Tiu lun: N cng chu u Li m u Nm 2008, nn kinh t th gii tri qua mt nm y nhng kh khn do cuc khng hong ti chnh

h bng pht ti M v lan rng ton cu, ko theo s sp ng lot ca nhiu nh ch ti chnh khng l, th trng chng khon khuynh o. Hu ht cc nc EU cng vi cc nn kinh t ng u nh Nga, Nht, Singapo, Trung Quc phi i mt vi tnh trng suy thoi trm trng. Tnh n cui nm 2009, kinh t th gii c du hiu phc hi. Tuy nhin, cha hon ton bc ra khi khng hong th th gii li i mt vi mt c sc khc, l n cng EU, c nh gi l gy ra hu qu nng n v su sc hn c khng hong ti chnh th gii din ra trc . N cng chnh ph vt qu cao so vi mc an ton nhng nn kinh t pht trin. Tnh trng ny ang lm cho vin cnh nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng suy thoi trm trng mt ln na. y l mt ti nng hin nay, gy ra s ch ht sc i vi cc nn kinh t, chnh ph cc nc, cc nh u t, doanh nghip v cc chuyn gia ti chnh kinh t. V vy, chng em la chn ti: tm hiu tnh hnh kinh t th gii, cng nh vn dng cc kin thc kinh t v m hc vo phn tch v nhn nh thc tin. Trong khun kh bi tiu lun ca mnh, chng em xin trnh by mt cch khi qut nht v cuc khng hong n cng EU, sau s tp trung bi vit vo nhng gii php ang c thc thi v cui cng l cc tng mi cho vic khc phc cuc khng hong n cng ny.

I. Ton cnh cuc khng hong n cng Chu u v tc ng ca n n nn kinh t. 1. Ton cnh cuc khng hong n cng Chu u. 1.1. N cng l g? Trc khi tm hiu v din bin cuc khng hong ny, ta nn bt u t vic tm hiu n cng l g. Thc cht, n cng hay cn gi l n chnh ph, n quc gia l tng gi tr cc khon tin m chnh ph thuc mi cp t trung ng n a phng i vay nhm ti tr cho cc khon thm ht ngn sch. d hnh dung quy m ca n chnh ph, ngi ta s dng thc o t l phn trm khon n ny trong tng sn phm quc ni GDP. Vy chnh ph i vay t u? Cu tr li l chnh ph c th vay t ngi cho vay trong nc v ngi ngoi nc, l nhng ngi nm gi ti chnh. Nh vy, n chnh ph bao gm khon n trong nc v khon n nc ngoi. Vic i vay ca chnh ph c thc hin thng qua pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph vay t cc t chc, c nhn. i vi t chc, c nhn trong nc, Nh nc pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph bng ni t. Khon i vay ny c coi l khng c ri ro tn dng v chnh ph c th tng thu, thm ch in thm tin thanh ton c gc ln li khi o hn. Cn i vi vic pht hnh tri phiu bng ngoi t i vay nc ngoi, thng l cc ngoi t mnh c cu ln, khon tin vay ny c ri ro tn dng cao hn so vi khon vay trong nc v chnh ph c th khng c ngun ngoi t thanh ton, thm vo chnh ph c th phi chu ri ro v t gi hi oi. Nh vy, khng hong n Chu u c hiu l mt s thnh vin thuc khi 17 nc ng tin chung chu u mc n qu nhiu v khng cn kh nng tr n, khin cc nh u t v ngn hng cho vay tin hong lon. Cc nh u t lo s khon cho vay b mt trng, v th s tm cch rt

khon vay ca mnh v m bo an ton. iu ny lm cho nguy c cc ngn hng cho vay sp l rt cao. Theo hiu ng dy chuyn, cc doanh nghip s khng vay c vn kinh doanh. T , cuc suy thoi Chu u s lan rng ra phm vi ton cu. Trong mt nn kinh t an xen rng buc ln nhau, s sp nu xy ra ca khi ng tin chung Chu u s dn n cuc khng hong ton din trn khp th gii. 1.2. Din bin cuc khng hong n cng chu u 2010. Khng hong n cng bng n cc nc EU u nm 2010 vi tm chn l Hy Lp. Cuc khng hong lan rng ra cc nc khu vc ng Euro. Theo thng k ca Qu tin t quc t (IMF), Nht Bn l nc c t l tng n cng quc gia (Gross general government debt) trn GDP ln nht vi mc 220% GDP, tip theo l Hy Lp vi 142.8% GDP, 119%, B 96,7%, Ai-len vi 94,9%. Trong khi , cc nn kinh t tr ct ca EU cng c t l rt cao nh: c 84%, Anh 75.5% v Php 82.4%. Cng quc kinh t M c t s n ln n 94.4%. Tuy nhin, nu tnh thm vo ti sn ti chnh m quc gia nm gi, th Hy Lp mi l nc c t l n rng quc gia (Net general government debt) trn GDP ln nht vi 142% GDP, sau mi n Nht Bn vi 117% GDP. im ng ch l mc d Nht Bn v c t l n cng trn GDP ln. C quan im nghi ng rng Nht Bn chnh l mt phin bn cu Hi Lp trong cuc khng hong n cng ny, nhng khng phi nh vy. Khi phn tch n cng ca Nht Bn cho thy c s khc bit kh ln gia n cng ca nc ny vi n cng ca Hy Lp, th hin ch, 95% tri phiu

chnh ph ca Nht Bn do ngi dn nc ny nm gi, trong khi 70% n chnh ph Hy Lp do ngi nc ngoi nm gi. Bn cnh , Nht cn t ch v t gi hi oi, d tr ngoi t ca Nht cng mc rt cao. Do vy, nn kinh t Nht Bn, mc d ngoi n cng cao cn ng trc nhiu kh khn khc na, nhng kh c th tr thnh mc tiu tn cng ca gii u c quc t.

General Government Gross Debt (Percentage of GDP)

% 250 200 150 100 50 0
n Po ce rtu g Ge al rm an y UK Au str ia Ne Spa i th er n la nd s Ja pa Gr n ee ce Ita Be ly lg iu m Ic el an Ire d la nd Fr a US

220

142.8 119 96.7 92.4 94.9 94.4 82.4 92.9 84 75.5 72.2 60.1 63.7

Hnh 1: Biu t l tng n cng quc gia trn GDP nm 2010 ca 14 nc. Ngun: IMF.

General Government Net Debt (Percentage of GDP)

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Ja pa Gr n ee ce Ita Be ly lg iu Ic m ela n Ire d la nd U Fr S an Po ce rtu Ge gal rm an y U Au K str ia Ne Spa th in er la nd s

% 142 117.2 99.4 81.1 62.6 78 68.3 76.6 88.7 57.6 67.7 52.4 48.7 27.7

Hnh 2: Biu t l n rng quc gia trn GDP nm 2010 ca 14 nc. Ngun: IMF. Cc hnh ng cu tr.. Ngay khi nguy c v n n gn, cc gi cu tr c tung ra. Ngy 9/5/2010, B trng B Ti chnh chu u thng qua gi gii cu tr gi 750 t euro nhm m bo s n nh ti chnh khu vc chu u, v lp ra y ban n nh Ti chnh chu u (European Financial Stability Facility EFSF). Phn ng ca cc nc pht trin trc p lc n cng ngy cng phnh to l thc thi nhng chnh sch tht lng buc bng nhn c cc gi cu tr. Ngy 2/5/2010, cc nc thnh vin khu vc eurozone v IMF thng qua khon vay 110 t euro cho Hy Lp, vi iu kin nc ny phi thc thi cc bin php tht lng buc bng khc nghit.

Tip theo l gi cu tr tr gi 85 t euro cho Ireland vo thng 11/2010 v 78 t euro cho B o Nha vo thng 5/2011. Vo thng 8/2011, Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB) tung ra s tin kh ln mua li tri phiu Chnh ph ca v Ty Ban Nha, vi iu kin cc nc ny phi ct gim chi tiu mnh m hn. Gn y nht, sau khi Hy Lp hon tt tha thun hon i n lch s vi cc ch n t nhn vo ngy 12/3/2012, cc b trng ti chnh khu vc ng euro (Eurozone) trong cng ngy thng qua ln cui i vi gi cu tr th hai tr gi 130 t euro (170 t USD) cho nc ny v hai ngy sau quyt nh gii ngn cc khon cho vay u tin 39,4 t euro. Ngy 15/3/2012, Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) cng thng qua khon vay 28 t euro cho Hy Lp nh mt phn ca gi cu tr v s gii ngn ngay lp tc 1,65 t euro. S ph chun ny ca IMF kt thc nhiu thng lo u ca Hy Lp, khi t nc cn k nguy c ph sn, vi ngha v thanh ton 14,5 t euro vo ngy 20/3. Hi Lp thot ra khi nguy c v n. Tnh n thi im u nm 2012, cn bo khng hong n cng chu u c du hiu tm lng. Theo d bo ca IMF, t l n cng ca cc nc vn tng cho n ht nm 2012 v bt u gim khi bc vo giai on 2013-2014. Tuy nhin, tc ng tch cc ca cc gi cu tr cu Hi Lp thot khi nguy c v n, gip cho xp hng tn dng ca Hy Lp c nng ln ln u tin k t khi khng hong n bt u. V pha c, ch s lng tin ca cc nh u t ang lm gia tng hy vng kinh t c s tr vng trong nm ti. Theo nh gi ca IMF, B o Nha c th t mc tiu gim thm ht ngn sch xung cn 4,5% GDP trong nm nay. Bn cnh , nc ny

cng ang gim mc n nhanh hn d bo. Trc y gn mt nm, B o Nha phi nhn gi cu tr tr gi 78 t euro (103 t USD) t EU v IMF. Thm vo , Italy thnh cng ln trn th trng tri phiu, khi pht hnh c 6 t euro (7,8 t USD) tri phiu vi li sut gim. iu ny cho thy cc nh u t ang tr nn tin tng hn vo kinh t Italy v hn th, y l du hiu cho thy cuc khng hong n Eurozone ang du bt. Thng d thng mi ca Ireland trong nm 2011 t k lc 44,697 t euro (58,347 t USD), nh xut khu tng mnh. iu ng ni l Ireland tng phi nhn s cu tr ti chnh 85 t euro t Lin minh chu u (EU) v IMF. Nc ny hin vn ang ph thuc rt ln vo hot ng xut khu trong n lc nhm vc dy nn kinh t. S tng trng xut khu l mt tn hiu tch cc cho thy kinh t Ireland c th cn phc hi mnh m hn na. Nh vy, hu ht cc nc tng dn u trong khng hong n cng nh Hi Lp, B o Nha, Ai-len, Italy, c, u c nhng du hiu tch cc, cho thy cuc khng hong ny hin ang du bt v mang li hy vng cho nn kinh t th gii. 1.3. Nguyn nhn. Nhn vo bc tranh chung ca cuc khng hong n, chc hn ngi ta s li cho Hy Lp, Italy hay Ty Ban Nha v h l nhng quc gia thiu trch nhim i vay qu nhiu, ri chi tiu khng kim sot, do c hng li sut u i vi t cch l thnh vin ca khi eurozone. Tuy nhin, cn xt nguyn nhn mt cch k lng hn.

Cuc khng hong c ngun gc su xa l ch phc li c thit lp t sau i chin th gii th II theo hng "chi nhiu hn thu." Thi quen ko di nhiu thp k ny khin cc chnh ph chu u d dng vay mn i ph vi cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu nm 2008, song s vung tay qu trn khng tng ng vi tc tng trng kinh t y lc a gi vo tnh trng thm ht ngn sch nh nc v n cng cao ngt ngng. Nguyn nhn th hai l do tit kim trong nc thp dn ti phi vay n nc ngoi cho chi tiu cng. Chi tiu cng tng cao dn n thm ht ngn sch. Trong khi , s tip cn d di vi ngun vn u t nc ngai v vic s dng ngun vn khng hiu qu. Gii phn tch cho rng, cc nc trong khi eurozone c cc ch s tn dng cp quc gia khc nhau, th Ngn hng Chu u (ECB) li p dng cng mt mc li sut cho vay ging nhau n c 17 nc ny. Khi nhng nc nh Hy Lp c hng li vay ngang bng nh c hay Php th Hy Lp c c tin vay qu d dng v h chi dng qu mc l iu hon ton d hiu. Ngun thu gim st cng l mt nhn t dn ti tnh trng thm ht ngn sch v gia tng n cng. V d nh trng hp ca Hy Lp, h thng thu vi nhiu mc thu cao v b lut phc tp cng vi s iu tit d tha v thiu hiu qu ca c quan qun l l nguyn nhn dn n tnh trng trn thu v kinh t ngm pht trin Hy Lp. Trn thu v hot ng kinh t ngm Hy Lp li l nhn t lm gim ngun thu ngn sch.