Probability

1
7. PROBABILITY
7.1.1 Sample Space and Events









Task A : Determine the number oI possible outcomes in the sample space and the event by listing the outcomes.
1. An experiment is conducted by rolling a Iair dice
once. II A is the event oI getting an even score,
(a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event A,
(b) determine the number oI possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event A.

Answer : (a)(i) S }

(a)(ii) A }

(b)(i) n(S)

(b)(ii) n(A)

2. In an experiment where a Iair coin is tossed twice,
HT represents an outcome where the Iirst toss
results in a head` and the second toss results in a
tail`. II B is the event oI obtaining at least one
tail`,
(a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event B,
(b) determine the number oI possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event B.

Answer : (a)(i) S

(a)(ii) B

(b)(i) n(S)

(b)(ii) n(B)

3. A card is picked randomly Irom the Iollowing
cards.



II C is the event oI obtaining vowel,
(a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C,
(b) determine the number oI possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C.

Answer : (a)(i) S

(a)(ii) C

(b)(i) n(S)

(b)(ii) n(C)

4. In an experiment, two numbers are randomly
chosen, the Iirst Irom set A 3 , 5 , 6| and the
second Irom set B 2 , 4 , 8}. II D is the event oI
getting a total score at least 10,
(a) express, in set notation, |Note : (x , y)
represents an outcome where x Z A and y Z B|
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event D,
(b) determine the number oI possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event D.

Answer : (a)(i) S

(a)(ii) D

(b)(i) n(S)

(b)(ii) n(D)

Answers: 1. S 1,2,3,4,5,6}; A 2,4,6}; n(S) 6; n(A) 3 2. S HH,HT,TH,TT}; B HT,TH,TT}; n(S) 4; n(B) 3
2. S H,E,B,A,T}; C E,A}; n(S) 5; n(C) 2 4. S (3,2),(3,4),(3,8),(5,2),(5,4),(5,8),(6,2),(6,4),(6,8)} ; n(S) 9
D (3,8),(5,8),(6,4),(6,8)} n(D) 4
H
E B A
T
a. Experiment is an activity that we carry out to observe a result.
b. Outcome is the result oI an experiment that we observed.
c. Sample space is set oI all the possible outcomes (or results) in an experiment
d. The sample space is denoted by the letter $.
e. Event is the set oI all the possible outcomes (or results) in the sample space that we wish to get.
I. An event can be denoted by any capital letters except $ .
g. n($) denotes the number oI possible outcomes in the sample space.
h n(A) denotes the number oI possible outcomes in the event A.
Probability

2

Task B: Determine the number possible outcomes in the sample space and the event without listing the outcomes.
1. A box contains 3 black balls, 2
green balls and 5 red balls. A
ball is drawn at random Irom
the box. II A represents the
event not getting the black
balls, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(A).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(A)

2. A box contains cards oI which
each card is written with an
alphabet Irom the word
TAMBAHAN`. A card is
drawn at random Irom the box.
II B represents the event oI
obtaining vowel card, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(B).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(B)

3. The table shows a set oI
numbers. A number is chosen at
random Irom the set.
10 11 15
17 22 19
16 25 18
II C represents the event oI
choosing number that is multiple
oI 5, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(C).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(C)

4. There are 14 Ians in a hall, each
controlled by a switch. It is
known that Iour Ians are spoilt.
Two switches are turned on at
random in an experiment.
Given that D is the event where
only one oI the two Ians works,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(D)

5. The letters Irom the word
SUKAN` are to be used to
Iorm a Iive-lettered code. All
the possible codes are written in
cards and put in a box. A card is
drawn Irom the box. II E
represents the event oI getting
code which has both the vowels
next to each other, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(E)

6. A box contains 7 blue marbles
and 5 yellow marbles where all
the marbles are oI the same size.
Two marbles are drawn Irom
the box randomly. II F is the
event getting two marbles oI the
same colour, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(F).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(F)

7. Four-digit numbers are to be
Iormed Irom the digits 2, 4, 6, 7
and 9 without repetitions oI
digits. All the numbers that can
be Iormed are written in small
pieces oI papers and put into a
hat. One number is chosen at
random Irom the hat. II G is the
event getting even number,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(G).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(G)

8. A 4-member committee oI a
club is chosen Irom 4 boys and
3 girls. Each oI the possible
4-member committee Iormed is
written on a card and put into a
box. One oI the cards is drawn
at random Irom the box. II H
represents the event oI
obtaining a committee that has
equal number oI boys and girls,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(H).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(H)

9. Code words are to be Iormed
using all the letters oI the word
COLUMN`. Each oI the
possible code words is written
in a small strip oI paper and put
into a bag. One oI the code
words is chosen Irom the bag at
random. II L represents the
event oI obtaining code word
that begins with a consonant,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(L).

Answers : (a) n(S)

(b) n(L)

Answers : 1. (a) 10 (b) 7 2. (a) 8 (b) 3 3. (a) 9 (b) 3 4. (a) 91 (b) 40 5. (a) 120 (b) 48 6. (a) 66 (b) 31
7. (a) 120 (b) 72 8. (a) 35 (b) 18 9. (a) 720 (b) 480
Probability

3

7.1.2 Probability of an Event









Task A : Determine the Probability oI Simple Events.
1. A bag contains 7 red balls, 5
green balls and 6 pink balls. A
ball is picked at random. Find
the probability that a red ball is
picked.

Answer :

R Event red ball is picked
n(R) 7,
n($) 18

18
7
) (
) (
) (

$ n
R n
R P


2. A card is picked randomly Irom
a pack oI cards which contains
4 red cards and 6 yellow cards.
Find the probability that a
yellow card is picked.

Answer :

Event oI picking yellow card

n()

n($)

) (
) (
) (
$ n
n
P

5
3

3. A letter is selected at random
Irom the word PHYSICS`.
Find the probability oI selecting
letter $.

Answer :

Event oI selecting letter $

n()

n($)

) (
) (
) (
$ n
n
P


7
2

4. A Iair dice is Ilipped once. What
is the probability oI obtaining a
score greater than 4?

Answer :

B Event oI obtaining a score
greater than 4.

n(B)

n($)







3
1

5. Identical cards numbered Irom
20 to 40, are put in a bag. A
card is drawn randomly Irom
the bag. Find the probability
that the number on the card is a
prime number.













21
4

6. Each oI the letters Irom the
word TAMBAHAN` is written
on identical cards and then put
in a box. II a card is drawn at
random Irom the box, calculate
the probability that the card
drawn is a vowel.












8
3


(a) The probability that an event occurs is represented by P()
(b) By classical deIinition,

$ n
n
$ in outcomes of number
in outcomes of number
P , where 1 0 A A P
(c) II P() 0, then the event is sure to Iail (or is a certain impossibility).
(d) II P() 1. then the event is sure to succeed (or is an absolute surety)
(e) The probability that an event does not occur is represented by P() where P() 1 P()
Probability

4

7. A box containing all the letters
oI the word PROBABILITY`
written on identical cards. II
one card is drawn at random
Irom the box, Iind the
probability that the card drawn
shows a consonant.







11
7

8. A card is drawn at random Irom a
bag which contains 26 identical
cards written with all the
diIIerent letters oI the alphabet.
Find the probability that the card
drawn shows a letter Irom the
word BAHASA`.







13
2

9. A Iair dice is rolled twice.
Calculate the probability oI
getting numbers with a sum
more than 8.










18
5


Task B : Determine the probability oI events involving the idea oI permutation and combination.
1. All the diIIerent three-digit numbers Iormed Irom
the digits 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repetition are
written in small pieces oI papers and then put in a
hat.
(a) Determine the total number oI three-digit
numbers in the hat.
(b) II one oI the number is drawn randomly Irom
the hat, calculate the probability that the
number is less than 300.







(a) 24 (b)
4
1

2. Six-letter codes are Iormed by using all the letters in
the word HITUNG`. Each code is written on
identical ping pong ball and placed in a box.
(a) Determine the total number oI diIIerent six-letter
codes contained in the box.
(b) II one oI the ping pong balls is drawn randomly,
Iind the probability that the ping pong ball is
written with the code that ends with vowel.








(a) 720 (b)
3
1

3. A Iour-member committee is to be Iormed Irom a
group oI 7 male and 6 Iemale candidates.
(a) Determine the total number oI diIIerent
Committees that can be Iormed.
(b) II one oI the possible committees in (a) is to
be selected at random, Iind the probability that
the committee selected is made up oI 2 males
and 2 Iemales.







(a) 715 (b)
143
63

4. A combination oI Iour letters is to be Iormed by
choosing letters Irom the word PERANCIS`.
(a) Determine the total number oI diIIerent
combinations that can be Iormed.
(b) II one oI the possible combinations in (a) is to be
picked, calculate the probability that the
combination does not have vowel.








(a) 70 (b)
14
1

Probability

5
7.2 Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events












Task A : Determine whether events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
1. A Iair coin is Ilipped twice. Events A and B are
deIined below :
A Event where both Ilips show heads`
B Event where the two Ilips result in at least a
tail`
State, with a reason, whether events A and B are
(a) mutually exclusive events,
(b) exhaustive events.







(a) Yes, because . (b) Yes, because .
2. A Iair dice is rolled. Event C is the event a score oI
less than 6` and event D is the event a score oI more
than 2`. State, with a reason, whether events C and D
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.










(a) No, because . (b) Yes, because .
3. The sample space S is given by
S x : 0 x 21, x is an integer }.
Event X and Y are deIined as Iollows:
X x : x are even integers }
Y x : x are integers which are multiple oI 3 }
By Iinding P(X), P(Y) and P(X Y), determine
whether events X and Y
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.













(a) No, because . (b) No, because .
4. The sample space, S, and the events V and W are
deIined as Iollows :
S Set oI code words Iormed Irom all the letters oI
the word MAS` without repetition
V Set oI code words that begin and end with
consonants
W Set oI code words that begin with a vowel and
end with a consonant.
By Iinding P(V), P(W) and P(V W), determine
whether events V and W
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.










(a) Yes, because . (b) No, because .
(a) II events A and B are mutually exclusive, then only one or the other event can occur at time.
(b) Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events iI one oI the Iollowing conditions happens :
(i) iI A Y B } ( or A Y B X ) or
(ii) iI n(A Y B) 0 or
(iii) iI P(A Y B ) 0 or
(iv) iI P(A B) P(A) P(B)
(c) Two events A and B are exhaustive events iI one oI the Iollowing conditions happens :
(i) iI A B S
(ii) iI n(A B) n(S) or
(iii) iI P(A B ) 1
Probability

6
Task B : Determine the probability oI the events below.
1. A box contains 5 red, 3 yellow
and 4 green marbles. A marble
is drawn randomly Irom the
box. Find the probability that
the colour oI the marble is
yellow or green.









12
7

2. A card is picked randomly Irom
the cards below.


Find the probability oI getting a
card with a consonant or a letter
O.








4
3

3. On a rack, there are 6 Science
books, 12 Mathematics books
and 2 History books. A book is
to be chosen randomly Irom the
rack. Calculate the probability
oI choosing a Science book or a
Mathematics book.








10
9

4. A number is chosen at random
Irom the set 1, 2, . , 20}.
Find the probability that the
number is a multiple oI 4 or a
multiple oI 7.











20
7

5. A bag contains 5 blue pens, 2 red
pens and 1 green pen. A pen is
picked at random Irom the bag.
Find the probability oI getting a
blue or a green pen.











4
3

6.

A card is picked randomly Irom
the cards above. Find the
probability oI getting a card
with digit 3 or digit 5.










7
5

7. Nine cards are written with the
letters oI the word STATISTIC.
II a card is selected randomly,
Iind the probability that the card
has the letter T or a vowel.











3
2

8. Muthu chooses a number
randomly Irom a set S where
S x : 10 A x A 20 , x is an
integer}.
Find the probability that the
number is a prime number or a
multiple oI 5.









11
7

9. A Iair dice is rolled once. Find
the probability that the dice
shows an odd number or a
number more than 5.












3
2

O U T C O M E S
3 4 3 5 3 5 6
Probability

7
7.3 Probability of Independent Events

















Task A : Determine the probability oI the events below.
1. A Iair coin and a Iair dice are
tossed simultaneously.
Determine the probability oI
obtaining a tail and a number
greater than 4.

Answer :
A getting a tail
B getting a number greater
than 4

2
1
) ( P
,
3
1
) ( B P


6
1
3
1
2
1
) ( ) (
) ( ) and (

L
L
Y
B P P
B P B P

2. The probabilities oI Thomas
passing in the English test and
Science test are
3
2
and
4
1

respectively. Calculate the
probability that he will pass in
both test.









6
1

3. In a certain region, it is observed
that the probability that will rain
in a day is
5
2
. Find the
probability that it will rain Ior 2
days.










25
4

4. The probability that a deIective
bulb produced Irom a Iactory is
7
2
. II Jack buys two bulbs, Iind
the probability that he will get
two good bulbs.








49
25

5. The probability that a shooter
hits the target is
5
3
. For 2 shots,
Iind the probability that he will
Iail to hit the target both times.









25
4

6. There are 9 pens in a pencil box
oI which 5 are red. II two pens
are chosen randomly, one by
one with replacement, Iind the
probability that both pens are
not red.









81
16

(a) II events A and B are independent, then the outcome oI event A does not aIIect the occurrence oI the
outcome oI event B and vice versa.
(b) II A and B are two independent events, then P(A Y B) P(A) L P(B).
(c) II A, B and C are three independent events, then P(A Y B Y C) P(A) L P(B) L P(C)
(d) Examples oI independent events A and B:
(i) Case 1 : Experiment : Tossing a Iair coin and rolling a Iair dice.
A Event oI getting head`
B Event oI getting prime number
(ii) Case 2 : Experiment : Rolling a Iair dice twice.
A Event oI getting even number Irom the Iirst roll
B Event oI getting even number Irom the second roll
(iii) Case 3 : Experiment : A coin is tossed and a card is picked
A Event oI getting tail`
B Event oI picking a diamond card
(e) A tree diagram is very useIul in helping us to answer questions that involve independent events
Probability

8
Task B : Determine probability by using Tree Diagram.
1. Ali shoots two arrows. The probability oI Ali hitting
the bull`s eye with each shot is
5
3
. By drawing a tree
diagram, Iind the probability oI Ali hitting the bull`s
eye at least once.

Answer :
A event hitting the bull`s eye
A
/
event not hitting the bull`s eye












P(hit bull`s eye at least once)
P(AA) P(AA
/
) P(A
/
A)

5
3
5
2
5
2
5
3
5
3
5
3


25
21

2. There is a 30 chance that Leela will cycle to school
in a school day. By drawing a tree diagram, Iind the
probability that out oI any two school days, Leela
will cycle to school in only one day.

Answer :
C event cycling to school
C
/
event not cycling to school




















0.42
3. A box contains 4 red cards and 3 green cards. Two
cards are drawn at random, one aIter another
without replacement. By drawing a tree diagram,
Iind the probability that both the cards are oI
diIIerent colour.
















7
4

4. Box A contains 1 black marble and 5 white marbles.
Box B contains 4 black marbles and 3 white
marbles. A marble is picked at random Irom box A
and box B. By drawing a tree diagram, Iind the
probability that both oI the marbles are oI the same
colour.















42
19

A
A
/
A
A
A
/
A
/
5
3

5
3

5
3

5
2

5
2

5
2

first shot
second shot
possible
outcomes
AA
AA
/
A
/
A
A
/
A






first day second day
possible
outcomes
Probability

9

5 A bag contains 5 black marbles and 3 white marbles.
Two marbles are drawn at random, one aIter another
Irom the bag without replacement. By drawing a tree
diagram, Iind the probability that both oI the marbles
are oI the same colour.


















28
13

6. Envelop P contains 5 cards labeled as X, X, Y,
Y, Y whereas envelop Q contains 6 cards
labeled as X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y. A card is picked at
random Irom envelop P and envelop Q. By
drawing a tree diagram, Iind the probability that
both oI the cards are oI diIIerent letters.















30
13

7. A Iair dice is rolled three times. By drawing a tree
diagram, Iind the probability that the number 4 is
obtained only once.






















72
25

8. The probability oI obtaining a spoilt orange Irom a
basket is
4
1
. II three oranges are selected, Iind the
probability that only an orange is spoilt.





















64
27

Probability

10
7.4 Past Years` Actual SPM Questions

Task : Answer all the questions below.
1. SPM 2004 (No.24 / Paper 1)
A box contains 6 white marbles and black
marbles. II a marble is picked randomly Irom the
box, the probability oI getting a black marble is
5
3
. Find the value oI . |3 mars|
















9
2. SPM 2005 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
The Iollowing table shows the number oI coloured
cards in a box
Colour Number of Cards
Black 5
Blue 4
Yellow 3

Two cards are drawn at random Irom the box. Find
the probability that both cards are oI the same
colour. |3 mars|











66
19

3. SPM 2006 (No. 23 / Paper 1)
The probability that Hamid qualiIies Ior the Iinal oI a
track event is
5
2
while the probability that Mohan
qualiIies is
3
1
. Find the probability that
(a) both oI them qualiIy Ior the Iinal,
(b) only one oI them qualiIies Ior the Iinal.
| 3 mars|
















(a)
15
2
(b)
15
7

4. SPM 2008 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
The probability oI Sarah being chosen as a
school preIect is
5
3

while the probability oI Aini
being chosen is
12
7
. Find the probability that
(a) neither oI them is chosen as a school
preIect,
(b) only one oI them is chosen as a school
preIect. |4 marks|













(a)
6
1
(b)
60
29

Probability

11
7.5 Enhanced Exercise with Questions of SPM Format

Task : Answer all the questions below.
1. A bag contains 6 blue marbles and red marbles. II
a marble is picked randomly Irom the bag, the
probability oI picking a red marble is
3
5
. Find the
value oI .











9
2. Two dice, one white and one black, are rolled
together. Calculate the probability that the score
on the white dice is twice the score on the black
dice.











12
1

3. A box contains 40 marbles. Some are green and
some are red. II a marble is drawn at random Irom
the box, the probability that a green marble drawn
is
2
5
. Calculate
(a) the number oI red marbles in the box,
(b) the number oI red marbles that have to be
added to the box such that the probability to
draw a red marble becomes
23
15
.




















(a) 24 (b) 6
4. Bag I contains 2 blue marbles and 6 black marbles
while bag II contains 3 blue marbles and 4 black
marbles. II a marble is chosen at random Irom each
bag, calculate the probability that
(a) both the marbles are black,
(b) the marble Irom bag I is blue and the marble
Irom bag II is black.
(c) At least one oI the marbles chosen is black.























(a)
7
3
(b)
7
1
(c)
28
25

Probability

12

5. Two six-Iaced unbiased dice are rolled together.
Calculate the probability that
(a) the sum oI two numbers is 8.
(b) The diIIerence oI two numbers is 5,
(c) The sum oI two numbers is 8 or The
diIIerence oI two numbers is 5.

















(a)
36
5
(b)
18
1
(c)
36
7

6. In a soccer match between team A and team B, the
result can be a draw or a win Ior team A or a win Ior
team B. The probability that team A and team B will
win are
1 1
and
3 2
respectively. In two matches,
calculates the probability that team A will win once
and draw once.
















18
1

7. A marble is drawn at random Irom a box containing
3 black marbles, 4 green marbles and 5 white
marbles.
(a) What is the probability oI drawing a black or a
green marble?
(b) What is the probability oI drawing neither a
black nor a white marble?


















(a)
12
7
(b)
3
1

8. Box C contains marbles oI which 4 are black and 6
are yellow. Two marbles are drawn at random, one
aIter another with replacement. Determine the
probability that
(a) both the marbles are black.
(b) the two marbles in diIIerent colour.
(c) at least one oI the marbles is yellow.


















(a)
25
4
(b)
25
12
(c)
25
21

Probability

13

9. At Halim`s shop, there are 5 reIrigerators, P, Q, R,
$ and % and 4 washing machines, , B, C and D. II
a reIrigerator and a washing machine are chosen at
random, calculate the probability that reIregerators
P or Q and washing machine are chosen.










10
1

10. The probability oI obtaining the number 4 when a
bias dice is rolled is
1
4
. II the bias dice is rolled
simultaneously with a Iair dice, Iind the probability
oI obtaining 4 on only one oI the dice.










3
1

11. There are 3 reIerence books and 6 novels arranged
on shelI A while 7 reIerence books and 5 novels are
arranged on shelI B. II a book is chosen at random
Irom each shelI, Iind the probability that a
reIerence book is chosen Irom shelI A and a novel
is chosen Irom shelI B.








36
5

12. A box contains 9 cards. Each card is written with a
letter Irom the word GEOGRAPHY`. II two
cards are drawn at random, one aIter the other,
without replacement, calculate the probability that
a letter G` and a vowel are drawn.









6
1

13. Bag A contains 4 cards numbered 3, 5, 6 and 7.
Bag B contains 5 cards numbered 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
A card is drawn at random Irom each bag. Find
the probability that both cards have
(a) even numbers,
(b) the same numbers.











(a)
20
3
(b)
20
3

14.

The diagram above shows 6 pieces oI numbered
cards. II one card is chosen at random, Iind the
probability that the number chosen is
(a) a multiple oI 3 and a Iactor oI 24,
(b) a prime number or an even number.










(a)
3
1
(b)
6
5


12 15 4 5 2 6