Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Page 1 of 8
Home Welcome! The Concept About Us Public Speaking The Forecasts Readers' Fav Posts Monthly The Articles 200 Years 10 Wave Guides The State of the Wave Daily Wavelets Contact Us Disclaimer
May 12 2010
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 2 of 8
But what happens if the U.S. switches spending from defense to social welfare? Who will protect what used to be known as the Free World? it will be increasingly hard to be globocop and nanny state at the same time. Harvard economist Benjamin Friedman (2005) expands the point to explicitly include space, A rising average income allows a country to project its national interest abroad, or send a man to the Moon. Political scientist and blogger Thomas Barnett likes to refer to the U.S. as the Leviathan. In 2009 we spent as much on defense ($ 660 B) as the rest of the world combined. But major entitlement programs currently cost 35% of GNP, about twice that of defense. It takes exceptional mental prowess to remember when U.S. entitlement spending initially exceeded defense (in 1976). And Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid have expanded dramatically since then. ObamaCare will accelerate the trend. Prosperity is a Moral Imperative In his monumental book, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth (2005), Harvard economics professor Benjamin Friedman presents the case for prosperity as a moral imperative. Even in America, I believe, the quality of our democracy - more fundamentally, the moral character of American society is similarly at risk. He shows that economic growth, rather than just the level of living standards is the key to political and social liberalization around the world as well as in the U.S.. Merely being rich is no protection against societys retreat into rigidity and intolerance. Periods of economic expansion in America and elsewhere, during which most citizens had reason to be optimistic, have also witnessed greater openness, tolerance, and democracy. To repeat: such advances occur for many reasons. But the effect of economic growth versus stagnation is an important and often central part of the story. Friedmans comments mirror the general trends of the long economic wave which peaked most recently in the late 1960s, declined into the 1990s, and should ignite another Kennedy-style long boom by 2015: The central economic question for the United States at the outset of the twenty-first century is whether the nation in the generation ahead will again achieve increasing prosperity, as in the decades following World War II, or lapse back into the stagnation of living standards for the majority of our citizens that persisted from the early 1970s until the early 1990s But even the prosperity in the late 1990s bypassed large parts, in some important dimensions a clear majority, of the countrys citizens So for most people, it is persistent real growth in wages and low unemployment that trigger the twice-per-century Maslowian ebullience which momentarily creates broad public approval of great explorations and MEPs like Apollo in the 1960s and the new international space age expected near 2015. And in addition to its profound technological impact on society, prosperity is also a moral imperative that historically results in more openness, tolerance, and democracy thoughout the world.
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 3 of 8
Despite our current circumstances, there is every reason to believe that the 2015 Maslow Window will be the best of both worlds. No responses yet Trackback URI | Comments RSS
Leave a Reply
Name (required) Mail (hidden) (required) Website
Submit Comment
"...Patterns in long-term trends over the last 200 years...point specifically toward the human colonization of space in the next 20!" Our approach is different -- Although lots of information about space is continually synthesized and updated we: 1. Track our detailed, timed forecasts out to 2030 against the facts 2. Factor in a broad range of non-space as well as space influences 3. Every other week, reveal the "State of the Wave" 4. Comment on the meaning of key events each day: "The Wavelets"
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 4 of 8
Recent Posts
Why Humans Became #1 and How Technology and Sex Lead to Unprecedented Prosperity Animal Spirits, Complexity, and The Most Dangerous Guy Out There Prosperity: A Technological and a Moral Imperative 21stCenturyWaves.com on the Web A Recent Summary, May 2010 Space: The Fractal Frontier How Complexity Drives Exploration
Categories
Daily Wavelets State of the Wave Wave Guide 1: Economic Growth Wave Guide 2: Public Opinion Wave Guide 3: Politics Wave Guide 4: Education Wave Guide 5: International Space Wave Guide 6: Entrepreneurs Wave Guide 7: NASA Programs Wave Guide 8: Non-Space MEPs Wave Guide 9: Global Conflict Wave Guide 10: Pop Culture Readers' Favorite Posts Perspectives Uncategorized
Archives
Select Month
1. The Economy
21st Century Roadmap GaTech Bloomberg.com Congressional Budget Office Financial Forecast Center, Houston, TX Goldman Sachs Global Outlook Harry S. Dent Economic Forecasting Kiel Institute for the World Economy Office of Management and Budget The White House Oxford Analytica Global Strategic Analysis Real Clear Markets The Economist Vox Center for Economic Policy Research, London, UK Wall Street Journal Legatum Prosperity Index, London Downsizing the Federal Government
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 5 of 8
Research Papers in Economics Financial Life Cycle Planning TechCast Virtual Think Tank
2. Public Opinion
Florida Today Gallup Houston Chronicle Intrade The Prediction Market Mars Society San Diego NASA Watch Next Big Future Orange County Space Society Rasmussen Reports The Space Foundation Tsvi Bisk Zogby International Orlando Sentinel
3. Politics
American Enterprise Institute Brookings Institution Gordon Chang Heritage Foundation Hudson Institute Jim Dator Michael McFaul Michelle Malkin Real Clear Politics Space Policy Inst George Washington Univ Space Politics The Huffington Post Larry Sabato
4. Education
Hoover Institution Education and Academic Performance Keck Futures Initiative NASA Space Calendar National Academy of Sciences National Science Foundation National Science Teachers Association Science Daily Science News Magazine The Space Writer U.S. Department of Education The Arlington Institute
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 6 of 8
5. International Space
Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) British Interplanetary Society Canadian Space Agency Center for Strategic & International Studies Space China National Space Administration Cumbrian Sky European Space Agency Final Frontier GlobalSecurity.org Space Indian Space Research Organization Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Korea Aerospace Research Institute La Orilla Cosmica Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) Space Law, Univ Mississippi Stephen Ashworth, UK Terraforming Info Pages Martyn Fogg Commercial Space Canada CIA The World Factbook
6. Entrepreneurs
Bigelow Aerospace Galactic Mining Industries Kentucky Space Nathan Myhrvold's Intellectual Ventures Lab Richard Branson SpaceDev Spaceport America, Las Cruces, NM Toffler Associates Virgin Galactic Commercial Spaceflight Federation Space Business Blog
9. Global Conflict
Air Force Space Command Center for Strategy & Technology CIDCM Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California, San Diego National Security Space Office Robert Kagan Stratfor Thomas P. M. Barnett U. S. Central Command
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 7 of 8
7. NASA
AstroEngine Boeing Centauri Dreams Colony Worlds Fox News Space International Space Station Lockheed Martin Mars Blog MSNBC Space NASA Headquarters Out of the Cradle Paul Spudis The Apollo Program The Saturn V Launch Vehicle The Write Stuff United Launch Alliance Universe Today The Global Warming Policy Foundation
8. Non-Space MEPs
Foresight 2100, French NGO IIASA, Austria Large Hadron Collider Mackinac Bridge Authority Panama Canal Authority RMS Titanic SS Great Eastern Suez Canal Authority Transatlantic Telegraph Cable Global Infrastructure Fund
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010
Page 8 of 8
Long Waves
Brian J.L. Berry Long Waves, Economics, & Politics Cesare Marchetti Technology, Economics & the 56 Year Energy Cycle Christian Zimmermann Real Business Cycle Home Page Edward Cheung Long Waves and Demographics George Modelski Long Cycle World Politics Theory Ian Gordon, Longwave Group Economics Joshua Goldstein Long Wave Theory and War Michael A. Alexander Long Waves & Generational Cycles NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Long Waves (2005) Strauss and Howe Long Waves, Generations, & History
Meta
Search
Tags
56 year energy cycle 2015 Maslow Window
Maslow Window
MEP MEPs Moon NASA Neil Armstrong Obama Panama Canal Panic of 1893 Panic of 2008 President Kennedy Russia space colonization Sputnik Suez Canal Theodore Roosevelt
Titanic
Site Admin | WordPress Theme 21st Century Waves Copyright 2010 All Rights Reserved .
http://21stcenturywaves.com/2010/05/12/prosperity-a-technological-and-a-moral-imperativ... 5/29/2010