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Asian Population Studies

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DEMOGRAPHER'S VOCATION

Adrian C. Hayes Available online: 15 Oct 2010

To cite this article: Adrian C. Hayes (2010): CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DEMOGRAPHER'S VOCATION, Asian Population Studies, 6:3, 261-262 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2010.512758

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COMMENTARY

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DEMOGRAPHERS VOCATION

Adrian C. Hayes

The role of population in the causes and consequences of climate change needs to be better understood; reaching equitable agreements on how to respond*locally, nationally and internationally*could depend on it. So far only a relatively small number of demographers have taken this responsibility seriously. Human populations are complex entities and much of that complexity is implicated in the way populations are coupled with ecosystems. When we examine the role of population change in rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions we find that population growth is significant, but in the present global context of rapidly rising consumption per capita it is usually not the most important factor. The worlds population will probably peak this century and most of the additional three billion people we expect by 2050 will be the result of population momentum, not high fertility. Reducing population growth can help reduce emissions, but not nearly enough to solve the problem. Meanwhile there are many challenging research questions to explore regarding the changing composition of populations associated with rising consumption. Urbanisation has an effect on emissions and so do population ageing and household structure. Studying the causal chains in detail can suggest realistic and cost-effective ways emissions can be reduced. The research is challenging because many of the underlying processes are interdependent; rapid urbanisation in developing countries, for example, is often associated with rapid ageing of the rural population. Many of these processes are running at unprecedented rates in Asia. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 4th Assessment Report in 2007, global emissions were already edging higher than even their highest scenario, mainly because of the exceptionally high rates of economic growth achieved during the current decade by large developing countries like China, India and Indonesia. We are living in what Ross Garnaut has called the Platinum Age of Development. We know that longterm mitigation requires breaking the nexus between economic growth and rising emissions and some Asian countries (Japan, Singapore) are in the vanguard of attempts to accomplish this. China overtook the United States (US) in GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2007, and just two years later it overtook the US in investment in renewable energy. When the IPCC did their initial work during the early 1990s they focused mainly on anthropogenic effects and their mitigation. This was considered top priority and stakeholders worried that too much attention on adaptation might cause policy-makers to believe a massive reduction in emissions was not important after all if we could adapt to climate change anyway. Unfortunately, the Kyoto Protocol was not implemented on schedule and we are now faced with the urgent necessity of adapting to climate change. Asian Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, November 2010
ISSN 1744-1730 print/1744-1749 online/10/030261-02 2010 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2010.512758

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ADRIAN C. HAYES

Even if emissions miraculously stabilised at current levels today, global surface temperatures would continue to rise for decades because there is a substantial time-lag between an increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations and the resulting temperature rise due to radiative forcing. The physical impacts of climate change will not be distributed evenly across the globe and within geographical areas, some population groups will be better resourced to adapt to climate change than others. In broad terms we expect the rich to adapt better than the poor, working-age adults better than elderly dependents, and the educated better than those with little education. Farmers will be affected in different ways than fishermen, urban populations will be affected differently than those living in rural areas. However, national adaptation strategies need far more discriminating detail to be effective. Demographers need to help identify the dimensions of population composition most relevant to vulnerability and resilience. Demographic research can also contribute to resolving issues of climate justice. It is the rich industrial countries located in middle latitudes which are historically responsible for most of the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere today, but it is the poorer developing countries located closer to the equator which will experience most of the adverse impacts. Mitigation is the classic prisoners dilemma. Every country stands to gain by allowing other nations to contribute the most to mitigation while doing as little as possible themselves. In sharing the cost, equity requires that we must find a fair balance between rich and poor countries, between those that might be affected the most and those least affected, and between citizens living today and those of future generations. There are similar issues to negotiate within countries. Nations and vested interest groups will clamour for special treatment and exceptions. Establishing equitable solutions is an immense task of almost unimaginable complexity but it is worth noting that many of the factors which need to be balanced, like costs and benefits to the current generation on the one hand and to future generations on the other hand, are firmly rooted in population dynamics. Once again demographic skills and insights can make a major contribution. Many policy-makers, and others who influence public opinion, have a very simple concept of population as being just a matter of population size and growth. They tend, as a result, either to exaggerate the importance of population for addressing climate change or dismiss it as irrelevant. Only the demographers more powerful concept of population as a complex entity can clarify adequately the role of population in adaptation, mitigation and climate justice. The last century has been called the Demographic Century, and the present may be tagged the Century of Climate Change. Regardless, as demographers we still live in interesting times.

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Adrian C. Hayes (author to whom correspondence should be addressed), Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Coombs Building, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 020, Australia. Tel: 61 2 6125 9287; Email: adrian.hayes@anu.edu.au