M.S.

THESIS PROPOSAL OF ARIN KKDOAN

MODELLING ANTIBIOTIC TRANSPORT AND MAPPING THE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK IN THE MARMARA REGION BY USING GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)

Boazii University Bebek-stanbul

1. INTRODUCTION

As human population increases, livestock farming has become more intensive for some decades (Venglovsky et al., 2009). Veterinary antibiotics (VAs), one type of the drugs approved for agriculture, are among the most widely preferred for animal health and management (Sarmah et al., 2006). A considerable quantity of VAs originates from increased number of large-scale animal feeding operations for swine, poultry, and cattle (Zhao et al., 2010). Antibiotics regarded as micropollutants affect both water quality and human health by transportation to surface waters via runoff. Thus, there has been an increased concern about the adverse effects of released antibiotics causing chemical pollution in the environment.

The primary objective of this proposed study is to investigate the transport of tetracycline, sulphonamide and fluoroquinolone antibiotic groups, which were analyzed in the soil samples collected from the Marmara region by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and modelling techniques. Moreover, the environmental risk of agricultural antibiotic runoff in the Marmara region will be mapped.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Antibiotics have been used for treating infectious diseases in animals since 1900s. In addition to therapeutic purposes, they are used for promotion of food animal growth, control and prevention of diseases. The antibiotic dosages vary from 3 to 220 g/Mg of feed according to animal type, size and growth stage. As can be seen from Table 1., animals utilize certain proportion of these dosages and rest of them enter the terrestrial environment as urine, faeces or manure excreted by them because they are poorly absorbed in the animal gut (Kumar et al., 2005).
Table 1. Proportion of Antibiotics Fed Excreted in Urine and Feces (Kumar et al., 2005)

The treatment of animals on pasture is direct release of veterinary antibiotics to environment. The most important indirect reason for contamination of water bodies such as rivers and lakes is surface runoff of manure applied to lands as soil fertilizer since many of antibiotics cannot be degraded in the manure (Lertpaitoonpan et al., 2009). Furthermore, manure is stored in the tanks systems for a period of time before dispersing on fields which may cause leaching through soil (Kim et al., 2010). Fresh manure production varies according to animal type and data on livestock manure production can be presented as Table-2. Table 2. Fresh manure production per 1000 lb live animal mass per day (ASAE Standards, 2003)
Animal Type Goat Beef Veal Parameter Total Manure Units * lb Mean Turkey Broiler Sheep Swine Horse Dairy Layer

86 58 62 84 40 41 51 64 85 47

Differences within species according to usage exist, but sufficient fresh manure data to list these differences was not found. Typical live animal masses for which manure values represent are: dairy, 1400 lb; beef, 800 lb; veal, 200 lb; swine, 135 lb; sheep, 60 lb; goat, 140 lb; horse, 1000 lb; layer, 4 lb; broiler, 2 lb; turkey, 15 lb; and duck, 3 lb. * All values wet basis Feces and urine as voided. Parameter means within each animal species are comprised of varying populations of data. Maximum numbers of data points for each species are: dairy, 85; beef, 50; veal, 5; swine, 58; sheep, 39; goat, 3; horse, 31; layer, 74; broiler, 14; turkey, 18; and duck, 6.

If application of manure to agricultural lands exceeds recommended values, antibiotics bring about significant environmental problems such as toxicity to soil flora and fauna also antibiotic resistance in aquatic and terrestrial environment (Sarmah et al., 2006). Liu et al. (2009) carried out seed germination test on filter paper and plant growth test in soil, soil respiration and phosphatase activity tests to evaluate phytotoxic efects of different types of antibiotics on plant growth and soil quality. The authors realized that these effects change depending on the antibiotic type and plant sensitivity. Venglovsky et al. (2009) observed that antibiotics which are strongly bound to soil and have low half-life value can remain in the soil longer than others. Thus, they have a chance to be degraded easily so contamination of surface water can be prevented. However, they insisted on that there was a concern for plants which could take up them. Another important drawback of antibiotics is occurrence of antibiotic resistance bacteria in terrestrial and aquatic media leading to untreatable human and animal diseases due to subsequent antibiotic ineffectiveness (Kim et al., 2010). Jorgensen and Halling-Sorensen (2000) have suggested that antibiotic resistant bacteria originate from excessive production and consumption of antibiotics and low concentrations are responsible
3

for this problem. More harmful bacteria come into existence so gene pool of microorganisms changes. Such kind of bacteria are irreversible also cannot be eliminated (Kumar et al., 2005). In order to protect the environment, the marketing of veterinary medicinal products is actively regulated in the European Union (EU) by Directive 2004/28/EC (Montforts, 2006). Moreover the antibiotics used for growth-promoting purposes were banned in Europe in 2006 (Kemper, 2008).

Several factors can affect the transportation of VAs in the environment. In addition to antibiotic and soil properties; weather and surface water flow conditions affect transport behaviour in terrestrial environments (Kumar et al., 2005). Kay et al. (2005) carried out some pilot studies to evaluate the transport of veterinary antibiotics in overland flow following the application of pig slurry to arable land by irrigating soil pilots. Some antibiotic types are detected in runoff samples greater than the others because they have lower organic carbonwater partitioning coefficient value.

Davis et al. (2006) conducted some rainfall simulation experiments for various types of antibiotics. After spraying soil surface with a solution containing antibiotics, runoff samples are collected and analyzed for aqueous and sediment antibiotic concentrations. They realized significant differences in two phases of antibiotic concentrations due to different pseudopartitioning coefficients (P-PC; ratio of sediment concentration to runoff concentration) of them. They stated that erosion control practices could be used to decrease agricultural runoff of antibiotics with high P-PC. Similarly, Kim et al. (2010) carried out rainfall simulated studies to evaluate the impact of different physicochemical properties of antibiotics on transport of them. They found that sorption and persistence characteristics of various antibiotics play role on runoff behaviour of aqueous and sediment phases of them.

Boxall

et

al.

(2002)

investigated

the

sorption

behaviour

of

sulphonamide,

sulfachloropyridazine by performing field and laboratory studies to assess the risk of surface water contamination. They found that sulfachloropyridazine is highly mobile in clay sites thereby it would easily be transported to surface waters due to its low sorption potential. In addition to sulphonamides, Blackwell et al. (2007) investigated surface run-off of tetracyclines and macrolides antibiotic groups originating from pig slurry in sandy loam soil under field conditions. They realize that manure management practices, the nature of the land and climate conditions play role in mass loss in runoff.
4

Fate and transport processes of pollutants are important to evaluate environmental effects on the subsurface and surface waters since they facilitate the understanding of mobility and degradation processes of pollutants to control environmental pollution and develop water management practices (Joyce et al., 2010). Thanks to modelling, contamination pathways and sources of pollutant contamination in the landscape are identified thereby pollutant concentrations are estimated at any point to assess the pollutant mitigation strategies to protect water resources from contamination (Blenkinsop et al., 2008).

There are many models different from one another in terms of representing hydrological processes and objectives. They can simulate surface runoff pollution or leaching of pollutants through subsurface (Branger et al., 2009). Basically, models can be categorized into two classes: analytical and numerical models. In analytical modelling, there is few input data since more assumptions are done to simply the initial and boundary conditions, flow conditions, porous media, as well as physical and (bio)chemical processes of the simulated pollutants. Therefore analytical models are easy to use and compute. On the other hand, numerical models can overcome more complex contaminant transport issues (Chu and Marino, 2007). However, they require more input data and limited availability of input data sometimes hinder mathematical models (Schriever and Liess, 2007).

The models studied in the literature for evaluating pesticide transport in surface runoff are plentiful. On the other hand, modeling studies for antibiotics are scarce. Kay et al. (2005) state the fact that a number of models such as PRZM, PELMO and GLEAMS recommended by FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) could be used for veterinary medicines since their physicochemical properties is similar to that of pesticides. Huber et al. (1998) developed a transport model for pesticide runoff from agricultural areas to surface waters in Germany. They used various spatial data related to climate, soil, and land use in addition to pesticide application rates to estimate runoff losses of pesticides from fields. As a result, they constituted runoff-susceptibility maps to determine the risk of runoff-losses of pesticides. However, inadequate reliable information regarding pesticide transport behaviour under site specific conditions caused limitation in the study.

Branger et al. (2009) developed a transport model namely PESTDRAIN to simulate pesticide transport in a subsurface tile-drained field. This model as a promising tool for agricultural

water management computes surface runoff and tile-drainage flow rates of pesticides by taking into account spatiotemporal variable pesticide concentrations.

Spatial or geo-referenced data are captured, made suitable for various purposes, processed and represented by Geographic Information System (GIS). GIS provides boundary conditions to environmental models as an essential tool. In GIS, there are basic concepts such as location, spatial distribution of pollution or relationship between two and basic elements such as spatial objects. GISs recognise, classify and manage various categories of these objects (rivers, lakes, forests, arable land) (Fedra, 1999).

In present day, urban environmental pollution has driven state and local authorities to take care of pollution issues. In one study; water, soil, air and noise pollutions are modelled through spatial analysis by processing water, soil, air pollution and noise assessment data in Prague urban areas. ArcGIS extended by modelling tools developed internally in the ArcObjects environment and external modules developed with MapObjects are used for this purpose to provide an approach used by state and local authorities. All data are integrated within a GIS framework so more complex environmental analyses are performed to support the decision-making processes of urban planning (Matjck et al., 2006).

Many transport models coupled with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) application at the catchment and larger regional scales have been studied mostly for pesticides. Schriever and Liess (2007) mapped ecological risk of pesticide runoff from agricultural fields to surface waters in which aquatic communities exist by using run-off model interfaced with GIS. Pesticide use, and environmental characteristics of near-stream such as precipitation, topography, land use and soil characteristics were taken into account as input data to estimate run-off potential of pesticides based on mathematical modelling. They constitute various data maps displaying pesticide application rate (kg/ha), arable lands (km2), soil organic carbon (%), slope (%), soil texture (loamy or sandy) and maximum precipitation quantity (mm) in separate map layers belonged to European soils. Run-off potential of pesticides is mapped by evaluating transport behaviour of pesticides through the data map.

3. METHODOLOGY An antibiotic transport model will be developed for the Marmara Region by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). GIS based maps and data system including land use, land cover and antibiotic concentration obtained from previously analyzed in 30 soil and 8 manure samples will be used for creation of a conceptual model. In order to set up equations used in hydrologic (rainfall-runoff) and hydrodynamic (pollutant transport) models, the transport processes taking place in the model will be identified. ModelBuilder function embedded in ArcGIS will be worked to turn conceptual model into GIS-based simulation transport model. Thanks to establishment of spatially explicit calculation based on antibiotic use, precipitation, topography, land use and cover, the environmental risk of antibiotics in the Marmara region will be mapped.

3.1. Site Description

Marmara region is located in the northwest part of Turkey having approximately an area of 67,000 square kilometres and a total of more than 23 million people because of relatively high immigration (Doan et al., 2007). In the region; industry, commerce, tourism and agriculture have developed. Among the seven geographical regions, the region has lowest elevation. Whereas the planted area accounts for 30 % of the region, the forests cover around 11.5 % of the entire region. Forests are found in particularly Trakya region at high elevations. Wheat forms more or less half of the cultivated areas and rest of these areas consists of mainly sugar beets, corn and sunflower. Poultry raising and silk culture are widespread. Throughout the region, there is a dense stream network despite its small scale. The main rivers are Sakarya, Ergene, Susurluk, Meri and Biga. There are also many large and small natural and artificial lakes such as Bykekmece, Kkekmece, Durusu, znik, Sapanca, Uluabat and Manyas. The effects of black sea, terrestrial and mediterranean climates prevail in the region. The annual precipitation is between 500 and 1000 mm. Since terrestrial climate increases towards upcountry, the cold effect takes place rather than coastal zone

(http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marmara_B%C3%B6lgesi). In Fig. 1, the study area, sampling locations and precipitation stations are showed by means of ArcGIS.

Fig. 1. Map of the study area, sampling locations and precipitation stations

3.2. Modelling Antibiotic Transport

3.2.1. GIS as a tool

In order to modelling the antibiotic transport in Marmara region, a GIS-based model will be formulated. Geo-statistics methods will be used to build the relationship between the data available and the data be obtained from GIS-based maps. In the first part of modelling study; as can be summarized by Fig. 2, the aim of this study is to develop a conceptual model including physical and logical components. The processes taking place in this conceptual model will be brought into functional mode by using ModelBuilder component available in the GIS software and the model will be worked.

Fig. 2: Antibiotic Application

The use of Model Builder enables following operations: The results of model are monitored through ArcMap or ArcCatalog, Model simulates for variable parameters by changing parameter values, Desired number of data are added, Undesired process and data are removed.

3.2.2. Data Requirements

One of the most effective factors in the case of hydrological characterization of catchments is to determine flow direction. Catchments are identified on the base of cells by means of ArcGIS program scan pattern. Elevation and slope data are used with Flow Direction function available in ArcGIS. As a result, cellular based flow direction data will be obtained for all catchment.

Since precipitation quantity is used as input data in the study, first step is to convert precipitation into over-flow that calls as Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. In accordance with this purpose, Spatial Analyst component of ArcGIS software will be used. In addition to annual precipitation data, flow coefficients obtained from field and land use data belonging to subcatchments will be used to compute over-flow quantities originating from precipitation. Spatial analyst component will be used also for pollutant transport process which depends upon over-flow. This process will be identified as following equation: Runoff = Subcatchment Area x Annual Precipitation Quantity x Runoff Coefficient All these steps create the conceptual model which can be illustrated as Fig. 3. (1)

Fig. 3: Conceptual Model For the pollutant transport process depending upon surface flow planned to be modelled, Spatial Analyst and/or Particle Tracking tool taking place in Spatial Analyst will be used. Model will use flow quantity found in previous stage and the concentrations determined for each pollutant parameter. By doing this, the model will calculate pollutant load through empirical methods for any catchment. Following equation will be used for this purpose: Pollutant Load = Run-off x Estimated Mean Concentration (EMC) (2)

Urine and faeces originating from animal excretion is responsible of antibiotic concentration in soil. Due to antibiotics are poorly absorbed in the animal gut, residues can leach from dung into soil. Highest concentration in soil is calculated as following equation (Montforts, 1999):
10

(3)

Input Qproduct: dosage product used [kg.kg bw-1.d-1] S Cc: concentration a.i. in product [mgc.kg-1] S manimal: (averaged) body weight [kgbw.animal-1] P Ttreatment: duration of treatment [d] D Fexcreted urine: fraction excreted in urine [-] S/D Nanimalfield: stocking density animals [animal.ha-1] P RHOsoil: dry bulk density of soil [kg.m-3] Dc DEPTHfield: mixing depth with soil [m] Dc CONVarea field: conversion factor for the area of the field [m2.ha-1] Dc RHOsoliddung: density of dung solids [kg.m-3] Dc RHOwater: density of water [kg.m-3] Dc Fwaterdung: fraction water in dung [m3.m-3] P Fsoliddung: fraction solids in dung [m3.m-3] P Focdung: weight fraction of fraction organic carbon in dung [kg.kg-1] Dc Koc: partition coefficient organic carbon - water [dm3.kg-1] S/O Intermediate Results Qexcreted urine: quantity a.i. excreted with urine [mgc.animal-1] O Qleached dung: quantity a.i. leached with dung [mgc.animal-1] O Fexcreted dung: fraction excreted in dung [-] O/S Fleached dung: fraction leached from dung [-] O Kdung-water: partition coefficient solids and water in dung [m3.m-3] O Kpdung: partition coefficient solids and water in dung [dm3.kg-1] O Output PIECsoil: highest concentration in the soil [mgc.kgsoil-1] O 3.3. Mapping the environmental Risk: A GIS-based Approach

In the scope of this study, it is intended to build a semi-distributed model. In the case of fullydistributed or semi-distributed models, spatial parameters show different distributions from region to region. Thus, the effects of pollutants will vary depending on the geographical region in which they exist. With the aim of clarifying these differences, an Environmental Risk Map based on pollutant transport in Marmara region will be constituted.

11

For each compartment evaluated, after identifying catchment on cellular basis, a separate Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR) is calculated for every single cell, based on the PEC/PNEC concept (Montforts, 1999):

(4)

Input PECcomp predicted environmental concentration in compartment [mgc.kg-1] or [mgc.l-1] O PNECcomp predicted no effect concentration for compartment [mgc.kg-1] or [mgc.l-1] O Output RCRcomp risk characterisation ratio for compartment [-] O

Risk factors for every single cell will be illustrated by means of GIS based maps. Main parameters taken into consideration in the process of constituting these maps are cellular space, arable field area, distance from water resources, population/residential density, and slope, etc. Through the amount of arable fied area in a given grid cell (x,y), gLOAD per grid cell is calculated and the rule of proportion is applied as shown in Eq. (5) (OECD, 1998):

(5)

Astream

i,j

is the amount of arable land in the near upstream environment of a stream site

located in grid cell (x,y), Acell i,j is the amount of arable land in cell (x,y), Estream i,j is the theoretical size of the near-stream environment of the stream site located in grid cell (x,y), Ecell is the size of the grid cell (x,y). Runoff Potential (RP) can be transformed into the estimated median effect value of a grid cell. Data about catchment areas i.e. the frequency of stream sites gives the potential effect frequency per grid cell. The median effect value multiplied by the effect frequency forms an estimate of the environmental risk in a grid cell. Predicted environmental risk for study region is calculated as following equation by taking into account the grid cells where stream sites exist. (Schriever and Liess, 2007).
12

(6)

index i refers to one of the environmental risk classes Very low to Very high, mRiskcell(x,y) is the median (lower; upper) estimate of environmental risk for streams in grid cells that belong to risk class i, n is the number of investigated sites that are located in grid cells of risk class i.

4. PROBABLE OUTCOMES

Once it is built, the model will be run under different scenarios to account for the changes in the catchment area. Scenarios will be developed based on the application of 3 different types of antibiotics in various dosages, in different seasons on different types of soil. If the study is completed successfully: For Marmara region, a GIS based data set including analyzed antibiotics collected from various points, soil type, and land use data will be formed, Hydrological model exhibiting rainfall-runoff relationship in the catchment also thermodynamic and hydrodynamic models determining antibiotic transport will be built, The effects of land use on rainfall-runoff and antibiotic transport will be evaluated, The variables and parameters that affect antibiotic transport will be determined and significance levels will be researched, Besides determining the variables and parameters creating model, the correlations with each other will be clarified, Environmental Risk Map for Marmara region depending on antibiotic transport will be illustrated.

13

REFERENCES

Blackwell, P.A., Kay, P., Boxall, A.B.A, 2007. The dissipation and transport of veterinary antibiotics in a sandy loam soil, Chemosphere, 67, 292-299. Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H.J., Dubusi, I.G., Nolan, B.T., Hollis, J.M., 2008. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe. Environmental Pollution, 154, 219231. Boxall, A.B.A., Blackwell, P., Cavallo, R., Kay, P., Tolls, J., 2002. The sorption and transport of a sulphonamide antibiotic in soil systems. Toxicology Letters, 131, 1928. Branger, F., Tournebize, J., Carluer, N., Kao, C., Braud, I., Vauclin, M., 2009. A simplified modelling approach for pesticide transport in a tile-drained field: The PESTDRAIN model. Agricultural Water Management 96, 415-428. Chu, X., Marino, M.A., 2007. IPTM-CS: A windows-based integrated pesticide transport model for a canopyesoil system. Environmental Modelling & Software, 22 1316-1327. Davis, J. G., Truman, C. C., Kim, S. C., Ascough II, J. C., Carlson, K., 2006. Antibiotic Transport via Runoff and Soil Loss. Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 22502260. Doan, K., Celepolu, A., Aknclar, ., 2007. Trkiye 2007, Basn-Yayn ve Enformasyon Genel Mdrl, THA Trk Haberler Ajans. Fedra, K., 1999. Urban environmental management: monitoring, GIS, and modelling. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 23, 443-457. Halling-Sorensen, B., Nors Nielsen, S., Lanzky, P. F., Ingerslev, F., Holten Liitzhofl, H.C., Jorgensen, S.E., 1998. Occurrence, Fate and Effects of Pharmaceutical Substances in the Environment- A Review. Chemosphere, 36, 357-393. Huber, A., Bach, M., Frede H.G., 1998. Modelling pesticide losses with surface runoff in Germany, The Science of the Total Environment, 223, 177-191. Joyce, B.A., Wallender, W.W., Mailapalli, D.R., 2010. Application of pesticide transport model for simulating diazinon runoff in Californias central valley. Journal of Hydrology, 395, 7990. Kay, P., Blackwell, P.A., Boxall, A.B.A., 2005. Transport of veterinary antibiotics in overland flow following the application of slurry to arable land. Chemosphere, 59, 951959. Kemper K., 2008. Veterinary antibiotics in the aquatic and terrestrial environment, Ecological Indicators, 8, 1 13.

14

Kim, S-C., Davis, J.G., Truman, C.C., Ascough, J.C., Carlson, K., 2010. Simulated rainfall study for transport of veterinary antibiotics mass balance analysis. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 175, 836843. Kumar, K., Gupta, S.C., Chander, Y., Singh, A.K., 2005. Antibiotic use in agriculture and its impact on the terrestrial environment. Advances in Agronomy, 87, 1-53. Lertpaitoonpan, W., Ong, S.K., Moorman, T.B., 2009. Effect of organic carbon and pH on soil sorption of sulfamethazine. Chemosphere, 76, 558564. Liu, F., Ying, G.G., Tao, R., Zhao, J.L., Yang, J.F., Zhao, L.F., 2009. Effects of six selected antibiotics on plant growth and soil microbial and enzymatic activities. Environmental Pollution, 157, 16361642. Matjck, L., Engst, P., Jaour, Z., 2006. A GIS-based approach to spatio-temporal analysis of environmental pollution in urban areas: A case study of Pragues environment extended by LIDAR data, Ecological Modelling, 199, 261-277. Montforts, M.H.M.M., 1999. Environmental risk assessment for veterinary medicinal products, Part 1. Other than GMO-containing and immunological products, National Institu of Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Substances and Risk Assessment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. Montforts, M.H.M.M., 2006. Validation of the exposure assessment for veterinary medicinal products. Science of the Total Environment, 358, 121 136. OECD. Report of Phase 1 of the Aquatic Risk Indicators Project. Paris, France, Organisation For Economic Cooperation And Development; 1998. p. 2832. Sarmah, A.K., Meyer, M.T., Boxall, A.B.A, 2006. A global perspective on the use, sales, exposure pathways, occurrence, fate and effects of veterinary antibiotics (VAs) in the environment. Chemosphere, 65, 725759. Schriever, C.A., Liess, M., 2007. Mapping ecological risk of agricultural pesticide runoff. Science of the Total Environment, 384, 264279. Venglovsky, J., Sasakova, N., Placha, I., 2009. Pathogens and antibiotic residues in animal manures and hygienic and ecological risks related to subsequent land application. Bioresource Technology, 100, 53865391. Zhao, L., Dong, Y.H., Wang, H., 2010. Residues of veterinary antibiotics in manures from feedlot livestock in eight provinces of China. Science of the Total Environment, 408, 1069 1075. http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marmara_B%C3%B6lgesi

15