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Jacek Piskozub

Institute of Oceanology PAS


Sopot, Poland

Lecture 5:
Climate change threats,
(Part I: Changes in the climate of the tropic)

Ho Chi Minh City, December 2007


Jacek Piskozub “Klimat a ocean: wczoraj, dziś i jutro”,
kurs wykładów dla doktorantów 19.02-14.05.2007

 Maszyna klimatyczna Ziemia (zmienność w skali geologicznej)


 Epoka lodowa w której żyjemy (zmienność w skali astronomicznej)
 Gwałtowne zmiany klimatu (deglacjacja, zmienność “suborbitalna”)
 Holocen: klimat, ocean a cywilizacja, (stała słoneczna i wulkanizm)
 Północny Atlantyk – kuźnia klimatu (cyrkulacja termohalinowa, NAO)
 Tropiki a zmienność klimatu (ENSO, huragany, monsuny)
 Aerozol: wielka niewiadoma klimatyczna
 Gazy o znaczeniu klimatycznym (cykl węgla, CO2, metan, DMS)
 Globalne ocieplenie a ocean (zmienność antropogeniczna)
 Zmiany klimatyczne w rejonach polarnych
A reminder: Earth atmospheric circulation

Climate of the tropics is ruled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)


between two Hadley cells, which you can feel on the surface as the trade winds.
Inny widok tej samej cyrkulacji.
Walker circulation cell over the equatorial Pacific

Sir Gilbert Thomas


Walker (1868 - 1958)‫‏‬

The general circulation pattern is more complicated over the Pacific where
a convection cell exists also along the equator between a low in the West
(close to South-East Asia) and a high in the East (close to South America).
Two phases of Walker circulation:
„El Niño-Southern Oscillation” (ENSO)
The traditional view of ENSO:
after a period of “normal”
Walker circulation, a warm
anomaly appears in the East
Pacific . Because the date it
was ofter detected off-Peru
shores was close to Christmas,
it was named “The [boy] baby”
(El Niño).

At present most researchers


treat ENSO as a cycle of two
metastable phases: : El Niño
and La Niña, of which one is no
more normal than the other.

The ENSO cycle of 3-7 year


period is the largest source of
climate variability in the
multiannual time scale.
Two phases
of ENSO

La Niña

El Niño
ENSO-3 Index

Positive anomalies of equatorial East Pacific from the average


are called El Niño, the negative ones La Niña. Variability with
periods shorter than one year has been filtered out.
McPhaden 1999 (Science)‫‏‬
ENSO index in the 20th century

An alternative way of defining the ENSO phases, comparing the


index to its multiannual “sliding” average of equatorial East
Pacific temperatures. Using this approach both phases (La Niña
oraz El Niño) are equally frequent almost by definition.

Fedorov & Philander 2000 (Science)‫‏‬


How do we know?

The array of instruments monitor oceanic conditions: blue lines are the
tracks of commercial ships of opportunity, arrows show drifting buoys, yellow
dots represent tide gauges measuring sea level, red diamonds and squares
are buoys moored to the ocean floor.
Fedorov & Philander 2000 (Science)‫‏‬
Beginning of El Niño: October 1997

Sea surface temperature (SST) in October 1997 and its anomaly


from a long term average for the month. The characteristic „warm
wedge” close to South America is almost 5 deg warmer than the
average.

Webster & Palmer 1997 (Nature)‫‏‬


Początki El Niño: 11.1996 - 10.1997

Anomaly from multiannual


Pacific SST during the
development of El Niño
1997/1998.

Webster & Palmer 1997 (Nature)‫‏‬


Developing El Niño:another view

Time evolution of wind anomaly (red means more Western), SST and
20° C isotherm depth (reds mean deeper).

McPhaden 1999 (Science)‫‏‬


Proof that ENSO is really cyclical

Time trajectory of potential energy caused by thermocline tilt (E) and power
transferred by wind to ocean (W) shows the periodicity od ENSO
(counterclockwise). The „grayed out” fragments are periods of westerly winds.
The upper part of each graph is La Niña while the lower is El Niño.
Philander & Fedorov 2003 (Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.)‫‏‬
World wide El Niño effects (old & simple view)

The El Niño phase causes measurable changes of precipitation in most


Earth areas: drought in Indonesia, Australia, Middle America (hence less
hurricanes hurricanes in El Niño years), Eastern Africa and India (weak
monsoon), while parts of the United States and Argentina have increased
precipitation.
Rosenzweig 1994 (Nature) after Nicholls 1993
A more modern view of ENSO climate influence

The influence of the cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO on the
climate in winter DJF (upper) and summer JJA (lower).

en.wikipedia.org after NOAA


Mechanism of world wide spreading of ENSO climate
effects: atmospheric circulation

Changes of atmospheric circulations as a function of lime and latitude. The


momentum transfer by changing westerly winds towards the poles after each
El Niño is clearly visible.
Dickey, Marcus & Hide 1992 (Nature)‫‏‬
Wppp

Wpp

Forchhammer et al. 1998 (Nature)‫‏‬


Influence of El Niño on maize crop in Zimbabwe

ENSO-3 index (dashed lines) is highly correlated with precipitation and


maize crop in Zimbabwe. It is noteworthy ENSO correlates better with
maize crop than with precipitation (which may mean that ENSO influences
also Zimbabwe temperature and/or other factors).

Cane, Eshel & Buckland 1994 (Nature)‫‏‬


ENSO w holocenie

Pozycja ITCZ (na podstawie siły


monsunu), temperatury Zachodniego i
Wschodniego Pacyfiku oraz
częstotliwość zjawisk ENSO w ciągu
ostatnich 14ka.

Widoczne jest minimum aktywności


ENSO w okresie optimum
klimatycznego holocenu.

Uwaga: Niska aktywność w epoce


lodowej nie jest zgodna z
przedstawionymi wynikami Tudhope et
al 2001. Autorzy mimo przedstawienia
jej na rysunku w artykule nie wyciągają
wniosków co do epoki lodowej
Koutavas et al. 2006 (Geology)‫‏‬
ENSO in the past millennium

Seasonal changes of temperature (δ18O) from Palmyra fossil corals show


that ENSO was practically independent from temperature and irradiance
variability in the last millennium.
Cobb et al. 2003 (Nature)‫‏‬
Tropical atmospheric circulation changes

During last 100+ years the pressure gradients which power the Walker
circulation decreased by 2.5 – 3 % (a). This change can be modeled (b). It
is important that natural forcing cannot explain the change (c) but
anthropogenic change can (d) explain the changes of tropospheric
circulation.
Vecchi et al. 2006 (Nature)‫‏‬
How will ENSO change in the greenhouse world?

SST variability (upper) and ENSO period (lower) does not change in the
world of doubled CO2 concentration: an averaged results of 15 general
circulation models. But how much can we trust them?
Merryfield 2006 (Journal of Climate)‫‏‬
ENSO forecasting: an example

ENSO forecasting for 2007 by 20 models I showed to my students in


March. How accurate it was?
McPhaden, Zebiak & Glantz 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
The outcome: not one model predicted the Nino 3.4 value of 0.0
which was recorded in the month I presented this for the first time.
Podsumowanie 1/3
 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is an oscillation of the ocean-
atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific with a period of 2-7 years.
 Its warm phase (El Niño) means decreasing: Walker circulation, trade
winds, cold water upwelling at South American coast, South Asia &
Eastern Africa monsoons, hurricanes in the Atlantic & typhoons in the
Pacific; the cold phase (La Niña) restores a state previously deemed
“normal”.
 ENSO influence reaches most o the planet

ans is the greatest source of climate


interannual variability.
 Although there is evidence ENSO period
lengthened since 1980s, generally in the
last millennium it did not change much.
 Our models show no significant change in

the coming greenhouse world but we


cannot yet be sure we are able to predict
this when our models cannot reliable San Diego River flooding during
model even the present ENSO cycles. the 2005 El Niño
Monsuny: bryza o cyklu rocznym

Monsoons work in yearly scale as a breeze in the daily one: they blow winds
towards the hot continent in the summer and from a cold one in the winter.
They are one of the only two climate connections between the hemispheres
(thermohaline circulation being the other one) .
Intertropical Convergence Zone

During the year ITCZ moves


towards the more sunward
hemisphere
(which is visible in the graph
- though not very well)
Kump et al. 2004
What controls the monsoon strength in the long time?

Oxygen isotopes from Hulu Cave (China) show how over 70 ka the monsoon
strength depended both on THC and North Hemisphere summer insolation.
Wang et al. 2001 (Science)‫‏‬
THC and sun...

A little longer time scale


and the same result:

Monsoon intensity
depends both on the
summer insolation of the
North Hemisphere and
on the intensity of
thermohaline circulation
(THC).

Henderson 2006 (Science)‫‏‬


Monsoon (and ENSO) in the Holocene

Intensity of the monsoons and the ENSO cycle have anticorrelated in the
Holocene Lower graphs: reconstructed SST and salinity 6000 years ago
(compared to the present average values). Abram et al. 2007 (Nature)‫‏‬
Climate „teleconnections”

The influence of THC on the monsoon is


easy to explain (THC influences the
Eurasian temperatures).

Other “teleconnections” (up) are not so


obvious: usually we do not fully
understand what influences what.
Zahn 2003 (Nature); Sirocko et al. 1996 (Nature)‫‏‬
Monsoon and ENSO

Intensity of monsoon rains in India as a function of the ENSO-3 index: a


strong anticorrelation. Large droughts (<-2) happen only during the El
Niño phase.
Kumar et al. 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
ENSO, NAO and the monsoons

Correlation between India monsoon intensity and Nino-3 index (thin line
and the lower dotted one – when two atypical years 1983 and 1997 are
omitted), winter temperature of Western Europe air (thick solid) and
Central Europe (dotted line). One can see the strong ENSO – monsoon
anticorrelation. Winter temperature of Europe correlates significantly
(horizontal lines) only when NAO index is positive. The positive NAO
means strong westerly circulation making European climate influence the
central Euroasia.
Chang, Harr & Ju 2001 (Journal of Climate)‫‏‬
A reminder: Winter values of NAO since 1950

NAO was consistently low on the 1960s and high in the 1990s.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
Summary 2/3

 During the Holocene, monsoon strength anticorrelated


with ENSO variability.
 Asia monsoon intensity depends on the Northern

Hemisphere summer insolation and (with a shorter


timescale) on THC intensity (both correlations are
positive). The probable reason fr both is their influence on
summer temperature of Eurasia.
 In still shorter timescale, monsoon anticorrelates with the

ENSO index (drought during El Niño and strong rains


during La Niña).
 The reason for this (and others) climate „teleconnections”

(remote influences) are not yet fully explained and


understood. Even the strongest correlation does not
explain causality
Stalagmite from Dongge Cave
(Southern China) - a record of
9000 years of monsoon history
Hurricanes / cyclones / typhoons
Saffir-Simpson scale:
 Tropical storm: 17.5 -32 m/s

 Category 1: 33–42 m/s

 Category 2: 43–49 m/s

 Category 3: 50–58 m/s

 Category 4: 59–69 m/s

 Category 5: ≥70 m/s

Hurricanes (cyclones, typhoons) are defined as tropical lows with wind


speed consistently over 33 m/s commence over tropical ocean areas of
SST greater than 28° C. Over land, they quickly lose their power. In
Atlantic the hurricane season is defined as June 1 – November 30.

Huragan Isabel, 2003, International Space Station


A hurricane cross-section

Left cross-section presents horizontal velocities (scaled up to 50


m/s), right panel presents vertical velocities (red means upwards
blue is downwards) Emmanuel 2003 (Ann. Rev. Earth Planet Sci.)‫‏‬
Wppp

Wpp

Forchhammer et al. 1998 (Nature)‫‏‬


Hurricanes
and SST

Because hurricanes
start only in waters of
SST > 28 C, does their
number depend on
ocean average
temperature?

Number of Atlantic
hurricanes and
average temperature
of the Northern
Hemisphere.
Goldenberg et al. 2001 (Science)‫‏‬
Hurricanes and SST: direct proof

Total dissipation energy (“power dissipation index”) of


hurricanes/typhoons over the whole season strongly correlates the
average SST of their generation area for Atlantic (left) and Pacific
(right) (respectively r2=0.65 i r2=0.67).

Emanuel 2005 (Nature)‫‏‬


More and more strong hurricanes

Contrary to what the models show, the maximum wind velocity in a


hurricane does not increase. On the other hand, we have more and more
hurricanes close to the upper limit (categories 4 and 5).
Webster et al. 2005 (Science)‫‏‬
Hurricanes correlate with SST and... nothing else

Analysis of data
from various tropical
ocean areas shows
that the number of
hurricanes in class 4
& 5 correlate only
with SST (A), while
there is no
significant
correlation with air
humidity (B), wind
shear (C) i and
North-South wind
speed gradients (D).

Hoyos et al. 2006 (Science)‫‏‬


Caveat: data series is of uneven quality

Analysis of old satellite photographs of 1968-1989 using modern methods


made it possible to discover hurricanes of categories 4 & 5 that were not
recognized as such when they happened. Above: four examples from
northern Indian Ocean. Landsea et al. 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
Studying hurricane statistics
older than meteorology itself?

Study of oxygen isotope ratios in the


summer-autumn part of yearly tree-
rings in Georgia, USA shows (after
filtering out the interannual
variability) whether a hurricane
passed nearby (index value < -1).

In the period which has good


meteorological data (since 1940),
this method gave only one false
positive event (1943).

Miller et al. 2006 (PNAS)‫‏‬


Three hurricane regimes in
the Atlantic?

However, Atlantic SST and


hurricane numbers have
been comparatively well
known for a long time.

It seems that the last 100


years had three distinct
climate regimes of the
tropical Atlantic with a non-
linear increase of hurricane
number with increasing SST.
Holland 2006 (Komisja Senatu)‫‏‬
2005: a record breaking year in the Atlantic

In 2005 Atlantic had a record number (26) of named hurricanes and tropical
storms beating the 1933 by five. The season lasted for a record time period
(until January 6, 2006). A named storm reached Europe for the first time ever.
NOAA
Few Atlantic hurricanes 2006: El Niño or Sahara?

2005: 12 tropical storms (1 not named) and 15 hurricanes


2006: 4 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes

The reason for that is lower SST values of the tropical Atlantic. Possible
reason for that may be El Niño. There is also another possibility: dust storms
from Sahara brought dust to tropical Atlantic in June and July cooling down
the sea beneath. Or maybe both phenomena are linked?
Lau & Kim 2007 (preprint)‫‏‬
Summary 3/3
 Hurricanes (cyclones and typhoons) form
exclusively over the ocean of SST of at least
28º C. A large correlation exists between their
total energy over a season and the SST of their
generation area (especially strong for the
Atlantic, the ocean with the longest series of
reliable tropical storm data)
 Hurricane power does not correlate with other

meteorological parameters (even where theory


predicts such correlations).
 There is more and more strong hurricanes

instead of the expected increase of hurricane


maximal wind speed.
 After the record 2005 season, there was a Hurricane evacuation route
relatively quiet 2006. The reason for lower (Miami, Florida)‫‏‬
tropical Atlantic SST in 2006 could be El Niño
or Sahara dust storms (or is one dependent on
the other?)

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