Created by Do Duc Kha

AI HOC
QUC
GIA TP H CHI MINH
KHOA KINH T - LUT

S DUNG

SPSS TRONG MARKETING

VA QUAN
TRI BAN
HANG

BIN SOAN:
C KHA

NM 2009
I.
THNG K M T, D BAO
BAN
HANG

1. M t cc ch s thng k ca doanh thu (nm):

- Nhp s liu doanh thu vo bng tnh (Xem v d trong bng)
- Xc nh bin (nm) bng cch:
Trn thanh cng c, chn data,
define dates
years (nm)
ok

Created by Do Duc Kha

2

i tn cc bin t ting Anh sang ting Vit: T Variable View (gc

tri, cui bng), chn Label, g tn nhn. lm trn s, t Decimals, g s 0
vo hng 1 (doanh s) v hng 2 (nm)

M t s liu qua cc ch tiu: Trn thanh cng c, chn Analyze

Reports Case Summaries, chn doanh so ban hang, v chuyn sang
ct bn phi, bng cch kch vo mi tn, sau nh du cc mc pha
di.

Created by Do Duc Kha

3
Trong mc Statistics, chn cc bin cn m t, sau click Continue v
OK
S trng hp
Trung bnh
Trung v
Sai s chun TB
Tng
S nh nht
S ln nht
lch chun

Bng m t tm tt cho kt qu nh sau:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total

Case Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
N
Mean
Median
Std. Error of
Mean
Sum
Minimum
Maximum
Std.
Deviation

Doanh so
ban hang
12000
12100
12120
12346
13456
13423
13521
13672
13698
14100
10
13043.60
13439.50
253.863
130436
12000
14100
802.787

2. Doanh s bn hng ca cc ca hng trong khu vc phn phi nh

sau
VT: Triu ng
Nm
Ca hng A Ca hng B Ca hng C Ca hng D Ca hng E
1995
12000
9800
7231
8210
6772
1996
12100
9878
7643
8331
6789
1997
12120
9910
7824
8497
6806
1998
12346
9938
7891
8499
6824
1999
13456
10100
8012
8545
6871
2000
13423
11010
8027
8601
6885
2001
13521
11200
8100
8643
6900
3

Created by Do Duc Kha

4
2002
2003
2004

13672
13698
14100
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

11231
8176
8709
11438
8216
8812
12019
8934
9127
Tnh tng doanh thu
Th phn ca tng ca hng
Ch s pht trin ca tng ca hng
D bo xu hng bng cc phng php ti
V th

6912
7007
7128

2.1 Tnh tng doanh thu

- T Transform, chn Compute:

-T Analyze, chn Reports v Case Summaries:

DOANH S BN HNG

Nm
1

1995

Ca hng
A
12000

Ca hng
B
9800

Ca hng
C
7231

Ca hng
D
8210

vt: Triu ng
Ca hng
E
6772

Tng
cng
44013.00

Created by Do Duc Kha

5
2

1996

12100

9878

7643

8331

6789

44741.00

1997

12120

9910

7824

8497

6806

45157.00

1998

12346

9938

7891

8499

6824

45498.00

1999

13456

10100

8012

8545

6871

46984.00

2000

13423

11010

8027

8601

6885

47946.00

2001

13521

11200

8100

8643

6900

48364.00

2002

13672

11231

8176

8709

6912

48700.00

2003

13698

11438

8216

8812

7007

49171.00

2004

14100

12019

8934

9127

7128

51308.00

10

10

10

10

10

10

10
Total

10

2.2
Phn th trng
T Transform, chn Compute Variable. PartA (Phn th trng ca A)= (Doanh s
A/ Tng cng) x 100; tng t i vi B,C,D,E

TH PHN

VT: %

1
2

Nm
1995
1996

PARTA
27.26
27.04

PARTB
22.27
22.08

PARTC
16.43
17.08

PARTD
18.65
18.62

PARTE
15.39
15.17

1997

26.84

21.95

17.33

18.82

15.07

1998

27.14

21.84

17.34

18.68

15.00

1999

28.64

21.50

17.05

18.19

14.62

2000

28.00

22.96

16.74

17.94

14.36

2001

27.96

23.16

16.75

17.87

14.27

2002

28.07

23.06

16.79

17.88

14.19

2003

27.86

23.26

16.71

17.92

14.25

10

2004

27.48

23.43

17.41

17.79

13.89

10

10

10

10

10

10

Total

2.3 th th phn
-T Graphs, chn Sequence, la chn cc bin nh sau:

Created by Do Duc Kha

6

30

20
P
AR
TA
P
AR
TB
P
AR
TC
P
AR
TD
10

P
AR
TE

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

N
am

2.4
Bin ng ca ch s
- T Data, chn Select Cases, Range

Created by Do Duc Kha

7

( hoc: First Case: go nm 2000 va Last case: 2004)

thy c s bin ng ca cc ch s: t Transform, chn

Compute:
Ch s ca hng A ly nm 2000 lm gc= [Doanh thu ca hng A /13423
(Doanh thu ca A nm 2000)] * 100; tng t vi B, C, D, E
-

S bin ng ca cc ch s (gc nm 2000)

Created by Do Duc Kha

8

th v s bin ng ca cc ch s
112

110

108

106
CHISOA

104

CHISOB
102
CHISOC
100

CHISOD

98

CHISOE

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Nam

3 D bo doanh thu bng hi quy (Regression)

e hach toan doanh thu, xac nh chi ph va li nhuan cho

cac nam ke tiep, can phai tien hanh d bao cac ch
tieu tren. Ket qua d bao se cho biet xu hng bien ong
cua doanh thu, chi ph, li nhuan ra sao. No la can c quan
trong e xay dng cac ke hoach kinh doanh, muc tieu chi ph,
li nhuan, cac giai phap thc hien va phan bo ngan sach
cho cac bo phan.
m bo tnh khoa hc khach quan trong d bao, chung ta cn
kim nh mo hnh, xem xet tnh tng thch ca mo hnh c
dung trong d bao.
Gi thuyt t ra la: Th nht, cac gia tr d bao co an khp
vi cac gia tr thc te a thu thap hay khong? Th hai,
cac ch so thong ke cua mo hnh co at c o tin cay
va c chap nhan trong d bao hay khong? T hai cau hoi
tren, chung ta co cac gia thuyet:
H 0 : Mo hnh d bao khong phu hp vi cac d lieu
thu thap c
8

Created by Do Duc Kha

9
H 1 : Mo hnh d bao phu hp vi cac d lieu thu
thap c

S dng phng phap hi quy (Regression), phan tch phng sai

ANOVA trong phn mm thng ke SPSS.16 kim nh gi thuyt
nay. H s tng quan R cho bit mi tng quan gia cac bin, l
cng c o lng ln v lin h tuyn tnh gia hai bin, co tr s t -1 n +1;
h s xc nh R2 (R Square) la h s rt quan trng cho bit mo hnh
tuyn tnh nay n khp hay phu hp (Fitted) n mc nao vi
cac tr s ca cac im phan tan (hay bao nhiu phn trm ca tng
bnh phng ton phn c gii thch bng phng trnh hi quy d bo), co ga
tr t 0 n +1. H s R2 cang ln (tin ti 1) th ng thng hi quy
cang n khp vi cac im phan tan.
Nu R2: <0.3 : Mi quan h rt yu (khng c chp nhn)
0.3 R2 <0.5 : Mi quan h trung bnh (c chp nhn)
0.5 R2 <0.7: Mi quan h kh cht ch
0.7 R2 1 : Mi quan h rt cht ch
Hoi quy co quan he vi phan tch phng sai. V vay sau khi
xac nh c he so R2, can phai quyet nh xem mo hnh
d bao ma ta muon ap dung e mo ta hai bien so lien
he (bien thc te quan sat c va bien d bao),lieu co
tng thch khong. Kim nh F, da trn phn phi xc sut F(Fisher), c dng
kim nh mc ngha trong m hnh hi quy ny. Ngoai ra trong bang phan
tch phng sai ANOVA, chung ta cn quan tm n mc y ngha thong
ke (c ch bang tr so Sig.=Significance= p-value).
Quy lut bc b:
Ho: 1=0
H1: 1#o
Bc b Ho nu F>Fk-1, n-k,. Trong k-1 la bc t do cua t s va n-k la bc t do cua mu
s (tra bng phn phi F, vi mc =0.05). Neu Sig ca F co tr so t nh
hn 0.05 en 0.01: co y ngha; Sig co tr so 0.01 hay nho hn:
rat co y ngha. Ca hai tr so nay cho phep ta bac bo gia
thuyet Ho v chp nhn gi thuyt H1. Theo o, ta co the ket luan
mo hnh d bao c quan h tuyn tnh v phu hp vi cac d
lieu thu thap c.
S dung SPSS, kim inh gia thuyt c tin hanh nh sau:
T bang s liu: Analyze
Regression
Curve Estimation

Created by Do Duc Kha

10

Chuyn
d liu
cac
ca hang

sang bin
phu thuc
(Dependent), chuyn
bin

nm sang Variable va chon

Time, chon
Linear, Display ANOVA Table.

Trong Save, chon:

10

Created by Do Duc Kha

11

Kt qua ca hang

A nh sau:
Model Summary

R Square

.945

.893

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate
.879

278.820

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of Squares

df

5178273.467

5178273.467

621926.933

77740.867

5800200.400

Mean Square

Sig.

66.609

.000

9
2

Ta co, h s R = 0.945; R la 0.893 cho bit m hinh d bao rt n khp vi cac d liu thu
thp c (R2 >0.7).
Sig = 0.000 < 0.05, cho bit tinh y nghia cua m hinh d bao.
F =66.609 > Fk-1, n-k,. = 5.12 (tra bang F vi 1 bc t do t, 9 bc t do mu, =0.05).

Nh vy ta bac bo gia thuyt Ho va chp nhn H1. Theo o, ta co th kt lun m hinh d

bao co quan h tuyn tinh va phu hp vi cac d liu thu thp c.
3.1 D bo: T bng tnh, chn Analyze
Estimation:

Regression

Curve

11

Created by Do Duc Kha

12

3.2 La chn m hnh d bo thng qua cc ch s

MODEL:

MOD_2.

Independent:

Time

Dependent Mth
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001
VAR00001

LIN
LOG
INV
QUA
CUB
COM
POW
S
GRO
EXP
LGS

Rsq

d.f.

Sigf

.893
.826
.581
.902
.914
.889
.829
.588
.889
.889
.889

8
8
8
7
6
8
8
8
8
8
8

66.61
38.01
11.09
32.36
21.38
64.15
38.92
11.41
64.15
64.15
64.15

.000
.000
.010
.000
.001
.000
.000
.010
.000
.000
.000

Upper
bound

b0

11665.7
11540.1
13690.0
11439.6
11848.3
11706.6
11588.1
9.5246
9.3679
11706.6
. 8.5E-05

b1

b2

b3

250.533
995.412
-2206.8
363.575 -10.277
1.0948 68.3164 -4.7632
1.0195
.0772
-.1718
.0193
.0193
.9808

Cc xu hng theo m hnh Quadratic (bc 2) v Cubic (bc 3) c kh nng tt

nht la chn m hnh d bo cho ca hng A

12

Created by Do Duc Kha

13

MODEL: MOD_3.
Dependent variable.. VAR00001

Method.. QUADRATI

Listwise Deletion of Missing Data

Multiple R
.94994
R Square
.90239
Adjusted R Square
.87450
Standard Error
284.39574
Analysis of Variance:

Regression
Residuals
F =

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

2
7

5234033.8
566166.6

2617016.9
80880.9

32.35641

Signif F =

.0003

-------------------- Variables in the Equation -------------------Variable

Time
Time**2
(Constant)
_

SE B

Beta

Sig T

363.575000
-10.276515
11439.583333

139.698210
12.376736
334.492596

1.371196
-.437458

2.603
-.830
34.200

.0353
.4338
.0000

Dependent variable.. VAR00001

Method.. CUBIC

Listwise Deletion of Missing Data

Multiple R
.95628
R Square
.91447
Adjusted R Square
.87171
Standard Error
287.54344

13

Created by Do Duc Kha

14
Analysis of Variance:
DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

3
6

5304113.0
496087.4

1768037.7
82681.2

Regression
Residuals
F =

21.38379

Signif F =

.0013

-------------------- Variables in the Equation -------------------Variable

Time
Time**2
Time**3
(Constant)

SE B

Beta

Sig T

1.094794
68.316434
-4.763209
11848.266667

418.293581
86.279786
5.173787
558.061492

.004129
2.908140
-2.039458

.003
.792
-.921
21.231

.9980
.4586
.3927
.0000

Cua hang A
15000

14000

13000

12000

Observed
Quadratic

11000

Cubic
0

10

12

Sequence

Dng m hnh Quadratic d bo doanh s ca ca hng A (tng t

i vi B,C,D,E). T Save, chn nh sau (s 13 l s th t tng ng vi
nm cn d bo 2007, c th thay th bng cch g nm 2007 vo
Observation)

D bo
doanh s
bn ca
ca hng A
Giai on:
1995 - 2007
(M hnh
Nm

Gi tr

Quadratic, tin cy 95%)

Gi tr
Sai s
Khong tin

Khong tin

14

Created by Do Duc Kha

15
thc t
12000
12100
12120
12346
13456
13423
13521
13672
13698
14100

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

d bo
11793
12126
12438
12729
13001
13251
13481
13690
13879
14048
14195
14323
14429

cy di
10937
11365
11706
11994
12256
12507
12746
12959
13119
13192
13157
13011
12762

207.12
-25.63
-317.82
-383.46
455.45
171.92
39.94
-18.49
-181.36
52.32

cy trn
12648
12886
13169
13465
13745
13995
14216
14422
14640
14903
15234
15634
16096

17000
16000
15000

14000
13000
CuahangA
12000

Dubao

11000

Khoangtincay duoi

10000

Khoangtincay tren
1995

1997
1996

1999
1998

2001
2000

2003
2002

.
2004

.
.

Nam

3.3 Phn tch cc xu hng bng hi quy bi

3.3.1 Tuyn tnh:
- T Analyze, chn Regression v Linear

15

Created by Do Duc Kha

16

D bo doanh s bn ca hng A
(m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh)
Doanh
Nm
s
D bo
Sai s
1995
12000
11916
84
1996
12100
12167
-67
1997
12120
12417
-297
1998
12346
12668
-322
1999
13456
12918
538
2000
13423
13169
254
2001
13521
13419
102
2002
13672
13670
2
2003
13698
13920
-222
2004
14100
14171
-71
2005
14422
.
2006
14672 .
2007
14923 .

16

Created by Do Duc Kha

17

15000

th d bo doanh s bn ca
Cua han
hng
Ag A

14000

13000

12000
Doanh so ban
11000

Du bao (tuyen tinh)

0

10

12

14

Sequence

3.3.2 Ch s chu k
-Ch s chu k = (Gi tr quan st/gi tr d bo) x 100
- T Transform, chn Compute:

Thit lp gi thit mnh v yu trong d bo da vo ch s chu k

Gi thit yu: Cho cc ch s chu k cc nm 2005, 2006, 2007 cc s tng ng l:
0.98; 0.99; 1.0
Gi thit mnh: Cc ch s chu k tng ng cc nm l :1.01; 1.02; 1.04

Ch s chu k, ch s chu k yu v mnh

17

Created by Do Duc Kha

18

d bo ta da vo ch s chu k (yu v mnh)

D bo doanh s bn ca hng A vi hai gi thit: yu, mnh

VT: triu ng

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Total

Nm

Ca hng
A

D bo
doanh s
A

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

12000
12100
12120
12346
13456
13423
13521
13672
13698
14100
.
.
.

11916
12167
12417
12668
12918
13169
13419
13670
13920
14171
14422
14672
14923

13

10

13

D bo
(Gi thit yu)

D bo
(Gi thit mnh)

12012
12100
12112
12342
13456
13417
13515
13669
13710
14101
14157
14536
14914

12012
12100
12112
12342
13456
13417
13515
13669
13710
14101
14544
14922
15430
13

13

18

Created by Do Duc Kha

19
3.3.3 Ma, v v h s ma, v
DOANH S BN HNG CA CNG TY A TI LT
Nm
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2001
137627
164548
172205
196331
239003
300815
396014
384465
286591
243101
175754
181455

Nm
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2002
135165
173248
178819
196753
252438
298663
385884
406249
257455
244978
178119
183595

Nm
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2003
150638
167629
173452
191509
241055
283725
371881
393863
247583
243764
169726
192086

vt: 1000 ng
Nm 2004
1
136190
2
174683
3
168804
4
208947
5
253654
6
298351
7
395684
8
417447
9
299373
10
284733
11
202907
12
222009

-Xc nh h s ma, v:
T Analyze, chn Time series v Seasonal Decomposition:

MODEL:

MOD_1.

Results of SEASON procedure for variable DSO.

Multiplicative Model. Equal weighted MA method.

DATE_
JAN 2001
FEB 2001
MAR 2001
APR 2001
MAY 2001
JUN 2001
JUL 2001
AUG 2001
SEP 2001
OCT 2001

DSO
137627.0
164548.0
172205.0
196331.0
239003.0
300815.0
396014.0
384465.0
286591.0
243101.0

Moving
averages
.
.
.
.
.
.
239825.8
239620.6
240345.6
240896.8

Ratios
(* 100)
.
.
.
.
.
.
165.126
160.447
119.241
100.915

Period = 12.

Seasonal Seasonally Smoothed

factors
adjusted
trend- Irregular
(* 100)
series
cycle component
57.558 239108.7 233052.8
1.026
72.390 227308.2 233183.6
.975
73.865 233133.8 233494.7
.998
82.421 238206.1 235475.4
1.012
103.057 231913.6 238566.5
.972
121.661 247257.5 240669.8
1.027
160.137 247296.7 243422.9
1.016
168.900 227628.9 244108.6
.932
107.245 267229.1 246559.6
1.084
102.237 237781.5 243262.1
.977

19

Created by Do Duc Kha

20
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
_

2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004

175754.0
181455.0
135165.0
173248.0
178819.0
196753.0
252438.0
298663.0
385884.0
406249.0
257455.0
244978.0
178119.0
183595.0
150638.0
167629.0
173452.0
191509.0
241055.0
283725.0
371881.0
393863.0
247583.0
243764.0
169726.0
192086.0
136190.0
174683.0
168804.0
208947.0
253654.0
298351.0
395684.0
417447.0
299373.0
284733.0

240931.9
242051.5
241872.2
241028.0
242843.3
240415.3
240571.8
240768.8
240947.2
242236.6
241768.3
241321.1
240884.1
239935.5
238690.7
237523.8
236491.6
235668.9
235567.8
234868.3
235575.9
234371.9
234959.8
234572.4
236025.6
237075.5
238294.3
240277.9
242243.3
246559.1
249973.2
252738.3
255231.8
.
.
.

72.948
74.965
55.883
71.879
73.636
81.839
104.933
124.046
160.153
167.708
106.488
101.515
73.944
76.518
63.110
70.574
73.344
81.262
102.329
120.802
157.860
168.050
105.373
103.918
71.910
81.023
57.152
72.700
69.684
84.745
101.472
118.047
155.029
.
.
.

Moving
DATE_
DSO averages
NOV 2004 202907.0
.
DEC 2004 222009.0
.

Ratios
(* 100)
.
.

73.466
77.063
57.558
72.390
73.865
82.421
103.057
121.661
160.137
168.900
107.245
102.237
73.466
77.063
57.558
72.390
73.865
82.421
103.057
121.661
160.137
168.900
107.245
102.237
73.466
77.063
57.558
72.390
73.865
82.421
103.057
121.661
160.137
168.900
107.245
102.237

239231.0
235464.7
234831.3
239326.4
242088.0
238718.1
244950.1
245488.7
240970.9
240526.5
240061.5
239617.4
242450.2
238241.6
261713.5
231564.3
234822.0
232355.6
233904.7
233210.3
232226.5
233193.1
230856.5
238430.0
231025.9
249260.0
236612.1
241308.8
228529.5
253512.9
246130.0
245232.2
247090.7
247156.4
279147.6
278502.5

240694.0
236847.4
237266.1
238444.5
240237.1
241671.7
242924.7
243061.4
242217.2
240972.3
240432.6
240293.8
242760.4
243803.8
244669.4
239817.9
236436.0
233255.0
233321.6
233049.1
232694.2
233042.9
233229.8
235723.1
237325.1
240310.5
238947.7
239664.7
239774.9
244044.3
245722.3
246978.6
250147.4
257520.1
268004.7
275714.5

.994
.994
.990
1.004
1.008
.988
1.008
1.010
.995
.998
.998
.997
.999
.977
1.070
.966
.993
.996
1.002
1.001
.998
1.001
.990
1.011
.973
1.037
.990
1.007
.953
1.039
1.002
.993
.988
.960
1.042
1.010

Seasonal Seasonally Smoothed

factors
adjusted
trend- Irregular
(* 100)
series
cycle component
73.466 276190.9 280927.6
.983
77.063 288089.5 284746.7
1.012

The following new variables are being created:

Name

Label

ERR_1
SAS_1
SAF_1
STC_1

Error for DSO from SEASON, MOD_1 MUL EQU 12

Seas adj ser for DSO from SEASON, MOD_1 MUL EQU 12
Seas factors for DSO from SEASON, MOD_1 MUL EQU 12
Trend-cycle for DSO from SEASON, MOD_1 MUL EQU 12
H s ma v
Seasonal
Factors (*100)
Thng

20

Created by Do Duc Kha

21
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

57.558
72.39
73.865
82.421
103.057
121.661
160.137
168.9
107.245
102.237
73.466
77.063

21

Created by Do Duc Kha

22

Doanh s c iu chnh theo s bin i ma, v:

500000

400000

300000

200000
DOANH SO BAN HANG
Dieu chinh
100000

theo mua
1

7 10 1

7 10 1

7 10 1

7 10

Thang

Xu hng chu k theo ma

22

Created by Do Duc Kha

23
500000

400000

300000

200000
DOANHSOBANHANG
Xu huong chu ky theo
100000

mua,vu
1

7 10

7 10

7 10

7 10

Thang

-D bo vi h s ma v
D bo = Xu hng x H s ma v
Nm
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005

Doanh
s
150638
167629
173452
191509
241055
283725
371881
393863
247583
243764
169726
192086
136190
174683
168804
208947
253654
298351
395684
417447
299373
284733
202907
222009

Thng

H s
ma

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3

0.576
0.724
0.739
0.824
1.031
1.217
1.601
1.689
1.072
1.022
0.735
0.771
0.576
0.724
0.739
0.824
1.031
1.217
1.601
1.689
1.072
1.022
0.735
0.771
0.576
0.724
0.739

Xu hng
tuyn tnh
207030
210367
213704
217041
220377
223714
227051
230388
233725
237062
240399
243735
247072
250409
253746
257083
260420
263757
267093
270430
273767
277104
280441
283778
287115
290451
293788

D bo
119249
152306
157927
178842
227209
272260
363509
389125
250553
242277
176693
187920
142313
181296
187518
211836
268493
320992
427616
456756
293478
283200
206124
218793
165378
210287
217109

23

Created by Do Duc Kha

24
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

0.824
1.031
1.217
1.601
1.689
1.072
1.022
0.735
0.771

297125
300462
303799
307136
310472
313809
317146
320483
323820

244831
309776
369723
491725
524387
336403
324123
235555
249665

500000

400000

300000

200000
D
O
AN
HS
OB
ANH
AN
G
100000

D
U
B
AO
1

11

11

Thang

II. PHNG PHAP NGHIN CU DUNG BANG CU HOI

2.1 Nghin cu s b va nghin cu chinh thc
Nghin cu s b c thc hin thng qua hai phng phap: inh tinh va inh lng.
Nghin cu s b inh tinh dung kham pha, iu chinh va b sung cac bin quan sat dung
o lng cac khai nim va cac yu t cu thanh nng lc canh tranh cua cac doanh
nghip. Nghin cu inh tinh nay c thc hin thng qua iu tra th nghim va phng
phap ly y kin chuyn gia.
Nghin cu s b inh lng c thc hin anh gia v tin cy va gia tri cua cac
thang o v nng lc canh tranh a c thit k.
Nghin cu chinh thc: c thc hin sau khi a iu chinh lai bang cu hoi, bang y kin
chuyn gia. Nghin cu nay c thc hin bng vic m rng cac i tng iu tra va m
rng thu thp cac y kin chuyn gia.
2.2 Xy dng thang o

Phng phap phn tich nhn t kham pha CFA (Confirmatory Factor Analysis) c s
dung anh gia gia tri cua thang o thay cho phng phap truyn thng MTMM
(Multitrait-Multimethod) do Churchill nghi [1]. Thang o nay c xy dng da trn c
s ly thuyt v cac yu t cu thanh nng lc canh tranh cua cac doanh nghip va cach thc
o lng no a c ap dung trn th gii. Trn c s nay, mt tp hp bin quan sat (thang
o nhap 1) c xy dng o lng cac bin tim n (cac khai nim nghin cu). Sau khi
nghin cu s b, iu chinh thang o nhap 1, thang o nhap 2 c thc hin nhm anh
gia tin cy cua thang o thng qua cac ky thut: 1) Phng phap KMO va h s tin cy
24

Created by Do Duc Kha

25

Cronbach alpha; 2) Phng phap phn tich yu t kham pha EFA (Exploratory Factor
Analysis). Sau khi kim inh tin cy cua thang o va cac bin cua bang hoi, mt cuc
nghin cu chinh thc c tin hanh nhm thu thp cac d liu.
2.2.1 anh gia tin cy cua thang o
2.2.1.1 Phng Phap KMO
Gi tr KMO (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) c dung o lng s ph hp ca mu nghin cu
va ln cua mi tng quan gia cac bin quan sat. H s KMO ln noi ln cac nhn t
c dung phn tich co tng thich cao hay thp va c chp nhn mc >0.7
2.2.1.2 H s tin cy Cronbach alpha va phng phap phn tich EFA
H s tin cy Cronbach alpha c s dung loai cac bin khng phu hp trc (con goi la
cac bin rac). H s Cronbach alpha c tinh theo cng thc:
k

k
(1
k 1

i =1

T2

2
i

2
) (trong o k la s bin quan sat trong thang o; la phng sai cua bin

quan sat th i va T 2 la phng sai cua tng thang o)

Cac bin co h s tng quan gia bin va tng (item-total correlation) nho hn 0.30 se bi
loai. Tiu chun chon thang o khi no co tin cy alpha t 0.60 tr ln [Nguyn inh Tho,
2007]. Phng phap phn tich EFA se tip tuc loai cac bin co trong s (factor loading) nho
hn 0.50.Phng phap trich EFA h s s dung la principal components, vi phep quay
promax va im dng khi trich cac yu t co tri ring (eigenvalue)=1, se phan anh cu truc
d liu chinh xac va thang o chp nhn khi tng phng sai trich c 50% [3].
Ta co bang d liu a lam sach nh sau (t 1 n 5 im; 310 mu; gm 5 bin: Nb1 n
Nb5):

25

Created by Do Duc Kha

26

Kim inh KMO:

T Analyze, chon Data Reduction, Factor

Trong Descriptives, chon KMO. Trong Extraction, chon method: Principal components, bm OK.
Kt qua KMO nh sau:

26

Created by Do Duc Kha

27
KMO and Bartlett's Test
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.

.842

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity

3.528E3

Approx. Chi-Square
df
Sig.

10
.000

Kim inh Cronbach Alpha

T Analyze, chon Scale, Reliability Analysis: chuyn Nb1-Nb5 sang Items, trong Statistics chon cac
the nh sau, nhn OK

Kim inh EFA

T Analyze, chon Data Reduction, Factor
Trong the Extraction, chon Method: Principal Axis Factoring va nhn continue
27

Created by Do Duc Kha

28

Trong the Rotation, chon Promax va nhn continue

Trong the Scores, chon save; Display va nhn continue

28

Created by Do Duc Kha

29

Cui cung nhn OK, kt qua EFA nh sau:

Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's
Alpha Based on
Cronbach's

Standardized

Alpha

Items

.983

N of Items
.990

Item-Total Statistics
Scale Mean if
Item Deleted

Scale Variance if Corrected Item- Squared Multiple Cronbach's Alpha

Item Deleted

Total Correlation

Correlation

if Item Deleted

Nb1

14.01

25.395

.975

.971

.977

Nb2

14.14

25.261

.964

.962

.979

Nb3

13.53

30.134

.970

.950

.980

Nb4

13.43

30.595

.967

.954

.982

Nb5

13.72

26.589

.972

.967

.976

Total Variance Explained

Initial Eigenvalues
Factor

Total

% of Variance

Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings

Cumulative %

4.810

96.201

96.201

.099

1.977

98.179

.040

.805

98.984

.036

.728

99.712

.014

.288

100.000

Total
4.763

% of Variance
95.254

Cumulative %
95.254

29

Created by Do Duc Kha

30
Total Variance Explained
Initial Eigenvalues
Factor

Total

% of Variance

Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings

Cumulative %

4.810

96.201

96.201

.099

1.977

98.179

.040

.805

98.984

.036

.728

99.712

Total
4.763

% of Variance
95.254

Cumulative %
95.254

Factor
1
Nb5

.981

Nb1

.979

Nb3

.977

Nb4

.974

Nb2

.968

Extraction Method:
Principal Axis Factoring.

Ta co Cronbach Alpha la 0.983 (>0.70); tng

quan gia bin va tng u ln hn 0.30, nho
nht la Nb2 (0.964). Tng phng sai trich
c la 96.254% (> 50%). Tng gia tri ring
Eigenvalues la 4.810 nghia la 4.810/5 bin =
96% phng sai c phn phi trong 5 bin.
Cac trong s Factor u ln hn 0.90, nho nht
la Nb2 0.968 (ln hn 0.50).
Nh vy ca 5 bin trn u c s dung trong
phn tich.

30