Jacek Piskozub

Institute of Oceanology PAS

Sopot, Poland

Lecture 6:
Climate change threats,
(Part II: Arctic climate and global sea level)

Ho Chi Minh City, December 2007

 Jacek Piskozub
Hi Chi Minh City lectures, December 2007

 Ecosystem approach to valuation of marine coasts: examples from Baltic

Sea
 Marine aerosol source function: approaching the consensus
 Ocean as the sink and source of climatically important gases
 Air sea interaction in the global scale: from multidecadal variability to
Arctic Oscillation
 Climate change threats, Part I: Changes in the climate of the tropic
 Climate change threats, Part II: Arctic climate and global sea level
 Polar areas undergo especially strong
global warming related change due to
strong positive climate feedback of
decreasing snow and ice coverage.

Zwally 2006 (AMS polar ice meeting) after... CIA

 Forecast:
end of the 21th century

Examples of climate
modeling result (average
for a model set ). Figures
show predicted average
temperature change for
years 2071-2100
comparing with 1910-1990
for IPCC scenarios A2 i B2.

The extremely large

temperature increase in the
Arctic, even by 8 degrees.
The same prognoses
forecast Arctic precipitation
increasing up to 40%.

IPCC Report: Climate Change 2001

In 1972 one could still believe
that the Antarctic ice sheet
increases its mass due to
greater precipitation than
evaporation (P-E). The figure
shows the P-E as positive
everywhere (units are 100 kg
m-2 year-1) and snow
accumulation (I – increase, D
– decrease, N – no change). In
1972 it was not clear whether
this balance is the whole
picture (ice movement was not
deemed important).
Jacobs 1972 (Science)‫‏‬
 Ice sheet mass balance

Ice-sheet mass balance depends not only on the P-E difference (precipitation
is mostly snow and „evaporation” means also sublimation), but also on the
mass of ice flowing to become floating ice-shelves and on the amount of
water runoff flowing to the sea over, under and through the ice.
Zwally 2006 (polar ice AMS meeting)‫‏‬
 Ice-free Antarctic

Almost the whole West

Antarctic is an ice-sheet
sitting on the shallow shelf
sea bottom. Drilling through
ice in point „UpB” showed
that West Antarctic was ice-
free at least once in the latest
750.000 years. Melting West
Antarctic ice-sheet would
mean a global ocean level
increase of 5-6 m, the East
Antarctic one (which did not
happen in last several million
years) would increase the
sea level by about 60 m.

The difference comes from

the fact that West Antarctic
ice-sheet already sits on the
sea bottom.
Scherer et al. 1998 (Science)‫‏‬
 Ice shelves of Antarctic Peninsula

A
Larsen B
C

Wordie

Ice shelf positions

and average surface
temperatures before
1981

Ice barriers of Antarctic Peninsula are in

retreat since 1945. They can exist only with
Vaughan & Doake 1996 (Nature)‫‏‬ the annual average temperature of > -5 ºC .
 Antarctic Peninsula is quickly warming

Antarctic Peninsula is one

of the fastest warming
areas of our planet.

Observation duration,
observed trends of
temperature [ºC/century]
with error and significance
level of the trend.

Vaughan et al. 2001 (Science)‫‏‬

 Larsen-A disintegrated in 1995

In summer of 1995, Larsen-B ice shelf lost a fragment of 2400 km2. In the
same time (January 5 - February 16) the whole Larsen-A barrier become a
field of floating icebergs.

Gammie 1995 (Nature) & NOAA

 Larsen-B collapsed in 2002

Jes

http://web.pdx.edu/~chulbe/science/Larsen/larsen2002.html
Why should we care about ice-barriers?

There is a hypothesis that ice-shelves support

the continental ice-sheets exactly as the flying
buttresses (left) of medieval Gothic cathedrals,
supporting part of the ice-sheet weight. This
may mean that the ice will flow faster towards
the ocean after an ice-shelf collapses. Recently
such phenomenon was actually observed.

Alley 2006 (AMS polar ice meeting)‫‏‬

 Retreat of Antarctic Peninsula glaciers

87% of AP glaciers retreated since they started to

be systematically studied. The retreat started
around 1953 and is becoming ever faster (right).
The changes fit temperature increase of o 3.5 ºC
(glaciers start shrinking between -9 and -5 ºC) Cook et al. 2005 (Science)‫‏‬
 Ice streams of the Antarctic

The Antarctic ice streams move even 1500 m/year. Suming up the P-E
anomalies and ice-stream movements in 2002 gives -48 ± 14 km3/year (ice
loss) for West Antarctic and +22 ± 23 km3/year (ice gain) for East Antarctic.
Rignot & Thomas 2002 (Science)‫‏‬
 Is the Antarctic becoming colder?

Interpolation of the extremely

undeveloped meteorological
network of the Antarctic, seems to
show that the interior became
colder between 1966 and 2000,
especially in summer and autumn,
but also annually (top).

Cooling of the atmosphere (at

east the stratosphere) over the
Antarctic may be connected with
the deepening of the ozone hole
(ozone absorbs in the ultraviolet).

Doran et al. 2002 (Nature)‫‏‬

 The Antarctic ozone hole

Cumulation in the atmosphere of man made freons created a spring

minimum of ozone concentration (the „ozone hole”).
Doran et al. 2002 (Nature)‫‏‬
 Ozone hole problem is not over, yet

Freons which destroy the stratospheric ozone are no longer produced but
the situation over the Antarctic has not yet improved although 2007 was
better than recent years. Ozone hole is at maximum in spring (September
and October in the Southern Hemisphere). www.theozonehole.com
 Is there more snow falling in the Antarctic?

Data from ice cores and accumulation models do not show any significant
increase trend in Antarctic snowfall during the latest 50 years.
Monaghan et al. 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
 Ocean can also melt glaciers

Warming of the ocean intermediate waters may also increase melting of

glaciers (ice barriers) sitting on continental shelfs (for example Pine Island
glacier) with its base 1000 m below the sea level which loses 1.5 m yearly
close to its grounding line.
Bindschadler 2006 (Science); Shepard et al 2001 (Science)‫‏‬
 Solution from outer space: gravity

The GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission three years
of Antarctic gravity field measurements (shown monthly) show large ice losses:
-152 ± 80 km3/year which corresponds to +0.4 ± 0.2 mm/year ocean level
change (East 0 ± 56 km3/year and Zachodnia Antarctic -148 ± 21 km3/year)
Velicogna & Wahr 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
 Balance of balances

Ice mass balance (separate!) for East (top) and West (bottom) Antarctic is
becoming more and more negative (especially in WA). Improvement of
measurement methods, climate change or both?
Cazenave 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
 Summary 1/3

 Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the fastest

warming areas of Earth. This results in
ice shelf collapse and velocity increase of
ice streams.
 The West Antarctic ice-sheet rests mostly

on continental shelf (below sea level).

During the last million years it was free of Mission GRACE: two satellites
ice at least once. Its total melting would (American and German) measuring
increase ocean level by about 6 m. precisely the distance between them
 The East Antarctic ice-sheet seems stable. We are not even sure

whether its temperature increases or decreases.

 However, the hypothesis of increasing East Antarctic ice-sheet mass

due to increased snow precipitation has not been confirmed..

 Antarctic ice mass balance done using the gravimetric method shows

stable mass of the East Antarctic and ice loss in the West Antarctic
(translating into a +0.4 ± 0.2 mm/year ocean level change)
 Greenland during the previous interglacial...

Melting the ice-sheet of Greenland would increase global sea level by about
7 m. During the previous interglacial (circa 120 ka), when the sea level was
7 m higher than at present, Greenland was responsible for 4 to 5 m. The
figure shows possible extend of the ice-sheet at the time; the most probable
variant is somewhere between b) and c).
Cuffey & Marshal 2000 (Nature)‫‏‬
... and in future

Greenland ice-sheet today

and results of modeling its
future as a function of CO 2
atmospheric concentration
and year.

After being melted,

Greenland ice-sheet will not
return to present state even if
the temperature does. The
ice-sheet creates its own
micro-climate which cools
Greenland. For re-glaciation
of Greenland, one would
need a full new glacial era.

Alley et al. 2005 (Science)‫‏‬

Czy roztopimy Grenlandię

There are estimates that only 3 ºC

average yearly temperature
increase is needed to melt
Greenland ice-sheet. The figures
show yearly (top) and summer
(bottom) predicted temperature
increases with different IPCC future
climate scenarios.

Most scenarios reach the threshold

temperature before 2100. However
melting Greenland would probably
take as long as 1000 years.

Gregory, Huybrechts & Raper 2004 (Nature)‫‏‬

 Water is the glacier lube

Horizontal glacier velocity (top), and

sometimes also the vertical
component (middle) is proportional
to the number of days with positive
surface temperature. The only way
such signal can penetrate to the
glacier bottom is with water which
works as lubricant.
Zwally et al. 2002 (Science)‫‏‬
Faster melting of Greenland in recent years

In recent years acceleration of Greenland

melting, reaching into higher altitudes has
been observed.

The photo shows mis-June satellite

photographs of the same area in three
consecutive years (Attention: bottom
panel should be dated 2003!) showing
progressing area of summer ice
melting.

Schiermeier 2004 (Nature)‫‏‬

Glaciers move faster and faster

Velocity of Jakobshavn Isbrae the

largest glacier (ice stream) of
Greenland from satellite radar altimetry
in February 1992 and October 2000.
Left, velocity as a unction of distance
from the glacier 1985 front (feature
tracking on Landsat photos) for different
years. The glacier seems to accelerate
significantly in recent years.
Joughin et al. 2004 (Nature)‫‏‬
 Jakobshavn Isbrae retreats since 19th century

Figure shows the glacier front and temperatures in meteorological stations

marked on the Greenland map. Joughin 2006 (Science)‫‏‬
 Front line of the
Jakobshavn glacier

svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet: 1992 i 2005
Gravimetry results: accelarating ice loss

Gravity measurement by the

GRACE mission made it possible to
calculate Greenland ice balance.
The result -248 ± 36 km3/year is
enough to increase world sea level
by +0.5 ± 0.1 mm/year. Earlier
Greenland ice balances gave
results from -0.02 to +0.09 mm/year.

Dividing Greenland into two areas

(top) made it possible to estimate
ice loss of the North (blue line and
red trend) and South(green line and
blue trend) Greenland; respectively
-161 ± 24 km3/year and -
83 ± 18 km3/year.

Velicogna & Wahr 2006 (Science)‫‏‬

 Balance of balances

Mass balance of Greenland ice changes to more negative – most probably

the result of both measurement improvements as the actual climate change.

Cazenave 2006 (Science)‫‏‬

 For the statisticians

Listing the ice sheet mass balances of East Antarctic (EAIS), West Antarctic
(WAIS), the total Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland (GIS) ice sheets.

Shepard & Wingham 2007 (Science)‫‏‬

Alley 2006 (polar ice AMS meeting)‫‏‬
 Other glaciers

Melting of Canada, Alaska, Svalbard and mountain glaciers according IPCC

2007 report increase the sea level by 0.77 ± 0.22 mm/year (out of the total
increase of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/year). If we add the GRACE mission results of
2006 (not taken into account by IPCC in 2007), the balance closure is almost
full: 0.4 + 0.5 + 0.77 + 1.6 = 3.27 ≈ 3.1 mm/year (errors are much larger than
the difference) Figure: Smith et al. 1975 (Science)‫‏‬
 Summary 2/3
 Greenland during the previous
interglacial was partly ice free.
Increasing the annual average
temperature by 3 ºC should be enough
to melt the ice-sheet within 1000 years
This would increase the global sea level
by about 7 m.
 In recent years ice surface below

2000 m altitude melts increasingly fast

which results in faster movement of the
whole ice streams towards the sea.
 Above 2000 m altitude, increased

snowfall results in positive mass change

but the equilibrium altitude increases.
 Total Greenland gravimetrically

measured mass balance is negative and

corresponds to between 2 and 5 Water from melting glacier surface is a
mm/year ocean level increase. This lubricant which increases the ice slide
trend seems to accelerate fast. (Zwally 2002 – Science cover)‫‏‬
 Asymetria zmian pokrycia lodem
mórz Arktycznych i Antarktycznych

Od roku ok. 1980 obserwuje się

przeciwstawne trendy pokrycia oceanu
lodem:

- malejący trend w Arktyce (na górze)

- rosnący trend w Antarktyce (na dole)

Niesymetryczne zmiany między tymi

obszarami związane są zwykle ze zmianą
proporcji wody głębinowej (cyrkulacja
termohalinowa) produkowanej na Północy
oraz na Południu. Czy tak jest i tym razem?

Cavalieri et al. 1997 (Science)‫‏‬

 Arctic Seas

Jes

Karcher et al. 2003 (JGR)‫‏‬

 Predicted warming of the Arctic

Average change (DJF) of Arctic winter (DJF) temperature between 1980-1999

and 2070-2089 prognosed assuming B1 IPCC scenario (using 14 general
circulation climate models) Walsh 2006 (IARC overview) after IPCC
 Waking up of the Arctic

Changes in the Arctic Sea were first noticed in 1996.

Macdonald 1996 (Nature)‫‏‬
 Inflow of warm Atlantic waters into Arctic Ocean

Results of Atlantic water inflow modeling for 1979 and 1993 (and their
difference) using a Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
model with meteorological forcing assimilation

Maslowski i inni, 2000

 Filling Arctic Ocean with warm water

The Atlantic warm water “signal” moves into the Arctic results
of measurements (red lines) and model (dashed lines). The
marker colors describe the same warm water “signals”.
(Polyakov i inni, 2005)‫‏‬
 The Arctic “cold halocline”

The Arctic (or “cold”) halocline is a layer of cold and relatively fresh water
over warm and salty Atlantic waters (more correctly halocline should mean
the border between the waters). Cold surface water comes from the Siberian
rivers and from sea ice melting (sea ice rejects salt when freezing).
 On the way to Arctic Ocean

Anomaly of heat content and water currents (arrows) of Atlantic

waters at 100 m depth. Walczowski i Piechura, 2006 (Geophysical Research Letters)‫‏‬
Water temperature ( Year 2006) , level 100 m. and heat flux [W/m^2]
Heat flux [w/m^2]

-90 to -40
-40 to 0
0 to 10
10 to 20
20 to 40
40 to 90

temperature

6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
Cruise of Kapitan Dranicin, summer 2006
 RESULTS from M1 Mooring
Three-year long temperature record from M1 mooring

+0.4 +0.4

Exceptionally strong warming in the Atlantic Water layer has been recorded
since February 2004
NABOS 2006 Expedition
Arctic Expedition for K-12 Teachers
Maslowski 2006
 Younger sea ice

Ice age in September

from drifters and
modeling.

The ice is increasingly

younger.

This must mean that

its volume is
decreasing faster than
its surface area.

Acoustic
measurements from
nuclear submarines
show a similar trend

Richter-Menge et al. 2006

(State of the Arctic)‫‏‬
 Prognoses of Arctic sea ice extent (2007)

Percentage of sea ice coverage of Arctic Ocean in March and September 2075-
2084 for scenario A1B modeled using CCSM3. The state of our knowledge and
modeling prowess in 2007.

Serreze, Holland & Stroeve 2007 (Science)‫‏‬

 Niestety nasze modele są zbyt optymistyczne

Pokrycie Oceanu Arktycznego lodem we wrześniu; modele (błękitny pas) i

9-letnią średnią pomiarów (czerwona linia). Modele przewidują zbyt wolne
zmiany w porównaniu z zachodzącymi. Jeśli przedłużyć czerwoną linię...
www.ucar.com after Stroeve et al. 2007 (Geophysical Review Letters)‫‏‬
 2007 brought a record summer sea ice loss...

In summer 2007 (left), the North-Western sea passage through Arctic

Canada was free of ice first time in recorded history. The previous record
year was 2005 (right). www.nsidc.org
September ice extent from 1979 to 2007

www.nsidc.org changed from Meier Strove Fetterer 2007 (Annals of Glaciology)

 Sea level changes measured from satellite

On average (1993-2003) sea level rises by 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/year of which

thermal expansion explains 1.6 ± 0.5 mm/year (IPCC 2007 Report).
Cabanes, Casenave & Le Provost 2001 (Science)‫‏‬
 We still cannot model the geographic distribution

Four models out of several used by IPCC: the geographic distributions of sea
level changes in the 21th century are quite different (unit is meter/century).
Church 2001 (Science)‫‏‬
 Predicted sea level changes

The predicted rate of sea level change in many scenarios is even slower than
the present one (1993-2003). Can it be correct?

IPCC Report: Climate Change 2001

 Results from different general circulation models

Distribution of sea rise predictions for one climate change scenario (IS92a)
modeled with several general circulation models.

www.globalwarmingart.com after IPCC Report: Climate Change 2001

 Sea rise rate proportional to temperature?

Up to now, the sea level rise rate

correlated well (r = 0.88) with average
Earth temperature (top).

Right the smoothened measured rate of

sea level rise (red) and calculated using
a linear dependence on mean Earth
temperature rise over previous
equilibrium (blue with standard deviation
marked). Below measured sea level (red)
and integrated sea level rise (blue) from
the same simple formula. Rahmstorf 2007 (Science)‫‏‬
 IPCC is already wrong...

IPCC scenarios start in 1990.

Temperature increase between 1990 and
2006 (solid line in middle panel) forced
by CO2 increase (top panel) overlaps the
top part of IPCC forecasts (dashed lines
are for ΔT2x= 3.0 ºC while the grey zone
is for range of 1.7-4.2 ºC).

However, IPCC forecasts of sea level rise

(dashed blue line is the average and grey
forecast the range from different models)
underestimate satellite measurements
(solid blue line) and tide gauges (solid
red). The center of IPCC forecast is 2
mm/year while the measured trend has
recently been 3.3 mm/year.

Rahmstorf et al. 2007 (Science)‫‏‬

 IPCC sea level forecasts severely underestimated?

IPCC 2001 report predict 21th century sea level rise for 21-77 cm/century.
Calculating it from IPCC temperature rise predictions and Rahmstorf linear
dependence of sea level rise rate gives 55-125 cm/century (50-140
cm/century when taking account for statistical error).

Rahmstorf 2007 (Science)‫‏‬

 Summary 3/3
 Since 1993 Arctic Ocean fill up with
warm Atlantic waters (making North
Atlantic less salty at the same time).
 Arctic sea ice is disappearing even
faster than predicted by the
pessimistic forecasts. Last season
2007 was a record low with the
North-Western Passage free of ice for
the first time in recorded history.
 IPCC models predict sea level
increase (due to glacial melting and Nuclear submarines were until recently the
water heat expansion) of up to 77 cm one of the few sources of data on Arctic
before 2100. Ocean sea ice
 However, the prognoses seem too conservative as already the sea level
increases faster (3.3 mm/year) than any IPCC forecasts.
 If the sea level rise rate will continue to be proportional to average Earth

temperature rise, the sea level rise in the 21th century may be greater
than 1 meter.