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Lecture 5:
Climate change threats,
(Part I: Changes in the climate of the tropic)
The general circulation pattern is more complicated over the Pacific where
a convection cell exists also along the equator between a low in the West
(close to South-East Asia) and a high in the East (close to South America).
Two phases of Walker circulation:
„El Niño-Southern Oscillation” (ENSO)
The traditional view of ENSO:
after a period of “normal”
Walker circulation, a warm
anomaly appears in the East
Pacific . Because the date it
was ofter detected off-Peru
shores was close to Christmas,
it was named “The [boy] baby”
(El Niño).
La Niña
El Niño
ENSO-3 Index
The array of instruments monitor oceanic conditions: blue lines are the
tracks of commercial ships of opportunity, arrows show drifting buoys, yellow
dots represent tide gauges measuring sea level, red diamonds and squares
are buoys moored to the ocean floor.
Fedorov & Philander 2000 (Science)
Beginning of El Niño: October 1997
Time evolution of wind anomaly (red means more Western), SST and
20° C isotherm depth (reds mean deeper).
Time trajectory of potential energy caused by thermocline tilt (E) and power
transferred by wind to ocean (W) shows the periodicity od ENSO
(counterclockwise). The „grayed out” fragments are periods of westerly winds.
The upper part of each graph is La Niña while the lower is El Niño.
Philander & Fedorov 2003 (Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.)
World wide El Niño effects (old & simple view)
The influence of the cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO on the
climate in winter DJF (upper) and summer JJA (lower).
Wpp
During last 100+ years the pressure gradients which power the Walker
circulation decreased by 2.5 – 3 % (a). This change can be modeled (b). It
is important that natural forcing cannot explain the change (c) but
anthropogenic change can (d) explain the changes of tropospheric
circulation.
Vecchi et al. 2006 (Nature)
How will ENSO change in the greenhouse world?
SST variability (upper) and ENSO period (lower) does not change in the
world of doubled CO2 concentration: an averaged results of 15 general
circulation models. But how much can we trust them?
Merryfield 2006 (Journal of Climate)
ENSO forecasting: an example
Monsoons work in yearly scale as a breeze in the daily one: they blow winds
towards the hot continent in the summer and from a cold one in the winter.
They are one of the only two climate connections between the hemispheres
(thermohaline circulation being the other one) .
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Oxygen isotopes from Hulu Cave (China) show how over 70 ka the monsoon
strength depended both on THC and North Hemisphere summer insolation.
Wang et al. 2001 (Science)
THC and sun...
Monsoon intensity
depends both on the
summer insolation of the
North Hemisphere and
on the intensity of
thermohaline circulation
(THC).
Intensity of the monsoons and the ENSO cycle have anticorrelated in the
Holocene Lower graphs: reconstructed SST and salinity 6000 years ago
(compared to the present average values). Abram et al. 2007 (Nature)
Climate „teleconnections”
Correlation between India monsoon intensity and Nino-3 index (thin line
and the lower dotted one – when two atypical years 1983 and 1997 are
omitted), winter temperature of Western Europe air (thick solid) and
Central Europe (dotted line). One can see the strong ENSO – monsoon
anticorrelation. Winter temperature of Europe correlates significantly
(horizontal lines) only when NAO index is positive. The positive NAO
means strong westerly circulation making European climate influence the
central Euroasia.
Chang, Harr & Ju 2001 (Journal of Climate)
A reminder: Winter values of NAO since 1950
NAO was consistently low on the 1960s and high in the 1990s.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
Summary 2/3
Wpp
Because hurricanes
start only in waters of
SST > 28 C, does their
number depend on
ocean average
temperature?
Number of Atlantic
hurricanes and
average temperature
of the Northern
Hemisphere.
Goldenberg et al. 2001 (Science)
Hurricanes and SST: direct proof
Analysis of data
from various tropical
ocean areas shows
that the number of
hurricanes in class 4
& 5 correlate only
with SST (A), while
there is no
significant
correlation with air
humidity (B), wind
shear (C) i and
North-South wind
speed gradients (D).
In 2005 Atlantic had a record number (26) of named hurricanes and tropical
storms beating the 1933 by five. The season lasted for a record time period
(until January 6, 2006). A named storm reached Europe for the first time ever.
NOAA
Few Atlantic hurricanes 2006: El Niño or Sahara?
The reason for that is lower SST values of the tropical Atlantic. Possible
reason for that may be El Niño. There is also another possibility: dust storms
from Sahara brought dust to tropical Atlantic in June and July cooling down
the sea beneath. Or maybe both phenomena are linked?
Lau & Kim 2007 (preprint)
Summary 3/3
Hurricanes (cyclones and typhoons) form
exclusively over the ocean of SST of at least
28º C. A large correlation exists between their
total energy over a season and the SST of their
generation area (especially strong for the
Atlantic, the ocean with the longest series of
reliable tropical storm data)
Hurricane power does not correlate with other