.213

0.525

1.005

1.661

0.021
-0.174

0.129
-0.355

0.376
-0.533

0.704
-0.871

-0.044
-0.379
0.330

-0.217
-0.882
0.743

-0.690
-1.150
1.313

-1.334
-1.244
2.057

-0.179
-0.115

-0.271
-0.096

-0.424
0.046

-0.799
0.346

-0.034
-0.034
0.046

0.084
-0.188
0.163

0.370
-0.353
0.186

1.018
-0.533
0.209

-0.047

0.044

0.205

0.597

514
515
522
523
524
533
541
542
551
553
554

61

571

Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms

0.210

0.608

1.160

1.827

573

Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated

olefins, in primary forms

0.001

-0.024

-0.053

-0.089

575
579
581
582
583

Plastics, n.e.s., in primary forms

Waste, parings and scrap, of plastics
Tubes, pipes and hoses of plastics
Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of plastics
Monofilament with a cross-sectional dimension
exceeding 1 mm, rods, sticks and p
Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth
regulators, etc., disinfectan
Starches, inulin and wheat gluten; albuminoidal
substances; glues
Explosives and pyrotechnic products
Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids for
hydraulic transmissions; a
Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s.

0.085
-0.114
0.015
0.001
0.276

0.373
-0.402
-0.023
0.069
-0.006

0.407
-1.028
0.015
0.090
-0.532

0.610
-1.846
0.138
0.209
-1.635

0.056

0.304

0.389

0.370

-0.316

-0.769

-1.362

-2.094

-0.193
-0.482

-0.307
-0.754

-0.057
-0.883

0.644
-0.954

0.211

0.543

0.917

1.445

Leather
Manufactures of leather or composition leather, n.e.s.;
saddlery and harness
Furskins, tanned or dressed (including pieces or
cuttings), assembled or unassem
Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates, sheets,
rods, thread, tubes, etc.

0.031
0.099

0.071
0.280

0.124
0.467

0.094
0.721

0.319

1.186

3.001

5.497

0.252

0.734

1.385

2.192

625

Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps and

inner tubes for wheels

-0.094

-0.161

-0.361

-0.649

629
633

Articles of rubber, n.e.s.

Cork manufactures

0.046
0.109

0.207
0.663

0.230
1.201

0.246
1.869

634

Veneers, plywood, particle board, and other wood,

worked, n.e.s.
Wood manufactures, n.e.s.
Paper and paperboard
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and articles
of paper or paperboard
Textile yarn
Cotton fabrics, woven (not including narrow or special
fabrics)
Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not
including narrow or special fabr

-0.291

-0.647

-1.061

-1.568

0.175
0.008
-0.152

0.370
-0.096
-0.434

0.608
-0.404
-0.651

0.976
-0.808
-0.814

0.043
-0.104

0.053
0.005

-0.045
0.028

-0.116
0.002

-0.081

-0.150

-0.152

-0.167

Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than cotton or

manmade fibers and narr
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular knit
fabrics, n.e.s., pile fabri
Tulles, lace, embroidery, ribbons, trimmings and other
small wares
Special yarns, special textile fabrics and related
products
Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of textile materials,

-0.090

-0.177

-0.227

-0.224

-0.048

-0.072

-0.178

-0.228

-0.113

-0.150

-0.067

0.106

0.107

0.331

0.622

1.014

0.011

-0.050

-0.038

0.116

591
592
593
597
598
611
612
613
621

635
641
642
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658

62

659

n.e.s.
Floor coverings, etc.

0.197

0.497

0.693

0.758

661

Lime, cement, and fabricated construction materials,

except glass and clay mater

0.003

-0.011

-0.067

-0.155

662

Clay construction materials and refractory construction

materials
Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.
Glass
Glassware
Pottery
Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, unworked or
worked
Iron and nonalloy steel flat-rolled products, clad, plated
or coated
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and sections,
including sheet piling

0.104

0.271

0.435

0.800

-0.127
0.071
0.046
0.155
-0.052

-0.233
0.152
0.019
0.506
-0.217

-0.458
0.165
-0.108
0.751
-0.570

-0.845
0.204
-0.338
0.911
-0.968

-0.126

-0.130

0.030

0.294

0.251

0.595

1.026

1.222

Iron and steel wire

Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, fittings
for tubes and pipes
Silver, platinum and other platinum group metals
Copper
Aluminum
Miscellaneous nonferrous base metals employed in
metallurgy and cermets
Metal structures and parts, n.e.s., of iron, steel or
aluminum
Metal containers for storage or transport

-0.064
0.105

-0.209
0.306

-0.426
0.438

-0.664
0.506

0.353
0.417
0.016
0.178

1.225
0.977
-0.015
0.225

2.489
1.327
-0.283
0.254

4.421
1.576
-0.700
0.227

0.083

0.291

0.522

0.801

-0.088

-0.240

-0.410

-0.562

693

Wire products (excluding insulated electrical wiring)

and fencing grills

-0.231

-0.618

-1.315

-2.237

694

Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles, of

iron, steel, copper
Tools for use in the hand or in machines
Cutlery
Household equipment of base metal, n.e.s.
Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s.
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, super-heated
water boilers and auxiliar
Internal combustion piston engines and parts thereof,
n.e.s.
Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than steam
turbines, internal combustion
Rotating electric plant and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Agricultural machinery (excluding tractors) and parts
thereof
Tractors (other than mechanical handling equipment)
Civil engineering and contractors' plant and equipment
Textile and leather machinery, and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Printing and bookbinding machinery, and parts thereof

-0.015

-0.083

-0.044

0.097

0.067
0.099
0.151
-0.026
-0.154

0.305
0.292
0.514
0.023
-0.403

0.530
0.458
0.835
0.034
-0.904

0.870
0.489
1.103
-0.077
-1.466

0.071

-0.085

-0.393

-1.201

-0.027

0.169

0.135

-0.052

0.018
0.132

0.045
0.401

0.031
0.800

-0.025
1.078

-0.031
-0.014
-0.067
-0.066

-0.044
-0.151
0.239
-0.175

0.007
-0.311
0.710
-0.230

0.228
-0.369
1.584
-0.246

663
664
665
666
667
674
676
678
679
681
682
684
689
691
692

695
696
697
699
711
713
714
716
721
722
723
724
726

63

727

Food-processing machines (excluding domestic)

0.059

0.251

0.498

0.777

728

Machinery and equipment specialized for particular

industries, and parts thhereo

-0.058

-0.297

-0.685

-1.280

731

Machine tools working by removing metal or other

material
Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal
carbides or cermets, without rem
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or
principally with metal working
Metalworking machinery (other than machine tools)
and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Heating and cooling equipment and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a
measuring device; liquid elevato

-0.040

-0.174

-0.449

-0.806

0.036

0.198

0.418

0.788

0.019

0.027

0.088

0.178

-0.087

-0.316

-0.618

-0.991

-0.109
0.113

-0.135
0.438

-0.167
0.953

-0.128
1.472

Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors and

fans; ventilating hoods inco
Mechanical handling equipment, and parts thereof,
n.e.s.

0.022

-0.029

-0.018

0.145

0.154

0.405

0.599

1.051

745

Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical

apparatus, and parts thereof, n.e.

0.070

0.108

0.233

0.390

746
747

Ball or roller bearings

Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes,
boiler shells, tanks, etc.
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings and
plain shaft bearings; gears
Nonelectric parts and accessories of machinery, n.e.s.

-0.251
0.012

-0.646
0.013

-1.196
0.069

-1.613
0.211

0.005

0.140

0.384

0.699

-0.007

0.182

0.465

0.665

Office machines
Automatic data processing machines and units thereof;
magnetic or optical reader
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or
principally with office machine
Tv receivers (including video monitors & projectors)
wheth r ntincorpradiobroa

0.184
0.038

0.482
0.071

0.654
0.155

0.845
0.203

-0.028

0.049

0.179

0.298

0.392

1.088

2.704

3.746

Sound recorders or reproducers; television image and

sound recorders or reproduc
Telecommunications equipment, n.e.s.; and parts,
n.e.s., and accessories of appa
Electric power machinery (other than rotating electric
plant of power generating
Electrical apparatus for switching or protecting
electrical circuits or for maki
Equipment for distributing electricity, n.e.s.
Electro-diagnostic apparatus for medical, surgical,
dental or veterinary science

0.085

0.106

0.182

0.247

0.040

0.273

0.484

0.673

-0.034

-0.050

0.002

0.070

0.010

0.001

-0.172

-0.297

-0.180
0.299

-0.391
0.387

-0.696
0.341

-1.094
0.086

Household type electrical and nonelectrical equipment,

n.e.s.
Thermionic, cold cathode or photocathode valves and
tubes; diodes, transistors a
Electrical machinery and apparatus, n.e.s.

-0.154

-0.366

-0.764

-1.362

-0.016

-0.216

-0.537

-0.954

0.024

0.280

0.504

0.774

733
735
737
741
742
743
744

748
749
751
752
759
761
763
764
771
772
773
774
775
776
778

64

781

Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally

designed for the transport of pe
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and other
motor vehicles, trucks,
Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles, motorized
and not motorized; invalid
Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicles, not
mechanically propelled; speciall
Railway vehicles (including hovertrains) and
associated equipment
Aircraft and associated equipment; spacecraft
(including satellites) and spacecr

0.187

0.466

0.857

1.279

0.010

0.054

0.075

0.157

-0.177

-0.384

-0.567

-0.733

-0.126

-0.241

-0.490

-0.919

0.576

1.355

2.349

3.830

-0.216

-0.486

-0.770

-1.134

793

Ships, boats (including hovercraft) and floating

structures

-0.282

-0.605

-0.723

-1.013

811
812

Prefabricated buildings
Sanitary, plumbing and heating fixtures and fittings,
n.e.s.
Lighting fixtures and fittings, n.e.s.

-0.023
0.029

-0.042
0.091

-0.248
0.170

-0.317
0.231

0.034

0.238

0.553

0.920

821

Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, mattresses,

mattress supports, cushions an

0.152

0.514

0.797

1.124

831

Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and camera

cases, handbags, wallets,
Men's or boys' coats, jackets, suits, trousers, shirts,
underwear etc. Of woven

-0.109

-0.125

-0.203

-0.300

0.165

0.353

0.567

0.879

Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers,

dresses, skirts, under
Men's or boys' coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers,
trousers, shirts, etc. (ex
Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers,
dresses, underwear, et
Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, whether or not
knitted or crocheted, n.
Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics, whether or not
knitted or crocheted (o
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of other
than textile fabrics; head
Footwear
Optical instruments and apparatus, n.e.s.
Instruments and appliances, n.e.s., for medical,
surgical, dental or veterinary
Measuring, checking, analysing and controlling
instruments and apparatus, n.e.s.

0.178

0.447

0.637

0.764

0.093

0.246

0.263

0.229

0.040

0.218

0.372

0.549

0.022

0.206

0.375

0.552

-0.261

-0.627

-0.971

-1.293

0.067

0.268

0.435

0.611

0.021
-0.365
0.069

0.082
-1.178
0.047

-0.053
-2.231
-0.031

-0.225
-3.274
-0.116

-0.126

-0.232

-0.265

-0.081

Photographic apparatus and equipment, n.e.s.

Photographic and cinematographic supplies
Optical goods, n.e.s.
Watches and clocks
Arms and ammunition
Printed matter

0.115
0.183
-0.245
-0.037
-0.032
0.001

0.216
0.293
-0.514
-0.094
-0.104
-0.097

0.691
0.181
-0.708
-0.117
-0.238
-0.042

1.103
0.102
-0.837
-0.047
-0.457
0.189

784
785
786
791
792

813

841
842
843
844
845
846
848
851
871
872
874
881
882
884
885
891
892

65

893

Articles, n.e.s. of plastics

0.107

0.359

0.525

0.661

894
895

Baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods

Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s.

-0.084
-0.103

-0.095
-0.111

0.009
0.003

0.171
0.074

896
897

Works of art, collectors' pieces and antiques

Jewelry, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares, and other
articles of precious or
Musical instruments, parts and accessories thereof;
records, tapes and other sou
Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s.
Special transactions and commodities not classified
according to kind
Coin, including gold coin; proof and presentation sets
and current coin
Gold, nonmonetary (excluding gold ores and
concentrates)

-0.039
0.033

-0.164
0.135

-0.208
0.286

-0.288
0.529

0.090

0.289

0.568

0.908

0.081
-0.204

0.259
-0.493

0.543
-0.843

0.875
-1.166

-0.108

-0.104

-0.294

-0.432

0.175

0.716

1.238

1.836

984

Estimate of import items valued under $251 and of

other low valued items nonexem

-0.006

0.096

0.201

0.353

sector
1

descript
Live animals other than animals of division 03

12

17
22

898
899
931
950
971

34
35
36
37
42
44
45
46
47
48
54
56
57
58

ftest_yx
2.062

Prob_YX
0.089

ftest_xy
0.365

Prob_XY
0.549

Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible offal, fresh,

chilled or frozen

3.098

0.021

2.316

0.071

Meat and edible meat offal, prepared or preserved n.e.s.

Milk and cream and milk products other than butter or
cheese
Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or frozen
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r nt cookd
before or durng the s
Crustaceans molluscs,aqutc invrtbrts frsh (lve/dead) ch sltd
etc.; crustaceans i
Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates,
prepared or preserved
Rice
Maize (not including sweet corn) unmilled
Cereals, unmilled (other than wheat, rice, barley and maize)
Meal and flour of wheat and flour of meslin
Cereal meals and flours, n.e.s.
Cereal preparations and preparations of flour or starch of
fruits or vegetables

0.806
2.472

0.573
0.049

1.520
0.418

0.225
0.741

1.564
6.504

0.193
0.000

2.363
5.486

0.132
0.001

1.301

0.289

2.043

0.144

1.131

0.370

0.590

0.560

1.771
1.374
2.423
2.551
11.204
1.169

0.142
0.258
0.054
0.042
0.000
0.350

0.432
4.257
0.861
1.019
4.388
0.280

0.652
0.046
0.499
0.319
0.005
0.600

3.160

0.016

0.825

0.369

3.435
2.099
2.109

0.012
0.085
0.088

4.394
0.152
1.463

0.006
0.859
0.234

Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply preserved;

roots, tubers and other
Vegetables, roots and tubers, prepared or preserved, n.e.s.
Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), fresh or dried
Fruit preserved, and fruit preparations (excluding fruit

66

59
61
62
71
73
74
75
81
98
111
112
122
223
231
232
247
248
265
266
269
273
274
278
287
291
292
333
334
335
342
344
431
511
513
514

juices)
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable juices,
unfermented and not contai
Sugars, molasses, and honey
Sugar confectionery
Coffee and coffee substitutes
Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa,
n.e.s.
Tea and mate
Spices
Feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals)
Edible products and preparations, n.e.s.
Nonalcoholic beverages, n.e.s.
Alcoholic beverages
Tobacco, manufactured (whether or not containing tobacco
substitutes)

2.483

0.052

2.030

0.101

6.767
4.398
2.370
3.415

0.000
0.004
0.056
0.013

4.236
1.570
1.528
1.131

0.005
0.199
0.231
0.368

1.842
2.731
1.823
1.782
1.289
2.332
4.375

0.126
0.034
0.129
0.141
0.293
0.058
0.004

0.375
1.086
1.336
2.961
4.006
2.935
3.313

0.544
0.381
0.255
0.046
0.052
0.095
0.018

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken, of a kind

used for extracting
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and
similar natural gums,

3.436

0.014

5.447

0.001

2.077

0.090

1.149

0.344

Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste, pairings and

scrap of unhardened rubb
Wood in the rough or roughly squared
Wood, simply worked and railway sleepers of wood
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and jute), raw or
processed but not
Synthetic fibers suitable for spinning
Worn clothing and other worn textile articles; rags
Stone, sand and gravel
Sulfur and unroasted iron pyrites
Crude minerals, n.e.s.
Ores and concentrates of base metals, n.e.s.
Crude animal materials, n.e.s.
Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s.
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, crude
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (other
than crude), and product
Residual petroleum products, n.e.s. and related materials
Liquefied propane and butane
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons, n.e.s.
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed; waxes and
inedible mixtures or prep
Hydrocarbons, n.e.s. and their halogenated, sulfonated,
nitrated or nitrosated d
Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides, peroxides and
peroxyacids; their halog
Nitrogen-function compounds

3.042

0.020

0.143

0.868

1.306
2.748
2.679

0.288
0.032
0.037

0.214
0.701
2.876

0.886
0.558
0.040

6.602
3.377
2.798
1.281
3.061
4.802
2.742
2.456
1.246
5.742

0.000
0.013
0.028
0.300
0.020
0.002
0.035
0.051
0.313
0.001

9.272
0.748
1.827
2.479
0.503
1.435
1.903
1.568
0.148
1.924

0.000
0.531
0.184
0.065
0.683
0.244
0.127
0.208
0.703
0.118

1.987
1.058
3.256
2.322

0.103
0.410
0.015
0.059

1.249
0.079
0.234
1.779

0.308
0.925
0.872
0.190

1.714

0.154

0.716

0.495

2.087

0.091

0.952

0.464

2.966

0.026

1.579

0.196

67

515

Organo-inorganic compounds, heterocyclic compounds,

nucleic acids and their salt
Inorganic chemical elements, oxides and halogen salts
Metallic salts and peroxysalts of inorganic acids
Inorganic chemicals, n.e.s.; organic and inorganic
compounds of precious metals
Pigments, paints, varnishes and related materials
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other than
medicaments (of group 542)
Medicaments (including veterinary medicaments)
Essential oils, perfume and flavor materials
Perfumery, cosmetics, or toilet preparations, excluding
soaps
Soap, cleansing and polishing preparations
Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms
Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated olefins, in
primary forms

4.892

0.002

2.866

0.040

4.016
1.820
1.034

0.005
0.134
0.424

0.127
2.267
0.182

0.724
0.085
0.672

2.536
2.261

0.046
0.069

3.272
3.196

0.024
0.027

2.571
1.729
2.495

0.044
0.150
0.048

9.359
5.408
2.990

0.000
0.025
0.034

2.024
3.967
2.390

0.098
0.007
0.058

5.088
2.348
3.176

0.003
0.063
0.022

575
579

Plastics, n.e.s., in primary forms

Waste, parings and scrap, of plastics

1.725
1.617

0.151
0.180

0.000
0.967

0.985
0.390

581
582

Tubes, pipes and hoses of plastics

Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of plastics

2.611
2.047

0.043
0.098

2.828
3.026

0.032
0.024

583

Monofilament with a cross-sectional dimension exceeding

1 mm, rods, sticks and p
Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth
regulators, etc., disinfectan
Starches, inulin and wheat gluten; albuminoidal substances;
glues
Explosives and pyrotechnic products

2.125

0.081

0.935

0.340

2.424

0.052

0.050

0.951

2.326

0.061

0.382

0.767

3.206

0.017

1.321

0.285

597

Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids for

hydraulic transmissions; a

5.822

0.001

1.222

0.329

598
611

Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s.

Leather

2.605
3.455

0.038
0.013

2.237
0.437

0.143
0.819

612

Manufactures of leather or composition leather, n.e.s.;

saddlery and harness
Furskins, tanned or dressed (including pieces or cuttings),
assembled or unassem
Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates, sheets, rods,
thread, tubes, etc.
Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps and inner
tubes for wheels
Articles of rubber, n.e.s.
Cork manufactures
Veneers, plywood, particle board, and other wood, worked,
n.e.s.
Wood manufactures, n.e.s.
Paper and paperboard
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and articles of
paper or paperboard

1.506

0.211

7.957

0.007

2.800

0.032

0.928

0.479

1.238

0.316

6.269

0.017

2.296

0.065

5.815

0.001

3.677
2.921
0.883

0.009
0.025
0.519

1.771
1.405
0.083

0.153
0.259
0.775

2.110
1.433
1.803

0.083
0.236
0.138

0.057
0.034
7.991

0.813
0.855
0.000

522
523
524
533
541
542
551
553
554
571
573

591
592
593

613
621
625
629
633
634
635
641
642

68

651

Textile yarn

2.582

0.041

5.722

0.007

652

Cotton fabrics, woven (not including narrow or special

fabrics)

2.865

0.028

1.470

0.236

653

Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not including

narrow or special fabr
Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than cotton or
manmade fibers and narr
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular knit fabrics,
n.e.s., pile fabri
Tulles, lace, embroidery, ribbons, trimmings and other
small wares
Special yarns, special textile fabrics and related products
Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of textile materials,
n.e.s.

3.982

0.007

1.517

0.215

2.636

0.037

2.009

0.149

1.610

0.180

0.270

0.606

6.455

0.000

1.437

0.242

3.105
4.312

0.020
0.004

1.022
3.858

0.412
0.012

3.896
2.465

0.007
0.051

2.741
1.449

0.040
0.242

5.724

0.001

1.101

0.391

663

Floor coverings, etc.

Lime, cement, and fabricated construction materials, except
glass and clay mater
Clay construction materials and refractory construction
materials
Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.

3.926

0.007

1.806

0.145

664
665

Glass
Glassware

3.285
2.426

0.014
0.050

0.418
1.669

0.661
0.204

666
667

Pottery
Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, unworked or
worked
Iron and nonalloy steel flat-rolled products, clad, plated or
coated
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and sections,
including sheet piling
Iron and steel wire

4.727
1.838

0.002
0.129

3.645
0.832

0.016
0.486

1.829

0.128

1.284

0.264

0.790

0.585

0.070

0.793

3.319

0.013

0.232

0.633

679

Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, fittings for
tubes and pipes

1.705

0.160

2.836

0.042

681
682
684
689

Silver, platinum and other platinum group metals

Copper
Aluminum
Miscellaneous nonferrous base metals employed in
metallurgy and cermets

3.031
1.354
1.651
1.550

0.022
0.266
0.169
0.200

1.870
6.724
0.063
6.352

0.142
0.013
0.803
0.002

691
692
693

Metal structures and parts, n.e.s., of iron, steel or aluminum

Metal containers for storage or transport
Wire products (excluding insulated electrical wiring) and
fencing grills
Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles, of iron,
steel, copper
Tools for use in the hand or in machines
Cutlery
Household equipment of base metal, n.e.s.
Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s.
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, super-heated water

10.998
3.663
2.638

0.000
0.010
0.039

1.722
3.388
1.969

0.164
0.017
0.125

2.332

0.062

2.721

0.048

4.225
2.843
1.056
1.536
2.216

0.005
0.028
0.411
0.202
0.075

1.770
1.030
4.817
0.181
2.366

0.148
0.392
0.034
0.673
0.066

654
655
656
657
658
659
661
662

674
676
678

694
695
696
697
699
711

69

713

boilers and auxiliar

Internal combustion piston engines and parts thereof, n.e.s.

6.307

0.000

4.081

0.006

714

Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than steam turbines,

internal combustion

2.378

0.060

5.899

0.001

716
721

Rotating electric plant and parts thereof, n.e.s.

Agricultural machinery (excluding tractors) and parts
thereof
Tractors (other than mechanical handling equipment)
Civil engineering and contractors' plant and equipment
Textile and leather machinery, and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Printing and bookbinding machinery, and parts thereof
Food-processing machines (excluding domestic)
Machinery and equipment specialized for particular
industries, and parts thhereo
Machine tools working by removing metal or other material
Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal carbides or
cermets, without rem
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally
with metal working
Metalworking machinery (other than machine tools) and
parts thereof, n.e.s.
Heating and cooling equipment and parts thereof, n.e.s.
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a measuring
device; liquid elevato
Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors and fans;
ventilating hoods inco
Mechanical handling equipment, and parts thereof, n.e.s.

2.333
1.879

0.058
0.118

0.467
0.276

0.499
0.602

7.830
1.487
1.533
2.471
2.240
1.755

0.000
0.222
0.203
0.047
0.067
0.144

3.130
1.362
1.232
0.051
4.947
1.937

0.023
0.271
0.274
0.822
0.032
0.172

3.155
1.991

0.018
0.100

1.623
0.044

0.194
0.834

3.127

0.020

2.580

0.049

4.842

0.002

0.942

0.470

3.706
2.561

0.007
0.041

8.651
0.292

0.005
0.592

2.022

0.095

0.895

0.350

4.973

0.002

2.079

0.108

745

Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical apparatus,

and parts thereof, n.e.

3.802

0.007

2.995

0.045

746
747

Ball or roller bearings

Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes, boiler
shells, tanks, etc.
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings and plain
shaft bearings; gears
Nonelectric parts and accessories of machinery, n.e.s.
Office machines
Automatic data processing machines and units thereof;
magnetic or optical reader
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally
with office machine

2.590
6.493

0.039
0.000

0.017
1.742

0.896
0.154

4.921

0.002

0.299

0.876

3.878
3.499
0.699

0.007
0.012
0.653

0.897
2.217
5.503

0.497
0.082
0.008

1.889

0.121

2.389

0.073

Tv receivers (including video monitors & projectors) wheth

r nt incorp radiobroa
Sound recorders or reproducers; television image and sound
recorders or reproduc
Telecommunications equipment, n.e.s.; and parts, n.e.s.,
and accessories of appa
Electric power machinery (other than rotating electric plant
of power generating

2.669

0.038

4.652

0.003

6.001

0.001

9.072

0.000

1.789

0.138

2.193

0.126

2.169

0.077

0.551

0.581

722
723
724
726
727
728
731
733
735
737
741
742
743
744

748
749
751
752
759
761
763
764
771

70

772

Electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical

circuits or for maki
Equipment for distributing electricity, n.e.s.
Electro-diagnostic apparatus for medical, surgical, dental or
veterinary science
Household type electrical and nonelectrical equipment,
n.e.s.
Thermionic, cold cathode or photocathode valves and
tubes; diodes, transistors a
Electrical machinery and apparatus, n.e.s.
Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed
for the transport of pe
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and other
motor vehicles, trucks,

2.744

0.033

2.031

0.129

1.105
1.813

0.387
0.139

2.335
10.222

0.069
0.000

1.037

0.422

0.118

0.889

2.513

0.047

1.228

0.320

0.934
6.224

0.486
0.000

0.503
3.133

0.482
0.029

2.640

0.038

0.538

0.659

Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles, motorized and

not motorized; invalid
Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicles, not mechanically
propelled; speciall

4.431

0.004

0.772

0.600

1.870

0.124

2.260

0.086

791

Railway vehicles (including hovertrains) and associated

equipment

2.035

0.093

0.657

0.423

792

Aircraft and associated equipment; spacecraft (including

satellites) and spacecr
Ships, boats (including hovercraft) and floating structures
Prefabricated buildings
Sanitary, plumbing and heating fixtures and fittings, n.e.s.
Lighting fixtures and fittings, n.e.s.
Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, mattresses, mattress
supports, cushions an

2.578

0.043

2.593

0.056

4.825
1.756
4.217
1.109
5.385

0.002
0.148
0.005
0.381
0.001

3.006
4.152
2.009
0.171
2.470

0.025
0.009
0.104
0.681
0.066

Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and camera cases,

handbags, wallets,
Men's or boys' coats, jackets, suits, trousers, shirts,
underwear etc. Of woven
Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers,
dresses, skirts, under

1.542

0.203

1.168

0.337

5.166

0.002

4.823

0.002

2.036

0.093

3.037

0.089

Men's or boys' coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers, trousers,

shirts, etc. (ex
Women's or girls' coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers,
dresses, underwear, et
Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, whether or not knitted
or crocheted, n.
Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics, whether or not
knitted or crocheted (o
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of other than
textile fabrics; head

2.022

0.095

0.294

0.591

2.464

0.053

6.819

0.000

2.887

0.028

8.828

0.000

2.521

0.044

0.029

0.867

3.674

0.009

2.280

0.084

773
774
775
776
778
781
784
785
786

793
811
812
813
821
831
841
842
843
844
845
846
848

71

T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
CC NHN T QUYT NH, MC SAI LCH
V TC NG I VI XUT KHU

Chu trch nhim xut bn

Bin tp v sa bn in

Trnh by ba
Nguyn Thi Dng

In cun kh 16 x 24 ti cng ty

72